Very high-resolution digital elevation models: are multi-scale-derived variables ecologically relevant?

1. Digital elevation models (DEMs) are often used in landscape ecology to retrieve elevation or first derivative terrain attributes such as slope or aspect in the context of species distribution modelling. However, DEM-derived variables are scale-dependent and, given the increasing availability of very high-resolution (VHR) DEMs, their ecological relevancemust be assessed for different spatial resolutions. 2. In a study area located in the Swiss Western Alps, we computed VHR DEMs-derived variables related to morphometry, hydrology and solar radiation. Based on an original spatial resolution of 0.5 m, we generated DEM-derived variables at 1, 2 and 4 mspatial resolutions, applying a Gaussian Pyramid. Their associations with local climatic factors, measured by sensors (direct and ambient air temperature, air humidity and soil moisture) as well as ecological indicators derived fromspecies composition, were assessed with multivariate generalized linearmodels (GLM) andmixed models (GLMM). 3. Specific VHR DEM-derived variables showed significant associations with climatic factors. In addition to slope, aspect and curvature, the underused wetness and ruggedness indices modelledmeasured ambient humidity and soilmoisture, respectively. Remarkably, spatial resolution of VHR DEM-derived variables had a significant influence on models' strength, with coefficients of determination decreasing with coarser resolutions or showing a local optimumwith a 2 mresolution, depending on the variable considered. 4. These results support the relevance of using multi-scale DEM variables to provide surrogates for important climatic variables such as humidity, moisture and temperature, offering suitable alternatives to direct measurements for evolutionary ecology studies at a local scale.

Impôts et dépenses publiques variables : une Suisse polycentrique et multifonctionnelle ou du fédéralisme coopératif à la concurrence fiscale

Une Suisse polycentrique et multifonctionnelle ou du fédéralisme coopératif à la concurrence fiscale.

Association of Hematological Variables with Team-Sport Specific Fitness Performance.

PURPOSE: We investigated association of hematological variables with specific fitness performance in elite team-sport players. METHODS: Hemoglobin mass (Hbmass) was measured in 25 elite field hockey players using the optimized (2 min) CO-rebreathing method. Hemoglobin concentration ([Hb]), hematocrit and mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration (MCHC) were analyzed in venous blood. Fitness performance evaluation included a repeated-sprint ability (RSA) test (8 x 20 m sprints, 20 s of rest) and the Yo-Yo intermittent recovery level 2 (YYIR2). RESULTS: Hbmass was largely correlated (r = 0.62, P<0.01) with YYIR2 total distance covered (YYIR2TD) but not with any RSA-derived parameters (r ranging from -0.06 to -0.32; all P>0.05). [Hb] and MCHC displayed moderate correlations with both YYIR2TD (r = 0.44 and 0.41; both P<0.01) and RSA sprint decrement score (r = -0.41 and -0.44; both P<0.05). YYIR2TD correlated with RSA best and total sprint times (r = -0.46, P<0.05 and -0.60, P<0.01; respectively), but not with RSA sprint decrement score (r = -0.19, P>0.05). CONCLUSION: Hbmass is positively correlated with specific aerobic fitness, but not with RSA, in elite team-sport players. Additionally, the negative relationships between YYIR2 and RSA tests performance imply that different hematological mechanisms may be at play. Overall, these results indicate that these two fitness tests should not be used interchangeably as they reflect different hematological mechanisms.

The ADO Index as a Predictor of Two-Year Mortality in General Practice-Based Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Existing prediction models for mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients have not yet been validated in primary care, which is where the majority of patients receive care. OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to validate the ADO (age, dyspnoea, airflow obstruction) index as a predictor of 2-year mortality in 2 general practice-based COPD cohorts. METHODS: Six hundred and forty-six patients with COPD with GOLD (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease) stages I-IV were enrolled by their general practitioners and followed for 2 years. The ADO regression equation was used to predict a 2-year risk of all-cause mortality in each patient and this risk was compared with the observed 2-year mortality. Discrimination and calibration were assessed as well as the strength of association between the 15-point ADO score and the observed 2-year all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Fifty-two (8.1%) patients died during the 2-year follow-up period. Discrimination with the ADO index was excellent with an area under the curve of 0.78 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.71-0.84]. Overall, the predicted and observed risks matched well and visual inspection revealed no important differences between them across 10 risk classes (p = 0.68). The odds ratio for death per point increase according to the ADO index was 1.50 (95% CI 1.31-1.71). CONCLUSIONS: The ADO index showed excellent prediction properties in an out-of-population validation carried out in COPD patients from primary care settings. © 2014 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Un modelo de predicción de la insolvencia empresarial basado en variables financieras. Su aplicación al caso textil catalán (1994-1997)

En este documento se formula un modelo de predicción de la insolvencia a través de la combinación de diferentes variables cuantitativas extraídas de los estados contables de una muestra de empresas para los años 1994-1997. Partiendo del modelo de flexibilidad financiera de Donaldson, que es adaptado por Van Frederikslust a la predicción de la insolvencia, lo que aquí se expone es una aplicación a una muestra de empresas de los sectores textil y confección. Aunque los resultados no son alentadores, lo más importante es destacar cómo a través de una modelización de este tipo, probamos una formulación teórica del problema.

Pharmacogenetic and clinical study on adverse effects induced by psychotropic drugs

Second-generation antipsychotics (SGAs) have become the first-line antipsychotic treatment for psychotic disorders due to their better overall tolerance compared to classical antipsychotics. However, metabolic side effects such as weight gain are frequently described during treatment with SGAs and/or other psychotropic drugs including some antidepressants and mood stabilizers, which may also result in poor adherence to treatment. The aim of this work was to investigate different methods to predict common side effects, in particular weight gain during treatment with weight gain inducing psychotropic drugs. Firstly, clinical data were used to determine the potential predictive power of a one month weight gain on weight increase after three and 12 months of treatment (n=351 patients). A fast and strong weight gain of >5% after a period of one month (>5%WG) was found to be the best predictor for an important weight gain at three (>15%) and 12 months (>20%). Similar analyses in an independent cohort of psychiatric adolescents (n=42), showed that a comparable >4% weight gain at one month is the best predictor for an important weight gain at three months (>15%). Secondly, we aimed to determine whether an extensive analysis of genes could be used, in addition to clinical factors, to predict patients at risk for >5%WG or for type 2 diabetes (T2D). Adding genetic markers to clinical variables to predict >5%WG increased significantly the area under the curve (AUC) of the analysis (AUCfinai:0.92, AUCdmicai:0.75, pcO.OOOl, n=248). Conversely, genetic risk scores were found to be associated with T2D (OR: 2.5, p=0.03, n=285) but without a significant increase of AUC'when compared to the prediction based to clinical factors alone. Finally, therapeutic drug monitoring was used to predict extrapyramidal symptoms during risperidone treatment (n=150). Active moiety (sum of risperidone and of its active metabolite 9- hydroxyrisperidone plasma concentrations) of >40 ng/ml should be targeted only in case of insufficient response. These results highlight different approaches for personalizing psychotropic treatments in order to reduce related side effects. Further research is needed, in particular on the identification of genetic markers, to improve the implementation of these results into clinical practice. Résumé Les antipsychotiques atypiques (APA) sont devenus le traitement antipsychotique de première intention pour le traitement des psychoses, grâce à un profil d'effets secondaires plus favorables comparé aux antipsychotiques typiques. Néanmoins, d'autres effets indésirables d'ordre métabolique (ex. prise pondérale) sont observés sous APA, stabilisateurs de l'humeur et/ou certains antidépresseurs, pouvant aussi limiter l'adhérence au traitement. L'objectif de ce travail est d'explorer différentes méthodes permettant de prédire des effets secondaires courants, en particulier la prise de poids durant un traitement avec des psychotropes pouvant induire un tel effet. Dans une première partie, des données cliniques ont été évaluées pour leurs potentiels prédictifs d'une prise de poids à un mois sur une prise de poids à trois et 12 mois de traitement (n=351 patients). Une prise de poids rapide et forte >5% à un mois (PP>5%) s'est avérée être le meilleur prédicteur pour une prise pondérale importante à trois (>15%) et 12 (>20%) mois de traitement. Des analyses similaires dans une cohorte pédiatrique (n=42) ont indiqué une prise de poids >4% à un mois comme le meilleur prédicteur pour une prise pondérale importante (>15%) à trois mois de traitement. Dans une deuxième partie, des marqueurs génétiques, en complément aux données cliniques, ont été analysés pour leur contribution potentielle à la prédiction d'une PP>5% et au dépistage du diabète de type 2 (DT2). L'ajout de variants génétiques aux données cliniques afin de prédire une PP>5% a augmenté significativement l'aire sous la courbe (ASC) de l'analyse (ASCflnai:0.92, ASCC|inique:0.75, p<0.0001, n=248). Concernant le DT2, un score génétique est associé au DT2 (OR: 2.5, p=0.03, n=285), néanmoins aucune augmentation significative de l'ASC n'a été observée par rapport à l'analyse avec les données cliniques seules. Finalement, des mesures de concentrations plasmatiques de médicaments ont été utilisées pour prédire la survenue de symptômes extrapyramidaux sous rispéridone (n=150). Cette analyse nous a permis d'établir qu'une concentration plasmatique de rispéridone associée à son métabolite actif >40 ng/ml ne devrait être recherchée qu'en cas de réponse clinique insuffisante. Ces différents résultats soulignent différentes approches pour personnaliser la prescription de psychotropes afin de réduire la survenue d'effets secondaires. Des études supplémentaires sont néanmoins nécessaires, en particulier sur l'identification de marqueurs génétiques, afin d'améliorer l'implémentation de ces résultats en pratique clinique. Résumé large publique Les antipsychotiques atypiques et autres traitements psychotropes sont couramment utilisés pour traiter les symptômes liés à la schizophrénie et aux troubles de l'humeur. Comme pour tout médicament, des effets secondaires sont observés. L'objectif de ce travail est d'explorer différentes méthodes qui permettraient de prédire la survenue de certains effets indésirables, en particulier une prise de poids et la survenue d'un diabète. Dans une première partie, nous avons évalué l'effet d'une prise de poids précoce sur une prise de poids au long terme sous traitement psychotrope. Les analyses ont mis en évidence dans une population psychiatrique qu'une prise de poids à un mois >5% par rapport au poids initial permettait de prédire une prise pondérale importante après trois (>15%) et 12 (>20%) mois de traitement. Un résultat semblable a. été observé dans un autre groupe de patients exclusivement pédiatriques. Dans une deuxième partie, nous avons évalué la contribution potentielle de marqueurs génétiques à la prédiction d'une prise pondérale de >5% après un mois de traitement ainsi que dans la survenue d'un diabète de type 2. Pour la prise de poids, la combinaison des données génétiques aux données cliniques a permis d'augmenter de 17% la précision de la prédiction, en passant de 70% à 87%. Concernant la survenue d'un diabète, les données génétiques n'ont pas amélioré la prédiction. Finalement, nous avons analysé la relation possible entre les concentrations sanguines d'un antipsychotique atypique couramment utilisé, la rispéridone, et la survenue d'effets secondaires (ici les tremblements). Il est ressorti de cette étude qu'une concentration plasmatique du médicament supérieure à 40 ng/ml ne devrait être dépassée qu'en cas de réponse thérapeutique insuffisante, au risque de voir augmenter la survenue d'effets secondaires du type tremblements. Ces résultats démontrent la possibilité de prédire avec une bonne précision la survenue de certains effets secondaires. Cependant, en particulier dans le domaine de la génétique, d'autres études sont nécessaires afin de confirmer les résultats obtenus dans nos analyses. Une fois cette étape franchie, il serait possible d'utiliser ces outils dans la pratique clinique. A terme, cela pourrait permettre au prescripteur de sélectionner les traitements les mieux adaptés aux profils spécifiques de chaque patient.

Classification models for neurocognitive impairment in HIV infection based on demographic and clinical variables

Objective: We used demographic and clinical data to design practical classification models for prediction of neurocognitive impairment (NCI) in people with HIV infection. Methods: The study population comprised 331 HIV-infected patients with available demographic, clinical, and neurocognitive data collected using a comprehensive battery of neuropsychological tests. Classification and regression trees (CART) were developed to btain detailed and reliable models to predict NCI. Following a practical clinical approach, NCI was considered the main variable for study outcomes, and analyses were performed separately in treatment-naïve and treatment-experienced patients. Results: The study sample comprised 52 treatment-naïve and 279 experienced patients. In the first group, the variables identified as better predictors of NCI were CD4 cell count and age (correct classification [CC]: 79.6%, 3 final nodes). In treatment-experienced patients, the variables most closely related to NCI were years of education, nadir CD4 cell count, central nervous system penetration-effectiveness score, age, employment status, and confounding comorbidities (CC: 82.1%, 7 final nodes). In patients with an undetectable viral load and no comorbidities, we obtained a fairly accurate model in which the main variables were nadir CD4 cell count, current CD4 cell count, time on current treatment, and past highest viral load (CC: 88%, 6 final nodes). Conclusion: Practical classification models to predict NCI in HIV infection can be obtained using demographic and clinical variables. An approach based on CART analyses may facilitate screening for HIV-associated neurocognitive disorders and complement clinical information about risk and protective factors for NCI in HIV-infected patients.

Influence of transport and time on blood variables commonly measured for the athlete biological passport.

Some recent studies have characterized the stability of blood variables commonly measured for the Athlete Biological Passport. The aim of this study was to characterize the impact of different shipments conditions and the quality of the results returned by the haematological analyzer. Twenty-two healthy male subjects provided five EDTA tubes each. Four shipment conditions (24, 36, 48, 72 h) under refrigerated conditions were tested and compared to a set of samples left in the laboratory also under refrigerated conditions (group control). All measurements were conducted using two Sysmex XT-2000i analyzers. Haemoglobin concentration, reticulocytes percentage, and OFF-score numerical data were the same for samples analyzed just after collection and after a shipment under refrigerated conditions up to 72 h. Detailed information reported especially by the differential (DIFF) channel scatterplot of the Sysmex XT-2000i indicated that there were signs of blood deterioration, but were not of relevance for the variables used in the Athlete Biological Passport. As long as the cold chain is guaranteed, the time delay between the collection and the analyses of blood variables can be extended. Copyright© 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Variables que incideixen en el coneixement de català i castellà de l'alumnat estranger a Catalunya: un estudi amb alumnat de sisè de primària

El domini de la llengua escolar apareix en totes les polítiques educatives com el tema central a través del qual s’ha d’incidir per garantir la igualtat i la cohesió social, ja que l’èxit escolar passa per desenvolupar una bona competència en la llengua vehicular de l’ensenyament (OECD 2008). A Catalunya, tot i els esforços destinats, els resultats lingüístics de l’alumnat estranger continuen essent molt més baixos que els de l’alumnat nacional (Consell Superior d’Avaluació del Sistema Educatiu 2009). No obstant això, hi ha molt pocs estudis que hagin analitzat els factors que s’amaguen darrere dels resultats lingüístics de l’alumnat estranger. Amb aquest objectiu en ment, l’article presenta les dades d’una recerca que pretén aprofundir les variables que incideixen en el coneixement de català i castellà escrit de l’alumnat estranger escolaritzat en 57 escoles de primària repartides pel territori de Catalunya

Value of renal cortical thickness as a predictor of renal function impairment in chronic renal disease patients

Objective: To determine the presence of linear relationship between renal cortical thickness, bipolar length, and parenchymal thickness in chronic kidney disease patients presenting with different estimated glomerular filtration rates (GFRs) and to assess the reproducibility of these measurements using ultrasonography. Materials and Methods: Ultrasonography was performed in 54 chronic renal failure patients. The scans were performed by two independent and blinded radiologists. The estimated GFR was calculated using the Cockcroft-Gault equation. Interobserver agreement was calculated and a linear correlation coefficient (r) was determined in order to establish the relationship between the different renal measurements and estimated GFR. Results: The correlation between GFR and measurements of renal cortical thickness, bipolar length, and parenchymal thickness was, respectively, moderate (r = 0.478; p < 0.001), poor (r = 0.380; p = 0.004), and poor (r = 0.277; p = 0.116). The interobserver agreement was considered excellent (0.754) for measurements of cortical thickness and bipolar length (0.833), and satisfactory for parenchymal thickness (0.523). Conclusion: The interobserver reproducibility for renal measurements obtained was good. A moderate correlation was observed between estimated GFR and cortical thickness, but bipolar length and parenchymal thickness were poorly correlated.

A Meta-Analysis of Trabecular Bone Score in Fracture Risk Prediction and Its Relationship to FRAX.

Trabecular bone score (TBS) is a gray-level textural index of bone microarchitecture derived from lumbar spine dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) images. TBS is a bone mineral density (BMD)-independent predictor of fracture risk. The objective of this meta-analysis was to determine whether TBS predicted fracture risk independently of FRAX probability and to examine their combined performance by adjusting the FRAX probability for TBS. We utilized individual-level data from 17,809 men and women in 14 prospective population-based cohorts. Baseline evaluation included TBS and the FRAX risk variables, and outcomes during follow-up (mean 6.7 years) comprised major osteoporotic fractures. The association between TBS, FRAX probabilities, and the risk of fracture was examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model in each cohort and for each sex and expressed as the gradient of risk (GR; hazard ratio per 1 SD change in risk variable in direction of increased risk). FRAX probabilities were adjusted for TBS using an adjustment factor derived from an independent cohort (the Manitoba Bone Density Cohort). Overall, the GR of TBS for major osteoporotic fracture was 1.44 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.35-1.53) when adjusted for age and time since baseline and was similar in men and women (p > 0.10). When additionally adjusted for FRAX 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture, TBS remained a significant, independent predictor for fracture (GR = 1.32, 95% CI 1.24-1.41). The adjustment of FRAX probability for TBS resulted in a small increase in the GR (1.76, 95% CI 1.65-1.87 versus 1.70, 95% CI 1.60-1.81). A smaller change in GR for hip fracture was observed (FRAX hip fracture probability GR 2.25 vs. 2.22). TBS is a significant predictor of fracture risk independently of FRAX. The findings support the use of TBS as a potential adjustment for FRAX probability, though the impact of the adjustment remains to be determined in the context of clinical assessment guidelines. © 2015 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Caracterització del temps de vol en relació amb variables biomecàniques de l’estirada en l’arrencada d’halterofília

L’objecte del present estudi és caracteritzar el temps de vol (Tv) de la fase aèria en l’exercici d’arrencada en halterofília. Es descriu el seu comportament en funció de l’increment progressiu de la càrrega i en relació a variables biomecàniques de l’estirada, així com la seva evolució en un cicle d’entrenament. Es va fer un test màxim de càrregues progressives amb set halterofilistes (n = 7) de competició. Mitjançant els sistemes de valoració Musclelab i Chronojump es van registrar els valors de: força (F), potència (P), velocitat (V), pic de velocitat (pV) i alçada relativa (Hrel ) de la barra en l’estirada, al costat del Tv del desplaçament dels peus de l’aixecador a l’entrada sota la barra. Es va observar una moderada correlació negativa (r = –0,561; p < 0,01) entre el Tv i la càrrega màxima del test (%1RMT). No es van trobar correlacions significatives per al Tv respecte a la resta de variables analitzades. El Tv disminuïa amb l’increment de la càrrega en rangs submàxims, i era de natura aleatòria amb l’ocupació de càrregues màximes. En un subgrup de la mostra (n = 4) es van valorar les mateixes variables passades vuit setmanes. El Tv, la Pmàx i el pV suggereixen ser variables suficientment sensibles per monitoritzar els canvis generats per l’entrenament en vuit setmanes, encara que la reduïda dimensió mostral no va permetre aconseguir diferències significatives. Aquests resultats destaquen la possibilitat de considerar el Tv i la P com a mesures de control en l’entrenament d’halterofilistes, preferentment en l’ús de càrregues submàximes.

Comparación de la capacidad predictiva de los modelos de coeficientes fijos frente a variables en los modelos econométricos regionales: un análisis para Cataluña

Durante las últimas décadas se ha producido un creciente interés en nuestro país en relación a las economías regionales dada la necesidad de los gobiernos regionales de obtener información sobre sus economías para así llevar a cabo actuaciones de política económica más efectivas y eficientes. En este marco, los modelos econométricos constituyen una herramienta de utilidad puesto que ofrecen información sobre las relaciones estructurales que se dan en una economía y permiten predecir su evolución. Sin embargo, la utilización de dichos modelos con finalidad predictiva se enfrenta al inconveniente de la elevada inestabilidad a corto plazo que se produce en las relaciones entre variables económicas a nivel regional. Por este motivo, en el presente trabajo se propone la utilización de un modelo de coeficientes variables para recoger dicha inestabilidad y mejorar las predicciones sobre la evolución de las variables del bloque de producción de la economía catalana. Para contrastar la mejora obtenida a partir de la aplicación de dicho modelo, se compara su capacidad predictiva con la de un modelo de coeficientes fijos. Los resultados muestran un mejor comportamiento del modelo de coeficientes variables frente al modelo de coeficientes fijos.

Revisió de la recerca educativa sobre les variables explicatives del rendiment acadèmic:Apunts per a l'ús del criteri de "modificabilitat pedagògica" de les variables.

La conceptualització del concepte de rendiment acadèmic ha variat al llarg de lahistòria des de definicions que es basaven en un únic criteri fins a les més actuals concepcionsmultidimensionals. Aquestes darreres apareixen com a resultat del desenvolupamentd'aquest concepte, paral.lel a l'evolució històrica d'un fenomen més ampli:el fracàs escolar