Missing the logic of the text: Lord Butler’s report on intelligence on Iraqi weapons of mass destruction

This article focuses on the final report of Lord Butler’s review of British intelligence on weapons of mass destruction (WMD), specifically on its treatment of the accuracy of the use of intelligence on Iraqi WMD in a government dossier published in September 2002 ahead of the 2003 Iraq war. In the report, the demonstration of the accuracy of the “September Dossier” hinges on the insertion of tables that compare side-by-side quotations from this document and from intelligence assessments. The analysis of the textual and visual methods by which the report is written reveals how the logic of the comparative tables is missed in the Butler report: the logic of these tables requires that the comparison between quotations from the two documents should be performed at the level of their details but the Butler report performs its comparison only at a broad and general level.

An improved lesion detection approach based on similarity measurement between fuzzy intensity segmentation and spatial probability maps

The application of automatic segmentation methods in lesion detection is desirable. However, such methods are restricted by intensity similarities between lesioned and healthy brain tissue. Using multi-spectral magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) modalities may overcome this problem but it is not always practicable. In this article, a lesion detection approach requiring a single MRI modality is presented, which is an improved method based on a recent publication. This new method assumes that a low similarity should be found in the regions of lesions when the likeness between an intensity based fuzzy segmentation and a location based tissue probabilities is measured. The usage of a normalized similarity measurement enables the current method to fine-tune the threshold for lesion detection, thus maximizing the possibility of reaching high detection accuracy. Importantly, an extra cleaning step is included in the current approach which removes enlarged ventricles from detected lesions. The performance investigation using simulated lesions demonstrated that not only the majority of lesions were well detected but also normal tissues were identified effectively. Tests on images acquired in stroke patients further confirmed the strength of the method in lesion detection. When compared with the previous version, the current approach showed a higher sensitivity in detecting small lesions and had less false positives around the ventricle and the edge of the brain

India’s disappearing common lands: fuzzy boundaries, encroachment, and evolving property rights

Opportunistic land encroachment occurs in many low-income countries, gradually yet pervasively, until discrete areas of common land disappear. This paper, motivated by field observations in Karnataka, India, demonstrates that such an evolution of property rights from common to private may be efficient when the boundaries between common and private land are poorly defined, or ‘‘fuzzy.’’ Using a multi-period optimization model, and introducing the concept of stock and flow enforcement, I show how effectiveness of enforcement effort, whether encroachment is reversible, and punitive fines, influence whether an area of common land is fully defined and protected or gradually or rapidly encroached.

Military competition and the emergence of nationalism: putting the logic of political survival into historical context

This essay aims to make a contribution to the conversation between IR and nationalism literatures by considering a particular question: What is the relationship between interstate military competition and the emergence of nationalism as a potent force in world politics? The conventional wisdom among international security scholars, especially neorealists, holds that nationalism can be more or less treated like a “technology” that allowed states to extract significant resources as well as manpower from their respective populations. This paper underlines some of the problems involved with this perspective and pushes forward an interpretation that is based on the logic of political survival. I argue that nationalism’s emergence as a powerful force in world politics followed from the “mutation” and absorption of the universalistic/cosmopolitan republican ideas that gained temporary primacy in Europe during the eighteenth century into particularistic nationalist ideologies. This transformation, in turn, can be best explained by the French Revolution’s dramatic impacts on rulers’ political survival calculi vis-à-vis both interstate and domestic political challenges. The analysis offered in this essay contributes to our understanding of the relationship between IR and nationalism while also highlighting the potential value of the political survival framework for exploring macrohistorical puzzles.

Transreal arithmetic as a consistent basis for paraconsistent logics

Paraconsistent logics are non-classical logics which allow non-trivial and consistent reasoning about inconsistent axioms. They have been pro- posed as a formal basis for handling inconsistent data, as commonly arise in human enterprises, and as methods for fuzzy reasoning, with applica- tions in Artificial Intelligence and the control of complex systems. Formalisations of paraconsistent logics usually require heroic mathe- matical efforts to provide a consistent axiomatisation of an inconsistent system. Here we use transreal arithmetic, which is known to be consis- tent, to arithmetise a paraconsistent logic. This is theoretically simple and should lead to efficient computer implementations. We introduce the metalogical principle of monotonicity which is a very simple way of making logics paraconsistent. Our logic has dialetheaic truth values which are both False and True. It allows contradictory propositions, allows variable contradictions, but blocks literal contradictions. Thus literal reasoning, in this logic, forms an on-the- y, syntactic partition of the propositions into internally consistent sets. We show how the set of all paraconsistent, possible worlds can be represented in a transreal space. During the development of our logic we discuss how other paraconsistent logics could be arithmetised in transreal arithmetic.

Transreal proof of the existence of universal possible worlds

Transreal arithmetic is total, in the sense that the fundamental operations of addition, subtraction, multiplication and division can be applied to any transreal numbers with the result being a transreal number [1]. In particular division by zero is allowed. It is proved, in [3], that transreal arithmetic is consistent and contains real arithmetic. The entire set of transreal numbers is a total semantics that models all of the semantic values, that is truth values, commonly used in logics, such as the classical, dialetheaic, fuzzy and gap values [2]. By virtue of the totality of transreal arithmetic, these logics can be implemented using total, arithmetical functions, specifically operators, whose domain and counterdomain is the entire set of transreal numbers

The logic of ideas in Christopher Hill's English revolution

This article examines the role played by ideas and their thinkers in Christopher Hill's histories of the English Revolution. Hill protested against a reductionist economic determinism with no place for the intrinsic power of ideas, but his account of ideas gave them a progressive logic parallel to, if not always easy to link with, that of economic development, and threatened to divorce them from their muddled and imperfect thinkers. This account of the logic of ideas had a striking impact on the way in which the more mainstream radicals of the English Revolution appeared in Hill's work, with both the Levellers and James Harrington being half assimilated to, and half pushed aside in favor of, the more thoroughgoing economic radicals who expressed, in however ragged a way, the intrinsic potential of their ideas. However, Hill's writings also betray a surprising attraction to religious over secular forms of radicalism.

Anticipating future risk in social-ecological systems using fuzzy cognitive mapping: the case of wildfire in the Chiquitania, Bolivia

Understanding complex social-ecological systems, and anticipating how they may respond to rapid change, requires an approach that incorporates environmental, social, economic, and policy factors, usually in a context of fragmented data availability. We employed fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) to integrate these factors in the assessment of future wildfire risk in the Chiquitania region, Bolivia. In this region, dealing with wildfires is becoming increasingly challenging due to reinforcing feedbacks between multiple drivers. We conducted semi-structured interviews and constructed different FCMs in focus groups to understand the regional dynamics of wildfire from diverse perspectives. We used FCM modelling to evaluate possible adaptation scenarios in the context of future drier climatic conditions. Scenarios also considered possible failure to respond in time to the emergent risk. This approach proved of great potential to support decision-making for risk management. It helped identify key forcing variables and generate insights into potential risks and trade-offs of different strategies. All scenarios showed increased wildfire risk in the event of more droughts. The ‘Hands-off’ scenario resulted in amplified impacts driven by intensifying trends, affecting particularly the agricultural production. The ‘Fire management’ scenario, which adopted a bottom-up approach to improve controlled burning, showed less trade-offs between wildfire risk reduction and production compared to the ‘Fire suppression’ scenario. Findings highlighted the importance of considering strategies that involve all actors who use fire, and the need to nest these strategies for a more systemic approach to manage wildfire risk. The FCM model could be used as a decision-support tool and serve as a ‘boundary object’ to facilitate collaboration and integration of different forms of knowledge and perceptions of fire in the region. This approach has also the potential to support decisions in other dynamic frontier landscapes around the world that are facing increased risk of large wildfires.

Evolutionary fuzzy clustering of relational data

This paper is concerned with the computational efficiency of fuzzy clustering algorithms when the data set to be clustered is described by a proximity matrix only (relational data) and the number of clusters must be automatically estimated from such data. A fuzzy variant of an evolutionary algorithm for relational clustering is derived and compared against two systematic (pseudo-exhaustive) approaches that can also be used to automatically estimate the number of fuzzy clusters in relational data. An extensive collection of experiments involving 18 artificial and two real data sets is reported and analyzed. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On the efficiency of evolutionary fuzzy clustering

This paper tackles the problem of showing that evolutionary algorithms for fuzzy clustering can be more efficient than systematic (i.e. repetitive) approaches when the number of clusters in a data set is unknown. To do so, a fuzzy version of an Evolutionary Algorithm for Clustering (EAC) is introduced. A fuzzy cluster validity criterion and a fuzzy local search algorithm are used instead of their hard counterparts employed by EAC. Theoretical complexity analyses for both the systematic and evolutionary algorithms under interest are provided. Examples with computational experiments and statistical analyses are also presented.

Analytic Methods for the Logic of Proofs

The logic of proofs (lp) was proposed as Gdels missed link between Intuitionistic and S4-proofs, but so far the tableau-based methods proposed for lp have not explored this closeness with S4 and contain rules whose analycity is not immediately evident. We study possible formulations of analytic tableau proof methods for lp that preserve the subformula property. Two sound and complete tableau decision methods of increasing degree of analycity are proposed, KELP and preKELP. The latter is particularly inspired on S4-proofs. The crucial role of proof constants in the structure of lp-proofs methods is analysed. In particular, a method for the abduction of proof constant specifications in strongly analytic preKELP proofs is presented; abduction heuristics and the complexity of the method are discussed.