Compositional Model Repositories via Dynamic Constraint Satisfaction with Order-of-Magnitude Preferences

The predominant knowledge-based approach to automated model construction, compositional modelling, employs a set of models of particular functional components. Its inference mechanism takes a scenario describing the constituent interacting components of a system and translates it into a useful mathematical model. This paper presents a novel compositional modelling approach aimed at building model repositories. It furthers the field in two respects. Firstly, it expands the application domain of compositional modelling to systems that can not be easily described in terms of interacting functional components, such as ecological systems. Secondly, it enables the incorporation of user preferences into the model selection process. These features are achieved by casting the compositional modelling problem as an activity-based dynamic preference constraint satisfaction problem, where the dynamic constraints describe the restrictions imposed over the composition of partial models and the preferences correspond to those of the user of the automated modeller. In addition, the preference levels are represented through the use of symbolic values that differ in orders of magnitude.

Education, preferences for leisure, and the optimal income tax schedule

Recent advances in dynamic Mirrlees economies have incorporated the treatment of human capital investments as an important dimension of government policy. This paper adds to this literature by considering a two period economy where agents are di erentiated by their preferences for leisure and their productivity, both private information. The fact that productivity is only learnt later in an agent's life introduces uncertainty to agent's savings and human capital choices and makes optimal the use of multi-period tie-ins in the mechanism that characterizes the government policy. We show that optimal policies are often interim ine cient and that the introduction of these ine ciencies may take the form of marginal tax rates on labor income of varying sign and educational policies that include the discouragement of human capital acquisition. With regards to implementation, state-dependent linear taxes implement optimal savings, while human capital policies may require labor income taxes that depend directly on agents' schooling.

Income inequality in a job-search model with heterogeneous time preferences

This paper explores the use of an intertemporal job-search model in the investigation of within-cohort and between-cohort income inequality, the latter being generated by the heterogeneity of time preferences among cohorts of homogenous workers and the former by the cross-sectional turnover in the job market. It also offers an alternative explanation for the empirically-documented negative correlation between time preference and labor income. Under some speciÖc distributions regarding wage offers and time preferences, we show how the within-cohort and between-cohort Gini coe¢ cients of income distribution can be calculated, and how they vary as a function of the parameters of the model.

Local concavifiability of preferences and determinacy of equilibrium

In this paper we consider strictly convex monotone continuous complete preorderings on R+n that are locally representable by a concave utility function. By Alexandroff 's (1939) theorem, this function is twice dífferentiable almost everywhere. We show that if the bordered hessian determinant of a concave utility representation vanishes on a null set. Then demand is countably rectifiable, that is, except for a null set of bundles, it is a countable union of c1 manifolds. This property of consumer demand is enough to guarantee that the equilibrium prices of apure exchange economy will be locally unique, for almost every endowment. We give an example of an economy satisfying these conditions but not the Katzner (1968) - Debreu (1970, 1972) smoothness conditions.

Preferences, common knowledge and speculative trade

We study the proposition that if it is common knowledge that en allocation of assets is ex-ante pareto efficient, there is no further trade generated by new information. The key to this result is that the information partitions and other characteristics of the agents must be common knowledge and that contracts, or asset markets, must be complete. It does not depend on learning, on 'lemons' problems, nor on agreement regarding beliefs and the interpretation of information. The only requirement on preferences is state-additivity; in particular, traders need not be risk-averse. We also prove the converse result that "no-trade results" imply that traders' preferences can be represented by state-additive utility functions. We analyze why examples of other widely studied preferences (e.g., Schmeidler (1989)) allow "speculative" trade.

Beyond indifferent players: on the existence of prisoners dilemmas in games with amicable and adversarial preferences

Why don’t agents cooperate when they both stand to gain? This question ranks among the most fundamental in the social sciences. Explanations abound. Among the most compelling are various configurations of the prisoner’s dilemma (PD), or public goods problem. Payoffs in PD’s are specified in one of two ways: as primitive cardinal payoffs or as ordinal final utility. However, as final utility is objectively unobservable, only the primitive payoff games are ever observed. This paper explores mappings from primitive payoff to utility payoff games and demonstrates that though an observable game is a PD there are broad classes of utility functions for which there exists no associated utility PD. In particular we show that even small amounts of either altruism or enmity may disrupt the mapping from primitive payoff to utility PD. We then examine some implications of these results.

Homothetic preferences

This paper describes properties of upper semi-continuous homothetic preferences. First we give conditions for the existence of an upper semi-continuous representation which is homogeneous of degree one. Then we show that with the additional assumptions of monotonicity or strict convexity, the preference is continuous. Several counterexamples illustrate the tightness of the results.

Interim efficiency with MEU-preferences

Recently Kajii and (2008) proposed to characterize interim efficient allocations in an exchange economy under asymmetric information when uncertainty is represented by multiple posteriors. When agents have Bewley's incomplete preferences, Kajii and Ui (2008) proposed a necessary and sufficient condition on the set of posteriors. However, when agents have Gilboa--Schmeidler's MaxMin expected utility preferences, they only propose a sufficient condition. The objective of this paper is to complete Kajii and Ui's work by proposing a necessary and sufficient condition for interim efficiency for various models of ambiguity aversion and in particular MaxMin expected utility. Our proof is based on a direct application of some results proposed by Rigotti, Shannon and Stralecki (2008).

Utilização do creep-feeding e seus efeitos no peso a desmama de terneiros e no desempenho reprodutivo de vacas de corte

O trabalho teve por objetivo avaliar os efeitos do creep-feeding no ganho de peso e comportamento ingestivo de concentrado dos terneiros e impacto no desempenho produtivo e reprodutivo de vacas primíparas (Experimento I) e de vacas multíparas (Experimento II). Os tratamentos em cada experimento foram T1: vacas amamentando terneiros em sistema creep-feeding; T2: vacas amamentando terneiras em sistema creep-feeding; T3: vacas amamentando terneiros em sistema sem creep-feeding e T4: vacas amamentando terneiras em sistema sem creep-feeding. No Experimento I, o sistema creep-feeding promoveu nas vacas peso vivo (PV) e escore de condição corporal (CC) no final do experimento mais altos (P<0,01) em relação às vacas do sistema sem creep-feeding (412 kg e 3,94 vs. 399 kg e 3,77, respectivamente). Foi observado para as vacas do sistema creep-feeding ganho de peso médio diário (GMD) mais elevados (P<0,01) em relação ao grupo de vacas onde os terneiros (as) não receberam suplementação (0,549 vs. 0,449 kg/dia). O sistema de alimentação e o sexo dos terneiros (as) não influenciaram a porcentagem de repetição de prenhez das vacas primíparas (76,5%). O sistema creep-feeding proporcionou maior peso vivo ao desmame e maior GMD (P<0,01) para terneiros (as) em comparação a estas categorias no sistema sem creep-feeding (194 kg e 0,843 kg/dia vs. 174 kg e 0,701 kg/dia, respectivamente). Na avaliação do comportamento ingestivo de concentrado se observou maior (P<0,01) tempo médio de consumo de concentrado (TCT) para os terneiros em relação as terneiras. Não se encontrou diferença (P>0,05) para número diário de acesso ao cocho (NAT) e porcentagem de terneiros (as) consumindo concentrado (PAT). No Experimento II, não se observou diferença significativa (P>0,05) para GMD e CC das vacas durante o experimento, em função do sistema de alimentação e do sexo dos terneiros (0,265 kg/dia e 3,15, respectivamente). O sistema de alimentação e o sexo dos terneiros (as) não influenciaram a porcentagem de repetição de prenhez das vacas multíparas, apresentando média de 76,5%. O sistema de alimentação e o sexo dos terneiros apresentaram diferenças significativas (P<0,01) para PV ao desmame (195, 184, 172 e 165 kg para T1, T2, T3 e T4, respectivamente) e para GMD (0,849, 0,789, 0,705 e 0,637 kg/dia para T1, T2, T3 e T4, respectivamente). Na avaliação do comportamento ingestivo de concentrado dos terneiros (as) de vacas multíparas não se observou diferença significativa (P>0,05) entre sexo para TCT, NAT E PAT.

Phase transition of demand explained by the heterogeneity of consumers' intrinsic preferences

In 1991 Gary S. Becker presented A Note on Restaurant Pricing and Other Examples of Social In uences on Price explaining why many successful restaurants, plays, sporting events, and other activities do not raise their prices even with persistent excess demand. The main reason for this is due to the discontinuity of stable demands, which is explained in Becker's (1991) analysis. In the present paper we construct a discrete time stochastic model of socially interacting consumers deciding for one of two establishments. With this model we show that the discontinuity of stable demands, proposed by Gary S. Becker, depends crucially on an additional factor: the dispersion of the consumers' intrinsic preferences for the establishments.

Asymmetric preferences in investment decisions in the Brazilian financial market

The main objective of this article is to test the hypothesis that utility preferences that incorporate asymmetric reactions between gains and losses generate better results than the classic Von Neumann-Morgenstern utility functions in the Brazilian market. The asymmetric behavior can be computed through the introduction of a disappointment (or loss) aversion coefficient in the classical expected utility function, which increases the impact of losses against gains. The results generated by both traditional and loss aversion utility functions are compared with real data from the Brazilian market regarding stock market participation in the investment portfolio of pension funds and individual investors.

Aspectos da biologia reprodutiva de Eretmochelys imbricata (testudines, cheloniidae) no litoral sul do Rio Grande do Norte, Brasil

Female hawksbill turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata) nesting along the southeastcoastline of Rio Grande do Norte State, Brazil (6º13'40"S, 35º03'05"W) were captured and weighed during the four months from January to April 2007, in the course of the annual egglaying season, which extended from 06 rd November 2006 to 30 rd May 2007. In all, 99 weight measurements were performed. On first contact the females exhibited an average post-oviposition weight of 79.1 kg (range 56.2-98.9 kg, SD = 10.9 kg, n = 44 females). Those individuals which were subsequently recaptured showed a mean weight loss of 1.7 kg (range 0.7-4.5 kg, SD = 1.0 kg, n = 39 sets of measurements on 20 females) in the interval between two consecutive post-ovipositions, separated by a maximum time interval of 17 days. In the cases where the female aborted the nesting process, the pre-oviposition weight was measured. The clutch weight, that is to say, the weight loss between consecutive pre-oviposition and post-oviposition measurements (separated by a maximum time interval of 3 days), was found to be 5.2 kg (range 4.3-6.0 kg, SD = 0.9 kg, n = 6 sets of measurements). This value is significantly higher (t-test, p<0.001) than the loss between two consecutive post-oviposition measurements with the same female. The mean recovery in body weight, that is to say, the average gain in weight between successive post-oviposition and pre-oviposition captures of the same individual (separated by a time interval of 12 to 17 days), was found to be 3.0 kg (range 1.9-4.3 kg, SD = 1.0 kg, n = 4 sets of measurements) Although the small sample size makes it unwise to generalise, the recovery in body weight was found to be always significantly lower (t-test, p<0.005) than the clutch weight. This fact is in agreement with the observed weight loss tendency throughout the breeding season for this species. Considering the clutch weight and the internidal recovery in body weight we found that the total weight loss of the adult hawksbill females after three to five nesting events varied from 10.4% (range 8.7-11.9%, SD = 1.6%, n = 3) to 14.1% (range 11.8-15.4%, SD = 1.3%, n = 6) in relation to their initial pre-oviposition weight. If there were no body weight recovery during the internesting interval we estimate that a female that nests three to five times in the course of the season would lose from 19% to 31% of its initial weight. We emphasise that our clutch weight estimate was performed by weighing the females and not by multiplying the number of eggs in the nest by their average unit weight. In this way, our measurements take into account the loss of liquid during the oviposition. Despite the unequivocal evidence of body weight recovery during the internidal interval, it is not clear if the cause of this process is rehydration or feeding

Estrutura da população de Coleodactylus natalensis Freire, 1999 (Squamata: Sphaerodactylidae) no Parque Estadual Dunas de Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, Brasil

Coleodactylus natalensis Freire, 1999, an endemic species of Atlantic Forest fragments around the Natal municipality, Rio Grande do Norte State, Brazil, has as type locality the Parque Estadual Dunas de Natal (05º48 S to 05º53 S and 35º09 W to 35º12 W), one of the largest restinga (herb and shrub association on sand dunes along the Brazilian coastline) associate fragment, surrounded by urban zone, placed on setentrional Atlantic Forest limits. We made estimates on populational density, spatial distribution, habitat and microhabitat preferences and feeding ecological aspects like sazonal and sexual variations on diet, prey electivities and niche breadth. We randomly sampled ninety-six 50m2 quadrants in each of the four habitats identified in the study area. Were collected 49 specimens and their stomach contents were analyzed; prey items found were correlated with leaf-litter invertebrates from habitat samples. We found a 98,5 ± 75,5 individuals/ha density, in grouped distribution pattern on densest habitats and random distribution on others habitats. This species lives mostly on leaf-litter in forest habitats, in higher humidity points, with lower temperatures, deeper leaf litter and lower sea level elevations than the randomly chosen points in the study area. Isopoda and Aranae were the most important prey categories in numeric, frequency and volumetric terms. Niche breadth has an intermediate value and was variable in sexual and in habitat terms. There was no correlation between morfometric measures and prey size on diet. The C. natalensis population studied seems to be diet opportunist, although selects larger prey items. The Parque Estadual das Dunas do Natal has several indications of anthropic pressure from the surrounding urban area that may affects the local C. natalensis population. Thus, the fragility of this species calls for urgent conservation efforts