Robust parametric indirect estimates of the expected cost of a hospital stay with covariates and censored data.

We consider the problem of estimating the mean hospital cost of stays of a class of patients (e.g., a diagnosis-related group) as a function of patient characteristics. The statistical analysis is complicated by the asymmetry of the cost distribution, the possibility of censoring on the cost variable, and the occurrence of outliers. These problems have often been treated separately in the literature, and a method offering a joint solution to all of them is still missing. Indirect procedures have been proposed, combining an estimate of the duration distribution with an estimate of the conditional cost for a given duration. We propose a parametric version of this approach, allowing for asymmetry and censoring in the cost distribution and providing a mean cost estimator that is robust in the presence of extreme values. In addition, the new method takes covariate information into account.

Prediction of direct and indirect genetic gains and genotypic correlations in rubber tree progenies

The objective of this work was to estimate the genetic parameters, genotypic and phenotypic correlations, and direct and indirect genetic gains among and within rubber tree (Hevea brasiliensis) progenies. The experiment was set up at the Municipality of Jaú, SP, Brazil. A randomized complete block design was used, with 22 treatments (progenies), 6 replicates, and 10 plants per plot at a spacing of 3x3 m. Three‑year‑old progenies were assessed for girth, rubber yield, and bark thickness by direct and indirect gains and genotypic correlations. The number of latex vessel rings showed the best correlations, correlating positively and significantly with girth and bark thickness. Selection gains among progenies were greater than within progeny for all the variables analyzed. Total gains obtained were high, especially for girth increase and rubber yield, which were 93.38 and 105.95%, respectively. Young progeny selection can maximize the expected genetic gains, reducing the rubber tree selection cycle.

Integrating life cycle costs and environmental impacts of composite rail car-bodies for a Korean train

Background, aim, and scope A coupled Life Cycle Costing and life cycle assessment has been performed for car-bodies of the Korean Tilting Train eXpress (TTX) project using European and Korean databases, with the objective of assessing environmental and cost performance to aid materials and process selection. More specifically, the potential of polymer composite car-body structures for the Korean Tilting Train eXpress (TTX) has been investigated. Materials and methods This assessment includes the cost of both carriage manufacturing and use phases, coupled with the life cycle environmental impacts of all stages from raw material production, through carriage manufacture and use, to end-of-life scenarios. Metallic carriages were compared with two composite options: hybrid steel-composite and full-composite carriages. The total planned production for this regional Korean train was 440 cars, with an annual production volume of 80 cars. Results and discussion The coupled analyses were used to generate plots of cost versus energy consumption and environmental impacts. The results show that the raw material and manufacturing phase costs are approximately half of the total life cycle costs, whilst their environmental impact is relatively insignificant (3-8%). The use phase of the car-body has the largest environmental impact for all scenarios, with near negligible contributions from the other phases. Since steel rail carriages weigh more (27-51%), the use phase cost is correspondingly higher, resulting in both the greatest environmental impact and the highest life cycle cost. Compared to the steel scenario, the hybrid composite variant has a lower life cycle cost (16%) and a lower environmental impact (26%). Though the full composite rail carriage may have the highest manufacturing cost, it results in the lowest total life cycle costs and lowest environmental impacts. Conclusions and recommendations This coupled cost and life cycle assessment showed that the full composite variant was the optimum solution. This case study showed that coupling of technical cost models with life cycle assessment offers an efficient route to accurately evaluate economic and environmental performance in a consistent way.

Development of Craniofacial Bone Defect Reconstruction Implant Based on Fibre-Reinforced Composite with Photopolymerisable Resin Systems. Experimental studies in vitro and in vivo.

Reconstruction of defects in the craniomaxillofacial (CMF) area has mainly been based on bone grafts or metallic fixing plates and screws. Particularly in the case of large calvarial and/or craniofacial defects caused by trauma, tumours or congenital malformations, there is a need for reliable reconstruction biomaterials, because bone grafts or metallic fixing systems do not completely fulfill the criteria for the best possible reconstruction methods in these complicated cases. In this series of studies, the usability of fibre-reinforced composite (FRC) was studied as a biostable, nonmetallic alternative material for reconstructing artificially created bone defects in frontal and calvarial areas of rabbits. The experimental part of this work describes the different stages of the product development process from the first in vitro tests with resin-impregnated fibrereinforced composites to the in vivo animal studies, in which this FRC was tested as an implant material for reconstructing different size bone defects in rabbit frontal and calvarial areas. In the first in vitro study, the FRC was polymerised in contact with bone or blood in the laboratory. The polymerised FRC samples were then incubated in water, which was analysed for residual monomer content by using high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). It was found that this in vitro polymerisation in contact with bone and blood did not markedly increase the residual monomer leaching from the FRC. In the second in vitro study, different adhesive systems were tested in fixing the implant to bone surface. This was done to find an alternative implant fixing system to screws and pins. On the basis of this study, it was found that the surface of the calvarial bone needed both mechanical and chemical treatments before the resinimpregnated FRC could be properly fixed onto it. In three animal studies performed with rabbit frontal bone defects and critical size calvarial bone defect models, biological responses to the FRC implants were evaluated. On the basis of theseevaluations, it can be concluded that the FRC, based on E-glass (electrical glass) fibres forming a porous fibre veil enables the ingrowth of connective tissues to the inner structures of the material, as well as the bone formation and mineralization inside the fibre veil. Bone formation could be enhanced by using bioactive glass granules fixed to the FRC implants. FRC-implanted bone defects healed partly; no total healing of defects was achieved. Biological responses during the follow-up time, at a maximum of 12 weeks, to resin-impregnated composite implant seemed to depend on the polymerization time of the resin matrix of the FRC. Both of the studied resin systems used in the FRC were photopolymerised and the heat-induced postpolymerisation was used additionally.

Conditional maximum likelihood timing recovery: estimators and bounds

This paper is concerned with the derivation of new estimators and performance bounds for the problem of timing estimation of (linearly) digitally modulated signals. The conditional maximum likelihood (CML) method is adopted, in contrast to the classical low-SNR unconditional ML (UML) formulationthat is systematically applied in the literature for the derivationof non-data-aided (NDA) timing-error-detectors (TEDs). A new CML TED is derived and proved to be self-noise free, in contrast to the conventional low-SNR-UML TED. In addition, the paper provides a derivation of the conditional Cramér–Rao Bound (CRB ), which is higher (less optimistic) than the modified CRB (MCRB)[which is only reached by decision-directed (DD) methods]. It is shown that the CRB is a lower bound on the asymptotic statisticalaccuracy of the set of consistent estimators that are quadratic with respect to the received signal. Although the obtained boundis not general, it applies to most NDA synchronizers proposed in the literature. A closed-form expression of the conditional CRBis obtained, and numerical results confirm that the CML TED attains the new bound for moderate to high Eg/No.

The role of financial and accounting methods as estimators of intrinsic value: the Tubacex case

En aquest treball estudiem si el valor intrínsec de Tubacex entre 1994-2013 coincideix amb la seva tendència bursàtil a llarg termini, tenint en compte part de la teoria defensada per Shiller. També verifiquem la possible infravaloració de l’acció de Tubacex a 31/12/13. A la primera part expliquem els principals mètodes de valoració d’empreses y a la segona part fem una anàlisi del sector en el que opera Tubacex (acer inoxidable) i calculem el valor de l’acció de Tubacex per mitjà de tres mètodes de valoració (Free Cash Flow, Cash Flow i Valor en Llibres). Apliquem aquests tres mètodes de valoració per verificar si com a mínim algun d’ells coincideix amb la tendència bursàtil a llarg termini.

Independent sources of condition dependency and multiple pathways determine a composite trait: lessons from carotenoid-based plumage colouration.

Many colour ornaments are composite traits consisting of at least four components, which themselves may be more complex, determined by independent evolutionary pathways, and potentially being under different environmental control. To date, little evidence exists that several different components of colour elaboration are condition dependent and no direct evidence exists that different ornamental components are affected by different sources of variation. For example, in carotenoid-based plumage colouration, one of the best-known condition-dependent ornaments, colour elaboration stems from both condition-dependent pigment concentration and structural components. Some environmental flexibility of these components has been suggested, but specifically which and how they are affected remains unknown. Here, we tested whether multiple colour components may be condition dependent, by using a comprehensive 3 × 2 experimental design, in which we carotenoid supplemented and immune challenged great tit nestlings (Parus major) and quantified effects on different components of colouration. Plumage colouration was affected by an interaction between carotenoid availability and immune challenge. Path analyses showed that carotenoid supplementation increased plumage saturation via feather carotenoid concentration and via mechanisms unrelated to carotenoid deposition, while immune challenge affected feather length, but not carotenoid concentration. Thus, independent condition-dependent pathways, affected by different sources of variation, determine colour elaboration. This provides opportunities for the evolution of multiple signals within components of ornamental traits. This finding indicates that the selective forces shaping the evolution of different components of a composite trait and the trait's signal content may be more complex than believed so far, and that holistic approaches are required for drawing comprehensive evolutionary conclusions.

Macrofossils in Raraku Lake (Easter Island) integrated with sedimentary and geochemical records towards a palaeoecological synthesis for the last 34,000 years

Macrofossil analysis of a composite 19 m long sediment core from Rano Raraku Lake (Easter Island)was related to litho-sedimentary and geochemical features of the sediment. Strong stratigraphical patterns are shown by indirect gradient analyses of the data. The good correspondence between the stratigraphical patterns derived from macrofossil (Correspondence Analysis) and sedimentary and geochemical data (Principal Component Analysis) shows that macrofossil associations provide sound palaeolimnological information in conjunction with sedimentary data. The main taphonomic factors in fluencing the macrofossil assemblages are run-off from the catchment, the littoral plant belt, and the depositional environment within the basin. Five main stages during the last 34,000 calibrated years BP (cal yr BP) are characterised from the lithological, geochemical, and macrofossil data. From 34 to 14.6 cal kyr BP (last glacial period) the sediments were largely derived from the catchment, indicating a high energy lake environment with much erosion and run-off bringing abundant plant trichomes, lichens, and mosses into the centre of Raraku Lake.

Fiber-reinforced Composite as Oral Implant Material. Experimental studies of glass fiber and bioactive glass in vitro and in vivo

Fiber-reinforced composite as oral implant material: Experimental studies of glass fiber and bioactive glass in vitro and in vivo Department of Prosthetic Dentistry and Biomaterials Science, Institute of Dentistry, University of Turku, Turku, Finland 2008. Biocompatibility and mechanical properties are important variables that need to be determined when new materials are considered for medical implants. Special emphasis was placed on these characteristics in the present work, which aimed to investigate the potential of fiber-reinforced composite (FRC) material as an oral implant. Furthermore, the purpose of this study was to explore the effect of bioactive glass (BAG) on osseointegration of FRC implants. The biocompatibility and mechanical properties of FRC implants were studied both in vitro and in vivo. The mechanical properties of the bulk FRC implant were tested with a cantilever bending test, torsional test and push-out test. The biocompatibility was first evaluated with osteoblast cells cultured on FRC substrates. Bone bonding was determined with the mechanical push-out test and histological as well as histomorplanimetric evaluation. Implant surface was characterized with SEM and EDS analysis. The results of these studies showed that FRC implants can withstand the static load values comparably to titanium. Threaded FRC implants had significantly higher push-out strength than the threaded titanium implants. Cell culture study revealed no cytotoxic effect of FRC materials on the osteoblast-like-cells. Addition of BAG particles enhanced cell proliferation and mineralization of the FRC substrates The in vivo study showed that FRC implants can withstand static loading until failure without fracture. The results also suggest that the FRC implant is biocompatible in bone. The biological behavior of FRC was comparable to that of titanium after 4 and 12 weeks of implantation. Furthermore, addition of BAG to FRC implant increases peri-implant osteogenesis and bone maturation.

Under what conditions? Therapist and client characteristics moderate the role of change talk in brief motivational intervention.

OBJECTIVE: Client change talk has been proposed as a mechanism of change in motivational interviewing (MI) by mediating the link between therapist MI-consistent behaviors (MICO) and client behavioral outcomes. We tested under what circumstances this mechanism was supported in the context of a clinical trial of brief MI for heavy drinking among nontreatment seeking young men. METHOD: We conducted psycholinguistic coding of 174 sessions using the MI Skill Code 2.1 and derived the frequency of MICO and the strength of change talk (CTS) averaged over the session. CTS was examined as a mediator of the relationship between MICO and a drinking composite score measured at 3-month follow-up, controlling for the composite measure at baseline. Finally, we tested therapist gender and MI experience as well as client readiness to change and alcohol problem severity as moderators of this mediation model. RESULTS: CTS significantly predicted outcome (higher strength related to less drinking), but MICO did not predict CTS. However, CTS mediated the relationship between MICO and drinking outcomes when therapists had more experience in MI and when clients had more severe alcohol problems (i.e., significant conditional indirect effects). CONCLUSIONS: The mechanism hypothesized by MI theory was operative in our brief MI with heavy drinking young men, but only under particular conditions. Our results suggest that attention should be paid to therapist selection, training, and/or supervision until they reach a certain level of competence, and that MI might not be appropriate for nontreatment seeking clients drinking at a lower level of risk. (PsycINFO Database Record

Formal Education, Mismatch and Wages After Transition: Assessing the Impact of Unobserved Heterogeneity using Matching Estimators

This paper studies the incidence and consequences of the mismatch between formal education and the educational requirements of jobs in Estonia during the years 1997-2003. We fi nd large wage penalties associated with the phenomenon of educational mismatch. Moreover, the incidence and wage penalty of mismatches increase with age. This suggests that structural educational mismatches can occur after fast transition periods. Our results are robust for various methodologies, and more importantly regarding departures from the exogeneity assumptions inherent in the matching estimators used in our analysis