Quantitative risk assessment of groundwater quality utilizing GIS technology and coupled groundwater models

The thesis presents a two-dimensional Risk Assessment Method (RAM) where the assessment of risk to the groundwater resources incorporates both the quantification of the probability of the occurrence of contaminant source terms, as well as the assessment of the resultant impacts. The approach emphasizes the need for a greater dependency on the potential pollution sources, rather than the traditional approach where assessment is based mainly on the intrinsic geo-hydrologic parameters. The risk is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation methods whereby random pollution events were generated to the same distribution as historically occurring events or a priori potential probability distribution. Integrated mathematical models then simulate contaminant concentrations at the predefined monitoring points within the aquifer. The spatial and temporal distributions of the concentrations were calculated from repeated realisations, and the number of times when a user defined concentration magnitude was exceeded is quantified as a risk. The method was setup by integrating MODFLOW-2000, MT3DMS and a FORTRAN coded risk model, and automated, using a DOS batch processing file. GIS software was employed in producing the input files and for the presentation of the results. The functionalities of the method, as well as its sensitivities to the model grid sizes, contaminant loading rates, length of stress periods, and the historical frequencies of occurrence of pollution events were evaluated using hypothetical scenarios and a case study. Chloride-related pollution sources were compiled and used as indicative potential contaminant sources for the case study. At any active model cell, if a random generated number is less than the probability of pollution occurrence, then the risk model will generate synthetic contaminant source term as an input into the transport model. The results of the applications of the method are presented in the form of tables, graphs and spatial maps. Varying the model grid sizes indicates no significant effects on the simulated groundwater head. The simulated frequency of daily occurrence of pollution incidents is also independent of the model dimensions. However, the simulated total contaminant mass generated within the aquifer, and the associated volumetric numerical error appear to increase with the increasing grid sizes. Also, the migration of contaminant plume advances faster with the coarse grid sizes as compared to the finer grid sizes. The number of daily contaminant source terms generated and consequently the total mass of contaminant within the aquifer increases in a non linear proportion to the increasing frequency of occurrence of pollution events. The risk of pollution from a number of sources all occurring by chance together was evaluated, and quantitatively presented as risk maps. This capability to combine the risk to a groundwater feature from numerous potential sources of pollution proved to be a great asset to the method, and a large benefit over the contemporary risk and vulnerability methods.

Ability assessment and job structure measures in occupational mobility

Recent and potential changes in technology have resulted in the anticipation of increases in the frequency of job changes. This has led manpower policy makers to investigate the feasibility of incorporating the employment skills of job groups in the general prediction of future job learning and performance with a view to the establishment of "job families" within which transfer might be considered reciprocally high. A structured job analysis instrument (the Position Analysis Questionnaire) is evaluated in terms of two distinct sets of scores; job dimensions and synthetically established attribute/trait profiles. Studies demonstrate that estimates of a job's structure/dimensions and requisite human attributes can be reliably established. Three alternative techniques of statistically assembling profiles of the requisite human attributes for jobs are found to have differential levels of reliability and differential degrees of validity in their estimation of the "actual" ability requirements of jobs. The utility of these two sets of job descriptors to serve as representations of the cognitive structure similarity of job groups is investigated in a study which simulates a job transfer situation. The central role of the index of similarity used to assess the relationship between "target" and "present" job is demonstrated. The relative extents to which job structure similarity and job attribute similariity are associated with positive transfer are investigated. The studies demonstrate that the dimensions of jobs, and more fruitfully their requisite human attributes can serve as bases to predict job transfer learning and performance. The nature of the index of similarity used to optimally formulate predictions of transfer is such that networks of jobs might be establishable to which current job incumbents could be expected to transfer positively. The derivation of "job families" with anticipated reciprocal transfer consequences is considered to be less appropriate.

Achieving continuous improvement through self-assessment

In 2007 the UK Office of Government Commerce was mandated to carry out Procurement Capability Reviews (PCR) across the 16 top spending UK Government Departments. Since then, this programme has evolved into a self assessment based approach which is markedly different from the original approach. Will the move from a centre-led strategic review of procurement capability to a department-led model based on self assessment continue to strengthen and improve procurement capability across Central Civil Government? OGC is currently working with UK Government Departments to carry out their PCRs using a self-assessment tool which incorporates qualitative and quantitative measures. Results are generated based on a capability maturity model. The results are assured independently. OGC expectations are that tangible and measurable capability improvements will be realised when departments embed the self-assessment model and implement the findings as part of a continuous improvement regime. This paper is a case study, using some relevant literature to reflect on past and possible future development of the PCR self assessment scheme.

Concepts and methods of quantitative assessment of risk to groundwater resources

This work presents a two-dimensional approach of risk assessment method based on the quantification of the probability of the occurrence of contaminant source terms, as well as the assessment of the resultant impacts. The risk is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation methods whereby synthetic contaminant source terms were generated to the same distribution as historically occurring pollution events or a priori potential probability distribution. The spatial and temporal distributions of the generated contaminant concentrations at pre-defined monitoring points within the aquifer were then simulated from repeated realisations using integrated mathematical models. The number of times when user defined ranges of concentration magnitudes were exceeded is quantified as risk. The utilities of the method were demonstrated using hypothetical scenarios, and the risk of pollution from a number of sources all occurring by chance together was evaluated. The results are presented in the form of charts and spatial maps. The generated risk maps show the risk of pollution at each observation borehole, as well as the trends within the study area. This capability to generate synthetic pollution events from numerous potential sources of pollution based on historical frequency of their occurrence proved to be a great asset to the method, and a large benefit over the contemporary methods.

Representing the assessment process for psychodynamic psychotherapy within a computerized model of human classification

This research describes a computerized model of human classification which has been constructed to represent the process by which assessments are made for psychodynamic psychotherapy. The model assigns membership grades (MGs) to clients so that the most suitable ones have high values in the therapy category. Categories consist of a hierarchy of components, one of which, ego strength, is analysed in detail to demonstrate the way it has captured the psychotherapist's knowledge. The bottom of the hierarchy represents the measurable factors being assessed during an interview. A questionnaire was created to gather the identified information and was completed by the psychotherapist after each assessment. The results were fed into the computerized model, demonstrating a high correlation between the model MGs and the suitability ratings of the psychotherapist (r = .825 for 24 clients). The model has successfully identified the relevant data involved in assessment and simulated the decision-making process of the expert. Its cognitive validity enables decisions to be explained, which means that it has potential for therapist training and also for enhancing the referral process, with benefits in cost effectiveness as well as in the reduction of trauma to clients. An adapted version measuring client improvement would give quantitative evidence for the benefit of therapy, thereby supporting auditing and accountability. © 1997 The British Psychological Society.

Evaluating choices:the role of corpora in translation choices and target text assessment

Translation training in the university context needs to train students in the processes, in order to enhance and optimise the product as outcome of these processes. Evaluation of a target text as product has often been accused of being a subjective process, which does not easily lend itself to the type of feedback that could enable students to apply criteria more widely. For students, it often seems as though they make different inappropriate or incorrect choices every time they translate a new text, and the learning process appears unpredictable and haphazard. Within functionalist approaches to translation, with their focus on the target text in terms of functional adequacy to the intended purpose, as stipulated in the translation brief, there are guidelines for text production that can help to develop a more systematic approach not only to text production, but also to translation evaluation. In the context of a focus on user knowledge needs, target language conventions and acceptability, the use of corpora is an indispensable tool for the trainee translator. Evaluation can take place against the student's own reasoned selection process, based on hard evidence, against criteria which currently obtain in the TL and the TL culture. When trainee and evaluator work within the same guidelines, there is more scope for constructive learning and feedback.

Postural control is not systematically related to reading skills:implications for the assessment of balance as a risk factor for developmental dyslexia

Impaired postural control has been associated with poor reading skills, as well as with lower performance on measures of attention and motor control variables that frequently co-occur with reading difficulties. Measures of balance and motor control have been incorporated into several screening batteries for developmental dyslexia, but it is unclear whether the relationship between such skills and reading manifests as a behavioural continuum across the range of abilities or is restricted to groups of individuals with specific disorder phenotypes. Here were obtained measures of postural control alongside measures of reading, attention and general cognitive skills in a large sample of young adults (n = 100). Postural control was assessed using centre of pressure (CoP) measurements, obtained over 5 different task conditions. Our results indicate an absence of strong statistical relationships between balance measures with either reading, cognitive or attention measures across the sample as a whole. © 2014 Loras et al.

Interface Engineering and Design: Adaptibility Problems

* The research work reviewed in this paper has been carried out in the context of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research funded project “Adaptable Intelligent Interfaces Research and Development for Distance Learning Systems”(grant N 02-01-81019). The authors wish to acknowledge the co-operation with the Byelorussian partners of this project.

Assessment Criteria for Non-auditorial Educational Forms in Informatics

Report published in the Proceedings of the National Conference on "Education in the Information Society", Plovdiv, May, 2013

Signal processing of physiological signals for automated assessment of stress in computer users

The need to provide computers with the ability to distinguish the affective state of their users is a major requirement for the practical implementation of affective computing concepts. This dissertation proposes the application of signal processing methods on physiological signals to extract from them features that can be processed by learning pattern recognition systems to provide cues about a person's affective state. In particular, combining physiological information sensed from a user's left hand in a non-invasive way with the pupil diameter information from an eye-tracking system may provide a computer with an awareness of its user's affective responses in the course of human-computer interactions. In this study an integrated hardware-software setup was developed to achieve automatic assessment of the affective status of a computer user. A computer-based "Paced Stroop Test" was designed as a stimulus to elicit emotional stress in the subject during the experiment. Four signals: the Galvanic Skin Response (GSR), the Blood Volume Pulse (BVP), the Skin Temperature (ST) and the Pupil Diameter (PD), were monitored and analyzed to differentiate affective states in the user. Several signal processing techniques were applied on the collected signals to extract their most relevant features. These features were analyzed with learning classification systems, to accomplish the affective state identification. Three learning algorithms: Naïve Bayes, Decision Tree and Support Vector Machine were applied to this identification process and their levels of classification accuracy were compared. The results achieved indicate that the physiological signals monitored do, in fact, have a strong correlation with the changes in the emotional states of the experimental subjects. These results also revealed that the inclusion of pupil diameter information significantly improved the performance of the emotion recognition system. ^