Development of prediction models for freeway incident durations using data mining techniques

The nation's freeway systems are becoming increasingly congested. A major contribution to traffic congestion on freeways is due to traffic incidents. Traffic incidents are non-recurring events such as accidents or stranded vehicles that cause a temporary roadway capacity reduction, and they can account for as much as 60 percent of all traffic congestion on freeways. One major freeway incident management strategy involves diverting traffic to avoid incident locations by relaying timely information through Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) devices such as dynamic message signs or real-time traveler information systems. The decision to divert traffic depends foremost on the expected duration of an incident, which is difficult to predict. In addition, the duration of an incident is affected by many contributing factors. Determining and understanding these factors can help the process of identifying and developing better strategies to reduce incident durations and alleviate traffic congestion. A number of research studies have attempted to develop models to predict incident durations, yet with limited success. ^ This dissertation research attempts to improve on this previous effort by applying data mining techniques to a comprehensive incident database maintained by the District 4 ITS Office of the Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT). Two categories of incident duration prediction models were developed: "offline" models designed for use in the performance evaluation of incident management programs, and "online" models for real-time prediction of incident duration to aid in the decision making of traffic diversion in the event of an ongoing incident. Multiple data mining analysis techniques were applied and evaluated in the research. The multiple linear regression analysis and decision tree based method were applied to develop the offline models, and the rule-based method and a tree algorithm called M5P were used to develop the online models. ^ The results show that the models in general can achieve high prediction accuracy within acceptable time intervals of the actual durations. The research also identifies some new contributing factors that have not been examined in past studies. As part of the research effort, software code was developed to implement the models in the existing software system of District 4 FDOT for actual applications. ^

Time, Cost, and Environmental Impact Analysis for Sustainable Design at Multiple Building Levels

Construction projects are complex endeavors that require the involvement of different professional disciplines in order to meet various project objectives that are often conflicting. The level of complexity and the multi-objective nature of construction projects lend themselves to collaborative design and construction such as integrated project delivery (IPD), in which relevant disciplines work together during project conception, design and construction. Traditionally, the main objectives of construction projects have been to build in the least amount of time with the lowest cost possible, thus the inherent and well-established relationship between cost and time has been the focus of many studies. The importance of being able to effectively model relationships among multiple objectives in building construction has been emphasized in a wide range of research. In general, the trade-off relationship between time and cost is well understood and there is ample research on the subject. However, despite sustainable building designs, relationships between time and environmental impact, as well as cost and environmental impact, have not been fully investigated. The objectives of this research were mainly to analyze and identify relationships of time, cost, and environmental impact, in terms of CO2 emissions, at different levels of a building: material level, component level, and building level, at the pre-use phase, including manufacturing and construction, and the relationships of life cycle cost and life cycle CO2 emissions at the usage phase. Additionally, this research aimed to develop a robust simulation-based multi-objective decision-support tool, called SimulEICon, which took construction data uncertainty into account, and was capable of incorporating life cycle assessment information to the decision-making process. The findings of this research supported the trade-off relationship between time and cost at different building levels. Moreover, the time and CO2 emissions relationship presented trade-off behavior at the pre-use phase. The results of the relationship between cost and CO2 emissions were interestingly proportional at the pre-use phase. The same pattern continually presented after the construction to the usage phase. Understanding the relationships between those objectives is a key in successfully planning and designing environmentally sustainable construction projects.

A utilização da pesquisa operacional para o gerenciamento dos leitos em um hospital particular: estudo de caso baseado em simulação computacional

The hospital is a place of complex actions, where several activities for serving the population are performed such as: medical appointments, exams, surgeries, emergency care, admission in wards and ICUs. These activities are mixed with anxiety, impatience, despair and distress of patients and their families, issues involving emotional balance both for professionals who provide services for them as for people cared by them. The healthcare crisis in Brazil is getting worse every year and today, constitutes a major problem for private hospitals. The patient that comes to emergencies progressively increase, and in contrast, there is no supply of hospital beds in the same proportion, causing overcrowding, declines in the quality of care delivered to patients, drain of professionals of the health area and difficulty in management the beds. This work presents a study that seeks to create an alternative tool that can contribute to the management of a private hospital beds. It also seeks to identify potential issues or deficiencies and therefore make changes in flow for an increase in service capacity, thus reducing costs without compromising the quality of services provided. The tool used was the Computational Simulation –based in discrete event, which aims to identify the main parameters to be considered for a proper modeling of this system. This study took as reference the admission of a private hospital, based on the current scenario, where your apartments are in saturation level as its occupancy rate. The relocation of project beds aims to meet the growing demand for surgeries and hospital admissions observed by the current administration.

Critério de correntropia no treinamento de redes fuzzy wavelet neural networks para identificação de sistemas dinâmicos não lineares

The great interest in nonlinear system identification is mainly due to the fact that a large amount of real systems are complex and need to have their nonlinearities considered so that their models can be successfully used in applications of control, prediction, inference, among others. This work evaluates the application of Fuzzy Wavelet Neural Networks (FWNN) to identify nonlinear dynamical systems subjected to noise and outliers. Generally, these elements cause negative effects on the identification procedure, resulting in erroneous interpretations regarding the dynamical behavior of the system. The FWNN combines in a single structure the ability to deal with uncertainties of fuzzy logic, the multiresolution characteristics of wavelet theory and learning and generalization abilities of the artificial neural networks. Usually, the learning procedure of these neural networks is realized by a gradient based method, which uses the mean squared error as its cost function. This work proposes the replacement of this traditional function by an Information Theoretic Learning similarity measure, called correntropy. With the use of this similarity measure, higher order statistics can be considered during the FWNN training process. For this reason, this measure is more suitable for non-Gaussian error distributions and makes the training less sensitive to the presence of outliers. In order to evaluate this replacement, FWNN models are obtained in two identification case studies: a real nonlinear system, consisting of a multisection tank, and a simulated system based on a model of the human knee joint. The results demonstrate that the application of correntropy as the error backpropagation algorithm cost function makes the identification procedure using FWNN models more robust to outliers. However, this is only achieved if the gaussian kernel width of correntropy is properly adjusted.

Adaptive Brain-Computer Interface Systems For Communication in People with Severe Neuromuscular Disabilities

Brain-computer interfaces (BCI) have the potential to restore communication or control abilities in individuals with severe neuromuscular limitations, such as those with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). The role of a BCI is to extract and decode relevant information that conveys a user's intent directly from brain electro-physiological signals and translate this information into executable commands to control external devices. However, the BCI decision-making process is error-prone due to noisy electro-physiological data, representing the classic problem of efficiently transmitting and receiving information via a noisy communication channel.

This research focuses on P300-based BCIs which rely predominantly on event-related potentials (ERP) that are elicited as a function of a user's uncertainty regarding stimulus events, in either an acoustic or a visual oddball recognition task. The P300-based BCI system enables users to communicate messages from a set of choices by selecting a target character or icon that conveys a desired intent or action. P300-based BCIs have been widely researched as a communication alternative, especially in individuals with ALS who represent a target BCI user population. For the P300-based BCI, repeated data measurements are required to enhance the low signal-to-noise ratio of the elicited ERPs embedded in electroencephalography (EEG) data, in order to improve the accuracy of the target character estimation process. As a result, BCIs have relatively slower speeds when compared to other commercial assistive communication devices, and this limits BCI adoption by their target user population. The goal of this research is to develop algorithms that take into account the physical limitations of the target BCI population to improve the efficiency of ERP-based spellers for real-world communication.

In this work, it is hypothesised that building adaptive capabilities into the BCI framework can potentially give the BCI system the flexibility to improve performance by adjusting system parameters in response to changing user inputs. The research in this work addresses three potential areas for improvement within the P300 speller framework: information optimisation, target character estimation and error correction. The visual interface and its operation control the method by which the ERPs are elicited through the presentation of stimulus events. The parameters of the stimulus presentation paradigm can be modified to modulate and enhance the elicited ERPs. A new stimulus presentation paradigm is developed in order to maximise the information content that is presented to the user by tuning stimulus paradigm parameters to positively affect performance. Internally, the BCI system determines the amount of data to collect and the method by which these data are processed to estimate the user's target character. Algorithms that exploit language information are developed to enhance the target character estimation process and to correct erroneous BCI selections. In addition, a new model-based method to predict BCI performance is developed, an approach which is independent of stimulus presentation paradigm and accounts for dynamic data collection. The studies presented in this work provide evidence that the proposed methods for incorporating adaptive strategies in the three areas have the potential to significantly improve BCI communication rates, and the proposed method for predicting BCI performance provides a reliable means to pre-assess BCI performance without extensive online testing.

A constraint and position identification (CPI) approach for the synthesis of decoupled spatial translational compliant parallel manipulators

This paper introduces a screw theory based method termed constraint and position identification (CPI) approach to synthesize decoupled spatial translational compliant parallel manipulators (XYZ CPMs) with consideration of actuation isolation. The proposed approach is based on a systematic arrangement of rigid stages and compliant modules in a three-legged XYZ CPM system using the constraint spaces and the position spaces of the compliant modules. The constraint spaces and the position spaces are firstly derived based on the screw theory instead of using the rigid-body mechanism design experience. Additionally, the constraint spaces are classified into different constraint combinations, with typical position spaces depicted via geometric entities. Furthermore, the systematic synthesis process based on the constraint combinations and the geometric entities is demonstrated via several examples. Finally, several novel decoupled XYZ CPMs with monolithic configurations are created and verified by finite elements analysis. The present CPI approach enables experts and beginners to synthesize a variety of decoupled XYZ CPMs with consideration of actuation isolation by selecting an appropriate constraint and an optimal position for each of the compliant modules according to a specific application.

High-speed label-free functional photoacoustic microscopy of mouse brain in action.

We present fast functional photoacoustic microscopy (PAM) for three-dimensional high-resolution, high-speed imaging of the mouse brain, complementary to other imaging modalities. We implemented a single-wavelength pulse-width-based method with a one-dimensional imaging rate of 100 kHz to image blood oxygenation with capillary-level resolution. We applied PAM to image the vascular morphology, blood oxygenation, blood flow and oxygen metabolism in both resting and stimulated states in the mouse brain.

Evaporation maps for ternary non-ideal liquid mixtures

This thesis deals with the evaporation of non-ideal liquid mixtures using a multicomponent mass transfer approach. It develops the concept of evaporation maps as a convenient way of representing the dynamic composition changes of ternary mixtures during an evaporation process. Evaporation maps represent the residual composition of evaporating ternary non-ideal mixtures over the full range of composition, and are analogous to the commonly-used residue curve maps of simple distillation processes. The evaporation process initially considered in this work involves gas-phase limited evaporation from a liquid or wetted-solid surface, over which a gas flows at known conditions. Evaporation may occur into a pure inert gas, or into one pre-loaded with a known fraction of one of the ternary components. To explore multicomponent masstransfer effects, a model is developed that uses an exact solution to the Maxwell-Stefan equations for mass transfer in the gas film, with a lumped approach applied to the liquid phase. Solutions to the evaporation model take the form of trajectories in temperaturecomposition space, which are then projected onto a ternary diagram to form the map. Novel algorithms are developed for computation of pseudo-azeotropes in the evaporating mixture, and for calculation of the multicomponent wet-bulb temperature at a given liquid composition. A numerical continuation method is used to track the bifurcations which occur in the evaporation maps, where the composition of one component of the pre-loaded gas is the bifurcation parameter. The bifurcation diagrams can in principle be used to determine the required gas composition to produce a specific terminal composition in the liquid. A simple homotopy method is developed to track the locations of the various possible pseudo-azeotropes in the mixture. The stability of pseudo-azeotropes in the gas-phase limited case is examined using a linearized analysis of the governing equations. Algorithms for the calculation of separation boundaries in the evaporation maps are developed using an optimization-based method, as well as a method employing eigenvectors derived from the linearized analysis. The flexure of the wet-bulb temperature surface is explored, and it is shown how evaporation trajectories cross ridges and valleys, so that ridges and valleys of the surface do not coincide with separation boundaries. Finally, the assumption of gas-phase limited mass transfer is relaxed, by employing a model that includes diffusion in the liquid phase. A finite-volume method is used to solve the system of partial differential equations that results. The evaporation trajectories for the distributed model reduce to those of the lumped (gas-phase limited) model as the diffusivity in the liquid increases; under the same gas-phase conditions the permissible terminal compositions of the distributed and lumped models are the same.

Visibilidad y percepción en la construcción de un paisaje Prehistórico. El caso de Calviá (Mallorca, Islas Baleares)

El presente trabajo se centra en el estudio del papel que juega el control visual del espacio en las prácticas sociales de las comunidades prehistóricas. Este trabajo se articula a partir de un estudio de caso, el término municipal de Calviá, situado en el sureste de la isla de Mallorca, para analizar las diferentes formas de monumentalidad arquitectónica y cómo estas se constituyen cómo un punto de referencia social dentro del paisaje. Partiendo de una amplia horquilla temporal, que abarcaría el Bronce Naviforme (1550-850 AC), el período Talayótico (850-550 AC) y el Postalayótico (550-123 AC), se propone analizar los cambios y pervivencias en la construcción del paisaje, a través de estrategias de visibilidad, percepción y movimiento alrededor de los monumentos arquitectónicos. A través de la perspectiva de la Arqueología del Paisaje y mediante el uso de Sistemas de Información Geográfica (SIG) se propone un análisis de tendencias a largo plazo en la configuración social de un paisaje.

Achievable rates and outage probability of cognitive radio with dynamic frequency hopping under imperfect spectrum sensing

In this study, the authors propose simple methods to evaluate the achievable rates and outage probability of a cognitive radio (CR) link that takes into account the imperfectness of spectrum sensing. In the considered system, the CR transmitter and receiver correlatively sense and dynamically exploit the spectrum pool via dynamic frequency hopping. Under imperfect spectrum sensing, false-alarm and miss-detection occur which cause impulsive interference emerged from collisions due to the simultaneous spectrum access of primary and cognitive users. That makes it very challenging to evaluate the achievable rates. By first examining the static link where the channel is assumed to be constant over time, they show that the achievable rate using a Gaussian input can be calculated accurately through a simple series representation. In the second part of this study, they extend the calculation of the achievable rate to wireless fading environments. To take into account the effect of fading, they introduce a piece-wise linear curve fitting-based method to approximate the instantaneous achievable rate curve as a combination of linear segments. It is then demonstrated that the ergodic achievable rate in fast fading and the outage probability in slow fading can be calculated to achieve any given accuracy level.

Point of view filming and the elicitation interview

Face-to-face interviews are a fundamental research tool in qualitative research. Whilst this form of data collection can provide many valuable insights, it can often fall short of providing a complete picture of a research subject's experiences. Point of view (PoV) interviewing is an elicitation technique used in the social sciences as a means of enriching data obtained from research interviews. Recording research subjects' first person perspectives, for example by wearing digital video glasses, can afford deeper insights into their experiences. PoV interviewing can promote making visible the unverbalizable and does not rely as much on memory as the traditional interview. The use of such relatively inexpensive technology is gaining interest in health profession educational research and pedagogy, such as dynamic simulation-based learning and research activities. In this interview, Dr Gerry Gormley (a medical education researcher) talks to Dr Jonathan Skinner (an anthropologist with an interest in PoV interviewing), exploring some of the many crossover implications with PoV interviewing for medical education research and practice.

Real-time depth camera tracking with CAD models and ICP

In recent years, depth cameras have been widely utilized in camera tracking for augmented and mixed reality. Many of the studies focus on the methods that generate the reference model simultaneously with the tracking and allow operation in unprepared environments. However, methods that rely on predefined CAD models have their advantages. In such methods, the measurement errors are not accumulated to the model, they are tolerant to inaccurate initialization, and the tracking is always performed directly in reference model's coordinate system. In this paper, we present a method for tracking a depth camera with existing CAD models and the Iterative Closest Point (ICP) algorithm. In our approach, we render the CAD model using the latest pose estimate and construct a point cloud from the corresponding depth map. We construct another point cloud from currently captured depth frame, and find the incremental change in the camera pose by aligning the point clouds. We utilize a GPGPU-based implementation of the ICP which efficiently uses all the depth data in the process. The method runs in real-time, it is robust for outliers, and it does not require any preprocessing of the CAD models. We evaluated the approach using the Kinect depth sensor, and compared the results to a 2D edge-based method, to a depth-based SLAM method, and to the ground truth. The results show that the approach is more stable compared to the edge-based method and it suffers less from drift compared to the depth-based SLAM.

Plane detection from monocular image sequences

AIRES, Kelson R. T. ; ARAÚJO, Hélder J. ; MEDEIROS, Adelardo A. D. . Plane Detection from Monocular Image Sequences. In: VISUALIZATION, IMAGING AND IMAGE PROCESSING, 2008, Palma de Mallorca, Spain. Proceedings..., Palma de Mallorca: VIIP, 2008

Plane Detection Using Affine Homography

AIRES, Kelson R. T.; ARAÚJO, Hélder J.; MEDEIROS, Adelardo A. D. Plane Detection Using Affine Homography. In: CONGRESSO BRASILEIRO DE AUTOMÁTICA, 2008, Juiz de Fora, MG: Anais... do CBA 2008.

Neuronal Assembly Detection and Cell Membership Specification by Principal Component Analysis

LOPES-DOS-SANTOS, V. , CONDE-OCAZIONEZ, S. ; NICOLELIS, M. A. L. , RIBEIRO, S. T. , TORT, A. B. L. . Neuronal assembly detection and cell membership specification by principal component analysis. Plos One, v. 6, p. e20996, 2011.