A New Test of the Real Interest Rate Parity Hypothesis: Bounds Approach and Structural Breaks

We test the real interest rate parity hypothesis using data for the G7 countries over the period 1970-2008. Our contribution is two-fold. First, we utilize the ARDL bounds approach of Pesaran et al. (2001) which allows us to overcome uncertainty about the order of integration of real interest rates. Second, we test for structural breaks in the underlying relationship using the multiple structural breaks test of Bai and Perron (1998, 2003). Our results indicate significant parameter instability and suggest that, despite the advances in economic and financial integration, real interest rate parity has not fully recovered from a breakdown in the 1980s.

A Panel Data Investigation of Real Exchange Rate Misalignment and Growth

The paper investigates the role of real exchange rate misalignment on long-run growth for a set of ninety countries using time series data from 1980 to 2004. We first estimate a panel data model (using fixed and random effects) for the real exchange rate, with different model specifications, in order to produce estimates of the equilibrium real exchange rate and this is then used to construct measures of real exchange rate misalignment. We also provide an alternative set of estimates of real exchange rate misalignment using panel cointegration methods. The variables used in our real exchange rate models are: real per capita GDP; net foreign assets; terms of trade and government consumption. The results for the two-step System GMM panel growth models indicate that the coefficients for real exchange rate misalignment are positive for different model specification and samples, which means that a more depreciated (appreciated) real exchange rate helps (harms) long-run growth. The estimated coefficients are higher for developing and emerging countries.

Convergencia real y envejecimiento: retos y propuestas

España se enfrenta en las próximas décadas a dos grandes retos económicos y sociales: completar el proceso de convergencia en renta y bienestar con los países de nuestro entorno y asegurar la sostenibilidad del Estado del bienestar en un contexto demográfico desfavorable. La superación de estos retos exigirá reformas en muchos ámbitos para cuya implementación sería muy deseable contar con un amplio consenso político y social. Tras examinar la situación actual de la economía española y su evolución durante las últimas décadas desde una perspectiva comparada con la OCDE, en el presente trabajo se examinan las reformas necesarias en tres ámbitos que consideramos cruciales: educación, mercados de trabajo y de bienes y servicios, y sistema de pensiones.

When to Quit Under Uncertainty? A real options approach to smoking cessation

This paper models the decision to quit smoking like an investment decision where the quitter incurs a sunk withdrawal cost today and forgoes their consumer surplus from cigarettes (invests) and hopes to reap an uncertain reward of better health and therefore higher utility in the future (return). We show that a risk-averse mature smoker who expects to benefit from quitting may still rationally choose to delay quitting until they are more confident that quitting is the right decision for them. Such a decision by the smoker is due to the value associated with keeping their option of whether or not to quit open as they learn more about the damage that smoking will have on their future utility. Policies which reduce a smoker’s uncertainty about the damage that smoking with have on their future utility is likely to make them quit earlier.

Co-movements in Real Effective Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Dynamic Hierarchical Factor Model

We analyze and quantify co-movements in real effective exchange rates while considering the regional location of countries. More specifically, using the dynamic hierarchical factor model (Moench et al. (2011)), we decompose exchange rate movements into several latent components; worldwide and two regional factors as well as country-specific elements. Then, we provide evidence that the worldwide common factor is closely related to monetary policies in large advanced countries while regional common factors tend to be captured by those in the rest of the countries in a region. However, a substantial proportion of the variation in the real exchange rates is reported to be country-specific; even in Europe country-specific movements exceed worldwide and regional common factors.

Cyclical and Welfare Effects of Public Sector Unions in a Real-Business-Cycle Model

Motivated by the highly-unionized public sectors, the high public shares in total employment, and the public sector wage premia observed in Europe, this paper examines the importance of public sector unions for macroeconomic theory. The model generates cyclical behavior in hours and wages that is consistent with data behavior in an economy with highly-unionized public sector, namely Germany during the period 1970-2007. The union model is a signifi cant improvement over a model with exogenous public employment. In addition, endogenously-determined public wage and hours add to the distortionary e ffect of contractionary tax reforms by generating greater tax rate changes, thus producing signi ficantly higher welfare losses.

On the cost of rent-seeking by government bureaucrats in a Real-Business-Cycle framework

This paper studies the wasteful e ffect of bureaucracy on the economy by addressing the link between rent-seeking behavior of government bureaucrats and the public sector wage bill, which is taken to represent the rent component. In particular, public o fficials are modeled as individuals competing for a larger share of those public funds. The rent-seeking extraction technology in the government administration is modeled as in Murphy et al. (1991) and incorporated in an otherwise standard Real-Business-Cycle (RBC) framework with public sector. The model is calibrated to German data for the period 1970-2007. The main fi ndings are: (i) Due to the existence of a signi ficant public sector wage premium and the high public sector employment, a substantial amount of working time is spent rent-seeking, which in turn leads to signifi cant losses in terms of output; (ii) The measures for the rent-seeking cost obtained from the model for the major EU countries are highly-correlated to indices of bureaucratic ineffi ciency; (iii) Under the optimal scal policy regime,steady-state rent-seeking is smaller relative to the exogenous policy case, as the government chooses a higher public wage premium, but sets a much lower public employment, thus achieving a decrease in rent-seeking.

On the real effects of financial pressure: Evidence from euro area firm-level employment during the recent financial crisis.

Using a large panel of unquoted euro-area firms over the period 2003-11, this paper examines the impact of financial pressure on firms’ employment. The analysis finds evidence that financial pressure negatively affects firms’ employment decisions. This effect is stronger during the 2007-2009 financial crisis, especially for firms in the periphery area compared to their counterparts in the core European economies. We also find that impact of financial pressure on employment is more potent for firms classified as financially constrained and operating in periphery economies during the financial crisis.

Analyzing aggregate real exchange rate persistence through the lens of sectoral data

In this paper we analyze the persistence of aggregate real exchange rates (RERs) for a group of EU-15 countries by using sectoral data. The tight relation between aggregate and sectoral persistence recently investigated by Mayoral (2008) allows us to decompose aggregate RER persistence into the persistence of its different subcomponents. We show that the distribution of sectoral persistence is highly heterogeneous and very skewed to the right, and that a limited number of sectors are responsible for the high levels of persistence observed at the aggregate level. We use quantile regression to investigate whether the traditional theories proposed to account for the slow reversion to parity (lack of arbitrage due to nontradibilities or imperfect competition and price stickiness) are able to explain the behavior of the upper quantiles of sectoral persistence. We conclude that pricing to market in the intermediate goods sector together with price stickiness have more explanatory power than variables related to the tradability of the goods or their inputs.

Scene classifier for real time road detection

L’objectiu principal del projecte és el de classificar escenes de carretera en funció del contingut de les imatges per així poder fer un desglossament sobre quin tipus de situació tenim en el moment. És important que fixem els paràmetres necessaris en funció de l’escenari en què ens trobem per tal de treure el màxim rendiment possible a cada un dels algoritmes. La seva funcionalitat doncs, ha de ser la d’avís i suport davant els diferents escenaris de conducció. És a dir, el resultat final ha de contenir un algoritme o aplicació capaç de classificar les imatges d’entrada en diferents tipus amb la màxima eficiència espacial i temporal possible. L’algoritme haurà de classificar les imatges en diferents escenaris. Els algoritmes hauran de ser parametritzables i fàcilment manejables per l’usuari. L’eina utilitzada per aconseguir aquests objectius serà el MATLAB amb les toolboxs de visió i xarxes neuronals instal·lades.

Real-time PCR for type-specific identification of herpes simplex in clinical samples: evaluation of type-specific results in the context of CNS diseases.

BACKGROUND: HSV-1 and HSV-2 cause CNS infections of dissimilar clinico-pathological characteristics with prognostic and therapeutic implications. OBJECTIVES: To validate a type-specific real-time PCR that uses MGB/LNA Taqman probes and to review the virologico-clinical data of 25 eligible patients with non-neonatal CNS infections. RESULTS: This real-time PCR was evaluated against conventional PCR (26 CSF and 20 quality controls), and LightCycler assay (51 mucocutaneous, 8 CSF and 32 quality controls) and culture/immunofluorescence (75 mucocutaneous) to assess typing with independent methods. Taqman real-time PCR detected 240 HSV genomes per ml CSF, a level appropriate for the management of patients, and provided unambiguous typing for the 104 positive (62 HSV-1 and 42 HSV-2) out the 160 independent clinical samples tested. HSV type diagnosed by Taqman real-time PCR predicted final diagnosis (meningitis versus encephalitis/meningoencephalitis, p<0.001) in 24/25 patients at time of presentation, in contrast to clinical evaluation. CONCLUSIONS: Our real-time PCR, as a sensitive and specific means for type-specific HSV diagnosis, provided rapid prognostic information for patient management.

An Introduction to parametric and non-parametric models for bivariate positive insurance claim severity distributions

We present a real data set of claims amounts where costs related to damage are recorded separately from those related to medical expenses. Only claims with positive costs are considered here. Two approaches to density estimation are presented: a classical parametric and a semi-parametric method, based on transformation kernel density estimation. We explore the data set with standard univariate methods. We also propose ways to select the bandwidth and transformation parameters in the univariate case based on Bayesian methods. We indicate how to compare the results of alternative methods both looking at the shape of the overall density domain and exploring the density estimates in the right tail.

Interleukin-28B polymorphisms, IP-10, viral load and age predict the outcome of therapy in genotype 1 hepatitis C virus under real-life conditions

Background and Aims: IL28B polymorphisms, interferon (IFN)-gamma inducible protein-10 (IP-10) levels and the homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) score have been reported to predict rapid (RVR) and sustained (SVR) virological response in chronic hepatitis C (CHC), but it is not known whether these factors represent independent, clinically useful predictors. The aim of the study was to assess factors (including IL28B polymorphisms, IP-10 levels and HOMA-IR score) independently predicting response to therapy in CHC under real life conditions.Methods: Multivariate analysis of factors predicting RVR and SVR in 280 consecutive, treatment-naive CHC patients treated with pegylated IFN alpha and ribavirin in a prospective multicenter study.Results: Independent predictors of RVR were HCV RNA < 400,000 IU/ml (OR11.37; 95% CI 3.03-42.6), rs12980275 AA (vs. AG/GG) (OR 7.09; 1.97-25.56) and IP-10 (OR 0.04; 0.003-0.56) in HCV genotype 1 patients and lower baseline γ-glutamyl-transferase levels (OR = 0.02; 0.0009-0.31) in HCV genotype 3 patients. Independent predictors of SVR were rs12980275 AA (OR 9.68; 3.44-27.18), age < 40 yrs (OR = 4.79; 1.50-15.34) and HCV RNA < 400,000 IU/ml (OR 2.74; 1.03-7.27) in HCV genotype 1 patients and rs12980275 AA (OR = 6.26; 1.98-19.74) and age < 40 yrs (OR 5.37; 1.54-18.75) in the 88 HCV genotype 1 patients without a RVR. RVR was by itself predictive of SVR in HCV genotype 1 patients (32 of 33, 97%; OR 33.0; 4.06-268.32) and the only independent predictor of SVR in HCV genotype 2 (OR 9.0, 1.72-46.99; p=0.009) or 3 patients (OR 7.8, 1.43-42.67; p=0.01).Conclusions: In HCV genotype 1 patients, IL28B polymorphisms, HCV RNA load and IP-10 independently predict RVR. The combination of IL28B polymorphisms, HCV RNA level and age may yield more accurate pretreatment prediction of SVR. HOMA-IR score is not associated with viral response.

Efectos de lo real. Discursos acerca de los cuerpos artificiales

Los cuerpos artificiales ( muñecos, autómatas, maniquíes) son tratados a través de tres tipos de discurso: del artificio, de la mirada y del deseo. Esta perspectiva permite abordarlos, no como representaciones ni como dobles (Döppelgänger) sino como significantes en el discurso , como objetos de deseo y como puntos de articulación de la mirada. En el discurso del artificio se pasa revista al binomio natural/artificial y , a través de distintos textos , El tratado de Hombre de René Descarrtes, la “teoría de los maniquíes” y la “generatio aequivoca” de Bruno Schulz, y el film Jidlo (Comida) de Jan Svankmajer, se hace lo propio con los paradigmas desde los que se ha metaforizado al cuerpo humano. En el discurso de la mirada, se los aborda desde la perspectiva psicoanalítica del campo escópico, a través de El hombre de la arena, de ETA Hoffmann. Los discursos del deseo tratan de algunos aspectos de esta pulsión : el deseo masculino desde La Eva futura de Villiers de l’Isle Adam, el “deseo de hijo”, a través del film Otesánek de Jan Svankmajer y la genericidad del deseo en dos novelas de Gaston Leroux , La muñeca sangrienta y la máquina de asesinar . Los cuerpos artificiales, así, podrían ser considerados, en su potencia significativa, no ya como dobles , sino como efectos de lo real, como “pequeños otros”, como “objetos a” lacanianos y como simulacros.