926 resultados para Process models


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Dua and Miller (1996) created leading and coincident employment indexes for the state of Connecticut, following Moore's (1981) work at the national level. The performance of the Dua-Miller indexes following the recession of the early 1990s fell short of expectations. This paper performs two tasks. First, it describes the process of revising the Connecticut Coincident and Leading Employment Indexes. Second, it analyzes the statistical properties and performance of the new indexes by comparing the lead profiles of the new and old indexes as well as their out-of-sample forecasting performance, using the Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) method. The new indexes show improved performance in dating employment cycle chronologies. The lead profile test demonstrates that superiority in a rigorous, non-parametric statistic fashion. The mixed evidence on the BVAR forecasting experiments illustrates the truth in the Granger and Newbold (1986) caution that leading indexes properly predict cycle turning points and do not necessarily provide accurate forecasts except at turning points, a view that our results support.

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This paper shows that optimal policy and consistent policy outcomes require the use of control-theory and game-theory solution techniques. While optimal policy and consistent policy often produce different outcomes even in a one-period model, we analyze consistent policy and its outcome in a simple model, finding that the cause of the inconsistency with optimal policy traces to inconsistent targets in the social loss function. As a result, the central bank should adopt a loss function that differs from the social loss function. Carefully designing the central bank s loss function with consistent targets can harmonize optimal and consistent policy. This desirable result emerges from two observations. First, the social loss function reflects a normative process that does not necessarily prove consistent with the structure of the microeconomy. Thus, the social loss function cannot serve as a direct loss function for the central bank. Second, an optimal loss function for the central bank must depend on the structure of that microeconomy. In addition, this paper shows that control theory provides a benchmark for institution design in a game-theoretical framework.

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This paper analyzes whether the Congressional budget process (instituted in 1974) leads to lower aggregate spending than does the piece-meal appropriations process that preceded it. Previous theoretical analysis, using spatial models of legislator preferences, is inconclusive. This paper uses a model of interest group lobbying, where a legislature determines spending on a national public good and on subsidies to subsets of the population that belong to nationwide sector-specific interest groups. In the appropriations process, the Appropriations Committee proposes a budget, maximizing the joint welfare of voters and the interest groups, that leads to overspending on subsidies. In the budget process, a Budget Committee proposes an aggregate level of spending (the budget resolution); the Appropriations Committee then proposes a budget. If the lobby groups are not subject to a binding resource constraint, the two institutional structures lead to identical outcomes. With such a constraint, however, there is a free rider problem among the groups in lobbying the Budget Committee, as each group only obtains a small fraction of the benefits from increasing the aggregate budget. If the number of groups is sufficiently large, each takes the budget resolution as given, and lobbies only the Appropriations Committee. The main results are that aggregate spending is lower, and social welfare higher, under the budget process; however, provision of the public good is suboptimal. The paper also presents two extensions: the first endogenizes the enforcement of the budget resolution by incorporating the relevant procedural rules into the model. The second analyzes statutory budget rules that limit spending levels, but can be revised by a simple majority vote. In each case,the free rider problem prevents the groups from securing the required changes to procedural and budget rules.

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This paper proposes asymptotically optimal tests for unstable parameter process under the feasible circumstance that the researcher has little information about the unstable parameter process and the error distribution, and suggests conditions under which the knowledge of those processes does not provide asymptotic power gains. I first derive a test under known error distribution, which is asymptotically equivalent to LR tests for correctly identified unstable parameter processes under suitable conditions. The conditions are weak enough to cover a wide range of unstable processes such as various types of structural breaks and time varying parameter processes. The test is then extended to semiparametric models in which the underlying distribution in unknown but treated as unknown infinite dimensional nuisance parameter. The semiparametric test is adaptive in the sense that its asymptotic power function is equivalent to the power envelope under known error distribution.

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Introduction: The Texas Occupational Safety & Health Surveillance System (TOSHSS) was created to collect, analyze and interpret occupational injury and illness data in order to decrease the impact of occupational injuries within the state of Texas. This process evaluation was performed midway through the 4-year grant to assess the efficiency and effectiveness of the surveillance system’s planning and implementation activities1. ^ Methods: Two evaluation guidelines published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) were used as the theoretical models for this process evaluation. The Framework for Program Evaluation in Public Health was used to examine the planning and design of TOSHSS using logic models. The Framework for Evaluating Public Health Surveillance Systems was used to examine the implementation of approximately 60 surveillance activities, including uses of the data obtained from the surveillance system. ^ Results/Discussion: TOSHSS planning activities omitted the creation of a scientific advisory committee and specific activities designed to maintain contacts with stakeholders; and proposed activities should be reassessed and aligned with ongoing performance measurement criteria, including the role of collaborators in helping the surveillance system achieve each proposed activity. TOSHSS implementation activities are substantially meeting expectations and received an overall score of 61% for all activities being performed. TOSHSS is considered a surveillance system that is simple, flexible, acceptable, fairly stable, timely, moderately useful, with good data quality and a PVP of 86%. ^ Conclusions: Through the third year of TOSHSS implementation, the surveillance system is has made a considerable contribution to the collection of occupational injury and illness information within the state of Texas. Implementation of the nine recommendations provided under this process evaluation is expected to increase the overall usefulness of the surveillance system and assist TDSHS in reducing occupational fatalities, injuries, and diseases within the state of Texas. ^ 1 Disclaimer: The Texas Occupational Safety and Health Surveillance System is supported by Grant/Cooperative Agreement Number (U60 OH008473-01A1). The content of the current evaluation are solely the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official views of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health.^

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The paper investigates the possibility of constructing a new measurement for analysing international fragmentation of the production process. It asserts that the current usage of relevant data, whether the trade shares of parts and components or the index of Vertical Specialisation, is quite unsatisfactory for measuring the phenomenon, since they critically lack the overall perspective of the entire structure of production chains.  The new measurement is formulated such that it captures every aspect of the vertical sequence of production linkages. It is based on the input-output model of Average Propagation Lengths, recently developed by Eric Dietzenbacher and others, which show the average number of production stages that are passed through for an exogenous change in one industry to affect another. By applying this model to the data of the Asian International Input-Output Tables, the index is able to measure the international dimension of production sharing and division of labour in East Asia.

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The Arab monarchies of the Gulf have been undergoing striking socio-economic changes caused by the ending of the rent-based welfare state model on which they had largely relied since the 1950s. In this perspective, this paper aims at examining the comparative role of local business communities in affecting the orientations and the outcomes of the policies implemented during the period of high oil prices in the 2000s. This paper pays a special attention to the impact of the Arab Spring on the state-business relations in two of the smaller Gulf monarchies (Bahrain and Oman).

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The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of the underlying factors in the process of transferring technology from university to industry. Findings point to strategic importance of critical factors as the definition of common objectives, cooperation, motivation, and the elimination of technical and legal barriers. These challenges must have implications in the incorporation of cooperative aspects of research projects in the design of public innovation policies.

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This paper proposes the use of Factored Translation Models (FTMs) for improving a Speech into Sign Language Translation System. These FTMs allow incorporating syntactic-semantic information during the translation process. This new information permits to reduce significantly the translation error rate. This paper also analyses different alternatives for dealing with the non-relevant words. The speech into sign language translation system has been developed and evaluated in a specific application domain: the renewal of Identity Documents and Driver’s License. The translation system uses a phrase-based translation system (Moses). The evaluation results reveal that the BLEU (BiLingual Evaluation Understudy) has improved from 69.1% to 73.9% and the mSER (multiple references Sign Error Rate) has been reduced from 30.6% to 24.8%.

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Large-scale structure formation can be modeled as a nonlinear process that transfers energy from the largest scales to successively smaller scales until it is dissipated, in analogy with Kolmogorov’s cascade model of incompressible turbulence. However, cosmic turbulence is very compressible, and vorticity plays a secondary role in it. The simplest model of cosmic turbulence is the adhesion model, which can be studied perturbatively or adapting to it Kolmogorov’s non-perturbative approach to incompressible turbulence. This approach leads to observationally testable predictions, e.g., to the power-law exponent of the matter density two-point correlation function.

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Innovations in the current interconnected world of organizations have lead to a focus on business models as a fundamental statement of direction and identity. Although industry transformations generally emanate from technological changes, recent examples suggest they may also be due to the introduction of new business models. In the past, different types of airline business models could be clearly separated from each other. However, this has changed in recent years partly due to the concentration process and partly to reaction caused by competitive pressure. At least it can be concluded that in future the distinction of different business models will remain less clear. To advance the use of business models as a concept, it is essential to be able to compare and perform analyses to identify the business models that may have the highest potential. This can essentially contribute to understanding the synergies and incompatibilities in the case of two airlines that are going in for a merger. This is illustrated by the example of Swiss Air-Lufthansa merger analysis. The idea is to develop quantitative methods and tools for comparing and analyzing Aeronautical/Airline business models. The paper identifies available methods of comparing airline business models and lays the ground work for a quantitative model of comparing airline business models. This can be a useful tool for business model analysis when two airlines are merged

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The deviation of calibration coefficients from five cup anemometer models over time was analyzed. The analysis was based on a series of laboratory calibrations between January 2001 and August 2010. The analysis was performed on two different groups of anemometers: (1) anemometers not used for any industrial purpose (that is, just stored); and (2) anemometers used in different industrial applications (mainly in the field—or outside—applications like wind farms). Results indicate a loss of performance of the studied anemometers over time. In the case of the unused anemometers the degradation shows a clear pattern. In the case of the anemometers used in the field, the data analyzed also suggest a loss of performance, yet the degradation does not show a clear trend. A recalibration schedule is proposed based on the observed performances variations

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The focus of this paper is to outline the main structure of an alternative solution to implement a Software Process Improvement program in Small-Settings using the outsourcing infrastructure. This solution takes the advantages of the traditional outsourcing models and applies its structure to propose an alternative solution to make available a Software Process Improvement program for Small-Settings. With this outsourcing solution it is possible share the resources between several Small-Settings.

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To optimize the last high temperature step of a standard solar cell fabrication process (the contact cofiring step), the aluminium gettering is incorporated in the Impurity-to-Efficiency simulation tool, so that it models the phosphorus and aluminium co-gettering effect on iron impurities. The impact of iron on the cell efficiency will depend on the balance between precipitate dissolution and gettering. Gettering efficiency is similar in a wide range of peak temperatures (600-850 ºC), so that this peak temperature can be optimized favoring other parameters (e.g. ohmic contact). An industrial co-firing step can enhance the co-gettering effect by adding a temperature plateau after the peak of temperature. For highly contaminated materials, a short plateau (menor que 2 min) at low temperature (600 ºC) is shown to reduce the dissolved iron.

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Information integration is a very important topic. Reusing the knowledge and having common representations have been (and it is) an active research topic in the process systems community. Conventional (structural) But only structural models have been dealt with so far. In this paper the issue of integration is related with two types of different knowledge, functional and structural. Functional representation and analysis have proved very useful, but still it is developed and presented in a completely isolated way from the classic structural description of the process. This paper presents an architecture to integrate both representations.