Defining Sales and Operations Planning Process in an Environmental Management Company

Sales and operations research publications have increased significantly in the last decades. The concept of sales and operations planning (S&OP) has gained increased recognition and has been put forward as the area within Supply Chain Management (SCM). Development of S&OP is based on the need for determining future actions, both for sales and operations, since off-shoring, outsourcing, complex supply chains and extended lead times make challenges for responding to changes in the marketplace when they occur. Order intake of the case company has grown rapidly during the last years. Along with the growth, new challenges considering data management and information flow have arisen due to increasing customer orders. To manage these challenges, case company has implemented S&OP process, though initial process is in early stage and due to this, the process is not managing the increased customer orders adequately. Thesis objective is to explore extensively the S&OP process content of the case company and give further recommendations. Objectives are categorized into six different groups, to clarify the purpose of this thesis. Qualitative research methods used are active participant observation, qualitative interviews, enquiry, education, and a workshop. It is notable that demand planning was felt as cumbersome, so it is typically the biggest challenge in S&OP process. More proactive the sales forecasting can be, more expanded the time horizon of operational planning will turn out. S&OP process is 60 percent change management, 30 percent process development and 10 percent technology. The change management and continuous improvement can sometimes be arduous and set as secondary. It is important that different people are required to improve the process and the process is constantly evaluated. As well as, process governance is substantially in a central role and it has to be managed consciously. Generally, S&OP process was seen important and all the stakeholders were committed to the process. Particular sections were experienced more important than others, depending on the stakeholders’ point of views. Recommendations to objective groups are evaluated by the achievable benefit and resource requirement. The urgent and easily implemented improvement recommendations should be executed firstly. Next steps are to develop more coherent process structure and refine cost awareness. Afterwards demand planning, supply planning, and reporting should be developed more profoundly. For last, information technology system should be implemented to support the process phases.

Analysis of the Change Management Process in a Multinational Company

The purpose of this thesis was to study change management and find out how the theory applies to practise with the help of studying an organizational change process. The goal was to investigate the different ways of the change management and how those could be utilized in practise. The purpose was also to see what kind of tools and information packages for change management the company involved has developed and taken in to use and check if these could have been utilized in the change process studied in this thesis. This thesis was established by studying the theory of change management and interviewing the people involved in the organizational change and the stakeholders. The questions were formed in line with the change management theory. The main theory used was John P. Kotter’s Eight Steps of Change. The study revealed valuable details about change processes in real life and concrete improvement ideas were recognized from the interviews. Overall the people were quite happy with the outcome of the change process. There were also some failures identified in this change process. Most probably those can be avoided in the future if people planning the change are familiar with the company’s new information packages and tools for change management. Change management is a complex area that is still today quite often forgotten by companies. Effective change management can give a huge competitive advantage for a company. Acknowledging that change process is always complex and not easy is already a good step forward in handling change processes. All changes need change management and understanding the way people react on change. A good and efficient change management is the key to make the change process smooth and easier for the people involved.

Modelling of changes in electricity end-use and their impacts on electricity distribution

The electricity distribution sector will face significant changes in the future. Increasing reliability demands will call for major network investments. At the same time, electricity end-use is undergoing profound changes. The changes include future energy technologies and other advances in the field. New technologies such as microgeneration and electric vehicles will have different kinds of impacts on electricity distribution network loads. In addition, smart metering provides more accurate electricity consumption data and opportunities to develop sophisticated load modelling and forecasting approaches. Thus, there are both demands and opportunities to develop a new type of long-term forecasting methodology for electricity distribution. The work concentrates on the technical and economic perspectives of electricity distribution. The doctoral dissertation proposes a methodology to forecast electricity consumption in the distribution networks. The forecasting process consists of a spatial analysis, clustering, end-use modelling, scenarios and simulation methods, and the load forecasts are based on the application of automatic meter reading (AMR) data. The developed long-term forecasting process produces power-based load forecasts. By applying these results, it is possible to forecast the impacts of changes on electrical energy in the network, and further, on the distribution system operator’s revenue. These results are applicable to distribution network and business planning. This doctoral dissertation includes a case study, which tests the forecasting process in practice. For the case study, the most prominent future energy technologies are chosen, and their impacts on the electrical energy and power on the network are analysed. The most relevant topics related to changes in the operating environment, namely energy efficiency, microgeneration, electric vehicles, energy storages and demand response, are discussed in more detail. The study shows that changes in electricity end-use may have radical impacts both on electrical energy and power in the distribution networks and on the distribution revenue. These changes will probably pose challenges for distribution system operators. The study suggests solutions for the distribution system operators on how they can prepare for the changing conditions. It is concluded that a new type of load forecasting methodology is needed, because the previous methods are no longer able to produce adequate forecasts.

Modelling the simultaneous effects of intellectual capital and knowledge management on the organisational performance of Finnish companies

The aim of this study was to contribute to the current knowledge-based theory by focusing on a research gap that exists in the empirically proven determination of the simultaneous but differentiable effects of intellectual capital (IC) assets and knowledge management (KM) practices on organisational performance (OP). The analysis was built on the past research and theoreticised interactions between the latent constructs specified using the survey-based items that were measured from a sample of Finnish companies for IC and KM and the dependent construct for OP determined using information available from financial databases. Two widely used and commonly recommended measures in the literature on management science, i.e. the return on total assets (ROA) and the return on equity (ROE), were calculated for OP. Thus the investigation of the relationship between IC and KM impacting OP in relation to the hypotheses founded was possible to conduct using objectively derived performance indicators. Using financial OP measures also strengthened the dynamic features of data needed in analysing simultaneous and causal dependences between the modelled constructs specified using structural path models. The estimates were obtained for the parameters of structural path models using a partial least squares-based regression estimator. Results showed that the path dependencies between IC and OP or KM and OP were always insignificant when analysed separate to any other interactions or indirect effects caused by simultaneous modelling and regardless of the OP measure used that was either ROA or ROE. The dependency between the constructs for KM and IC appeared to be very strong and was always significant when modelled simultaneously with other possible interactions between the constructs and using either ROA or ROE to define OP. This study, however, did not find statistically unambiguous evidence for proving the hypothesised causal mediation effects suggesting, for instance, that the effects of KM practices on OP are mediated by the IC assets. Due to the fact that some indication about the fluctuations of causal effects was assessed, it was concluded that further studies are needed for verifying the fundamental and likely hidden causal effects between the constructs of interest. Therefore, it was also recommended that complementary modelling and data processing measures be conducted for elucidating whether the mediation effects occur between IC, KM and OP, the verification of which requires further investigations of measured items and can be build on the findings of this study.

Development and Effect Analysis of the Asteri Consultative Auditing Process - Safety and Security Management in Educational Institutions

The Finnish legislation requires for a safe and secure learning environment. However, the comprehensive, risk based safety and security management (SSM) and the management commitment in the implementation and development of the SSM are not mentioned in the legislation. Multiple institutions, operators and researchers have studied and developed safety and security in educational institutions over the past decade. Typically the approach has been fragmented and without bringing up the importance of the comprehensive SSM. The development needs of the safety and security operations in universities have been studied. However, in universities of applied sciences (UASs) and in elementary schools (ESs), the performance level, strengths and weaknesses of the comprehensive SSM have not been studied. The objective of this study was to develop the comprehensive, risk based SSM of educational institutions by developing the new Asteri consultative auditing process and study its effects on auditees. Furthermore, the performance level in the comprehensive SSM in UASs and ESs were studied using Asteri and the TUTOR model developed by the Keski-Uusimaa Department for Rescue Services. In addition, strengths, development needs and differences were identified. In total, 76 educational institutions were audited between the years 2011 and 2014. The study is based on logical empiricism, and an observational applied research design was used. Auditing, observation and an electronic survey were used for data collection. Statistical analysis was used to analyze the collected information. In addition, thematic analysis was used to analyze the development areas of the organizations mentioned by the respondents in the survey. As one of the main contributions, this research presents the new Asteri consultative auditing process. Organizations with low performance levels on the audited subject benefit the most from the Asteri consultative auditing process. Asteri may be usable in many different types of audits, not only in SSM audits. As a new result, this study provides new knowledge on attitudes related to auditing. According to the research findings, auditing may generate negative attitudes and the auditor should take them into account when planning and preparing for audits. Negative attitudes can be compensated by producing added value, objectivity and positivity for the audit and, thus, improve the positive effects of auditing on knowledge and skills. Moreover, as the results of this study shows, auditing safety and security issues do not increase feelings of insecurity, but rather increase feelings of safety and security when using the new Asteri consultative auditing process with the TUTOR model. The results showed that the SSM in the audited UASs was statistically significantly more advanced than that in the audited ESs. However, there is still room for improvement in the ESs and the UASs as the approach to the SSM was fragmented. It can be assumed that the majority of Finnish UASs and ESs do not likely meet the basic level of the comprehensive, risk based the SSM.

Dynamic Modelling of Circulating Fluidized Bed Plant with Gas Turbine Repowering

Increasing amount of renewable energy source based electricity production has set high load control requirements for power grid balance markets. The essential grid balance between electricity consumption and generation is currently hard to achieve economically with new-generation solutions. Therefore conventional combustion power generation will be examined in this thesis as a solution to the foregoing issue. Circulating fluidized bed (CFB) technology is known to have sufficient scale to acts as a large grid balancing unit. Although the load change rate of the CFB unit is known to be moderately high, supplementary repowering solution will be evaluated in this thesis for load change maximization. The repowering heat duty is delivered to the CFB feed water preheating section by smaller gas turbine (GT) unit. Consequently, steam extraction preheating may be decreased and large amount of the gas turbine exhaust heat may be utilized in the CFB process to reach maximum plant electrical efficiency. Earlier study of the repowering has focused on the efficiency improvements and retrofitting to maximize plant electrical output. This study however presents the CFB load change improvement possibilities achieved with supplementary GT heat. The repowering study is prefaced with literature and theory review for both of the processes to maximize accuracy of the research. Both dynamic and steady-state simulations accomplished with APROS simulation tool will be used to evaluate repowering effects to the CFB unit operation. Eventually, a conceptual level analysis is completed to compare repowered plant performance to the state-of-the-art CFB performance. Based on the performed simulations, considerably good improvements to the CFB process parameters are achieved with repowering. Consequently, the results show possibilities to higher ramp rate values achieved with repowered CFB technology. This enables better plant suitability to the grid balance markets.

Performance Degradation Modelling and Techno-Economic Analysis of Lithium-Ion Battery Energy Storage Systems

Transmission system operators and distribution system operators are experiencing new challenges in terms of reliability, power quality, and cost efficiency. Although the potential of energy storages to face those challenges is recognized, the economic implications are still obscure, which introduce the risk into the business models. This thesis aims to investigate the technical and economic value indicators of lithium-ion battery energy storage systems (BESS) in grid-scale applications. In order to do that, a comprehensive performance lithium-ion BESS model with degradation effects estimation is developed. The model development process implies literature review on lifetime modelling, use, and modification of previous study progress, building the additional system parts and integrating it into a complete tool. The constructed model is capable of describing the dynamic behavior of the BESS voltage, state of charge, temperature and capacity loss. Five control strategies for BESS unit providing primary frequency regulation are implemented, in addition to the model. The questions related to BESS dimensioning and the end of life (EoL) criterion are addressed. Simulations are performed with one-month real frequency data acquired from Fingrid. The lifetime and cost-benefit analysis of the simulation results allow to compare and determine the preferable control strategy. Finally, the study performs the sensitivity analysis of economic profitability with variable size, EoL and system price. The research reports that BESS can be profitable in certain cases and presents the recommendations.

Modelling and Analysis of Some Time Series

The thesis deals with some of the non-linear Gaussian and non-Gaussian time models and mainly concentrated in studying the properties and application of a first order autoregressive process with Cauchy marginal distribution. In this thesis some of the non-linear Gaussian and non-Gaussian time series models and mainly concentrated in studying the properties and application of a order autoregressive process with Cauchy marginal distribution. Time series relating to prices, consumptions, money in circulation, bank deposits and bank clearing, sales and profit in a departmental store, national income and foreign exchange reserves, prices and dividend of shares in a stock exchange etc. are examples of economic and business time series. The thesis discuses the application of a threshold autoregressive(TAR) model, try to fit this model to a time series data. Another important non-linear model is the ARCH model, and the third model is the TARCH model. The main objective here is to identify an appropriate model to a given set of data. The data considered are the daily coconut oil prices for a period of three years. Since it is a price data the consecutive prices may not be independent and hence a time series based model is more appropriate. In this study the properties like ergodicity, mixing property and time reversibility and also various estimation procedures used to estimate the unknown parameters of the process.

Information Discovery in Distributed Systems-A Novel Concept Based on Modelling of Information Elements

Sharing of information with those in need of it has always been an idealistic goal of networked environments. With the proliferation of computer networks, information is so widely distributed among systems, that it is imperative to have well-organized schemes for retrieval and also discovery. This thesis attempts to investigate the problems associated with such schemes and suggests a software architecture, which is aimed towards achieving a meaningful discovery. Usage of information elements as a modelling base for efficient information discovery in distributed systems is demonstrated with the aid of a novel conceptual entity called infotron.The investigations are focused on distributed systems and their associated problems. The study was directed towards identifying suitable software architecture and incorporating the same in an environment where information growth is phenomenal and a proper mechanism for carrying out information discovery becomes feasible. An empirical study undertaken with the aid of an election database of constituencies distributed geographically, provided the insights required. This is manifested in the Election Counting and Reporting Software (ECRS) System. ECRS system is a software system, which is essentially distributed in nature designed to prepare reports to district administrators about the election counting process and to generate other miscellaneous statutory reports.Most of the distributed systems of the nature of ECRS normally will possess a "fragile architecture" which would make them amenable to collapse, with the occurrence of minor faults. This is resolved with the help of the penta-tier architecture proposed, that contained five different technologies at different tiers of the architecture.The results of experiment conducted and its analysis show that such an architecture would help to maintain different components of the software intact in an impermeable manner from any internal or external faults. The architecture thus evolved needed a mechanism to support information processing and discovery. This necessitated the introduction of the noveI concept of infotrons. Further, when a computing machine has to perform any meaningful extraction of information, it is guided by what is termed an infotron dictionary.The other empirical study was to find out which of the two prominent markup languages namely HTML and XML, is best suited for the incorporation of infotrons. A comparative study of 200 documents in HTML and XML was undertaken. The result was in favor ofXML.The concept of infotron and that of infotron dictionary, which were developed, was applied to implement an Information Discovery System (IDS). IDS is essentially, a system, that starts with the infotron(s) supplied as clue(s), and results in brewing the information required to satisfy the need of the information discoverer by utilizing the documents available at its disposal (as information space). The various components of the system and their interaction follows the penta-tier architectural model and therefore can be considered fault-tolerant. IDS is generic in nature and therefore the characteristics and the specifications were drawn up accordingly. Many subsystems interacted with multiple infotron dictionaries that were maintained in the system.In order to demonstrate the working of the IDS and to discover the information without modification of a typical Library Information System (LIS), an Information Discovery in Library Information System (lDLIS) application was developed. IDLIS is essentially a wrapper for the LIS, which maintains all the databases of the library. The purpose was to demonstrate that the functionality of a legacy system could be enhanced with the augmentation of IDS leading to information discovery service. IDLIS demonstrates IDS in action. IDLIS proves that any legacy system could be augmented with IDS effectively to provide the additional functionality of information discovery service.Possible applications of IDS and scope for further research in the field are covered.

Stochastic Modelling Using Markov Chains

Department of Statistics, Cochin University of Science and Technology

Dynamics of Rifting Along the Southwest Continental margin of India Through Coherence and Process oriented Analysis of Gravity Data

Department of Marine Geology and Geophysics,Cochin University of Science and Technology

Information discovery in distributed systems - A novel concept based on modelling of information elements

This thesis attempts to investigate the problems associated with such schemes and suggests a software architecture, which is aimed towards achieving a meaningful discovery. Usage of information elements as a modelling base for efficient information discovery in distributed systems is demonstrated with the aid of a novel conceptual entity called infotron. The investigations are focused on distributed systems and their associated problems. The study was directed towards identifying suitable software architecture and incorporating the same in an environment where information growth is phenomenal and a proper mechanism for carrying out information discovery becomes feasible. An empirical study undertaken with the aid of an election database of constituencies distributed geographically, provided the insights required. This is manifested in the Election Counting and Reporting Software (ECRS) System. ECRS system is a software system, which is essentially distributed in nature designed to prepare reports to district administrators about the election counting process and to generate other miscellaneous statutory reports.

Modellbasiertes Service Level Management verteilter Anwendungssysteme

Zur Senkung von Kosten werden in vielen Unternehmen Dienstleistungen, die nicht zur Kernkompetenz gehören, an externe Dienstleister ausgelagert. Dieser Prozess wird auch als Outsourcing bezeichnet. Die dadurch entstehenden Abhängigkeiten zu den externen Dienstleistern werden mit Hilfe von Service Level Agreements (SLAs) vertraglich geregelt. Die Aufgabe des Service Level Managements (SLM) ist es, die Einhaltung der vertraglich fixierten Dienstgüteparameter zu überwachen bzw. sicherzustellen. Für eine automatische Bearbeitung ist daher eine formale Spezifikation von SLAs notwendig. Da der Markt eine Vielzahl von unterschiedlichen SLM-Werkzeugen hervorgebracht hat, entstehen in der Praxis Probleme durch proprietäre SLA-Formate und fehlende Spezifikationsmethoden. Daraus resultiert eine Werkzeugabhängigkeit und eine limitierte Wiederverwendbarkeit bereits spezifizierter SLAs. In der vorliegenden Arbeit wird ein Ansatz für ein plattformunabhängiges Service Level Management entwickelt. Ziel ist eine Vereinheitlichung der Modellierung, so dass unterschiedliche Managementansätze integriert und eine Trennung zwischen Problem- und Technologiedomäne erreicht wird. Zudem wird durch die Plattformunabhängigkeit eine hohe zeitliche Stabilität erstellter Modelle erreicht. Weiteres Ziel der Arbeit ist, die Wiederverwendbarkeit modellierter SLAs zu gewährleisten und eine prozessorientierte Modellierungsmethodik bereitzustellen. Eine automatisierte Etablierung modellierter SLAs ist für eine praktische Nutzung von entscheidender Relevanz. Zur Erreichung dieser Ziele werden die Prinzipien der Model Driven Architecture (MDA) auf die Problemdomäne des Service Level Managements angewandt. Zentrale Idee der Arbeit ist die Definition von SLA-Mustern, die konfigurationsunabhängige Abstraktionen von Service Level Agreements darstellen. Diese SLA-Muster entsprechen dem Plattformunabhängigen Modell (PIM) der MDA. Durch eine geeignete Modelltransformation wird aus einem SLA-Muster eine SLA-Instanz generiert, die alle notwendigen Konfigurationsinformationen beinhaltet und bereits im Format der Zielplattform vorliegt. Eine SLA-Instanz entspricht damit dem Plattformspezifischen Modell (PSM) der MDA. Die Etablierung der SLA-Instanzen und die daraus resultierende Konfiguration des Managementsystems entspricht dem Plattformspezifischen Code (PSC) der MDA. Nach diesem Schritt ist das Managementsystem in der Lage, die im SLA vereinbarten Dienstgüteparameter eigenständig zu überwachen. Im Rahmen der Arbeit wurde eine UML-Erweiterung definiert, die eine Modellierung von SLA-Mustern mit Hilfe eines UML-Werkzeugs ermöglicht. Hierbei kann die Modellierung rein graphisch als auch unter Einbeziehung der Object Constraint Language (OCL) erfolgen. Für die praktische Realisierung des Ansatzes wurde eine Managementarchitektur entwickelt, die im Rahmen eines Prototypen realisiert wurde. Der Gesamtansatz wurde anhand einer Fallstudie evaluiert.

Hybrid Power System Modelling - Simulation and Energy Management Unit Development

Weltweit leben mehr als 2 Milliarden Menschen in ländlichen Gebieten. Als Konzept für die elektrische Energieversorgung solcher Gebiete kommen dezentrale elektrische Energieversorgungseinheiten zum Einsatz, die lokal verfügbare erneuerbare Ressourcen nutzen. Stand der Technik bilden Einheiten, die auf PV-Diesel-Batterie System basieren. Die verwendeten Versorgungsskonzepte in Hybridsystemen sind durch den Einsatz von Batterien als Energiespeicher meist wenig zuverlässig und teuer. Diese Energiespeicher sind sehr aufwendig zu überwachen und schwerig zu entsorgen. Den Schwerpunkt dieser Arbeit bildet die Entwicklung eines neuen Hybridsystems mit einem Wasserreservoir als Energiespeicher. Dieses Konzept eignet sich für Bergregionen in Entwicklungsländern wie Nepal, wo z.B. neben der solaren Strahlung kleine Flüsse in großer Anzahl vorhanden sind. Das Hybridsystem verfügt über einen Synchrongenerator, der die Netzgrößen Frequenz und Spannung vorgibt und zusätzlich unterstützen PV und Windkraftanlage die Versorgung. Die Wasserkraftanlage soll den Anteil der erneuerbaren Energienutzung erhöhen. Die Erweiterung des Systems um ein Dieselaggregat soll die Zuverlässigkeit der Versorgung erhöhen. Das Hybridsystem inkl. der Batterien wird modelliert und simuliert. Anschließend werden die Simulations- und Messergebnisse verglichen, um eine Validierung des Modells zu erreichen. Die Regelungsstruktur ist aufgrund der hohen Anzahl an Systemen und Parametern sehr komplex. Sie wird mit dem Simulationstool Matlab/Simulink nachgebildet. Das Verhalten des Gesamtsystems wird unter verschiedene Lasten und unterschiedlichen meteorologischen Gegebenheiten untersucht. Ein weiterer Schwerpunkt dieser Arbeit ist die Entwicklung einer modularen Energiemanagementeinheit, die auf Basis der erneuerbaren Energieversorgung aufgebaut wird. Dabei stellt die Netzfrequenz eine wichtige Eingangsgröße für die Regelung dar. Sie gibt über die Wirkleistungsstatik die Leistungsänderung im Netz wider. Über diese Angabe und die meteorologischen Daten kann eine optimale wirtschaftliche Aufteilung der Energieversorgung berechnet und eine zuverlässige Versorgung gewährleistet werden. Abschließend wurde die entwickelte Energiemanagementeinheit hardwaretechnisch aufgebaut, sowie Sensoren, Anzeige- und Eingabeeinheit in die Hardware integriert. Die Algorithmen werden in einer höheren Programmiersprache umgesetzt. Die Simulationen unter verschiedenen meteorologischen und netztechnischen Gegebenheiten mit dem entwickelten Model eines Hybridsystems für die elektrische Energieversorgung haben gezeigt, dass das verwendete Konzept mit einem Wasserreservoir als Energiespeicher ökologisch und ökonomisch eine geeignete Lösung für Entwicklungsländer sein kann. Die hardwaretechnische Umsetzung des entwickelten Modells einer Energiemanagementeinheit hat seine sichere Funktion bei der praktischen Anwendung in einem Hybridsystem bestätigen können.