When do export subsidies have a redistributional role? Reply

Our differences are three. The first arises from the belief that "... a nonzero value for the optimally chosen policy instrument implies that the instrument is efficient for redistribution" (Alston, Smith, and Vercammen, p. 543, paragraph 3). Consider the two equations: (1) o* = f(P3) and (2) = -f(3) ++r h* (a, P3) representing the solution to the problem of maximizing weighted, Marshallian surplus using, simultaneously, a per-unit border intervention, 9, and a per-unit domestic intervention, wr. In the solution, parameter ot denotes the weight applied to producer surplus; parameter p denotes the weight applied to government revenues; consumer surplus is implicitly weighted one; and the country in question is small in the sense that it is unable to affect world price by any of its domestic adjustments (see the Appendix). Details of the forms of the functions f((P) and h(ot, p) are easily derived, but what matters in the context of Alston, Smith, and Vercammen's Comment is: Redistributivep referencest hatf avorp roducers are consistent with higher values "alpha," and whereas the optimal domestic intervention, 7r*, has both "alpha and beta effects," the optimal border intervention, r*, has only a "beta effect,"-it does not have a redistributional role. Garth Holloway is reader in agricultural economics and statistics, Department of Agricultural and Food Economics, School of Agriculture, Policy, and Development, University of Reading. The author is very grateful to Xavier Irz, Bhavani Shankar, Chittur Srinivasan, Colin Thirtle, and Richard Tiffin for their comments and their wisdom; and to Mario Mazzochi, Marinos Tsigas, and Cal Turvey for their scholarship, including help in tracking down a fairly complete collection of the papers that cite Alston and Hurd. They are not responsible for any errors or omissions. Note, in equation (1), that the border intervention is positive whenever a distortion exists because 8 > 0 implies 3 - 1 + 8 > 1 and, thus, f((P) > 0 (see Appendix). Using Alston, Smith, and Vercammen's definition, the instrument is now "efficient," and therefore has a redistributive role. But now, suppose that the distortion is removed so that 3 - 1 + 8 = 1, 8 = 0, and consequently the border intervention is zero. According to Alston, Smith, and Vercammen, the instrument is now "inefficient" and has no redistributive role. The reader will note that this thought experiment has said nothing about supporting farm incomes, and so has nothing whatsoever to do with efficient redistribution. Of course, the definition is false. It follows that a domestic distortion arising from the "excess-burden argument" 3 = 1 + 8, 8 > 0 does not make an export subsidy "efficient." The export subsidy, having only a "beta effect," does not have a redistributional role. The second disagreement emerges from the comment that Holloway "... uses an idiosyncratic definition of the relevant objective function of the government (Alston, Smith, and Vercammen, p. 543, paragraph 2)." The objective function that generates equations (1) and (2) (see the Appendix) is the same as the objective function used by Gardner (1995) when he first questioned Alston, Carter, and Smith's claim that a "domestic distortion can make a border intervention efficient in transferring surplus from consumers and taxpayers to farmers." The objective function used by Gardner (1995) is the same objective function used in the contributions that precede it and thus defines the literature on the debate about borderversus- domestic intervention (Streeten; Yeh; Paarlberg 1984, 1985; Orden; Gardner 1985). The objective function in the latter literature is the same as the one implied in another literature that originates from Wallace and includes most notably Gardner (1983), but also Alston and Hurd. Amer. J. Agr. Econ. 86(2) (May 2004): 549-552 Copyright 2004 American Agricultural Economics Association This content downloaded on Tue, 15 Jan 2013 07:58:41 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 550 May 2004 Amer. J. Agr. Econ. The objective function in Holloway is this same objective function-it is, of course, Marshallian surplus.1 The third disagreement concerns scholarship. The Comment does not seem to be cognizant of several important papers, especially Bhagwati and Ramaswami, and Bhagwati, both of which precede Corden (1974, 1997); but also Lipsey and Lancaster, and Moschini and Sckokai; one important aspect of Alston and Hurd; and one extremely important result in Holloway. This oversight has some unfortunate repercussions. First, it misdirects to the wrong origins of intellectual property. Second, it misleads about the appropriateness of some welfare calculations. Third, it prevents Alston, Smith, and Vercammen from linking a finding in Holloway (pp. 242-43) with an old theorem (Lipsey and Lancaster) that settles the controversy (Alston, Carter, and Smith 1993, 1995; Gardner 1995; and, presently, Alston, Smith, and Vercammen) about the efficiency of border intervention in the presence of domestic distortions.

Describing seasonal variability in the distribution of daily effective temperatures for 1985-2009 compared to 1904-1984 for De Bilt, Holland

This paper proposes a method for describing the distribution of observed temperatures on any day of the year such that the distribution and summary statistics of interest derived from the distribution vary smoothly through the year. The method removes the noise inherent in calculating summary statistics directly from the data thus easing comparisons of distributions and summary statistics between different periods. The method is demonstrated using daily effective temperatures (DET) derived from observations of temperature and wind speed at De Bilt, Holland. Distributions and summary statistics are obtained from 1985 to 2009 and compared to the period 1904–1984. A two-stage process first obtains parameters of a theoretical probability distribution, in this case the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution, which describes the distribution of DET on any day of the year. Second, linear models describe seasonal variation in the parameters. Model predictions provide parameters of the GEV distribution, and therefore summary statistics, that vary smoothly through the year. There is evidence of an increasing mean temperature, a decrease in the variability in temperatures mainly in the winter and more positive skew, more warm days, in the summer. In the winter, the 2% point, the value below which 2% of observations are expected to fall, has risen by 1.2 °C, in the summer the 98% point has risen by 0.8 °C. Medians have risen by 1.1 and 0.9 °C in winter and summer, respectively. The method can be used to describe distributions of future climate projections and other climate variables. Further extensions to the methodology are suggested.

“There’s something very familiar about all this”: generic play and performance in the Back to the Future trilogy (Robert Zemeckis, 1985, 1989, 1990)

The Back to the Future Trilogy incorporates several different generic elements, including aspects of the fifties teen movie, science fiction, comedy and the western. These different modes playfully intertwine with each other creating a complex world of repetitions, echoes and modulations. This essay seeks to interrogate the construction of generic elements and the play between them through a close analysis of a repeated performance. Genre is signalled through various strategies employed within the construction of mise-en-scène, a significant portion of this, as I would like to argue, is transmitted through performance. The material detail of a performance – incorporating gesture, movement, voice, and even surrounding elements such as costume – as well as the way it its presented within a film is key to the establishment, invocation and coherence of genre. Furthermore, attention to the complexity of performance details, particularly in the manner in which they reverberate across texts, demonstrates the intricacy of genre and its inherent mutability. The Back to the Future trilogy represents a specific interest in the flexibility of genre. Within each film, and especially across all three, aspects of various genres are interlaced through both visual and narrative detail, thus constructing a dense layer of references both within and without the texts. To explore this patterning in more detail I will interrogate the contribution of performance to generic play through close analysis of Thomas F. Wilson’s performance of Biff/Griff/Burford Tannen and his central encounter with Marty McFly (Michael J. Fox) in each film. These moments take place in a fifties diner, a 1980s retro diner and a saloon respectively, each space contributing the similarities and differences in each repetition. Close attention to Wilson’s performance of each related character, which contains both modulations and repetitions used specifically to place each film’s central generic theme, demonstrates how embedded the play between genres and their flexibility is within the trilogy.

Changes in global net radiative imbalance 1985-2012

Combining satellite data, atmospheric reanalyses and climate model simulations, variability in the net downward radiative flux imbalance at the top of Earth's atmosphere (N) is reconstructed and linked to recent climate change. Over the 1985-1999 period mean N (0.34 ± 0.67 Wm–2) is lower than for the 2000-2012 period (0.62 ± 0.43 Wm–2, uncertainties at 90% confidence level) despite the slower rate of surface temperature rise since 2000. While the precise magnitude of N remains uncertain, the reconstruction captures interannual variability which is dominated by the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in 1991 and the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Monthly deseasonalized interannual variability in N generated by an ensemble of 9 climate model simulations using prescribed sea surface temperature and radiative forcings and from the satellite-based reconstruction is significantly correlated (r ∼ 0.6) over the 1985-2012 period.

The Mystery of Privity: Grand Trunk Railway Company of Canada v Robinson (1915)

This article examines a little known decision of the Judicial Committee of the Privy Council: Grand Trunk Railway Company of Canada v Robinson (1915). The examination is historical and it provides a different insight into the understanding of privity of contract, a doctrine central to contract law. The examination reveals a process of trans-Atlantic legal migration in which English law was applied to resolve an Ontario case. The nature of the resolution is surprising because it appears to conflict with the better known decision of the House of Lords, Dunlop Pneumatic Tyre Company, Limited v Selfridge and Company, Limited, which a similarly constituted panel delivered in the same week. This article argues that there was a greater malleability in the resolution of cases concerned with privity than was thought to have existed. It is also argued that the power of Canadian railway capitalism is a significant factor in understanding the legal resolution of the case. Finally, it the article considers the use of English and American precedents relevant to the case. The application of English precedents to the case led to a resolution not entirely befitting Canadian conditions.

Combining satellite observations and reanalysis energy transports to estimate global net surface energy fluxes 1985-2012

Two methods are developed to estimate net surface energy fluxes based upon satellite-based reconstructions of radiative fluxes at the top of atmosphere and the atmospheric energy tendencies and transports from the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Method 1 applies the mass adjusted energy divergence from ERA-Interim while method 2 estimates energy divergence based upon the net energy difference at the top of atmosphere and the surface from ERA-Interim. To optimise the surface flux and its variability over ocean, the divergences over land are constrained to match the monthly area mean surface net energy flux variability derived from a simple relationship between the surface net energy flux and the surface temperature change. The energy divergences over the oceans are then adjusted to remove an unphysical residual global mean atmospheric energy divergence. The estimated net surface energy fluxes are compared with other data sets from reanalysis and atmospheric model simulations. The spatial correlation coefficients of multi-annual means between the estimations made here and other data sets are all around 0.9. There are good agreements in area mean anomaly variability over the global ocean, but discrepancies in the trend over the eastern Pacific are apparent.

Trends in systemic lupus erythematosus mortality rates in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil from 1985 to 2004

Objectives To estimate mortality rates and mortality trends from SLE in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Material and methods The official data bank was used to study all deaths occurred from 1985 to 2004 in which SLE was mentioned as the underlying cause of death. Besides the overall mortality rate, the annual gender- and age-specific mortality rates were estimated for each calendar year by age bracket (0-19 years, 20-39 years, 40-59 years and over 60 years) and for the sub-periods 1985-1995 (first) and 1996-2004 (second), by decades. Chi-square test was used to compare the mortality rates between the two periods, as well the mortality rates according to educational level considering years of study. Pearson correlation coefficient test was used to analyse mortality trends. The crude rates were adjusted for age by the direct method, using the standard Brazilian population in 2000. Results A total of 2,601 deaths (90% female) attributed to SLE were analysed. The mean age at death was significantly higher in the second than in the first sub-period (36.6 +/- 15.6 years vs. 33.9 +/- 14.0 years; p<0.001). The overall adjusted mortality rate was 3.8 deaths/million habitants/year for the entire period and 3.4 deaths/million inhabitants/year for the first and 4.0 deaths/million inhabitants/year for the second sub-period (p<0.001). In each calendar year, the mortality rate was significantly lower for the better educated group. Throughout the period, there was a significant increase in mortality rates only among women over 40. Conclusion SLE patients living in the state of Silo Paulo still die at younger ages than those living in developed countries. Our data do not support the theory that there was an improvement in the SLE mortality rate in the last 20 years in the state of Sao Paulo. Socio-economic factors, such as the difficulty to get medical care and adequate treatment, may be the main factors to explain the worst prognosis for our patients.

Chagas disease-related mortality trends, state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, 1985 to 2006: a study using multiple causes of death

Objectives. To study mortality trends related to Chagas disease taking into account all mentions of this cause listed on any line or part of the death certificate. Methods. Mortality data for 1985-2006 were obtained from the multiple cause-of-death database maintained by the Sao Paulo State Data Analysis System (SEADE). Chagas disease was classified as the underlying cause-of-death or as an associated cause-of-death (non-underlying). The total number of times Chagas disease was mentioned on the death certificates was also considered. Results. During this 22-year period, there were 40 002 deaths related to Chagas disease: 34 917 (87.29%) classified as the underlying cause-of-death and 5 085 (12.71%) as an associated cause-of-death. The results show a 56.07% decline in the death rate due to Chagas disease as the underlying cause and a stabilized rate as associated cause. The number of deaths was 44.5% higher among men. The fact that 83.5% of the deaths occurred after 45 years of age reflects a cohort effect. The main causes associated with Chagas disease as the underlying cause-of-death were direct complications due to cardiac involvement, such as conduction disorders, arrhythmias and heart failure. Ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disorders and neoplasms were the main underlying causes when Chagas was an associated cause-of-death. Conclusions. For the total mentions to Chagas disease, a 51.34% decline in the death rate was observed, whereas the decline in the number of deaths was only 5.91%, being lower among women and showing a shift of deaths to older age brackets. Using the multiple cause-of-death method contributed to the understanding of the natural history of Chagas disease.

Olycksfall i arbetet : En kartläggning över olycksfall vid Falu Koppargruva 1906-1915 samt åtgärder för en säkrare arbetsmiljö

Hur farligt var gruvarbete i början av 1900-talet? I denna uppsats undersöks de olycksfall som inträffade i Falu koppargruva mellan åren 1906-1915. Uppsatsen behandlar totalt 387 st arbetsrelaterade olyckor i och kring gruvan. I uppsatsen framkommer att gruvarbetarna var de som löpte störst risk att råka ut för skador. Sjukskrivningarnas längd varierade kraftigt, men de flesta olyckor medförde en sjukskrivningstid på mindre än 20 dagar. Krosskador, kontusioner, sårskador och ögonskador var de vanligaste följderna av olyckorna. Händer och fötter var de mest utsatta kroppsdelarna, och de flesta olyckorna var följden av fallande stenar eller olyckor i samband med användandet av maskiner och verktyg. Under den undersökta perioden inträffade fyra dödsfall, där tre var direkt arbetsrelaterade medan ett skedde under eftervården av en olycka. De vanligast förekommande skyddsåtgärderna var att installera någon form av skydd kring maskiner eller att mana till försiktighet vid riskabla arbetsmoment.