Previsão do índice bovespa por meio de redes neurais artificiais: uma análise comparada aos métodos tradicionais de séries de tempo

Forecast is the basis for making strategic, tactical and operational business decisions. In financial economics, several techniques have been used to predict the behavior of assets over the past decades.Thus, there are several methods to assist in the task of time series forecasting, however, conventional modeling techniques such as statistical models and those based on theoretical mathematical models have produced unsatisfactory predictions, increasing the number of studies in more advanced methods of prediction. Among these, the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are a relatively new and promising method for predicting business that shows a technique that has caused much interest in the financial environment and has been used successfully in a wide variety of financial modeling systems applications, in many cases proving its superiority over the statistical models ARIMA-GARCH. In this context, this study aimed to examine whether the ANNs are a more appropriate method for predicting the behavior of Indices in Capital Markets than the traditional methods of time series analysis. For this purpose we developed an quantitative study, from financial economic indices, and developed two models of RNA-type feedfoward supervised learning, whose structures consisted of 20 data in the input layer, 90 neurons in one hidden layer and one given as the output layer (Ibovespa). These models used backpropagation, an input activation function based on the tangent sigmoid and a linear output function. Since the aim of analyzing the adherence of the Method of Artificial Neural Networks to carry out predictions of the Ibovespa, we chose to perform this analysis by comparing results between this and Time Series Predictive Model GARCH, developing a GARCH model (1.1).Once applied both methods (ANN and GARCH) we conducted the results' analysis by comparing the results of the forecast with the historical data and by studying the forecast errors by the MSE, RMSE, MAE, Standard Deviation, the Theil's U and forecasting encompassing tests. It was found that the models developed by means of ANNs had lower MSE, RMSE and MAE than the GARCH (1,1) model and Theil U test indicated that the three models have smaller errors than those of a naïve forecast. Although the ANN based on returns have lower precision indicator values than those of ANN based on prices, the forecast encompassing test rejected the hypothesis that this model is better than that, indicating that the ANN models have a similar level of accuracy . It was concluded that for the data series studied the ANN models show a more appropriate Ibovespa forecasting than the traditional models of time series, represented by the GARCH model

Os impactos psicossociais gerados pelo diagnóstico e tratamento da doença celíaca

Extraído da dissertação: "Os impactos psicossociais da Doença Celíaca" Programa de Pós Graduação em Ciências da Saúde, Universidade de Brasília, 2015.

Metodologias de serviços públicos de ATER: estudo em instituições do Rio Grande do Norte

Due to the appreciation of family farming by the Brazilian Federal Government, the Technical Assistance and Rural Extension was induced to restructure and act in a more participative way, culminating in the National Policy of Technical Assistance and Rural Extension (PNATER), changing the profile of technology transfer and knowledge (diffusionism) for an action that uses participatory methodologies focused on exchange of knowledge between farmers and technicians. The process of discussion of the trends of ATER brought the New ATER , with the recognition of agroecology as the main guidance. This research aimed to analyze methods of public ATER developed by institutions of Rio Grande do Norte, under the guidance of New ATER. The research is qualitative. Secondary data were collected through documental research and literature. Primary data were collected through a set of interviews applied to representatives of public institutions ATER, namely EMATER-RN, Diaconia and AACC and representatives of organizations that receive public ATER. The research showed the difficulties of EMATER-RN in implementing of New ATER due to lack of infrastructure and low adherence of the new form of technical assistance and rural extension. It was shown also that the AACC and Diaconia act with ATER through projects with implementation deadlines set, often interrupting ATER while communities are still in need of assistance

A comunicação na prática médica: seu papel como componente terapêutico

A comunicação é um instrumento importante da prática médica e em especial da medicina geral e familiar, pelo seu âmbito menos específico. A abordagem biopsicossocial para ser eficaz necessita de uma forte componente comunicacional nas diversas fases da relação médico doente, nomeadamente, na consulta, nas actividades de prevenção da doença e de educação para a saúde, na relação com os familiares do doente. A comunicação médico-doente influencia a aderência à terapêutica pelo doente e os seus índices de satisfação com a consulta. A comunicação desempenha, também, um papel importante, conforme é adequada ou não, no desencadear ou na prevenção do stress e burnout do(a) médico(a), que são aspectos directamente relacionados com o seu bem-estar ou absentismo por doença. A comunicação é uma componente central das estratégias de coping para as situações difíceis do quotidiano médico como as emoções associadas à doença, sofrimento e morte. Devido ao papel fulcral que a comunicação tem na prática médica, considera-se que a formação em comunicação deve ser mais valorizada, nos diversos níveis, pré ou pós-graduado.

Parâmetros morfológicos de ativação dos eosinófilos do sangue periférico : uma nova ferramenta para triagem de pacientes portadores de esofagite eosinofílica

Tese (doutorado)—Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Medicina, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Patologia Molecular, 2015.

Sincronização do estro e coleta de embriões em suínos nacionais

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Agronomia e Medicina Veterinária, 2016.

Construção, caracterização e aplicação de eletrodos para descarga por arco de cátodo oco

The system built to characterize electrodes and, consequently, deposited fine films are constituted by a hollow cathode that works to discharges and low pressures (approximately 10-3 to 5 mbar), a source DC (0 to 1200 V), a cylindrical camera of closed borossilicato for flanges of stainless steel with an association of vacuum bombs mechanical and spread. In the upper flange it is connected the system of hollow cathode, which possesses an entrance of gas and two entrances for its refrigeration, the same is electrically isolated of the rest of the equipment and it is polarized negatively. In front of the system of hollow cathode there is a movable sample in stainless steel with possibility of moving in the horizontal and vertical. In the vertical, the sample can vary its distance between 0 and 70 mm and, in the horizontal, can leave completely from the front of the hollow cathode. The sample and also the cathode hollow are equipped with cromel-alumel termopares with simultaneous reading of the temperatures during the time of treatment. In this work copper electrodes, bronze, titanium, iron, stainless steel, powder of titanium, powder of titanium and silício, glass and ceramic were used. The electrodes were investigated relating their geometry change and behavior of the plasma of the cavity of hollow cathode and channel of the gas. As the cavity of hollow cathode, the analyzed aspects were the diameter and depth. With the channel of the gas, we verified the diameter. In the two situations, we investigated parameters as flow of the gas, pressure, current and applied tension in the electrode, temperature, loss of mass of the electrode with relationship at the time of use. The flow of gas investigated in the electrodes it was fastened in a work strip from 15 to 6 sccm, the constant pressure of work was among 2.7 to 8 x 10-2 mbar. The applied current was among a strip of work from 0,8 to 0,4 A, and their respective tensions were in a strip from 400 to 220 V. Fixing the value of the current, it was possible to lift the curve of the behavior of the tension with the time of use. That curves esteem in that time of use of the electrode to its efficiency is maximum. The temperatures of the electrodes were in the dependence of that curves showing a maximum temperature when the tension was maximum, yet the measured temperatures in the samples showed to be sensitive the variation of the temperature in the electrodes. An accompaniment of the loss of mass of the electrode relating to its time of use showed that the electrodes that appeared the spherical cavities lost more mass in comparison with the electrodes in that didn't appear. That phenomenon is only seen for pressures of 10-2 mbar, in these conditions a plasma column is formed inside of the channel of the gas and in certain points it is concentrated in form of spheres. Those spherical cavities develop inside of the channel of the gas spreading during the whole extension of the channel of the gas. The used electrodes were cut after they could not be more used, however among those electrodes, films that were deposited in alternate times and the electrodes that were used to deposit films in same times, those films were deposited in the glass substrata, alumina, stainless steel 420, stainless steel 316, silício and steel M2. As the eletros used to deposit films in alternate time as the ones that they were used to deposit in same times, the behavior of the thickness of the film obeyed the curve of the tension with relationship the time of use of the electrode, that is, when the tension was maximum, the thickness of the film was also maximum and when the tension was minimum, the thickness was minimum and in the case where the value of the tension was constant, the thickness of the film tends to be constant. The fine films that were produced they had applications with nano stick, bio-compatibility, cellular growth, inhibition of bacterias, cut tool, metallic leagues, brasagem, pineapple fiber and ornamental. In those films it was investigated the thickness, the adherence and the uniformity characterized by sweeping electronic microscopy. Another technique developed to assist the production and characterization of the films produced in that work was the caloteste. It uses a sphere and abrasive to mark the sample with a cap impression, with that cap form it is possible to calculate the thickness of the film. Through the time of life of the cathode, it was possible to evaluate the rate of waste of its material for the different work conditions. Values of waste rate up to 3,2 x 10-6 g/s were verified. For a distance of the substratum of 11 mm, the deposited film was limited to a circular area of 22 mm diameter mm for high pressures and a circular area of 75 mm for pressure strip. The obtained films presented thickness around 2,1 µm, showing that the discharge of arch of hollow cathode in argon obeys a curve characteristic of the tension with the time of life of the eletrodo. The deposition rate obtained in this system it is of approximately 0,18 µm/min

Caracterização Microestrutural e Tribocorrosiva de Sistemas Metalocerâmicos Odontológicos do Tipo Ni-Cr/Porcelana E Ni-Cr/Ti/Porcelana

The partial fixed prosthodontics restoration is used to rehabilitate form and function of partial or total compromised teeth, having to remain permanently joined to remainder tooth. The most useful material on prosthodontics is the feldspar porcelain, commercialized as aluminosilicate powders. Dental porcelains are presented with limited mechanical properties to rehabilitate extensive spaces. The association with Ni-Cr metallic systems (metal-ceramic system) allows that the metallic substructure compensates the fragile porcelain nature, preserving the thermal insulation and aesthetics desirable, as well as reducing the possibility of cracking during matication efforts. Cohesive flaws by low mechanical strength connect the metallic substructure to the oral environment, characterized by a electrolytic solution (saliva), by aggressive temperature, pH cyclic changes and mechanical requests. This process results on ionic liberation that could promote allergic or inflammatory responses, and/or clinical degradation of ceramometal system. The aim of this study was to evaluate the presence of an intermediate titanium layer on the microscopic fracture behavior of porcelains on ceramometal systems. Plasma deposition of titanium films result in regular passivating oxide layers which act as barriers to protect the metallic substrate against the hazardous effects of corrosive saliva. Tribocorrosion tests were performed to simulate the oral environment and mechanical stress, making it possible the early detection of crack formation and growth on metal-ceramic systems, which estimate the adherence between the compounds of this system. Plain samples consisting of dental feldspar porcelain deposited either onto metallic substrates or titanium films were fired and characterized by scanning electron microscopy. The result showed that the titanium film improved the adherence of the system compared to conventional metal-ceramic interfaces, thus holding crack propagation

Estudo da viabilidade do sistema LZAS para uso como selante de PaCOS

Cells the solid oxide fuel are systems capable to directly convert energy of a chemical reaction into electric energy in clean, quiet way and if its components in the solid state differentiate of excessively the techniques for having all. Its more common geometric configurations are: the tubular one and to glide. Geometry to glide beyond the usual components (anode, cathode and electrolyte) needs interconnect and sealant. E the search for materials adjusted for these components is currently the biggest challenge found for the production of the cells. The sealants need to present chemical stability in high temperatures, to provoke electric isolation, to have coefficient of compatible thermal expansion with the excessively component ones. For presenting these characteristics the glass-ceramics materials are recommended for the application. In this work the study of the partial substitution of the ZrO2 for the Al2O3 in system LZS became it aiming at the formation of system LZAS, this with the addition of natural spodumene with 10, 20 and 30% in mass. The compositions had been casting to a temperature of 1500°C and later quickly cooled with the objective to continue amorphous. Each composition was worn out for attainment of a dust with average diameter of approximately 3μm and characterized by the techniques of DRX, FRX, MEV, dilatometric analysis and particle size analysis. Later the samples had been conformed and treated thermally with temperatures in the interval between 700-1000 °C, with platform of 10 minutes and 1 hour. The analyses for the treated samples had been: dilatometric analysis, DRX, FRX, electrical conductivity and tack. The results point with respect to the viability of the use of system LZAS for use as sealant a time that had presented good results as isolating electric, they had adhered to a material with similar α of the components of a SOFC and had presented steady crystalline phases

Avaliação de concretos reforçados por confinamento com manta de fibra de vidro estrutural e pré-impreganada

Due to the occurrence of diseases in the use of structural reinforcements in composites, with presentation of concrete blanket detachment, has been identified the need to evaluate the performance of concrete reinforced with glass fiber. This study aims to evaluate these concretes by means of testing methodologies, using concrete with low resistance with structural reinforcement for confinement by preimpregnated glass fiber and traditional fiberglass blanket. The first stage of work was the development of methodologies for analysis, opting for four types, such as the acoustic survey, strength to compressive, the pull-off and ultrasound. Next, tests were carried out using the four selected methodologies in 30 of proof-of-specimens by 5x10 cm, 15 were reinforced with the traditional fiberglass blanket with 5specimens exposed to test a marine environment of marine coastline of Natal-RN and 15 were reinforced with a pre-impregnated glass fiber blanket, as well as 5specimens exposed to a test environment of the marine coastline of Natal-RN. After conducting the acoustic survey, it has been verified a lack of delaminating and air bubbles in the samples, confirming the absence of gross shortcomings in the implementation of the ribs both the traditional fiberglass blanket and in the preimpregnated fiber glass blanket. After carrying out methods of pull-off and compressive strengthening test it was observed that the reinforced proof-bodies with pre-impregnated glass blanket showed maximum stresses higher than the traditional fiberglass blanket; consequently a greater grip with the formation of a smaller area of . fracture, unlike traditional glass mat, which showed lower maximum stresses, with a greater area of fracture. It was also found that the traditional fiberglass blanket presented detachment of blanket-concrete interface, unlike the pre-impregnated fiberglass blanket, which showed a better grip on the blanket-concrete interface. In the trial of ultrasound there was no presence of cracks in the blanket-concrete interface, yielding to both blankets good compactness of the concrete. At the end of this work, they were developed and proposed two methods of testing for evaluation of reinforced concrete structures with composites, for standardization, the acoustic survey and pull-off

Efeito da incorporação de diatomita na estabilidade e permeabilidade de compósitos cimentíceos espumados aplicados a poços de petróleo

Lightweight oilwell cement slurries have been recently studied as a mean to improve zonal isolation and sheath-porous formation adherence. Foamed slurries consisting of Portland cement and air-entraining admixtures have become an interesting option for this application. The loss in hydrostatic pressure as a consequence of cement hydration results in the expansion of the air bubbles entrapped in the cement matrix, thus improving the sheath-porous formation contact. Consequently, slurries are able to better retain their water to complete the hydration process. The main objective of the present study was to evaluate the effect of the addition of an air-entraining admixture on the density, stability and permeability of composite slurries containing Portland cement and diatomite as light mineral load. Successful formulations are potential cementing materials for low fracture gradient oilwells. The experimental procedures used for slurry preparation and characterization were based on the American Petroleum Institute and ABNT guidelines Slurries containing a pre-established concentration of the air-entraining admixture and different contents of diatomite were prepared aiming at final densities of 13 to 15 lb/gal. The results revealed that the reduction of 15 to 25% of the density of the slurries did not significantly affect their strength. The addition of both diatomite and the air-entraining admixture increased the viscosity of the slurry providing better air-bubble retention in the volume of the slurry. Stable slurries depicted bottom to top density variation of less than 1.0 lb/gal and length reduction of the stability sample of 5.86 mm. Finally, permeability coefficient values between 0.617 and 0.406 mD were obtained. Therefore, lightweight oilwell cement slurries depicting a satisfactory set of physicochemical and mechanical properties can be formulated using a combination of diatomite and air-entraining admixtures for low fracture gradient oilwells

A indústria hoteleira do Algarve: uma análise de dados em painel da estrutura de capital

Dissertação de Mestrado, Finanças Empresariais, Faculdade de Economia, Universidade do Algarve, 2015

Desenvolvimento de argamassa para restauração utilizando resíduo do polimento do porcelanato

The coatings mortars are essential elements of building structures because they execute an important role in protecting walls and are particularly exposed to aggressive action responsible for its degradation over time. The importance of wall coverings has been the subject of discussion and analysis in the conservation and rehabilitation of old buildings. Are sometimes removed and replaced with inappropriate solutions of constructive point of view or architecture. The most commonly used coatings on walls of old buildings is based on traditional hydraulic lime mortars. The present study aims at the formulation of new lime- based mortars and aerial fine aggregate, in order to contribute to a better field of conservation and restoration mortar coating of old buildings. Residue was used for polishing porcelain as fine aggregate, replacing the aggregate (sand), in percentages 05-30% by mass. We conducted a thorough evaluation of the mortar properties in fresh and hardened state by comparing the performance of the same with a reference mortar. The residue used was characterized as the density, bulk density, and particle size laser, scanning electron microscopy, X-ray diffraction and X-ray fluorescence. Formulations were produced 7, 6 with residue and one commonly used formulation, which served as a reference. In the formulations of lime mortars air (hydrated lime powder CH-I) has been adopted a stroke volume (1:3) with constant binder, was varied and the water / binder and aggregate and waste. For evaluation of mortars fresh, proceeded to consistency analysis, specific gravity, water retention and air content embedded. In the hardened state assays were performed in specific gravity, water retention, modulus of elasticity, tensile strength in bending, compressive strength, water absorption by capillary action, adhesion, tensile strength, resistance to shrinkage and salts by of crystallization trials with resources chloride solution, nitrate and sulfate all sodium in prismatic at 90 days of age, in addition to the micro structural analysis of mortars. Based on the results we can see that the mortar formulated with 10% content of waste and the reference free retraction feature more stable closer to neutrality. The composition of 10% was obtained better performance against the action of the salt crystallization. The mortar with 15% residue obtained better density, lower air content embedded and high capacity for water retention developing good workability. The replacement of 20% of waste generates a satisfactory utilization of resistance to compression, flexion and traction grip the base. And, finally, it can be seen that the mortar with 10, 15 and 20% residual show, in principle, good suitability as coatings, thus enabling a final result consistent with durability, workability and aesthetics developing therefore a material with better performance to repair or replace existing mortars in old buildings

Implementação de um modelo de erosão para a simulação de carreiras dos Oficiais da Marinha Portuguesa

Em outubro de 2012, a Direção de Análise e Gestão da Informação (DAGI), em colaboração com a Superintendência do Pessoal (SP) e Direção do Pessoal (DP), iniciou o desenvolvimento de um protótipo de simulador, que designou por “Protótipo Fluxo de Carreiras”. Este simulador permite parametrizar diversos fatores que condicionam o desenvolvimento de carreira dos militares e que estão associados a mecanismos reguladores de carreira que se encontram vertidos no Estatuto dos Militares das Forças Armadas (EMFAR). Para cada ano do período de simulação, a situação de cada militar de uma determinada classe é atualizada e são verificadas as condições para a ocorrência de promoções e passagens à reserva. O evento “passagem à reserva” de um militar pode ter origem em regras determinísticas (exemplo: militar atinge a idade limite de passagem à reserva no seu posto) ou em condições estocásticas ou aleatórias (exemplos: óbito, exclusão da promoção, requerer voluntariamente a passagem à reserva, etc.). Estas últimas situações resultam do fenómeno de erosão dos quadros que pode ser observado a partir do histórico de saídas desta natureza. Até 2015, o simulador de carreiras não comtemplava um modelo de erosão, pelo que os resultados disponibilizados (indicadores de fluxo de carreira) dependiam exclusivamente de mecanismos determinísticos. Desta forma estes resultados apresentam uma natureza “pessimista” e com fraca aderência à realidade. O presente trabalho tem como objetivo construir um modelo descritivo da erosãodos militares oficiais da Marinha, tendo por base dados de saídas (excetuando saídas relacionadas com regras determinísticas previstas no EMFAR) no período de 2008 a2015. Para cada classe da categoria de oficiais é estimada uma função de probabilidadecondicional ao tempo de serviço efetivo ou à idade do militar que representa apropensão para um militar sair do quadro antes de ser verificada uma condição determinística. Estas funções foram integradas no simulador de carreiras para que os resultados possam reproduzir a componente de erosão. Usando o método de simulação de Monte Carlo é possível obter a distribuição dos indicadores de fluxo de carreira. Porfim, objetiva-se realizar uma comparação entre uma simulação com fatores estocásticos (com erosão) e uma simulação considerando apenas fatores determinísticos (semerosão). Este trabalho visa refletir o panorama atual da erosão de pessoal na Marinha, permitindo assim melhorar a qualidade das previsões de efetivos ao longo do tempo bem como aumentar a capacidade de intervenção e resposta na identificação e correção antecipada de possíveis estruturações.

Desvendando a resposta dos eosinófilos, dos neutrófilos e dos monócitos nas parasitoses intestinais, na asma e na associação de ambas em crianças

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Medicina, Pós-graduação em Medicina Tropical, 2015.