Vulnerability of stream biota to climate change in mediterranean climate regions: a synthesis of ecological responses and conservation challenges

Freshwater species worldwide are experiencing dramatic declines partly attributable to ongoing climate change. It is expected that the future effects of climate change could be particularly severe in mediterranean climate (med-) regions, which host many endemic species already under great stress from the high level of human development. In this article, we review the climate and climate-induced changes in streams of med-regions and the responses of stream biota, focusing on both observed and anticipated ecological responses. We also discuss current knowledge gaps and conservation challenges. Expected climate alterations have already been observed in the last decades, and include: increased annual average air temperatures; decreased annual average precipitation; hydrologic alterations; and an increase in frequency, intensity and duration of extreme events, such as floods, droughts and fires. Recent observations, which are concordant with forecasts built, show stream biota of med-regions when facing climate changes tend to be displaced towards higher elevations and upper latitudes, communities tend to change their composition and homogenize, while some life-history traits seem to provide biota with resilience and resistance to adapt to the new conditions (as being short-lived, small, and resistant to low streamflow and desiccation). Nevertheless, such responses may be insufficient to cope with current and future environmental changes. Accurate forecasts of biotic changes and possible adaptations are difficult to obtain in med-regions mainly because of the difficulty of distinguishing disturbances due to natural variability from the effects of climate change, particularly regarding hydrology. Long-term studies are needed to disentangle such variability and improve knowledge regarding the ecological responses and the detection of early warning signals to climate change. Investments should focus on taxa beyond fish and macroinvertebrates, and in covering the less studied regions of Chile and South Africa. Scientists, policy makers and water managers must be involved in the climate change dialogue because the freshwater conservation concerns are huge.

Ecological change predicts population dynamics and genetic diversity over 120 000 years.

While ecological effects on short-term population dynamics are well understood, their effects over millennia are difficult to demonstrate and convincing evidence is scant. Using coalescent methods, we analysed past population dynamics of three lizard species (Psammodromus hispanicus, P. edwardsianus, P. occidentalis) and linked the results with climate change data covering the same temporal horizon (120 000 years). An increase in population size over time was observed in two species, and in P. occidentalis, no change was observed. Temporal changes in temperature seasonality and the maximum temperature of the warmest month were congruent with changes in population dynamics observed for the three species and both variables affected population density, either directly or indirectly (via a life-history trait). These results constitute the first solid link between ecological change and long-term population dynamics. The results moreover suggest that ecological change leaves genetic signatures that can be retrospectively traced, providing evidence that ecological change is a crucial driver of genetic diversity and speciation.

Ecological and physiological variance in T-cell mediated immune response in Cory's shearwaters

T-cell mediated immune response (CMI) hasbeen widely studied in relation to individual andfitness components in birds. However, few studieshave simultaneously examined individual and socialfactors and habitat-mediated variance in theimmunity of chicks and adults from the samepopulation and in the same breeding season. Weinvestigated ecological and physiological variancein CMI of male and female nestlings and adults in abreeding population of Cory's Shearwaters(Calonectrisdiomedea) in theMediterranean Sea. Explanatory variables includedindividual traits (body condition, carbon andnitrogen stable isotope ratios, plasma totalproteins, triglycerides, uric acid, osmolarity,β-hydroxy-butyrate, erythrocyte meancorpuscular diameter, hematocrit, andhemoglobin) and burrow traits(temperature, isolation, and physicalstructure). During incubation, immune responseof adult males was significantly greater than thatof females. Nestlings exhibited a lower immuneresponse than adults. Ecological and physiologicalfactors affecting immune response differed betweenadults and nestlings. General linear models showedthat immune response in adult males was positivelyassociated with burrow isolation, suggesting thatmales breeding at higher densities suffer immunesystem suppression. In contrast, immune response inchicks was positively associated with bodycondition and plasma triglyceride levels.Therefore, adult immune response appears to beassociated with social stress, whereas a trade-offbetween immune function and fasting capability mayexist for nestlings. Our results, and those fromprevious studies, provide support for anasymmetrical influence of ecological andphysiological factors on the health of differentage and sex groups within a population, and for theimportance of simultaneously considering individualand population characteristics in intraspecificstudies of immune response.

Ecological and physiological variance in T-cell mediated immune response in Cory's shearwaters

T-cell mediated immune response (CMI) hasbeen widely studied in relation to individual andfitness components in birds. However, few studieshave simultaneously examined individual and socialfactors and habitat-mediated variance in theimmunity of chicks and adults from the samepopulation and in the same breeding season. Weinvestigated ecological and physiological variancein CMI of male and female nestlings and adults in abreeding population of Cory's Shearwaters(Calonectrisdiomedea) in theMediterranean Sea. Explanatory variables includedindividual traits (body condition, carbon andnitrogen stable isotope ratios, plasma totalproteins, triglycerides, uric acid, osmolarity,β-hydroxy-butyrate, erythrocyte meancorpuscular diameter, hematocrit, andhemoglobin) and burrow traits(temperature, isolation, and physicalstructure). During incubation, immune responseof adult males was significantly greater than thatof females. Nestlings exhibited a lower immuneresponse than adults. Ecological and physiologicalfactors affecting immune response differed betweenadults and nestlings. General linear models showedthat immune response in adult males was positivelyassociated with burrow isolation, suggesting thatmales breeding at higher densities suffer immunesystem suppression. In contrast, immune response inchicks was positively associated with bodycondition and plasma triglyceride levels.Therefore, adult immune response appears to beassociated with social stress, whereas a trade-offbetween immune function and fasting capability mayexist for nestlings. Our results, and those fromprevious studies, provide support for anasymmetrical influence of ecological andphysiological factors on the health of differentage and sex groups within a population, and for theimportance of simultaneously considering individualand population characteristics in intraspecificstudies of immune response.

Social differences in avoidable mortality between small areas of 15 European cities: an ecological study

Health and inequalities in health among inhabitants of European cities are of major importance for European public health and there is great interest in how different health care systems in Europe perform in the reduction of health inequalities. However, evidence on the spatial distribution of cause-specific mortality across neighbourhoods of European cities is scarce. This study presents maps of avoidable mortality in European cities and analyses differences in avoidable mortality between neighbourhoods with different levels of deprivation. Methods: We determined the level of mortality from 14 avoidable causes of death for each neighbourhood of 15 large cities in different European regions. To address the problems associated with Standardised Mortality Ratios for small areas we smooth them using the Bayesian model proposed by Besag, York and Mollié. Ecological regression analysis was used to assess the association between social deprivation and mortality. Results: Mortality from avoidable causes of death is higher in deprived neighbourhoods and mortality rate ratios between areas with different levels of deprivation differ between gender and cities. In most cases rate ratios are lower among women. While Eastern and Southern European cities show higher levels of avoidable mortality, the association of mortality with social deprivation tends to be higher in Northern and lower in Southern Europe. Conclusions: There are marked differences in the level of avoidable mortality between neighbourhoods of European cities and the level of avoidable mortality is associated with social deprivation. There is no systematic difference in the magnitude of this association between European cities or regions. Spatial patterns of avoidable mortality across small city areas can point to possible local problems and specific strategies to reduce health inequality which is important for the development of urban areas and the well-being of their inhabitants

The Andean Biotic Index (ABI): revised tolerance to pollution values for macroinvertebrate families and index performance evaluation.

Score-based biotic indices are widely used to evaluate the water quality of streams and rivers. Few adaptations of these indices have been done for South America because there is a lack of knowledge on mac-roinvertebrate taxonomy, distribution and tolerance to pollution in the region. Several areas in the Andes are densely populated and there is need for methods to assess the impact of increasing human pressures on aquatic ecosystems. Considering the unique ecological and geographical features of the Andes, macroinvertebrate indices used in other regions must be adapted with caution. Here we present a review of the literature on mac-roinvertebrate distribution and tolerance to pollution in Andean areas above 2 000masl. Using these data, we propose an Andean Biotic Index (ABI), which is based on the BMWP index. In general, ABI includes fewer macroinvertebrate families than in other regions of the world where the BMWP index has been applied because altitude restricts the distribution of several families. Our review shows that in the high Andes, the tolerance of several macroinvertebrate families to pollution differs from those reported in other areas. We tested the ABI index in two basins in Ecuador and Peru, and compared it to other BMWP adaptations using the reference condi-tion approach. The ABI index is extremely useful for detecting the general impairment of rivers but class quality boundaries should be defined independently for each basin because reference conditions may be different. The ABI is widely used in Ecuador and Peru, with high correlations with land-use pressures in several studies. The ABI index is an integral part of the new multimetric index designed for high Andean streams (IMEERA). Rev. Biol. Trop. 62 (Suppl. 2): 249-273. Epub 2014 April 01.

Performance Indicators in Sourcing : Case: Mainospyörä Ltd

The business environment has rapidly become more global and more competitive. It sets new requirements for the company management. It is not enough to look at the financial information of the company, but one need to analyse also the internal processes as well. Sourcing exists in every company. It is no longer just a supporting function in a company chain of operations. By sourcing company can affect the profitability of the company in both direct and indirect ways The thesis overviewed the role of strategic accounting, sourcing and performance measurements in particularly, in company strategic steering. The study is qualitative, where the meaning was to describe true life. In the same time it is an explanatory case study. The aim of the study was to build up a set of sourcing performance indicators for the case company.

Indicadores sociales y psicosociales de calidad de vida de las personas mayores en un municipio = Social and psychosocial quality of life indicators of older persons in a municipality

A research about the quality of life of the older persons of a municipality starting from the analysis of the perceptions, evaluations and expectations related to concrete spheres of their lives (familiar characteristics, housing, health, nearby environment, activities, needs and dependencies and persons helping them to satisfy needs) is presented. Answers to 1988 questionnaires obtained from two representative samples of older per - sons living in private homes in the city have been analysed: persons over 65 years old and a specific one composed by a sub-sample of the general one, with persons over 75 years living alone. Data shaping contextual indicators related to housing have been analysed. The auto - nomy to drive and the evaluation of on’s health seem to be positive indicators to take in account while sutying quality of life at these ages. Sentinel indicators of the physical and relational conditions in the family and indicators of dependency are analysed as well. The evaluations of the older persons about their own life conditions are also analysed through psychosocial indicators connected to housing, nearby environmenent, their activities andincomes. The results obtained are applicable in order to improve the decision making process in social intervention programmes developed in the field of ageing aiming to take into account their perspectives

Ecological and Epidemiological Analyses of Multiple Sclerosis Relapse Rate

The underlying cause of many human autoimmune diseases is unknown, but several environmental factors are implicated in triggering the self-destructive immune reactions. Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is a chronic autoimmune disease of the central nervous system, potentially leading to persistent neurological deterioration. The cause of MS is not known, and apart from immunomodulatory treatments there is no cure. In the early phase of the disease, relapsing-remitting MS (RR-MS) is characterized by unpredictable exacerbations of the neurological symptoms called relapses, which can occur at different intervals ranging from 4 weeks to several years. Microbial infections are known to be able to trigger MS relapses, and the patients are instructed to avoid all factors that might increase the risk of infections and to properly use antibiotics as well as to take care of dental hygiene. Among those environmental factors which are known to increase susceptibility to infections, high ambient air inhalable particulate matter levels affect all people within a geographical region. During the period of interest in this thesis, the occurrence of MS relapses could be effectively reduced by injections of interferon, which has immunomodulatory and antiviral properties. In this thesis, ecological and epidemiological analyses were used to study the possible connection between MS relapse occurrence, population level viral infections and air quality factors, as well as the effects of interferon medication. Hospital archive data were collected retrospectively from 1986-2001, a period in time ranging from when interferon medication first became available until just before other disease-modifying MS therapies arrived on the market. The grouped data were studied with logistic regression and intervention analysis, and individual patient data with survival analysis. Interferons proved to be effective in the treatment of MS in this observational study, as the amount of MS exacerbations was lower during interferon use as compared to the time before interferon treatment. A statistically significant temporal relationship between MS relapses and inhalable particular matter (PM₁₀) concentrations was found in this study, which implies that MS patients are affected by the exposure to PM₁₀. Interferon probably protected against the effect of PM₁₀, because a significant increase in the risk of exacerbations was only observed in MS patients without interferon medication following environmental exposure to population level specific viral infections and PM₁₀. Apart from being antiviral, interferon could thus also attenuate the enhancement of immune reactions caused by ambient air PM₁₀. The retrospective approach utilizing carefully constructed hospital records proved to be an economical and reliable source of MS disease information for statistical analyses.

Key performance indicators for supplier and assortement evaluation

Tutkimuksen tavoite oli selvittää suorituskyvyn mittaamista, mittareita ja niiden suunnittelua tukku- ja jakeluliiketoiminnassa. Kriittisten menestystekijöiden mittarit auttavat yritystä kohti yhteistä päämäärää. Kriittisten menestystekijöiden mittarit ovat usein yhdistetty strategiseen suunnitteluun ja implementointiin ja niillä on yhtäläisyyksiä monien strategisten työkalujen kun Balanced scorecardin kanssa. Tutkimus ongelma voidaan esittää kysymyksen muodossa. •Mitkä ovat Oriola KD:n pitkänaikavälin tavoitteita tukevat kriittisten menestystekijöiden mittarit (KPIs) toimittajan ja tuotevalikoiman mittaamisessa? Tutkimus on jaettu kirjalliseen ja empiiriseen osaan. Kirjallisuus katsaus käsittelee aikaisempaa tutkimusta strategian, toimitusketjun hallinnan, toimittajan arvioinnin ja erilaisten suorituskyvyn mittaamisjärjestelmien osalta. Empiirinen osuus etenee nykytila-analyysista ehdotettuihin kriittisten menestystekijöiden mittareihin, jotka ovat kehitetty kirjallisuudesta löydetyn mallin avulla. Tutkimuksen lopputuloksena ovat case yrityksen tarpeisiin kehitetyt kriittisten menestystekijöiden mittarit toimittajan ja tuotevalikoiman arvioinnissa.

Predicting Market Crashes: An Examination of the Performance of Macroeconomic Indicators and Technical Analysis

The purpose of this study is to examine macroeconomic indicators‟ and technical analysis‟ ability to signal market crashes. Indicators examined were Yield Spread, The Purchasing Managers Index and the Consumer Confidence Index. Technical Analysis indicators were moving average, Moving Average Convergence-Divergence and Relative Strength Index. We studied if commonly used macroeconomic indicators can be used as a warning system for a stock market crashes as well. The hypothesis is that the signals of recession can be used as signals of stock market crash and that way a basis for a hedging strategy. The data is collected from the U.S. markets from the years 1983-2010. Empirical studies show that macroeconomic indicators have been able to explain the future GDP development in the U.S. in research period and they were statistically significant. A hedging strategy that combined the signals of yield spread and Consumer Confidence Index gave most useful results as a basis of a hedging strategy in selected time period. It was able to outperform buy-and-hold strategy as well as all of the technical indicator based hedging strategies.

What can and should be legalized in ecological restoration?

After listing the five key elements of ecological restoration, ecology, economics, social values, cultural values, and politics, I celebrate the fact that in Brazil there is legislation on how to perform ecological restoration of degraded tropical forests, as well as an ongoing dialogue among legislators and scientists about this legislation, and also a lively debate among scientists as the best way forward, referring to articles by Brancalion et al. (2010) and Durigan et al. (2010) in this issue of Revista Árvore. Legislators elsewhere, especially megadiversity countries, should take note. I do not take sides in the debate; I think both groups of authors make very good points. Instead I call on the scientists and legislators concerned with restoration to ponder five strategic tools: A. Start with clear concepts. B. Decide where you want to go and why. C. Negotiate who should benefit & how, and who should pay, how, & why. D. Work out how an honest cost-benefit analysis of restoration would look, regardless of the biome in which you are working. Finally, figure out how to make the restoration immediately attractive for private landowners. Otherwise, they will not cooperate as fully as they could or should, and restoration efforts will not achieve its full potential.

Diameter structure of stratum and ecological groups of a Semideciduous Forest area in Dionísio-MG

The objective of this study was to obtain homogeneous groups of species and information on their density, dominance and volume, in terms of ecological group and diameter structure of an area of Submontane Semideciduous forest (Mata do Mumbaça) in Dionísio, MG. This work was conducted with data of the diameter distribution per species from floristic and phytosociological (Mata do Mumbaça) survey of 120 plots with 10 x 10 m each one. The 120 plots were contiguous and corresponding to a total sample area of 12,000 m² distributed over the topographic units (Low Ramp, Lower Slope, Upper Slope and Hill Top). The topographic units Low Ramp, Lower Slope and Upper Slope were in the middle stage of succession as they presented incipient stratification into two strata (canopy and understory) i.e. canopy ranging from 5 to 12 m high. However, the stratum Hill Top was classified as intermediate/advanced succession because it had a total height equal to or greater than 12 m. The distribution of individual trees of the four strata on diameter classes showed a typical J-inverted pattern that is, high concentration of individuals in smaller diameter classes and a sharp reduction towards the larger classes. In relation to absolute dominance and total volume of species, the ecological group that stood out in the four strata (Low Ramp, Lower Slope, Upper Slope and Hill Top) was the initial secondary, which were in the intermediate stage of secondary, rapidly developing into the mature phase.