952 resultados para Controlled branching processes
Resumo:
An estuary is formed at the mouth of a river where the tides meet a freshwater flow and it may be classified as a function of the salinity distribution and density stratification. An overview of the broad characteristics of the estuaries of South-East Queensland(Australia) is presented herein, where the small peri-urban estuaries may provide an useful indicator of potential changes which might occur in larger systems with growing urbanisation. Small peri-urban estuaries exhibits many key hydrological features and associated with ecosystem types of larger estuaries, albeit at smaller scales, often with a greater extent of urban development as a proportion of catchment area. We explore the potential for some smaller peri-urban estuaries to be used as natural laboratories to gain some much needed information on the estuarine processes, although any dynamics similarity is presently limited by critical absence of in-depth physical investigation in larger estuarine systems. The absence of the detailed turbulence and sedimentary data hampers the understanding and modelling of the estuarine zones. The interactions between the various stake holders are likely to define the vision for the future of South-East Queensland's peri-urban estuaries. This will require a solid understanding of the bio-physical function and capacity of the peri-urban estuaries. Based upon the knowledge gap, it is recommended that an adaptive trial and error approach be adopted for the future of investigation and management strategies.
Resumo:
Groundwater flow models are usually characterized as being either transient flow models or steady state flow models. Given that steady state groundwater flow conditions arise as a long time asymptotic limit of a particular transient response, it is natural for us to seek a finite estimate of the amount of time required for a particular transient flow problem to effectively reach steady state. Here, we introduce the concept of mean action time (MAT) to address a fundamental question: How long does it take for a groundwater recharge process or discharge processes to effectively reach steady state? This concept relies on identifying a cumulative distribution function, $F(t;x)$, which varies from $F(0;x)=0$ to $F(t;x) \to \infty$ as $t\to \infty$, thereby providing us with a measurement of the progress of the system towards steady state. The MAT corresponds to the mean of the associated probability density function $f(t;x) = \dfrac{dF}{dt}$, and we demonstrate that this framework provides useful analytical insight by explicitly showing how the MAT depends on the parameters in the model and the geometry of the problem. Additional theoretical results relating to the variance of $f(t;x)$, known as the variance of action time (VAT), are also presented. To test our theoretical predictions we include measurements from a laboratory–scale experiment describing flow through a homogeneous porous medium. The laboratory data confirms that the theoretical MAT predictions are in good agreement with measurements from the physical model.
Resumo:
Jakarta, Indonesia’s chronic housing shortage poses multiple challenges for contemporary policy-makers. While it may be in the city’s interest to increase the availability of housing, there is limited land to do so. Market pressures, in tandem with government’s desire for housing availability, demand consideration of even marginal lands, such as those within floodplains, for development. Increasingly, planning for a flood resilient Jakarta is complicated by a number of factors, including: the city is highly urbanized and land use data is limited; flood management is technically complex, creating potential barriers to engagement for both decision-makers and the public; inherent uncertainty exists throughout modelling efforts, central to management; and risk and liability for infrastructure investments is unclear. These obstacles require localized watershed-level participatory planning to address risks of flooding where possible and reduce the likelihood that informal settlements occur in areas of extreme risk. This paper presents a preliminary scoping study for determination of an effective participatory planning method to encourage more resilient development. First, the scoping study provides background relevant to the challenges faced in planning for contemporary Jakarta. Second, the study examines the current use of decision-support tools, such as Geographic Information Systems (GIS), in planning for Jakarta. Existing capacity in the use of GIS allows for consideration of the use of an emerging method of community consultation - Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) support systems infused with geospatial information - to aid in engagement with the public and improve decision-making outcomes. While these methods have been used in Australia to promote stakeholder engagement in urban intensification, the planned research will be an early introduction of the method to Indonesia. As a consequence of this intervention, it is expected that planning activities will result in a more resilient city, capable of engaging with disaster risk management in a more effective manner.
Resumo:
Currently there is a lack of choice when selecting synthetic materials with the cell-instructive properties demanded by modern biomaterials. The purpose of this study was to investigate the attachment of cells onto hydrogels prepared from poly(2-oxazoline)s selectively-functionalized with cell adhesion motifs. A water-soluble macromer based on the microwave-assisted cationic ring-opening polymerization of 2-methyl-2-oxazoline and 2-(dec-9-enyl)-2-oxazoline was functionalized with the peptide CRGDSG or controls using thiol-ene photochemistry followed by facile crosslinking in the presence of a dithiol crosslinker. The growth of human fibroblasts on the hydrogel surfaces was dictated by the structure and amount of incorporated peptide. Controls without any peptide showed resistance to cellular attachment. The benignity of the crosslinking conditions was demonstrated by the incorporation of fibroblasts within the hydrogels to produce three-dimensional cell-polymer constructs.
Resumo:
Background Falls are one of the most frequently occurring adverse events that impact upon the recovery of older hospital inpatients. Falls can threaten both immediate and longer-term health and independence. There is need to identify cost-effective means for preventing falls in hospitals. Hospital-based falls prevention interventions tested in randomized trials have not yet been subjected to economic evaluation. Methods Incremental cost-effectiveness analysis was undertaken from the health service provider perspective, over the period of hospitalization (time horizon) using the Australian Dollar (A$) at 2008 values. Analyses were based on data from a randomized trial among n = 1,206 acute and rehabilitation inpatients. Decision tree modeling with three-way sensitivity analyses were conducted using burden of disease estimates developed from trial data and previous research. The intervention was a multimedia patient education program provided with trained health professional follow-up shown to reduce falls among cognitively intact hospital patients. Results The short-term cost to a health service of one cognitively intact patient being a faller could be as high as A$14,591 (2008). The education program cost A$526 (2008) to prevent one cognitively intact patient becoming a faller and A$294 (2008) to prevent one fall based on primary trial data. These estimates were unstable due to high variability in the hospital costs accrued by individual patients involved in the trial. There was a 52% probability the complete program was both more effective and less costly (from the health service perspective) than providing usual care alone. Decision tree modeling sensitivity analyses identified that when provided in real life contexts, the program would be both more effective in preventing falls among cognitively intact inpatients and cost saving where the proportion of these patients who would otherwise fall under usual care conditions is at least 4.0%. Conclusions This economic evaluation was designed to assist health care providers decide in what circumstances this intervention should be provided. If the proportion of cognitively intact patients falling on a ward under usual care conditions is 4% or greater, then provision of the complete program in addition to usual care will likely both prevent falls and reduce costs for a health service.
Resumo:
Poor health and injury represent major obstacles to the future economic security of Australia. The national economic cost of work-related injury is estimated at $57.5 billion p/a. Since exposure to high physical demands is a major risk factor for musculoskeletal injury, monitoring and managing such physical activity levels in workers is a potentially important injury prevention strategy. Current injury monitoring practices are inadequate for the provision of clinically valuable information about the tissue specific responses to physical exertion. Injury of various soft tissue structures can manifest over time through accumulation of micro-trauma. Such micro-trauma has a propensity to increase the risk of acute injuries to soft-tissue structures such as muscle or tendon. As such, the capacity to monitor biomarkers that result from the disruption of these tissues offers a means of assisting the pre-emptive management of subclinical injury prior to acute failure or for evaluation of recovery processes. Here we have adopted an in-vivo exercise induced muscle damage model allowing the application of laboratory controlled conditions to assist in uncovering biochemical indicators associated with soft-tissue trauma and recovery. Importantly, urine was utilised as the diagnostic medium since it is non-invasive to collect, more acceptable to workers and less costly to employers. Moreover, it is our hypothesis that exercise induced tissue degradation products enter the circulation and are subsequently filtered by the kidney and pass through to the urine. To test this hypothesis a range of metabolomic and proteomic discovery-phase techniques were used, along with targeted approaches. Several small molecules relating to tissue damage were identified along with a series of skeletal muscle-specific protein fragments resulting from exercise induced soft-tissue damage. Each of the potential biomolecular markers appeared to be temporally present within urine. Moreover, the regulation of abundance seemed to be associated with functional recovery following the injury. This discovery may have important clinical applications for monitoring of a variety of inflammatory myopathies as well as novel applications in monitoring of the musculoskeletal health status of workers, professional athletes and/or military personnel to reduce the onset of potentially debilitating musculoskeletal injuries within these professions.
Resumo:
The genesis of ferruginous nodules and pisoliths in soils and weathering profiles of coastal southern and eastern Australia has long been debated. It is not clear whether iron (Fe) nodules are redox accumulations, residues of Miocene laterite duricrust, or the products of contemporary weathering of Fe-rich sedimentary rocks. This study combines a catchment-wide survey of Fe nodule distribution in Poona Creek catchment (Fraser Coast, Queensland) with detailed investigations of a representative ferric soil profile to show that Fe nodules are derived from Fe-rich sandstones. Where these crop out, they are broken down, transported downslope by colluvial processes, and redeposited. Chemical and physical weathering transforms these eroded rock fragments into non-magnetic Fe nodules. Major features of this transformation include lower hematite/goethite and kaolinite/gibbsite ratios, increased porosity, etching of quartz grains, and development of rounded morphology and a smooth outer cortex. Iron nodules are commonly concentrated in ferric horizons. We show that these horizons form as the result of differential biological mixing of the soil. Bioturbation gradually buries nodules and rock fragments deposited at the surface of the soil, resulting in a largely nodule-free 'biomantle' over a ferric 'stone line'. Maghemite-rich magnetic nodules are a prominent feature of the upper half of the profile. These are most likely formed by the thermal alteration of non-magnetic nodules located at the top of the profile during severe bushfires. They are subsequently redistributed through the soil profile by bioturbation. Iron nodules occurring in the study area are products of contemporary weathering of Fe-rich rock units. They are not laterite duricrust residues nor are they redox accumulations, although redox-controlled dissolution/re-precipitation is an important component of post-depositional modification of these Fe nodules.
Resumo:
Objective. To identify whether a standardised Echinacea formulation is effective in the prevention of respiratory and other symptoms associated with long-haul flights. Methods. 175 adults participated in a randomised, double-blind placebo-controlled trial travelling back from Australia to America, Europe, or Africa for a period of 1–5 weeks on commercial flights via economy class. Participants took Echinacea (root extract, standardised to 4.4 mg alkylamides) or placebo tablets. Participants were surveyed before, immediately after travel, and at 4 weeks after travel regarding upper respiratory symptoms and travel-related quality of life. Results. Respiratory symptoms for both groups increased significantly during travel (
Resumo:
In the mammary gland, Wnt signals are strongly implicated in initial development of the mammary rudiments and in the ductal branching and alveolar morphogenesis that occurs during pregnancy. Previously, we identified two Wnt signaling pathway-implicated genes, PPP3CA and MARK4, as having a role in more aggressive and potentially metastatic breast tumors. In this study, we examined two SNPs within PPP3CA and MARK4 in an Australian case-control study population for a potential role in human breast cancers. 182 cases and 180 controls were successfully genotyped for the PPP3CA SNP (rs2850328) and 182 cases and 177 controls were successfully genotyped for the MARK4 SNP (rs2395) using High Resolution Melt (HRM) analysis. Genotypes of randomly selected samples for both SNPs were validated by dye terminator sequencing. Chi-square tests were performed to determine any significant differences in the genotype and allele frequencies between the cases and controls. Chi-square analysis showed no statistically significant difference (p > .05) for genotype frequencies between cases and controls for rs2850328 (χ2 = 1.2, p = .5476) or rs2395 (χ2 = .3, p = .8608). Similarly, no statistical difference was observed for allele frequencies for rs2850328 (χ2 = .68, p = .4108) or rs2395 (χ2 = .02, p = .893). Even though an association of the polymorphisms rs2850328 and rs2395 and breast cancer was not detected in our case-control study population, other variants within the PPP3CA and MARK4 genes may still be associated with breast cancer, as both genes are implicated with processes involved in the disease as well as their mutual partaking in the Wnt signaling pathway.
Resumo:
PURPOSE We wanted to assess the effectiveness of a home-based physical activity program, the Depression in Late Life Intervention Trial of Exercise (DeLLITE), in improving function, quality of life, and mood in older people with depressive symptoms. METHODS We undertook a randomized controlled trial involving 193 people aged 75 years and older with depressive symptoms at enrollment who were recruited from primary health care practices in Auckland, New Zealand. Participants received either an individualized physical activity program or social visits to control for the contact time of the activity intervention delivered over 6 months. Primary outcome measures were function, a short physical performance battery comprising balance and mobility, and the Nottingham Extended Activities of Daily Living scale. Secondary outcome measures were quality of life, the Medical Outcomes Study 36-item short form, mood, Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS-15), physical activity, Auckland Heart Study Physical Activity Questionnaire, and self-report of falls. Repeated measures analyses tested the differential impact on outcomes over 12 months’ follow-up. RESULTS The mean age of the participants was 81 years, and 59% were women. All participants scored in the at–risk category on the depression screen, 53% had a Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders or International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision diagnosis of major depression or scored more than 4 on the GDS-15 at baseline, indicating moderate or severe depression. Almost all participants, 187 (97%), completed the trial. Overall there were no differences in the impact of the 2 interventions on outcomes. Mood and mental health related quality of life improved for both groups. CONCLUSION he DeLLITE activity program improved mood and quality of life for older people with depressive symptoms as much as the effect of social visits. Future social and activity interventions should be tested against a true usual care control.
Resumo:
The importance of applying unsaturated soil mechanics to geotechnical engineering design has been well understood. However, the consumption of time and the necessity for a specific laboratory testing apparatus when measuring unsaturated soil properties have limited the application of unsaturated soil mechanics theories in practice. Although methods for predicting unsaturated soil properties have been developed, the verification of these methods for a wide range of soil types is required in order to increase the confidence of practicing engineers in using these methods. In this study, a new permeameter was developed to measure the hydraulic conductivity of unsaturated soils using the steady-state method and directly measured suction (negative pore-water pressure) values. The apparatus is instrumented with two tensiometers for the direct measurement of suction during the tests. The apparatus can be used to obtain the hydraulic conductivity function of sandy soil over a low suction range (0-10 kPa). Firstly, the repeatability of the unsaturated hydraulic conductivity measurement, using the new permeameter, was verified by conducting tests on two identical sandy soil specimens and obtaining similar results. The hydraulic conductivity functions of the two sandy soils were then measured during the drying and wetting processes of the soils. A significant hysteresis was observed when the hydraulic conductivity was plotted against the suction. However, the hysteresis effects were not apparent when the conductivity was plotted against the volumetric water content. Furthermore, the measured unsaturated hydraulic conductivity functions were compared with predictions using three different predictive methods that are widely incorporated into numerical software. The results suggest that these predictive methods are capable of capturing the measured behavior with reasonable agreement.
Resumo:
Energy prices are highly volatile and often feature unexpected spikes. It is the aim of this paper to examine whether the occurrence of these extreme price events displays any regularities that can be captured using an econometric model. Here we treat these price events as point processes and apply Hawkes and Poisson autoregressive models to model the dynamics in the intensity of this process.We use load and meteorological information to model the time variation in the intensity of the process. The models are applied to data from the Australian wholesale electricity market, and a forecasting exercise illustrates both the usefulness of these models and their limitations when attempting to forecast the occurrence of extreme price events.
Resumo:
BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE: To investigate the extent of baseline psychosocial characterisation of subjects in published dietary randomised controlled trials (RCTs) for weight loss. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Systematic review of adequately sized (nX10) RCTs comprising X1 diet-alone arm for weight loss were included for this systematic review. More specifically, trials included overweight (body mass index 425 kg/m2) adults, were of duration X8 weeks and had body weight as the primary outcome. Exclusion criteria included specific psychological intervention (for example, Cognitive Behaviour Therapy (CBT)), use of web-based tools, use of supplements, liquid diets, replacement meals and very-low calorie diets. Physical activity intervention was restricted to general exercise only (not supervised or prescribed, for example, VO2 maximum level). RESULTS: Of 176 weight-loss RCTs published during 2008–2010, 15 met selection criteria and were assessed for reported psychological characterisation of subjects. All studies reported standard characterisation of clinical and biochemical characteristics of subjects. Eleven studies reported no psychological attributes of subjects (three of these did exclude those taking psychoactive medication). Three studies collected data on particular aspects of psychology related to specific research objectives (figure scale rating, satiety and quality-of-life). Only one study provided a comprehensive background on psychological attributes of subjects. CONCLUSION: Better characterisation in behaviour-change interventions will reduce potential confounding and enhance generalisability of such studies.
Resumo:
The issue of particle emissions from diesel engines is still a matter of concern due its deleterious effects both on human health and environment(Ristovski et al., 2012). Recently, International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) inclusion of diesel engine exhaust particles as carcinogenic to human health added a new margin on it. Apart from the use of after treatment technology, biodiesel is also considered as potential way to reduce particle emission alongside with other emissions(Xue, Grift, & Hansen, 2011). Global biodiesel production is still reasonably small compared to its counterpart fossil diesel, but even this small amount comes from a wide variety of feed stocks. Contrary to fossil diesel, the important physicochemical properties of biodiesel vary among different feed stocks(Hoekman, Broch, Robbins, Ceniceros, & Natarajan, 2012).
Resumo:
Anterior knee pain is a common presenting complaint amongst adolescent athletes. We hypothesised that patellar tendinopathy may occur at a younger age than is generally recognised. Thus, we studied the patellar tendons in 134 elite 14- to 18-year-old female (n=64) and male (n=70) basketball players and 29 control swimmers (17 female, 12 male) clinically and with ultrasonography. We found that of 268 tendons, 19 (7%) had current patellar tendinopathy on clinical grounds (11% in males, 2% in females). Twenty-six percent of the basketball players' patellar tendons contained an ultrasonographic hypoechoic region. Ultrasonographic abnormality was more prevalent in the oldest tertile of players (17-18 years) than the youngest tertile (14-15.9 years). Of tendons categorised clinically as 'Never patellar tendinopathy', 22% had an ultrasonographic hypoechoic region nevertheless. This study indicates that patellar tendinopathy can occur in 14- to 18-year-old basketball players. Ultrasonographic tendon abnormality is 3 times as common as clinical symptoms