Dowscaling estocástico para extremos climáticos via interpolação espacial

Present day weather forecast models usually cannot provide realistic descriptions of local and particulary extreme weather conditions. However, for lead times of about a small number of days, they provide reliable forecast of the atmospheric circulation that encompasses the subscale processes leading to extremes. Hence, forecasts of extreme events can only be achieved through a combination of dynamical and statistical analysis methods, where a stable and significant statistical model based on prior physical reasoning establishes posterior statistical-dynamical model between the local extremes and the large scale circulation. Here we present the development and application of such a statistical model calibration on the besis of extreme value theory, in order to derive probabilistic forecast for extreme local temperature. The dowscaling applies to NCEP/NCAR re-analysis, in order to derive estimates of daily temperature at Brazilian northeastern region weather stations

Não vício assintótico, consistência forte e uniformemente forte de estimadores do tipo núcleo para dados direcionais sobre uma esfera unitária k-dimensional

In this work we studied the asymptotic unbiasedness, the strong and the uniform strong consistencies of a class of kernel estimators fn as an estimator of the density function f taking values on a k-dimensional sphere

Métodos numéricos para resolução de equações diferenciais ordinárias lineares baseados em interpolação por spline

In this work we have elaborated a spline-based method of solution of inicial value problems involving ordinary differential equations, with emphasis on linear equations. The method can be seen as an alternative for the traditional solvers such as Runge-Kutta, and avoids root calculations in the linear time invariant case. The method is then applied on a central problem of control theory, namely, the step response problem for linear EDOs with possibly varying coefficients, where root calculations do not apply. We have implemented an efficient algorithm which uses exclusively matrix-vector operations. The working interval (till the settling time) was determined through a calculation of the least stable mode using a modified power method. Several variants of the method have been compared by simulation. For general linear problems with fine grid, the proposed method compares favorably with the Euler method. In the time invariant case, where the alternative is root calculation, we have indications that the proposed method is competitive for equations of sifficiently high order.

Estimadores do tipo núcleo para Variávei s I.I.D. com espaço de estados geral

In this work, the paper of Campos and Dorea [3] was detailed. In that article a Kernel Estimator was applied to a sequence of random variables with general state space, which were independent and identicaly distributed. In chapter 2, the estimator´s properties such as asymptotic unbiasedness, consistency in quadratic mean, strong consistency and asymptotic normality were verified. In chapter 3, using R software, numerical experiments were developed in order to give a visual idea of the estimate process

Estimação clássica e Bayesiana em modelos de sobrevida com fração de cura

In Survival Analysis, long duration models allow for the estimation of the healing fraction, which represents a portion of the population immune to the event of interest. Here we address classical and Bayesian estimation based on mixture models and promotion time models, using different distributions (exponential, Weibull and Pareto) to model failure time. The database used to illustrate the implementations is described in Kersey et al. (1987) and it consists of a group of leukemia patients who underwent a certain type of transplant. The specific implementations used were numeric optimization by BFGS as implemented in R (base::optim), Laplace approximation (own implementation) and Gibbs sampling as implemented in Winbugs. We describe the main features of the models used, the estimation methods and the computational aspects. We also discuss how different prior information can affect the Bayesian estimates

Uma estratégia aleatória chamada de MOSES

This paper we study a random strategy called MOSES, which was introduced in 1996 by Fran¸cois. Asymptotic results of this strategy; behavior of the stationary distributions of the chain associated to strategy, were derived by Fran¸cois, in 1998, of the theory of Freidlin and Wentzell [8]. Detailings of these results are in this work. Moreover, we noted that an alternative approach the convergence of this strategy is possible without making use of theory of Freidlin and Wentzell, yielding the visit almost certain of the strategy to uniform populations which contain the minimum. Some simulations in Matlab are presented in this work

Análise de resíduos em modelos de tempo de falha acelerado com efeito aleatório

We present residual analysis techniques to assess the fit of correlated survival data by Accelerated Failure Time Models (AFTM) with random effects. We propose an imputation procedure for censored observations and consider three types of residuals to evaluate different model characteristics. We illustrate the proposal with the analysis of AFTM with random effects to a real data set involving times between failures of oil well equipment

Algoritmos genéticos canônico e elitista: uma abordagem comparativa

Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte

Consequências da análise inadequada de um experimento fatorial 2k am parcelas subdivididas e sem replicação

Em experimentos com vários fatores em que alguns são mais difíceis de mudar que outros, pode ser inconveniente executar as provas do experimento em uma forma completamente aleatória, levando o pesquisador a criar naturalmente uma restrição na ordem de execução para poupar tempo ou reduzir os custos. Este tipo de restrição pode resultar em uma generalização do planejamento fatorial, conhecida como experimentos em parcelas subdivididas. Na prática, é comum executar um experimento em parcelas subdivididas e analisá-lo como se fosse completamente aleatorizado. O objetivo principal do trabalho é avaliar o impacto de analisar um experimento com restrição na aleatorização como completamente aleatorizado

Conjuntos numéricos

In this work, we present a text on the Sets Numerical using the human social needs as a tool for construction new numbers. This material is intended to present a text that reconciles the correct teaching of mathmatics and clarity needed for a good learning

Avaliação do comportamento termoanalítico e oxidativo do biodiesel de mamona

In this work biodiesel was gotten through the transesterification reaction using the oil of castor as source of triglycerides and using the methylic route for obtaining of esters. For the characterization of biodiesel and its mixtures with mineral diesel oil, physical chemical parameters and several analytical techniques had been used, as well as: gas chromatography (GC), nuclear magnetic resonance of proton (1H NMR), infrared spectroscopy (IR) and thermal analysis. The chromatography confirmed the complete reaction of esters in biodiesel presenting a 97,08% conversion. The 1H - NMR presented singlet in 3,6 ppm corresponding to the hydrogen of the group ester RCOO CH3. The infrared presented a strong band in 1741 cm-1 referring to stretching C=O of ester and an average band in 1175 cm-1 referring C O deformation. With the data of thermal analysis it was possible to observe the thermal and oxidative stability of the samples changing the atmospheres of synthetic air and nitrogen, where stages of the thermal decomposition had been verified and had been attributed to the volatilization and/or decomposition of the triacylglycerides. The thermal degradation of the samples was carried through 150 and 210°C during 1, 12, 24 and 48 hours and was observed change in the thermogravimetric profile, therefore an increase in the number of stages of the thermal decomposition also occurred indicating characteristic intermediate composites of polymerization, being this confirmed through the rheological study that presented brusque increase of viscosity. The kinetic study showed that the activation energy has the following order: biodiesel > mineral diesel oil > mixtures biodiesel/diesel

Desenvolvimento de um biossensor potenciométrico, à base de soja, para a determinação de uréia

In this work, the objective in study was the development of a biossensor potencyometric for urea detection, starting from the extracted urease of soy grains. Initially, was made a chemometrics study, through a planning factorial 24, objectified to find great conditions for the extraction of the urease without its properties were affected. Starting from this study, the best conditions were determined for the obtaining of rich extracts in urease, allowing the biossensors making with good characteristics. These were made using a platinum electrode as transducer with the dispersed urease in chitosan head office and reticulated in glutaraldehyde vapor. The biossensors obtained presented a limit of urea detection the same to 0,33 mM and lineal strip between 0,33 and 3 mM of the substratum. The time of answer was considered loud, mainly, in low concentrations of the substratum, where it was taken about 5 minutes by analysis. For high concentrations that time was reduced for not more than one minute. The time of life was limited by the adherence of the enzymatic membrane to the transducer, but it was possible to maintain the biossensor with operation for one month with about 50 accomplished measures. Application of the biossensor for analyses of fertilizers to the urea base presented excellent result for a sample with few interfering, but it was different when the used fertilizer was originating from of a complex sample. Even so the label was not expressed the text of nitrogen it was totally coming of the urea. An evaluation of the kinetic parameters of the catalytic reaction of the biossensor showed coherence with the results exposed in the literature

Investigação da estabilidade térmica e das propriedades elétricas do TiO2 em função da dopagem com Ce(SO4)2

The metalic oxides have been studies due to differents applications as materials semiconductor in solar cells, catalysts, full cells and, resistors. Titanium dioxide (TiO2) has a high electric conductivity due to oxygen vacancies. The Ce(SO4)2.2H2O doped samples TiO2 and TiO2 pure was obtained sol-gel process, and characterized by X-ray diffractometry,thermal analysis, and impedance spectroscopy. The X-ray diffraction patterns for TiO2 pure samples shows at 700°C anatase phase is absent, and only the diffraction peaks of rutile phase are observed. However, the cerium doped samples only at 900°C rutile in the phase present with peaks of cerium dioxide (CeO2). The thermal analysis of the TiO2 pure and small concentration cerium doped samples show two steps weight loss corresponding to water of hydration and chemisorbed. To larger concentration cerium doped samples were observed two steps weight loss in the transformation of the doped cerium possible intermediate species and SO3. Finally, two steps weight loss the end products CeO2 and SO3 are formed. Analyse electric properties at different temperatures and concentration cerium doped samples have been investigated by impedance spectroscopy. It was observed that titanium, can be substituted by cerium, changing its electric properties, and increased thermal stability of TiO2 anatase structure

Síntese e caracterização de componentes nanoestruturados de células a combustível de óxidos sólidos

Perovskite-like ceramic materials present the general formula ABO3, where A is a rare earth element or an alkaline metal element, and B is a transition metal. These materials are strong candidates to assume the position of cathode in Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFC), because they present thermal stability at elevated temperatures and interesting chemical and physical properties, such as superconductivity, dieletricity, magnetic resistivity, piezoelectricity, catalytic activity and electrocatalytic and optical properties. In this work the cathodes of Solid Oxide Fuel Cells with the perovskite structure of La1-xSrxMnO3 (x = 0.15, 0.22, 0.30) and the electrolyte composed of zirconia-stabilized-yttria were synthesized by the Pechini method. The obtained resins were thermal treatment at 300 ºC for 2h and the obtained precursors were characterized by thermal analysis by DTA and TG / DTG. The powder precursors were calcined at temperatures from 450 to 1350ºC and were analyzed using XRD, FTIR, laser granulometry, XRF, surface area measurement by BET and SEM methods. The pellets were sintered from the powder to the study of bulk density and thermal expansion

Síntese e caracterização de látices acrílicos reticulados com (1,6-diacrilato propoxilato hexanodiol) via polimerização em emulsão

Latices based on acrylic acid and ethyl methacrylate, crosslinked with 1,6‐propoxylate‐hexanodiol diacrylate were synthesized via emulsion polymerization with different monomeric compositions. The resultant latices were thickened with different NaOH/(acrylic acid) molar ratios and were characterized by titrimetry, zeta potential measurements, turbidimetry, and capillary viscometry. Intrinsic viscosity was determined for an uncrosslinked copolymer, using toluene as solvent. All the latices were coagulated with NaCl and washed with water at 60°C analyzed by FTIR spectrophotometry, in order to characterize functional groups from the copolymer and crosslinking agent.