Is confidence in decisions related to feedback? Evidence-and lack of evidence-from random samples of real-world managerial behavior?

Confidence in decision making is an important dimension of managerialbehavior. However, what is the relation between confidence, on the onehand, and the fact of receiving or expecting to receive feedback ondecisions taken, on the other hand? To explore this and related issuesin the context of everyday decision making, use was made of the ESM(Experience Sampling Method) to sample decisions taken by undergraduatesand business executives. For several days, participants received 4 or 5SMS messages daily (on their mobile telephones) at random moments at whichpoint they completed brief questionnaires about their current decisionmaking activities. Issues considered here include differences between thetypes of decisions faced by the two groups, their structure, feedback(received and expected), and confidence in decisions taken as well as inthe validity of feedback. No relation was found between confidence indecisions and whether participants received or expected to receivefeedback on those decisions. In addition, although participants areclearly aware that feedback can provide both confirming and disconfirming evidence, their ability to specify appropriatefeedback is imperfect. Finally, difficulties experienced inusing the ESM are discussed as are possibilities for further researchusing this methodology.

Stock returns, term structure, inflation and real activity: An international perspective

This paper analyses the empirical interdependences among assetreturns, real activity and inflation from a multicountry and internationalpoint of view. We find that nominal stock returns are significantly relatedto inflation only in the US, that the US term structure of interest ratespredicts both domestic and foreign inflation rates while foreign termstructures do not have this predictive power and that innovations in inflationand exchange rates induce insignificant responses of real and financialvariables. An interpretation of the dynamics and some policy implicationsof the results are provided.

2008 Iowa Real Property Appraisal Manual, May 2008

********NOTE: There are nine sections to this manual, all in separate files.************* **********NOTE: Large files may take longer to open******** The basis of real property assessment in Iowa is market value as defined in Iowa Code §441.21. Iowa Code §§ 421.17(17) and 441.21(h) provide that assessment jurisdictions follow the guidelines and rules in this manual to help achieve uniformity in assessments. Assessors are encouraged to use the International Association of Assessing Officers’ Standard on Mass Appraisal of Real Property in their mass appraisal practices. Estimating market value in mass appraisal involves accurately listing properties, developing a sales file that includes the primary influences on market value, and developing models for subsets of properties that share common market influences using recognized mass appraisal techniques. The assessment of an individual property should not be based solely on the sale price. The Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice (USPAP) standard 6 says “In developing a mass appraisal, an appraiser must be aware of, understand, and correctly employ those recognized methods and techniques necessary to produce and communicate credible mass appraisals.” Accurate listing of property is the basis of a good mass appraisal program. On-site inspection and listing of property is essential in developing a good data base for revaluation. A physical review, including an on-site verification of property characteristics, should be conducted at least every four to six years. Land values should be reviewed every two years. Factors influencing the market of each property type should be identified and collected so that these factors can be considered in the mass appraisal model. It is equally important to maintain the data once it is collected. Accessing local government permit systems should be a part of a good data maintenance program along with an inspection program. Current cadastral maps and geographical information systems (GIS) are tools that are integral in checking accuracy of listings and maintaining a comprehensive data base.

Forecasting with missing data: Application to a real case

This paper presents a comparative analysis of linear and mixed modelsfor short term forecasting of a real data series with a high percentage of missing data. Data are the series of significant wave heights registered at regular periods of three hours by a buoy placed in the Bay of Biscay.The series is interpolated with a linear predictor which minimizes theforecast mean square error. The linear models are seasonal ARIMA models and themixed models have a linear component and a non linear seasonal component.The non linear component is estimated by a non parametric regression of dataversus time. Short term forecasts, no more than two days ahead, are of interestbecause they can be used by the port authorities to notice the fleet.Several models are fitted and compared by their forecasting behavior.

Falling real wages during an industrial revolution

The Industrial Revolution was characterized by technologicalprogress and an increasing capital intensity. Why did real wages stagnateor fall in the beginning? I answer this question by modeling the IndustrialRevolution as the introduction of a relatively more capital intensiveproduction method in a standard neoclassical framework. I show that{\sl real wages fall in the beginning of an industrial revolution if andonly if technological progress in the relatively more capital intensivesector is relatively fast.}

Uso de Tecnologias no Estudo de Funções Reais de Variável Real

Este trabalho aborda uma reflexão teórica de alguns autores sobre a inserção das tecnologias na educação, reflectindo sobre as mudanças que ocorrerão no papel dos vários elementos inseridos na comunidade educativa, realçando o trabalho do professor e o seu novo papel na sociedade da informação. O professor de matemática assim como os outros tem muitos desafios nessa nova era, principalmente porque a matemática é uma disciplina vista com maus olhos por muitos alunos e com as tecnologias talvez possa mudar essa percepção. Faz-se uma abordagem dos diferentes softwares educativos e as calculadoras gráficas, demonstrando as mais valias que trazem a educação e como o professor pode explorar esses softwares, de modo a levar seus alunos a construir o conhecimento e a sentirem-se motivados com o uso de tecnologias nas salas de aulas. No trabalho é feito uma breve análise histórica do conceito de função, pode-se constatar que as funções foram idealizadas desde os primórdios com o trabalho e a contribuição de muitos autores durante vários séculos, chegou-- se a uma definição que é usado até hoje e pode-se então realizar um estudo mais eficaz das várias funções existentes utilizando os conceitos de limites, continuidade e derivadas, que ajudam a resolver vários problemas reais do dia a dia. Analisa-se vários softwares que podem ser utilizados no estudo de funções e que podem ser aplicados nas salas de aulas, exemplo: Graphmática, Winplot, Estudo de Funções, Trigonometria e calculadoras gráficas, onde se realiza o estudo de alguns problemas dando assim uma ideia de como podem ser utilizados nas aulas de matemática. Foi realizado um estudo estatístico no 3º ciclo das escolas secundárias de S.Vicente com o intuito de saber se as tecnologias são utilizadas nas aulas de matemática, como os alunos e os professores se sentem ao utilizarem as tecnologias e se há uma relação entre usar as tecnologias e estar motivado.

Física i esport: estudi d'un moviment real mitjançant vídeo

Treball de recerca realitzat per alumnes d’ensenyament secundari i guardonat amb un Premi CIRIT per fomentar l'esperit científic del Jovent l’any 2010. L’objectiu inicial ha estat l'anàlisi mitjançant una càmera de vídeo d'un moviment parabòlic real, un salt de longitud, per intentar combinar física i esport. Però, com quasi sempre quan un investiga de forma rigorosa i atenta, es va obrir una porta, un nou objectiu. La comparació entre salts d'un amateur i uns professionals ens va permetre descobrir la tècnica dels saltadors, que d'altra banda complicava el moviment. El descobriment que amb una petita implementació tècnica podíem millorar la marca de salt va reorientar el treball i li va donar la vessant esportiva desitjada. S’ha seguit una metodologia d'observació i anàlisi experimental i d'aplicació del coneixement fent servir una tècnica, encara que no nova, poc utilitzada en treballs d'aquests nivells, el tractament de vídeos com a sensors cinemàtics. A través del processament fotograma a fotograma amb el software MultiLab s'han pogut identificar les variables involucrades en l'optimització del salt; s'han comparat les evolucions en els diferents salts i s'ha après d'aquest anàlisi per aplicar-ho a la millora. No cal oblidar una primera recerca documental, incloses les entrevistes a professionals.

Multicenter, Prospective Clinical Evaluation of Respiratory Samples from Subjects at Risk for Pneumocystis jirovecii Infection by Use of a Commercial Real-Time PCR Assay.

Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia (PCP) is a common opportunistic infection. Microscopic diagnosis, including diagnosis using the Merifluor-Pneumocystis direct fluorescent antigen (MP-DFA) test, has limitations. Real-time PCR may assist in diagnosis, but no commercially validated real-time PCR assay has been available to date. MycAssay Pneumocystis is a commercial assay that targets the P. jirovecii mitochondrial large subunit (analytical detection limit, ≤3.5 copies/μl of sample). A multicenter trial recruited 110 subjects: 54 with transplants (40 with lung transplants), 32 with nonmalignant conditions, 13 with leukemia, and 11 with solid tumors; 9 were HIV positive. A total of 110 respiratory samples (92% of which were bronchoalveolar lavage [BAL] specimens) were analyzed by PCR. Performance was characterized relative to investigator-determined clinical diagnosis of PCP (including local diagnostic tests), and PCR results were compared with MP-DFA test results for 83 subjects. Thirteen of 14 subjects with PCP and 9/96 without PCP (including 5 undergoing BAL surveillance after lung transplantation) had positive PCR results; sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV, respectively) were 93%, 91%, 59%, and 99%, respectively. Fourteen of 83 subjects for whom PCR and MP-DFA test results were available had PCP; PCR sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV were 93%, 90%, 65%, and 98%, respectively, and MP-DFA test sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV were 93%, 100%, 100%, and 98%. Of the 9 PCR-positive subjects without PCP, 1 later developed PCP. The PCR diagnostic assay compares well with clinical diagnosis using nonmolecular methods. Additional positive results compared with the MP-DFA test may reflect low-level infection or colonization.

Application of real-time PCR for total airborne bacterial assessment : comparison with epifluorescence microscopy and culture-dependent methods

Traditional culture-dependent methods to quantify and identify airborne microorganisms are limited by factors such as short-duration sampling times and inability to count nonculturableor non-viable bacteria. Consequently, the quantitative assessment of bioaerosols is often underestimated. Use of the real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (Q-PCR) to quantify bacteria in environmental samples presents an alternative method, which should overcome this problem. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of a real-time Q-PCR assay as a simple and reliable way to quantify the airborne bacterial load within poultry houses and sewage treatment plants, in comparison with epifluorescencemicroscopy and culture-dependent methods. The estimates of bacterial load that we obtained from real-time PCR and epifluorescence methods, are comparable, however, our analysis of sewage treatment plants indicate these methods give values 270-290 fold greater than those obtained by the ''impaction on nutrient agar'' method. The culture-dependent method of air impaction on nutrient agar was also inadequate in poultry houses, as was the impinger-culture method, which gave a bacterial load estimate 32-fold lower than obtained by Q-PCR. Real-time quantitative PCR thus proves to be a reliable, discerning, and simple method that could be used to estimate airborne bacterial load in a broad variety of other environments expected to carry high numbers of airborne bacteria. [Authors]

Relationship between motion of coronary arteries and diaphragm during free breathing: lessons from real-time MR imaging.

OBJECTIVE: Diaphragmatic navigators are frequently used in free-breathing coronary MR angiography, either to gate or prospectively correct slice position or both. For such approaches, a constant relationship between coronary and diaphragmatic displacement throughout the respiratory cycle is assumed. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the relationship between diaphragmatic and coronary artery motion during free breathing. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: A real-time echoplanar MR imaging sequence was used in 12 healthy volunteers to obtain 30 successive images each (one per cardiac cycle) that included the left main coronary artery and the domes of both hemidiaphragms. The coronary artery and diaphragm positions (relative to isocenter) were determined and analyzed for effective diaphragmatic gating windows of 3, 5, and 7 mm (diaphragmatic excursions of 0-3, 0-5, and 0-7 mm from the end-expiratory position, respectively). RESULTS: Although the mean slope correlating the displacement of the right diaphragm and the left main coronary artery was approximately 0.6 for all diaphragmatic gating windows, we also found great variability among individual volunteers. Linear regression slopes varied from 0.17 to 0.93, and r2 values varied from .04 to .87. CONCLUSION: Wide individual variability exists in the relationship between coronary and diaphragmatic respiratory motion during free breathing. Accordingly, coronary MR angiographic approaches that use diaphragmatic navigator position for prospective slice correction may benefit from patient-specific correction factors. Alternatively, coronary MR angiography may benefit from a more direct assessment of the respiratory displacement of the heart and coronary arteries, using left ventricular navigators.

L’Impacte real de l’Enfocament Basat en els Drets Humans com a eina per a la transformació político-social d’una regió

Aquest estudi pretén donar resposta a la hipòtesi de si l’enfocament basat en drets humans (EBDH) suposa un nou paradigma de treball dins el sistema de cooperació internacional per al desenvolupament per a la veritable transformació socio-política d’una regió. L’estudi en cap cas se centra només en els drets humans, sinó en l’EBDH com una metodologia de treball dins l’àmbit de la cooperació internacional al desenvolupament la qual vol donar resposta a l’objectiu de reduir la pobresa i combatre la injustícia social.

Sistemes encastats en temps real

Resum En l’actualitat, els sistemes electrònics de processament de dades són cada cop més significatius dins del sector industrial. Són moltes les necessitats que sorgeixen en el món dels sistemes d’autentificació, de l’electrònica aeronàutica, d’equips d’emmagatzemament de dades, de telecomunicacions, etc. Aquestes necessitats tecnològiques exigeixen ser controlades per un sistema fiable, robust, totalment dependent amb els esdeveniments externs i que compleixi correctament les restriccions temporals imposades per tal de que realitzi el seu propòsit d’una manera eficient. Aquí és on entren en joc els sistemes encastats en temps real, els quals ofereixen una gran fiabilitat, disponibilitat, una ràpida resposta als esdeveniments externs del sistema, una alta garantia de funcionament i una àmplia possibilitat d’aplicacions. Aquest projecte està pensat per a fer una introducció al món dels sistemes encastats, com també explicar el funcionament del sistema operatiu en temps real FreeRTOS; el qual utilitza com a mètode de programació l’ús de tasques independents entre elles. Donarem una visió de les seves característiques de funcionament, com organitza tasques mitjançant un scheduler i uns exemples per a poder dissenyar-hi aplicacions.