Convective updraught evaluation in high-resolution NWP simulations using single-Doppler radar measurements

This study presents an evaluation of the size and strength of convective updraughts in high-resolution simulations by the UK Met Office Unified Model (UM). Updraught velocities have been estimated from range–height indicator (RHI) Doppler velocity measurements using the Chilbolton advanced meteorological radar, as part of the Dynamical and Microphysical Evolution of Convective Storms (DYMECS) project. Based on mass continuity and the vertical integration of the observed radial convergence, vertical velocities tend to be underestimated for convective clouds due to the undetected cross-radial convergence. Velocity fields from the UM at a resolution corresponding to the radar observations are used to scale such estimates to mitigate the inherent biases. The analysis of more than 100 observed and simulated storms indicates that the horizontal scale of updraughts in simulations tend to decrease with grid length; the 200 m grid length agreed most closely with the observations. Typical updraught mass fluxes in the 500 m grid length simulations were up to an order of magnitude greater than observed, and greater still in the 1.5 km grid length simulations. The effect of increasing the mixing length in the sub-grid turbulence scheme depends on the grid length. For the 1.5 km simulations, updraughts were weakened though their horizontal scale remained largely unchanged. Progressively more so for the sub-kilometre grid lengths, updraughts were broadened and intensified; horizontal scale was now determined by the mixing length rather than the grid length. In general, simulated updraughts were found to weaken too quickly with height. The findings were supported by the analysis of the widths of reflectivity patterns in both the simulations and observations.

Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones in a multi-model ensemble of historical and future simulations

This study has investigated serial (temporal) clustering of extra-tropical cyclones simulated by 17 climate models that participated in CMIP5. Clustering was estimated by calculating the dispersion (ratio of variance to mean) of 30 December-February counts of Atlantic storm tracks passing nearby each grid point. Results from single historical simulations of 1975-2005 were compared to those from historical ERA40 reanalyses from 1958-2001 ERA40 and single future model projections of 2069-2099 under the RCP4.5 climate change scenario. Models were generally able to capture the broad features in reanalyses reported previously: underdispersion/regularity (i.e. variance less than mean) in the western core of the Atlantic storm track surrounded by overdispersion/clustering (i.e. variance greater than mean) to the north and south and over western Europe. Regression of counts onto North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices revealed that much of the overdispersion in the historical reanalyses and model simulations can be accounted for by NAO variability. Future changes in dispersion were generally found to be small and not consistent across models. The overdispersion statistic, for any 30 year sample, is prone to large amounts of sampling uncertainty that obscures the climate change signal. For example, the projected increase in dispersion for storm counts near London in the CNRMCM5 model is 0.1 compared to a standard deviation of 0.25. Projected changes in the mean and variance of NAO are insufficient to create changes in overdispersion that are discernible above natural sampling variations.

Scenarios of technology adoption towards low-carbon cities

Technological change has often been presented as a readily accepted means by which long-term greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions can be achieved. Cities are the future centers of economic growth, with the global population becoming predominantly urban; hence, increases or reductions of GHG emissions are tied to their energy strategies. This research examines the likelihood of a developed world city (the Greater Toronto Area) achieving an 80% reduction in GHG emissions through policy-enabled technological change. Emissions are examined from 3 major sources: light duty passenger vehicles, residential buildings and commercial/institutional buildings. Logistic diffusion curves are applied for the adoption of alternative vehicle technologies, building retrofits and high performance new building construction. This research devises high, low and business-as-usual estimates of future technological adoption and finds that even aggressive scenarios are not sufficient to achieve an 80% reduction in GHG emissions by 2050. This further highlights the challenges faced in maintaining a relatively stable climate. Urban policy makers must consider that the longer the lag before this transition occurs, the greater the share of GHG emissions mitigation that must addressed through behavioural change in order to meet the 2050 target, which likely poses greater political challenges.

Collocating satellite-based radar and radiometer measurements — methodology and usage examples

Collocations between two satellite sensors are occasions where both sensors observe the same place at roughly the same time. We study collocations between the Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS) on-board NOAA-18 and the Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR) on-board CloudSat. First, a simple method is presented to obtain those collocations and this method is compared with a more complicated approach found in literature. We present the statistical properties of the collocations, with particular attention to the effects of the differences in footprint size. For 2007, we find approximately two and a half million MHS measurements with CPR pixels close to their centrepoints. Most of those collocations contain at least ten CloudSat pixels and image relatively homogeneous scenes. In the second part, we present three possible applications for the collocations. Firstly, we use the collocations to validate an operational Ice Water Path (IWP) product from MHS measurements, produced by the National Environment Satellite, Data and Information System (NESDIS) in the Microwave Surface and Precipitation Products System (MSPPS). IWP values from the CloudSat CPR are found to be significantly larger than those from the MSPPS. Secondly, we compare the relation between IWP and MHS channel 5 (190.311 GHz) brightness temperature for two datasets: the collocated dataset, and an artificial dataset. We find a larger variability in the collocated dataset. Finally, we use the collocations to train an Artificial Neural Network and describe how we can use it to develop a new MHS-based IWP product. We also study the effect of adding measurements from the High Resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder (HIRS), channels 8 (11.11 μm) and 11 (8.33 μm). This shows a small improvement in the retrieval quality. The collocations described in the article are available for public use.

Cue properties change timing strategies in group movement synchronisation

To maintain synchrony in group activities, each individual within the group must continuously correct their movements to remain in time with the temporal cues available. Cues might originate from one or more members of the group. Current research suggests that when synchronising movements, individuals optimise their performance in terms of minimising variability of timing errors (asynchronies) between external cues and their own movements. However, the cost of this is an increase in the timing variability of their own movements. Here we investigate whether an individual’s timing strategy changes according to the task, in a group scenario. To investigate this, we employed a novel paradigm that positioned six individuals to form two chains with common origin and termination on the circumference of a circle. We found that participants with access to timing cues from only one other member used a strategy to minimise their asynchrony variance. In contrast, the participant at the common termination of the two chains, who was required to integrate timing cues from two members, used a strategy that minimised movement variability. We conclude that humans are able to flexibly switch timekeeping strategies to maintain task demands and thus optimise the temporal performance of their movements.

Designing in caves: using immersive visualisations in design practice

This paper describes a study of the use of immersive Virtual reality technologies in the design of a new hospital. It uses Schön’s concept of reflective practice and video-based methods to analyse the ways design teams approach and employ a full scale 3D immersive environment – a CAVE – in collaborative design work. The analysis describes four themes relating to reflective practice occurring in the setting: orienting to the CAVE technology itself, orienting to the representation of the specific design within the CAVE, activities accounting for, or exploring alternatives within the design for the use and users of the space, and more strategic interactions around how to best represent the design and model to the client within the CAVE setting. The analysis also reveals some unique aspects of design work in this environment. Perhaps most significantly, rather than enhancing or adding to an existing understanding of design through paper based or non-immersive digital representations, it is often acting to challenge or surprise the participants as they experience the immersive, full scale version of their own design.

The role of evaporating showers in the transfer of sting-jet momentum to the surface

The most damaging winds in a severe extratropical cyclone often occur just ahead of the evaporating ends of cloud filaments emanating from the so-called cloud head. These winds are associated with low-level jets (LLJs), sometimes occurring just above the boundary layer. The question then arises as to how the high momentum is transferred to the surface. An opportunity to address this question arose when the severe ‘St Jude's Day’ windstorm travelled across southern England on 28 October 2013. We have carried out a mesoanalysis of a network of 1 min resolution automatic weather stations and high-resolution Doppler radar scans from the sensitive S-band Chilbolton Advanced Meteorological Radar (CAMRa), along with satellite and radar network imagery and numerical weather prediction products. We show that, although the damaging winds occurred in a relatively dry region of the cyclone, there was evidence within the LLJ of abundant precipitation residues from shallow convective clouds that were evaporating in a localized region of descent. We find that pockets of high momentum were transported towards the surface by the few remaining actively precipitating convective clouds within the LLJ and also by precipitation-free convection in the boundary layer that was able to entrain evaporatively cooled air from the LLJ. The boundary-layer convection was organized in along-wind rolls separated by 500 to about 3000 m, the spacing varying according to the vertical extent of the convection. The spacing was greatest where the strongest winds penetrated to the surface. A run with a medium-resolution version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was able to reproduce the properties of the observed LLJ. It confirmed the LLJ to be a sting jet, which descended over the leading edge of a weaker cold-conveyor-belt jet.

Crosstalk between oestrogen receptors and thyroid hormone receptor isoforms results in differential regulation of the preproenkephalin gene

Nuclear receptors are ligand-activated transcription factors, which have the potential to integrate internal metabolic events in an organism, with consequences for control of behaviour. Previous studies from this laboratory have shown that thyroid hormone receptor (TR) isoforms can inhibit oestrogen receptor (ER)alpha-mediated induction of preproenkephalin (PPE) gene expression in the hypothalamus. Also, thyroid hormone administration inhibits lordosis, a behaviour facilitated by PPE expression. We have examined the effect of multiple ligand-binding TR isoforms on the ER-mediated induction of the PPE gene in transient transfection assays in CV-1 cells. On a natural PPE gene promoter fragment containing two putative oestrogen response elements (EREs), both ER alpha and beta isoforms mediate a four to five-fold induction by oestrogen. Cotransfection of TR alpha 1 along with ER alpha inhibited the ER alpha transactivation of PPE by approximately 50%. However, cotransfection with either TR beta 1 or TR beta 2 expression plasmids produced no effect on the ER alpha or ER beta mediated induction of PPE. Therefore, under these experimental conditions, interactions with a single ER isoform are specific to an individual TR isoform. Transfection with a TR alpha 1 DNA-binding mutant could also inhibit ER alpha transactivation, suggesting that competition for binding on the ERE may not be the exclusive mechanism for inhibition. Data with the coactivator, SRC-1, suggested that coactivator squelching may participate in the inhibition. In dramatic contrast, when ER beta is cotransfected, TR alpha 1 stimulated ER beta-mediated transactivation of PPE by approximately eight-fold over control levels. This is the first study revealing specific interactions among nuclear receptor isoforms on a neuroendocrine promoter. These data also suggest that the combinatorics of ER and TR isoforms allow multiple forms of flexible gene regulations in the service of neuroendocrine integration.

Analytical solutions of accreting black holes immersed in a Lambda CDM model

The evolution of the mass of a black hole embedded in a universe filled with dark energy and cold dark matter is calculated in a closed form within a test fluid model in a Schwarzschild metric, taking into account the cosmological evolution of both fluids. The result describes exactly how accretion asymptotically switches from the matter-dominated to the Lambda-dominated regime. For early epochs, the black hole mass increases due to dark matter accretion, and on later epochs the increase in mass stops as dark energy accretion takes over. Thus, the unphysical behaviour of previous analyses is improved in this simple exact model. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influence of the halo upon angular distributions for elastic scattering and breakup

The angular distributions for elastic scattering and breakup of halo nuclei are analysed using a near-side/far-side decomposition within the framework of the dynamical eikonal approximation. This analysis is performed for (11)Be impinging on Pb at 69 MeV/nucleon. These distributions exhibit very similar features. In particular they are both near-side dominated, as expected from Coulomb-dominated reactions. The general shape of these distributions is sensitive mostly to the projectile-target interactions, but is also affected by the extension of the halo. This suggests the elastic scattering not to be affected by a loss of flux towards the breakup channel. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spontaneous breaking of superconformal invariance in (2+1) D supersymmetric Chern-Simons-matter theories in the large N limit

In this work we study the spontaneous breaking of superconformal and gauge invariances in the Abelian N = 1,2 three-dimensional supersymmetric Chern-Simons-matter (SCSM) theories in a large N flavor limit. We compute the Kahlerian effective superpotential at subleading order in 1/N and show that the Coleman-Weinberg mechanism is responsible for the dynamical generation of a mass scale in the N = 1 model. This effect appears due to two-loop diagrams that are logarithmic divergent. We also show that the Coleman-Weinberg mechanism fails when we lift from the N = 1 to the N = 2 SCSM model. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Dependence of Response Functions and Orbital Functionals on Occupation Numbers

Explicitly orbital-dependent approximations to the exchange-correlation energy functional of density functional theory typically not only depend on the single-particle Kohn-Sham orbitals but also on their occupation numbers in the ground-state Slater determinant. The variational calculation of the corresponding exchange-correlation potentials with the optimized effective potential (OEP) method therefore also requires a variation of the occupation numbers with respect to a variation in the effective single-particle potential, which is usually not taken into account. Here it is shown under which circumstances this procedure is justified.

Bayesian Estimation of the Logistic Positive Exponent IRT Model

A Bayesian inference approach using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is developed for the logistic positive exponent (LPE) model proposed by Samejima and for a new skewed Logistic Item Response Theory (IRT) model, named Reflection LPE model. Both models lead to asymmetric item characteristic curves (ICC) and can be appropriate because a symmetric ICC treats both correct and incorrect answers symmetrically, which results in a logical contradiction in ordering examinees on the ability scale. A data set corresponding to a mathematical test applied in Peruvian public schools is analyzed, where comparisons with other parametric IRT models also are conducted. Several model comparison criteria are discussed and implemented. The main conclusion is that the LPE and RLPE IRT models are easy to implement and seem to provide the best fit to the data set considered.

Mechanistic study of the addition reaction of TeCl(4) to alkynes: Participation of TeCl(3) centered-radical

The mechanism of the addition reaction of TeCl(4) to alkynes was indirectly established by the detection of TeCl(3) centered radicals using EPR spin trapping, ESI-MS and ESI-MS/MS characterization. Crown Copyright (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

Hydrochalcogenation of activated olefines. Synthesis of functionalized dialkylchalcogenides

Alkanethiols, selenols and tellurols are generated in situ by reaction of elemental sulfur, selenium and tellurium with commercial alkyllithiums, followed by reaction with deoxygenated water. The alkanechalcogenols react in situ with activated ole. ns in a Michael- type addition reaction. (c) 2008 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.