944 resultados para climatic extremes
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This paper defines and discusses two contrasting approaches to designing game environments. The first, referred to as scripting, requires developers to anticipate, hand-craft and script specific game objects, events and player interactions. The second, known as emergence, involves defining general, global rules that interact to give rise to emergent gameplay. Each of these approaches is defined, discussed and analyzed with respect to the considerations and affects for game developers and game players. Subsequently, various techniques for implementing these design approaches are identified and discussed. It is concluded that scripting and emergence are two extremes of the same continuum, neither of which are ideal for game development. Rather, there needs to be a compromise in which the boundaries of action (such as story and game objectives) can be hardcoded and non-scripted behavior (such as interactions and strategies) are able to emerge within these boundaries.
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The predicted changes in rainfall characteristics due to climate change could adversely affect stormwater quality in highly urbanised coastal areas throughout the world. This in turn will exert a significant influence on the discharge of pollutants to estuarine and marine waters. Hence, an in-depth analysis of the effects of such changes on the wash-off of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from urban roads in the Gold Coast region in Australia was undertaken. The rainfall characteristics were simulated using a rainfall simulator. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Multicriteria Decision tools such as PROMETHEE and GAIA were employed to understand the VOC wash-off under climate change. It was found that low, low to moderate and high rain events due to climate change will affect the wash-off of toluene, ethylbenzene, meta-xylene, para-xylene and ortho-xylene from urban roads in Gold Coast. Total organic carbon (TOC) was identified as predominant carrier of toluene, meta-xylene and para-xylene in <1µm to 150µm fractions and for ethylbenzene in 150µm to >300µm fractions under such dominant rain events due to climate change. However, ortho-xylene did not show such affinity towards either TOC or TSS (total suspended solids) under the simulated climatic conditions.
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Humankind has been dealing with all kinds of disasters since the dawn of time. The risk and impact of disasters producing mass casualties worldwide is increasing, due partly to global warming as well as to increased population growth, increased density and the aging population. China, as a country with a large population, vast territory, and complex climatic and geographical conditions, has been plagued by all kinds of disasters. Disaster health management has traditionally been a relatively arcane discipline within public health. However, SARS, Avian Influenza, and earthquakes and floods, along with the need to be better prepared for the Olympic Games in China has brought disasters, their management and their potential for large scale health consequences on populations to the attention of the public, the government and the international community alike. As a result significant improvements were made to the disaster management policy framework, as well as changes to systems and structures to incorporate an improved disaster management focus. This involved the upgrade of the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) throughout China to monitor and better control the health consequences particularly of infectious disease outbreaks. However, as can be seen in the Southern China Snow Storm and Wenchuan Earthquake in 2008, there remains a lack of integrated disaster management and efficient medical rescue, which has been costly in terms of economics and health for China. In the context of a very large and complex country, there is a need to better understand whether these changes have resulted in effective management of the health impacts of such incidents. To date, the health consequences of disasters, particularly in China, have not been a major focus of study. The main aim of this study is to analyse and evaluate disaster health management policy in China and in particular, its ability to effectively manage the health consequences of disasters. Flood has been selected for this study as it is a common and significant disaster type in China and throughout the world. This information will then be used to guide conceptual understanding of the health consequences of floods. A secondary aim of the study is to compare disaster health management in China and Australia as these countries differ in their length of experience in having a formalised policy response. The final aim of the study is to determine the extent to which Walt and Gilson’s (1994) model of policy explains how disaster management policy in China was developed and implemented after SARS in 2003 to the present day. This study has utilised a case study methodology. A document analysis and literature search of Chinese and English sources was undertaken to analyse and produce a chronology of disaster health management policy in China. Additionally, three detailed case studies of flood health management in China were undertaken along with three case studies in Australia in order to examine the policy response and any health consequences stemming from the floods. A total of 30 key international disaster health management experts were surveyed to identify fundamental elements and principles of a successful policy framework for disaster health management. Key policy ingredients were identified from the literature, the case-studies and the survey of experts. Walt and Gilson (1994)’s policy model that focuses on the actors, content, context and process of policy was found to be a useful model for analysing disaster health management policy development and implementation in China. This thesis is divided into four parts. Part 1 is a brief overview of the issues and context to set the scene. Part 2 examines the conceptual and operational context including the international literature, government documents and the operational environment for disaster health management in China. Part 3 examines primary sources of information to inform the analysis. This involves two key studies: • A comparative analysis of the management of floods in China and Australia • A survey of international experts in the field of disaster management so as to inform the evaluation of the policy framework in existence in China and the criteria upon which the expression of that policy could be evaluated Part 4 describes the key outcomes of this research which include: • A conceptual framework for describing the health consequences of floods • A conceptual framework for disaster health management • An evaluation of the disaster health management policy and its implementation in China. The research outcomes clearly identified that the most significant improvements are to be derived from improvements in the generic management of disasters, rather than the health aspects alone. Thus, the key findings and recommendations tend to focus on generic issues. The key findings of this research include the following: • The health consequences of floods may be described in terms of time as ‘immediate’, ‘medium term’ and ‘long term’ and also in relation to causation as ‘direct’ and ‘indirect’ consequences of the flood. These two aspects form a matrix which in turn guides management responses. • Disaster health management in China requires a more comprehensive response throughout the cycle of prevention, preparedness, response and recovery but it also requires a more concentrated effort on policy implementation to ensure the translation of the policy framework into effective incident management. • The policy framework in China is largely of international standard with a sound legislative base. In addition the development of the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention has provided the basis for a systematic approach to health consequence management. However, the key weaknesses in the current system include: o The lack of a key central structure to provide the infrastructure with vital support for policy development, implementation and evaluation. o The lack of well-prepared local response teams similar to local government based volunteer groups in Australia. • The system lacks structures to coordinate government action at the local level. The result of this is a poorly coordinated local response and lack of clarity regarding the point at which escalation of the response to higher levels of government is advisable. These result in higher levels of risk and negative health impacts. The key recommendations arising from this study are: 1. Disaster health management policy in China should be enhanced by incorporating disaster management considerations into policy development, and by requiring a disaster management risk analysis and disaster management impact statement for development proposals. 2. China should transform existing organizations to establish a central organisation similar to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) in the USA or the Emergency Management Australia (EMA) in Australia. This organization would be responsible for leading nationwide preparedness through planning, standards development, education and incident evaluation and to provide operational support to the national and local government bodies in the event of a major incident. 3. China should review national and local plans to reflect consistency in planning, and to emphasize the advantages of the integrated planning process. 4. Enhance community resilience through community education and the development of a local volunteer organization. China should develop a national strategy which sets direction and standards in regard to education and training, and requires system testing through exercises. Other initiatives may include the development of a local volunteer capability with appropriate training to assist professional response agencies such as police and fire services in a major incident. An existing organisation such as the Communist Party may be an appropriate structure to provide this response in a cost effective manner. 5. Continue development of professional emergency services, particularly ambulance, to ensure an effective infrastructure is in place to support the emergency response in disasters. 6. Funding for disaster health management should be enhanced, not only from government, but also from other sources such as donations and insurance. It is necessary to provide a more transparent mechanism to ensure the funding is disseminated according to the needs of the people affected. 7. Emphasis should be placed on prevention and preparedness, especially on effective disaster warnings. 8. China should develop local disaster health management infrastructure utilising existing resources wherever possible. Strategies for enhancing local infrastructure could include the identification of local resources (including military resources) which could be made available to support disaster responses. It should develop operational procedures to access those resources. Implementation of these recommendations should better position China to reduce the significant health consequences experienced each year from major incidents such as floods and to provide an increased level of confidence to the community about the country’s capacity to manage such events.
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The QUT Team developed an idea for a new residential housing typology that is appropriate for sites where the best views are in the opposing direction to the preferable climatic orientation. The interlocking configuration creates a double height external living space in every apartment, creating further opportunities for cross ventilation and natural daylight. Unlike conventional double loaded housing typologies, the interlocking configuration only requires a continuous public circulation corridor every second level. The cores that service this corridor are separated to either end of the tower and open areas. The configuration of the interlocking apartments creates an interesting composition of solid and void when viewed externally. This undulating facade petternation assists in articulating the large building mass. The project was evaluated by independent consultants and found to be cost effective, and at the same time delivering energy efficient high density liveability. The project was presented to a meeting of the Australian Council on Tall Buildings seminar on 15 September 2010.
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An interactive installation with full body interface, digital projection, multi-touch sensitive screen surfaces, interactive 3D gaming software, motorised dioramas, 4.1 spatial sound & new furniture forms - investigating the cultural dimensions of sustainability through the lens of 'time'. “Time is change, time is finitude. Humans are a finite species. Every decision we make today brings that end closer, or alternatively pushes it further away. Nothing can be neutral”. Tony Fry DETAILS: Finitude (Mallee:Time) is a major new media/sculptural hybrid work premiered in 2011 in version 1 at the Ka-rama Motel for the Mildura Palimpsest #8 ('Collaborators and Saboteurs'). Each participant/viewer lies comfortably on their back on the double bed of Room 22. Directly above them, supported by a wooden structure, not unlike a house frame, is a semi-transparent Perspex screen that displays projected 3D imagery and is simultaneously sensitive to the lightest of finger touches. Depending upon the ever changing qualities of the projected image on this screen the participant can see through its surface to a series of physical dioramas suspended above, lit by subtle LED spotlighting. This diorama consists of a slowly rotating series of physical environments, which also include several animatronic components, allowing the realtime composition of whimsical ‘landscapes’ of both 'real' and 'virtual' media. Through subtle, non-didactic touch-sensitive interactivity the participant then has influence over both the 3D graphic imagery, the physical movements of the diorama and the 4.1 immersive soundscape, creating an uncanny blend of physical and virtual media. Five speakers positioned around the room deliver a rich interactive soundscape that responds both audibly and physically to interactions. VERSION 1, CONTEXT/THEORY: Finitude (Mallee: Time) is Version 1 of a series of presentations during 2012-14. This version has been inspired through a series of recent visits and residencies in the SW Victoria Mallee country. Further drawing on recent writings by post colonial author Paul Carter, the work is envisaged as an evolving ‘personal topography’ of place-discovery. By contrasting and melding readily available generalisations of the Mallee regions’ rational surfaces, climatic maps and ecological systems with what Carter calls “a fine capillary system of interconnected words, places, memories and sensations” generated through my own idiosyncratic research processes, Finitude (Mallee Time) invokes a “dark writing” of place through outside eyes - an approach that avoids concentration upon what 'everyone else knows', to instead imagine and develop a sense how things might be. This basis in re-imagining and re-invention becomes the vehicle for the work’s more fundamental intention - as a meditative re-imagination of 'time' (and region) as finite resources: Towards this end, every object, process and idea in the work is re-thought as having its own ‘time component’ or ‘residue’ that becomes deposited into our 'collective future'. Thought this way Finitude (Mallee Time) suggests the poverty of predominant images of time as ‘mechanism’ to instead envisage time as a plastic cyclical medium that we can each choose to ‘give to’ or ‘take away from’ our future. Put another way - time has become finitude.
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Failure of buried pipes due to reactive soil movement (e.g. shrinking/swelling) is a common problem for water and gas pipe networks in Australia and the world. Soil movement is closely related to seasonal climatic change, and particularly to the moisture content of soil. Although some research has been carried out to understand the effect of freezing and thawing of soils and temperature effects in colder climates, very limited research has been undertaken to examine the possible failure mechanisms of pipes buried in reactive soils. This study reports the responses of a 2 m long polyethylene pipe buried in reactive clay in a box under laboratory conditions. The soil and pipe movements were measured as the soil was wetted from the bottom of the box. It was observed that the pipe underwent substantial deformation as the soil swelled with increase of the moisture content. The results are explained with a simplified numerical analysis.
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Global warming is entailing new climatic conditions for the built environment. Such a warming climate will affect both the performance of existing building stock and the design of new buildings. In this article, the knowledge of global warming and climate change is first introduced. The cycling interaction between global warming and buildings is then presented. The impact of global warming on building energy use and thermal performance is also assessed. Finally, the potential mitigation and adaptation strategies to the global warming are discussed.
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Local climate is a critical element in the design of buildings. In this paper, ten years of historical weather data in Australia's all eight capital cities are analyzed to characterize the variation profiles of climatic variables. The method of descriptive statistics is employed. Either the pattern of cumulative distribution and/or the profile of percentage distribution are used to graphically illustrate the similarity and difference between different study locations. It is found that although the weather variables vary with different locations, except for the extreme parts, there is often a good, nearly linear relation between weather variable and its cumulative percentage for the majority of middle part. The implication of these extreme parts and the slopes of the middle parts on building design is also discussed.
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Brisbane writers and writing are increasingly represented as important to the city’s identity as a site of urban cool, at least in marketing and public relations paradigms. It is therefore remarkable that recent Brisbane fiction clings strongly to a particular relationship to the climatic and built environment that is often located in the past and which seemingly turns away, or at least elides, the ‘new’ technologically-driven Brisbane. Literary Brisbane is often depicted in the context of nostalgia for the Brisbane that once was—a tropical, timbered, luxuriant city in which sex is associated with heat, and, in particular, sweat. In this writing sweat can produced by adrenaline or heat, but in particular, in Brisbane novels, it is the sweat of sex that characterises the literary city. Given that Brisbane is in fact a subtropical city, it is interesting that metaphors of a tropical climate and vegetation occur so frequently in Brisbane stories (and narratives set in other parts of the state) that writer Thea Astley was prompted at one point to remark that Queensland writing was in danger of developing into a tropical cliché.
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In phylogenetics, the unrooted model of phylogeny and the strict molecular clock model are two extremes of a continuum. Despite their dominance in phylogenetic inference, it is evident that both are biologically unrealistic and that the real evolutionary process lies between these two extremes. Fortunately, intermediate models employing relaxed molecular clocks have been described. These models open the gate to a new field of “relaxed phylogenetics.” Here we introduce a new approach to performing relaxed phylogenetic analysis. We describe how it can be used to estimate phylogenies and divergence times in the face of uncertainty in evolutionary rates and calibration times. Our approach also provides a means for measuring the clocklikeness of datasets and comparing this measure between different genes and phylogenies. We find no significant rate autocorrelation among branches in three large datasets, suggesting that autocorrelated models are not necessarily suitable for these data. In addition, we place these datasets on the continuum of clocklikeness between a strict molecular clock and the alternative unrooted extreme. Finally, we present analyses of 102 bacterial, 106 yeast, 61 plant, 99 metazoan, and 500 primate alignments. From these we conclude that our method is phylogenetically more accurate and precise than the traditional unrooted model while adding the ability to infer a timescale to evolution.
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The new model of North Island Cenozoic palaeogeography developed by Kamp et al. has a range of important implications for the evolution of New Zealand terrestrial taxa over the past 30 Ma. Key aspects include the prolonged isolation of the biota on the North Island landmass from the larger and more diverse greater South Island, and the founding of North Island taxa from the potentially unusual ecosystem of a small island around Northland. The prolonged period of isolation is expected to have generated deep phylogenetic splits within taxa present on both islands, and an important current aim should be to identify such signals in surviving endemics to start building a picture of the historical phylogeography, and inferred ecology of both islands through the Cenozoic. Given the potential differences in founding terrestrial species and climatic conditions, it seems likely that the ecology may have been very diferent between the North and South Islands. New genetic data from the 10 or so species of extinct moa suggest that the radiation of moa was much more recent than previously suggested, and reveals a complex pattern that is inferred to result from the interplay of the Cenozoic biogeography, marine barriers, and glacial cycles.
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The temporal variations in CO2, CH4 and N2O fluxes were measured over two consecutive years from February 2007 to March 2009 from a subtropical rainforest in south-eastern Queensland, Australia, using an automated sampling system. A concurrent study using an additional 30 manual chambers examined the spatial variability of emissions distributed across three nearby remnant rainforest sites with similar vegetation and climatic conditions. Interannual variation in fluxes of all gases over the 2 years was minimal, despite large discrepancies in rainfall, whereas a pronounced seasonal variation could only be observed for CO2 fluxes. High infiltration, drainage and subsequent high soil aeration under the rainforest limited N2O loss while promoting substantial CH4 uptake. The average annual N2O loss of 0.5 ± 0.1 kg N2O-N ha−1 over the 2-year measurement period was at the lower end of reported fluxes from rainforest soils. The rainforest soil functioned as a sink for atmospheric CH4 throughout the entire 2-year period, despite periods of substantial rainfall. A clear linear correlation between soil moisture and CH4 uptake was found. Rates of uptake ranged from greater than 15 g CH4-C ha−1 day−1 during extended dry periods to less than 2–5 g CH4-C ha−1 day−1 when soil water content was high. The calculated annual CH4 uptake at the site was 3.65 kg CH4-C ha−1 yr−1. This is amongst the highest reported for rainforest systems, reiterating the ability of aerated subtropical rainforests to act as substantial sinks of CH4. The spatial study showed N2O fluxes almost eight times higher, and CH4 uptake reduced by over one-third, as clay content of the rainforest soil increased from 12% to more than 23%. This demonstrates that for some rainforest ecosystems, soil texture and related water infiltration and drainage capacity constraints may play a more important role in controlling fluxes than either vegetation or seasonal variability
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The eastern Australian rainforests have experienced several cycles of range contraction and expansion since the late Miocene that are closely correlated with global glaciation events. Together with ongoing aridification of the continent, this has resulted in current distributions of native closed forest that are highly fragmented along the east coast. Several closed forest endemic taxa exhibit patterns of population genetic structure that are congruent with historical isolation of populations in discrete refugia and reflect evolutionary histories dramatically affected by vicariance. Currently, limited data are available regarding the impact of these past climatic fluctuations on freshwater invertebrate taxa. The non-biting midge species Echinocladius martini Cranston is distributed along the east coast and inhabits predominantly montane streams in closed forest habitat. Phylogeographic structure in E. martini was resolved here at a continental scale by incorporating data from a previous pilot study and expanding the sampling design to encompass populations in the Wet Tropics of north-eastern Queensland, south-east Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria. Patterns of phylogeographic structure revealed several deeply divergent mitochondrial lineages from central and south-eastern Australia that were previously unrecognised and were geographically endemic to closed forest refugia. Estimated divergence times were congruent with late Miocene onset of rainforest contractions across the east coast of Australia. This suggested that dispersal and gene flow among E. martini populations isolated in refugia has been highly restricted historically. Moreover, these data imply, in contrast to existing preconceptions about freshwater invertebrates, that this taxon may be acutely susceptible to habitat fragmentation.
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Barmah Forest Virus (BFV) disease is the most rapidly emerging mosquito-borne disease in Australia. BFV transmission depends on factors such as climate, virus, vector and the human population. However, the impact of climatic and social factors on BFV remains to be determined. This paper provided an overview of current research and discusses the future research directions on the BFV transmission. These research findings could be regarded as an impetus towards BFV prevention and control strategies.
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Background Many previous studies have found seasonal patterns in birth outcomes, but with little agreement about which season poses the highest risk. Some of the heterogeneity between studies may be explained by a previously unknown bias. The bias occurs in retrospective cohorts which include all births occurring within a fixed start and end date, which means shorter pregnancies are missed at the start of the study, and longer pregnancies are missed at the end. Our objective was to show the potential size of this bias and how to avoid it. Methods To demonstrate the bias we simulated a retrospective birth cohort with no seasonal pattern in gestation and used a range of cohort end dates. As a real example, we used a cohort of 114,063 singleton births in Brisbane between 1 July 2005 and 30 June 2009 and examined the bias when estimating changes in gestation length associated with season (using month of conception) and a seasonal exposure (temperature). We used survival analyses with temperature as a time-dependent variable. Results We found strong artificial seasonal patterns in gestation length by month of conception, which depended on the end date of the study. The bias was avoided when the day and month of the start date was just before the day and month of the end date (regardless of year), so that the longer gestations at the start of the study were balanced by the shorter gestations at the end. After removing the fixed cohort bias there was a noticeable change in the effect of temperature on gestation length. The adjusted hazard ratios were flatter at the extremes of temperature but steeper between 15 and 25°C. Conclusions Studies using retrospective birth cohorts should account for the fixed cohort bias by removing selected births to get unbiased estimates of seasonal health effects.