Drink driving among Indigenous Australians in outer regional and remote communities and development of a drink driving program: A summary of findings and recommendations

Drink driving is a leading cause of criminal justice system contact for Indigenous Australians. National and state strategies recommend Indigenous road safety initiatives are warranted. However, there is sparse evidence to inform drink driving-related preventive and treatment measures. Using quantitative and qualitative methods, the study examines the profile of Queensland’s Indigenous drink drivers using court convictions and identifies the contributing psycho-social, cultural and contextual factors through qualitative interviews.

'I wonder what you know...': Teachers designing requests for factual information

Optimizing the quality of early childhood education (ECE) is an international policy priority. Teacher-child interactions have been identified as the strongest indicator of quality and most potent predictor of child outcomes. This paper presents ethnomethodological and conversation analysis of an interaction between an early childhood educator with two children as they engage with each other, while performing a Web search. Analyses shows that question design can elicit qualitatively different responses with regard to sustained interactions. Understanding the design of teacher questions has pedagogic implications for the work of the teacher and for the broader quality agenda in early childhood education.

Development of analytical methods for the separation of plutonium, americium, curium and neptunium from environmental samples

In this work, separation methods have been developed for the analysis of anthropogenic transuranium elements plutonium, americium, curium and neptunium from environmental samples contaminated by global nuclear weapons testing and the Chernobyl accident. The analytical methods utilized in this study are based on extraction chromatography. Highly varying atmospheric plutonium isotope concentrations and activity ratios were found at both Kurchatov (Kazakhstan), near the former Semipalatinsk test site, and Sodankylä (Finland). The origin of plutonium is almost impossible to identify at Kurchatov, since hundreds of nuclear tests were performed at the Semipalatinsk test site. In Sodankylä, plutonium in the surface air originated from nuclear weapons testing, conducted mostly by USSR and USA before the sampling year 1963. The variation in americium, curium and neptunium concentrations was great as well in peat samples collected in southern and central Finland in 1986 immediately after the Chernobyl accident. The main source of transuranium contamination in peats was from global nuclear test fallout, although there are wide regional differences in the fraction of Chernobyl-originated activity (of the total activity) for americium, curium and neptunium.

Chemical and source characterisation of size-segregated urban air particulate matter

Recent epidemiological studies have shown a consistent association of the mass concentration of urban air thoracic (PM10) and fine (PM2.5) particles with mortality and morbidity among cardiorespiratory patients. However, the chemical characteristics of different particulate size ranges and the biological mechanisms responsible for these adverse health effects are not well known. The principal aims of this thesis were to validate a high volume cascade impactor (HVCI) for the collection of particulate matter for physicochemical and toxicological studies, and to make an in-depth chemical and source characterisation of samples collected during different pollution situations. The particulate samples were collected with the HVCI, virtual impactors and a Berner low pressure impactor in six European cities: Helsinki, Duisburg, Prague, Amsterdam, Barcelona and Athens. The samples were analysed for particle mass, common ions, total and water-soluble elements as well as elemental and organic carbon. Laboratory calibration and field comparisons indicated that the HVCI can provide a unique large capacity, high efficiency sampling of size-segregated aerosol particles. The cutoff sizes of the recommended HVCI configuration were 2.4, 0.9 and 0.2 μm. The HVCI mass concentrations were in a good agreement with the reference methods, but the chemical composition of especially the fine particulate samples showed some differences. This implies that the chemical characterization of the exposure variable in toxicological studies needs to be done from the same HVCI samples as used in cell and animal studies. The data from parallel, low volume reference samplers provide valuable additional information for chemical mass closure and source assessment. The major components of PM2.5 in the virtual impactor samples were carbonaceous compounds, secondary inorganic ions and sea salt, whereas those of coarse particles (PM2.5-10) were soil-derived compounds, carbonaceous compounds, sea salt and nitrate. The major and minor components together accounted for 77-106% and 77-96% of the gravimetrically-measured masses of fine and coarse particles, respectively. Relatively large differences between sampling campaigns were observed in the organic carbon content of the PM2.5 samples as well as the mineral composition of the PM2.5-10 samples. A source assessment based on chemical tracers suggested clear differences in the dominant sources (e.g. traffic, residential heating with solid fuels, metal industry plants, regional or long-range transport) between the sampling campaigns. In summary, the field campaigns exhibited different profiles with regard to particulate sources, size distribution and chemical composition, thus, providing a highly useful setup for toxicological studies on the size-segregated HVCI samples.

Canada Park Official Award Commemorative Medal

Obverse: Canada state emblem, a maple leaf, within the leaf there is a group of trees. Reverse: The area abounds in tree tops, all of them bending toward the center of the medal.

Challenges in developing a new regional road safety strategy for ASEAN

In 2011, more than 75,000 people died in road crashes in the ten member countries of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) and many times this number sustained long term injuries. Improving road safety outcomes in ASEAN is not only important for the welfare and economic benefit of these countries, but given that a significant proportion of the world's population lives in ASEAN, it will strongly influence whether the aims of the United Nations Decade of Action for Road Safety and the Sustainable Development Goals are reached. Following the ASEAN Senior Transport Officials Meeting in May 2011, the Secretariat requested the Asian Development Bank (ADB) to provide assistance to improve road safety in ASEAN. In response, ADB, funded by the Japan Fund for Poverty Reduction, has funded a package of action to improve road safety in ASEAN, including the development of a new regional road safety strategy. The diversity of the member nations of ASEAN poses significant challenges for the development of the strategy. For example, the road fatality rates per 100,000 population in Malaysia and Thailand are about 5 times greater than in Singapore. In addition, the importance of particular road safety issues varies across the ASEAN countries and for countries which are undergoing rapid motorization, the order of importance may change over the life of the strategy. The development of the ASEAN Regional Road Safety Strategy has adopted the five pillars of road safety of the UN Decade of Action but focused on those aspects which are most relevant at the regional level and where a regional approach will support and facilitate actions taken by individual countries. A draft ASEAN Regional Road Safety Strategy document has been prepared and consultation will further refine its directions and contents. The paper will describe the processes undertaken to identify issues and solutions, the measurement of road safety maturity and behavioural risk factors, and the overall structure and themes of the strategy.

Five tricks retailers will use to make you shop this Christmas

Australian shoppers are predicted to spend nearly A$47 billion this Christmas. But retailers have to work harder and harder to get shoppers to pull out their wallets. Here are five strategies retailers will be using to get us to part with our hard earned coin.

Predictive modelling to aid the regional-scale management of a vertebrate pest

Extensive resources are allocated to managing vertebrate pests, yet spatial understanding of pest threats, and how they respond to management, is limited at the regional scale where much decision-making is undertaken. We provide regional-scale spatial models and management guidance for European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) in a 260,791 km(2) region in Australia by determining habitat suitability, habitat susceptibility and the effects of the primary rabbit management options (barrier fence, shooting and baiting and warren ripping) or changing predation or disease control levels. A participatory modelling approach was used to develop a Bayesian network which captured the main drivers of suitability and spread, which in turn was linked spatially to develop high resolution risk maps. Policy-makers, rabbit managers and technical experts were responsible for defining the questions the model needed to address, and for subsequently developing and parameterising the model. Habitat suitability was determined by conditions required for warren-building and by above-ground requirements, such as food and harbour, and habitat susceptibility by the distance from current distributions, habitat suitability, and the costs of traversing habitats of different quality. At least one-third of the region had a high probability of being highly suitable (support high rabbit densities), with the model supported by validation. Habitat susceptibility was largely restricted by the current known rabbit distribution. Warren ripping was the most effective control option as warrens were considered essential for rabbit persistence. The anticipated increase in disease resistance was predicted to increase the probability of moderately suitable habitat becoming highly suitable, but not increase the at-risk area. We demonstrate that it is possible to build spatial models to guide regional-level management of vertebrate pests which use the best available knowledge and capture fine spatial-scale processes.

Stock assessment of the Queensland east coast common coral trout (Plectropomus leopardus) fishery

Common coral trout Plectropomus leopardus is an iconic fish of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) and is the most important fish for the commercial fishery there. Most of the catch is exported live to Asia. This stock assessment was undertaken in response to falls in catch sizes and catch rates in recent years, in order to gauge the status of the stock. It is the first stock assessment ever conducted of coral trout on the GBR, and brings together a multitude of different data sources for the first time. The GBR is very large and was divided into a regional structure based on the Bioregions defined by expert committees appointed by the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority (GBRMPA) as part of the 2004 rezoning of the GBR. The regional structure consists of six Regions, from the Far Northern Region in the north to the Swains and Capricorn–Bunker Regions in the south. Regions also closely follow the boundaries between Bioregions. Two of the northern Regions are split into Subregions on the basis of potential changes in fishing intensity between the Subregions; there are nine Subregions altogether, which include four Regions that are not split. Bioregions are split into Subbioregions along the Subregion boundaries. Finally, each Subbioregion is split into a “blue” population which is open to fishing and a “green” population which is closed to fishing. The fishery is unusual in that catch rates as an indicator of abundance of coral trout are heavily influenced by tropical cyclones. After a major cyclone, catch rates fall for two to three years, and rebound after that. This effect is well correlated with the times of occurrence of cyclones, and usually occurs in the same month that the cyclone strikes. However, statistical analyses correlating catch rates with cyclone wind energy did not provide significantly different catch rate trends. Alternative indicators of cyclone strength may explain more of the catch rate decline, and future work should investigate this. Another feature of catch rates is the phenomenon of social learning in coral trout populations, whereby when a population of coral trout is fished, individuals quickly learn not to take bait. Then the catch rate falls sharply even when the population size is still high. The social learning may take place by fish directly observing their fellows being hooked, or perhaps heeding a chemo-sensory cue emitted by fish that are hooked. As part of the assessment, analysis of data from replenishment closures of Boult Reef in the Capricorn–Bunker Region (closed 1983–86) and Bramble Reef in the Townsville Subregion (closed 1992–95) estimated a strong social learning effect. A major data source for the stock assessment was the large collection of underwater visual survey (UVS) data collected by divers who counted the coral trout that they sighted. This allowed estimation of the density of coral trout in the different Bioregions (expressed as a number of fish per hectare). Combined with mapping data of all the 3000 or so reefs making up the GBR, the UVS results provided direct estimates of the population size in each Subbioregion. A regional population dynamic model was developed to account for the intricacies of coral trout population dynamics and catch rates. Because the statistical analysis of catch rates did not attribute much of the decline to tropical cyclones, (and thereby implied “real” declines in biomass), and because in contrast the UVS data indicate relatively stable population sizes, model outputs were unduly influenced by the unlikely hypothesis that falling catch rates are real. The alternative hypothesis that UVS data are closer to the mark and declining catch rates are an artefact of spurious (e.g., cyclone impact) effects is much more probable. Judging by the population size estimates provided by the UVS data, there is no biological problem with the status of coral trout stocks. The estimate of the total number of Plectropomus leopardus on blue zones on the GBR in the mid-1980s (the time of the major UVS series) was 5.34 million legal-sized fish, or about 8400 t exploitable biomass, with an 2 additional 3350 t in green zones (using the current zoning which was introduced on 1 July 2004). For the offshore regions favoured by commercial fishers, the figure was about 4.90 million legal-sized fish in blue zones, or about 7700 t exploitable biomass. There is, however, an economic problem, as indicated by relatively low catch rates and anecdotal information provided by commercial fishers. The costs of fishing the GBR by hook and line (the only method compatible with the GBR’s high conservation status) are high, and commercial fishers are unable to operate profitably when catch rates are depressed (e.g., from a tropical cyclone). The economic problem is compounded by the effect of social learning in coral trout, whereby catch rates fall rapidly if fishers keep returning to the same fishing locations. In response, commercial fishers tend to spread out over the GBR, including the Far Northern and Swains Regions which are far from port and incur higher travel costs. The economic problem provides some logic to a reduction in the TACC. Such a reduction during good times, such as when the fishery is rebounding after a major tropical cyclone, could provide a net benefit to the fishery, as it would provide a margin of stock safety and make the fishery more economically robust by providing higher catch rates during subsequent periods of depressed catches. During hard times when catch rates are low (e.g., shortly after a major tropical cyclone), a change to the TACC would have little effect as even a reduced TACC would not come close to being filled. Quota adjustments based on catch rates should take account of long-term trends in order to mitigate variability and cyclone effects in data.

Science, ICT and Mathematics Education in Rural and Regional Australia: The SiMERR National Survey

The SiMERR National Survey was one of the first priorities of the National Centre of Science, Information and Communication Technology and Mathematics Education for Rural and Regional Australia (SiMERR Australia), established at the University of New England in July 2004 through a federal government grant. With university based ‘hubs’ in each state and territory, SiMERR Australia aims to support rural and regional teachers, students and communities in improving educational outcomes in these subject areas. The purpose of the survey was to identify the key issues affecting these outcomes. The National Survey makes six substantial contributions to our understanding of issues in rural education. First, it focuses specifically on school science, ICT and mathematics education, rather than on education more generally. Second, it compares the different circumstances and needs of teachers across a nationally agreed geographical framework, and quantifies these differences. Third, it compares the circumstances and needs of teachers in schools with different proportions of Indigenous students. Fourth, it provides greater detail than previous studies on the specific needs of schools and teachers in these subject areas. Fifth, the analyses of teacher ‘needs’ have been controlled for the socio-economic background of school locations, resulting in findings that are more tightly associated with geographic location than with economic circumstances. Finally, most previous reports on rural education in Australia were based upon focus interviews, public submissions or secondary analyses of available data. In contrast, the National Survey has generated a sizable body of original quantitative and qualitative data.

Alueellinen imago ja identiteetti liikkeessä

Regions are considered to be in competition for investments, industries, inhabitants and skilled labour nationally as well as internationally. In the context of tightening competition, more and more attention has been paid to regional attractors. A positive image is an important attractor in regional competition. In Finland, many towns and regions have either implemented or are planning to implement various image-enhancing campaigns or other measures aimed at improving their image. The role of identity is very important in developing a regional image. Good regional image should be based on a strong regional identity and awareness. Related to this is the perception of one's own region as separate from others and the familiarity of the region. If a region has no place in the awareness of its residents or if the inhabitants do not identify with it, its very existence as a social construct can be questioned. This means that building the regional image, which in this context is seen as social constructivism, is extremely difficult if the degree of regional awareness and identification is low. On the other hand, regional identity is being built also by developing the regional image. In a way, regional discourses have become more marketing-oriented in that instead of trying to create a regional esprit de corps there is now more image-oriented speech aimed at striving to improve the attractivity to outsiders of the region. Even though the goal is to bring the region to the attention of non-residents, a measure of construction of regional identity for the local population is automatically effected at the same time. Regional image and identity are consequences of linguistic producing and understanding of a region. It means that both image and identity are seen as language-created social constructions. The regional image is created through various discourses, but also the construction of a regional identity as regional consciousness and identification is largely a linguistic process. Essential in this context is perceiving the region as a discursive project characterized by its representation as texts, images and symbols. The linguistic production of a region is not a neutral description of "reality", but a representation based on interpretations, experiences and different motivations. Production and perceiving vary in time, so regional image and identity are on the move. This research is driven by the ongoing change of the regional system. The municipal and service structure reform is in progress and the number of municipalities seems to be on the decrease. At the same time, European Union s regional policy and regionalism on the whole are changing the status of sub-regions. At municipal level the crucial question is how the municipal structure reform will affect regional identity. This study points out that strong sense of municipal identity is a source of opposition to changes in municipal structure, but on the other hand the deinstitutionalization of the old municipality in municipal merger does not in itself mean the weakening of municipal identity.

Spatial and temporal variability in midge (Nematocera) assemblages in shallow Finnish lakes (60−70 °N) : community-based modelling of past environmental change

Multi- and intralake datasets of fossil midge assemblages in surface sediments of small shallow lakes in Finland were studied to determine the most important environmental factors explaining trends in midge distribution and abundance. The aim was to develop palaeoenvironmental calibration models for the most important environmental variables for the purpose of reconstructing past environmental conditions. The developed models were applied to three high-resolution fossil midge stratigraphies from southern and eastern Finland to interpret environmental variability over the past 2000 years, with special focus on the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and recent anthropogenic changes. The midge-based results were compared with physical properties of the sediment, historical evidence and environmental reconstructions based on diatoms (Bacillariophyta), cladocerans (Crustacea: Cladocera) and tree rings. The results showed that the most important environmental factor controlling midge distribution and abundance along a latitudinal gradient in Finland was the mean July air temperature (TJul). However, when the dataset was environmentally screened to include only pristine lakes, water depth at the sampling site became more important. Furthermore, when the dataset was geographically scaled to southern Finland, hypolimnetic oxygen conditions became the dominant environmental factor. The results from an intralake dataset from eastern Finland showed that the most important environmental factors controlling midge distribution within a lake basin were river contribution, water depth and submerged vegetation patterns. In addition, the results of the intralake dataset showed that the fossil midge assemblages represent fauna that lived in close proximity to the sampling sites, thus enabling the exploration of within-lake gradients in midge assemblages. Importantly, this within-lake heterogeneity in midge assemblages may have effects on midge-based temperature estimations, because samples taken from the deepest point of a lake basin may infer considerably colder temperatures than expected, as shown by the present test results. Therefore, it is suggested here that the samples in fossil midge studies involving shallow boreal lakes should be taken from the sublittoral, where the assemblages are most representative of the whole lake fauna. Transfer functions between midge assemblages and the environmental forcing factors that were significantly related with the assemblages, including mean air TJul, water depth, hypolimnetic oxygen, stream flow and distance to littoral vegetation, were developed using weighted averaging (WA) and weighted averaging-partial least squares (WA-PLS) techniques, which outperformed all the other tested numerical approaches. Application of the models in downcore studies showed mostly consistent trends. Based on the present results, which agreed with previous studies and historical evidence, the Medieval Climate Anomaly between ca. 800 and 1300 AD in eastern Finland was characterized by warm temperature conditions and dry summers, but probably humid winters. The Little Ice Age (LIA) prevailed in southern Finland from ca. 1550 to 1850 AD, with the coldest conditions occurring at ca. 1700 AD, whereas in eastern Finland the cold conditions prevailed over a longer time period, from ca. 1300 until 1900 AD. The recent climatic warming was clearly represented in all of the temperature reconstructions. In the terms of long-term climatology, the present results provide support for the concept that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index has a positive correlation with winter precipitation and annual temperature and a negative correlation with summer precipitation in eastern Finland. In general, the results indicate a relatively warm climate with dry summers but snowy winters during the MCA and a cool climate with rainy summers and dry winters during the LIA. The results of the present reconstructions and the forthcoming applications of the models can be used in assessments of long-term environmental dynamics to refine the understanding of past environmental reference conditions and natural variability required by environmental scientists, ecologists and policy makers to make decisions concerning the presently occurring global, regional and local changes. The developed midge-based models for temperature, hypolimnetic oxygen, water depth, littoral vegetation shift and stream flow, presented in this thesis, are open for scientific use on request.

Beasts on Fields. Human-Wildlife Conflicts in Nature-Culture Borderlands

Human-wildlife conflicts are today an integral part of the rural development discourse. In this research, the main focus is on the spatial explanation which is not a very common approach in the reviewed literature. My research hypothesis is based on the assumption that human-wildlife conflicts occur when a wild animal crosses a perceived borderline between the nature and culture and enters into the realms of the other. The borderline between nature and culture marks a perceived division of spatial content in our senses of place. The animal subject that crosses this border becomes a subject out of place meaning that the animal is then spatially located in a space where it should not be or where it does not belong according to tradition, custom, rules, law, public opinion, prevailing discourse or some other criteria set by human beings. An appearance of a wild animal in a domesticated space brings an uncontrolled subject into that space where humans have previously commanded total control of all other natural elements. A wild animal out of place may also threaten the biosecurity of the place in question. I carried out a case study in the Liwale district in south-eastern Tanzania to test my hypothesis during June and July 2002. I also collected documents and carried out interviews in Dar es Salaam in 2003. I studied the human-wildlife conflicts in six rural villages, where a total of 183 persons participated in the village meetings. My research methods included semi-structured interviews, participatory mapping, questionnaire survey and Q- methodology. The rural communities in the Liwale district have a long-history of co-existing with wildlife and they still have traditional knowledge of wildlife management and hunting. Wildlife conservation through the establishment of game reserves during the colonial era has escalated human-wildlife conflicts in the Liwale district. This study shows that the villagers perceive some wild animals differently in their images of the African countryside than the district and regional level civil servants do. From the small scale subsistence farmers point of views, wild animals continue to challenge the separation of the wild (the forests) and the domestics spaces (the cultivated fields) by moving across the perceived borders in search of food and shelter. As a result, the farmers may loose their crops, livestock or even their own lives in the confrontations of wild animals. Human-wildlife conflicts in the Liwale district are manifold and cannot be explained simply on the basis of attitudes or perceived images of landscapes. However, the spatial explanation of these conflicts provides us some more understanding of why human-wildlife conflicts are so widely found across the world.

Forest inventory-based large-scale forest biomass and carbon budget assessment: new enhanced methods and use of remote sensing for verification

In recent years, concern has arisen over the effects of increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) in the earth's atmosphere due to the burning of fossil fuels. One way to mitigate increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change is carbon sequestration to forest vegeta-tion through photosynthesis. Comparable regional scale estimates for the carbon balance of forests are therefore needed for scientific and political purposes. The aim of the present dissertation was to improve methods for quantifying and verifying inventory-based carbon pool estimates of the boreal forests in the mineral soils. Ongoing forest inventories provide a data based on statistically sounded sampling for estimating the level of carbon stocks and stock changes, but improved modelling tools and comparison of methods are still needed. In this dissertation, the entire inventory-based large-scale forest carbon stock assessment method was presented together with some separate methods for enhancing and comparing it. The enhancement methods presented here include ways to quantify the biomass of understorey vegetation as well as to estimate the litter production of needles and branches. In addition, the optical remote sensing method illustrated in this dis-sertation can be used to compare with independent data. The forest inventory-based large-scale carbon stock assessment method demonstrated here provided reliable carbon estimates when compared with independent data. Future ac-tivity to improve the accuracy of this method could consist of reducing the uncertainties regarding belowground biomass and litter production as well as the soil compartment. The methods developed will serve the needs for UNFCCC reporting and the reporting under the Kyoto Protocol. This method is principally intended for analysts or planners interested in quantifying carbon over extensive forest areas.

Spatial variation of climate and the impact of disturbances on local climate and forest recovery in northern Finland

The structure and function of northern ecosystems are strongly influenced by climate change and variability and by human-induced disturbances. The projected global change is likely to have a pronounced effect on the distribution and productivity of different species, generating large changes in the equilibrium at the tree-line. In turn, movement of the tree-line and the redistribution of species produce feedback to both the local and the regional climate. This research was initiated with the objective of examining the influence of natural conditions on the small-scale spatial variation of climate in Finnish Lapland, and to study the interaction and feedback mechanisms in the climate-disturbances-vegetation system near the climatological border of boreal forest. The high (1 km) resolution spatial variation of climate parameters over northern Finland was determined by applying the Kriging interpolation method that takes into account the effect of external forcing variables, i.e., geographical coordinates, elevation, sea and lake coverage. Of all the natural factors shaping the climate, the geographical position, local topography and altitude proved to be the determining ones. Spatial analyses of temperature- and precipitation-derived parameters based on a 30-year dataset (1971-2000) provide a detailed description of the local climate. Maps of the mean, maximum and minimum temperatures, the frost-free period and the growing season indicate that the most favourable thermal conditions exist in the south-western part of Lapland, around large water bodies and in the Kemijoki basin, while the coldest regions are in highland and fell Lapland. The distribution of precipitation is predominantly longitudinally dependent but with the definite influence of local features. The impact of human-induced disturbances, i.e., forest fires, on local climate and its implication for forest recovery near the northern timberline was evaluated in the Tuntsa area of eastern Lapland, damaged by a widespread forest fire in 1960 and suffering repeatedly-failed vegetation recovery since that. Direct measurements of the local climate and simulated heat and water fluxes indicated the development of a more severe climate and physical conditions on the fire-disturbed site. Removal of the original, predominantly Norway spruce and downy birch vegetation and its substitution by tundra vegetation has generated increased wind velocity and reduced snow accumulation, associated with a large variation in soil temperature and moisture and deep soil frost. The changed structural parameters of the canopy have determined changes in energy fluxes by reducing the latter over the tundra vegetation. The altered surface and soil conditions, as well as the evolved severe local climate, have negatively affected seedling growth and survival, leading to more unfavourable conditions for the reproduction of boreal vegetation and thereby causing deviations in the regional position of the timberline. However it should be noted that other factors, such as an inadequate seed source or seedbed, the poor quality of the soil and the intensive logging of damaged trees could also exacerbate the poor tree regeneration. In spite of the failed forest recovery at Tunsta, the position and composition of the timberline and tree-line in Finnish Lapland may also benefit from present and future changes in climate. The already-observed and the projected increase in temperature, the prolonged growing season, as well as changes in the precipitation regime foster tree growth and new regeneration, resulting in an advance of the timberline and tree-line northward and upward. This shift in the distribution of vegetation might be decelerated or even halted by local topoclimatic conditions and by the expected increase in the frequency of disturbances.