Can genetic algorithms explain experimental anomalies? An application to common property resources

It is common to find in experimental data persistent oscillations in the aggregate outcomes and high levels of heterogeneity in individual behavior. Furthermore, it is not unusual to find significant deviations from aggregate Nash equilibrium predictions. In this paper, we employ an evolutionary model with boundedly rational agents to explain these findings. We use data from common property resource experiments (Casari and Plott, 2003). Instead of positing individual-specific utility functions, we model decision makers as selfish and identical. Agent interaction is simulated using an individual learning genetic algorithm, where agents have constraints in their working memory, a limited ability to maximize, and experiment with new strategies. We show that the model replicates most of the patterns that can be found in common property resource experiments.

The provision of quality in a bilateral search market

We accomplish two goals. First, we provide a non-cooperative foundation for the use of the Nash bargaining solution in search markets. This finding should help to close the rift between the search and the matching-and-bargaining literature. Second, we establish that the diversity of quality offered (at an increasing price-quality ratio) in a decentralized market is an equilibrium phenomenon - even in the limit as search frictions disappear.

Search and bargaining in large markets with homogeneous traders

We study pair-wise decentralized trade in dynamic markets with homogeneous, non-atomic, buyers and sellers that wish to exchange one unit. Pairs of traders are randomly matched and bargaining a price under rules that offer the freedom to quit the match at any time. Market equilbria, prices and trades over time, are characterized. The asymptotic behavior of prices and trades as frictions (search costs and impatience) vanish, and the conditions for (non) convergence to walrasian prices are explored. As a side product of independent interest, we present a self-contained theory of non-cooperative bargaining with two-sided, time-varying, outside options.

Two algorithms to find a power integral basis

"Vegeu el resum a l'inici del fitxer adjunt."

Studies in search of a suitable experimental insect model for xenodiagnosis of hosts with Chagas' disease. 1 - Comparative xenodiagnosis with nine triatomine species of animals with acute infections by Trypanosoma cruzi

In search of a suitable vector species for xenodiagnosis of humans and animals with chronic Chagas' disease we first investigated the reactions of different vector species to acute infection with Trypanosoma cruzi. Vector species utilized in this study were: Triatoma infestans, Rhodnius prolixus and Triatoma dimidiata, all well adapted to human habitats; Triatoma rubrovaria and Rhodnius neglectus both considered totally wild species; Panstrongylus megistus, Triatoma sordida, Triatoma pseudomaculata and Triatoma brasiliensis, all essentially sylvatic but some with domiciliary tendencies and others restricted to peridomestic biotopes with incipient colonization of human houses after successful eradication of T. infestans. Results summarized in Table IV suggest the following order of infectivity among the 9 studied vector species: P. megistus with 97.8% of infected bugs, T. rubrovaria with 95% of positive bugs a close second followed by T. Pseudomaculata with 94.3% and R. neglectus with 93.8% of infected bugs, almost identical thirds. R. prolixus, T. infestans and T. dimidiata exhibited low infection rates of 53.1%, 51.6% and 38.2% respectively, coupled with sharp decreases occuring with aging of infection (Fig. 1). The situation was intermediate in T. brasiliensis and T. sordida infection rates being 76.9% and 80% respectively. Results also point to the existence of a close correlation between prevalence and intensity of infection in that, species with high infection rates ranging from 93.8% to 97.8% exhibited relatively large proportions of insects (27.3% - 33.5%) harbouring very dense populations of T. cruzi. In species with low infection rates ranging from 38.2% to 53.1% the proportion of bugs demonstrating comparable parasite densities was at most 6%. No differences attributable to blood-meal size or to greater susceptibility of indigenous vector species to parasites of their own geographical area, as suggested in earlier...

The dynamics of interfaces: Seven authors in search of encounters across levels of description of an event involving a mother, father, and baby

The interfaces between the intrapsychic, interactional, and intergenerational domains are a new frontier. As a pilot, we exposed ourselves to a complex but controllable situation as viewed by people whose main interest is in one of the three interfaces; we also fully integrated the subjects in the team, to learn about their subjective perspectives and to provide them with an enriching experience. We started with a brief "triadification" sequence (i.e., moving from a "two plus one" to a "three together" family organization). Considering this sequence as representing at a micro level many larger family transitions, we proceeded with a microanalytic interview, a psychodynamic investigation, and a family interview. As expected, larger patterns of correspondences are emerging. Central questions under debate are: What are the most appropriate units at each level of description and what are their articulations between these levels? What is the status of "triadification"? Les interfaces entre les domaines intrapsychiques, interactionnels et intergénérationnels représentent une nouvelle frontiére. A titre exploratoire, nous nous sommes exposés à une situation complexe mais contrǒlable ainsi que le voient ceux dont I'intérět principal se porte sur l'une de ces trois interfaces. Nous avons aussi entièrement intégré les sujets dans l'équipe, de facon à comprendre leur perspective subjective et à leur offrir une expérience enrichissante. Nous avons commencé avec une brève séquence de "triadification," c'est-à-dire passer d'une organisation familiale "deux plus un" à Ltne organisation familiale "trois (add sentenc)ensemble." Considérant cette séquence comme representative à un niveau microscopique de transitions familiales bien plus larges, nous avons procedé à l'entretien microanalytique, à une enquěte psychodynamique et à un entretien familial. Comme prévu, de grands patterns de correspondances émergent. Les questions essentielles sur lesquelles portent le débat sont: quelles les unités les plus appropiées à chaque niveau de description et quelles sont les articulations entre ces niveaux? Quel est le statut de la "triadification"?

In Search of a theory of debt management

A growing literature integrates theories of debt management into models of optimal fiscal policy. One promising theory argues that the composition of government debt should be chosen so that fluctuations in the market value of debt offset changes in expected future deficits. This complete market approach to debt management is valid even when the government only issues non-contingent bonds. A number of authors conclude from this approach that governments should issue long term debt and invest in short term assets. We argue that the conclusions of this approach are too fragile to serve as a basis for policy recommendations. This is because bonds at different maturities have highly correlated returns, causing the determination of the optimal portfolio to be ill-conditioned. To make this point concrete we examine the implications of this approach to debt management in various models, both analytically and using numerical methods calibrated to the US economy. We find the complete market approach recommends asset positions which are huge multiples of GDP. Introducing persistent shocks or capital accumulation only worsens this problem. Increasing the volatility of interest rates through habits partly reduces the size of these simulations we find no presumption that governments should issue long term debt ? policy recommendations can be easily reversed through small perturbations in the specification of shocks or small variations in the maturity of bonds issued. We further extend the literature by removing the assumption that governments every period costlessly repurchase all outstanding debt. This exacerbates the size of the required positions, worsens their volatility and in some cases produces instability in debt holdings. We conclude that it is very difficult to insulate fiscal policy from shocks by using the complete markets approach to debt management. Given the limited variability of the yield curve using maturities is a poor way to substitute for state contingent debt. The result is the positions recommended by this approach conflict with a number of features that we believe are important in making bond markets incomplete e.g allowing for transaction costs, liquidity effects, etc.. Until these features are all fully incorporated we remain in search of a theory of debt management capable of providing robust policy insights.

Studies in search of a suitable experimental insect model for xenodiagnosis of hosts with Chagas' disease: 2 - Attempts to upgrade the reliability and the efficacy of xenodiagnosis in chronic Chagas' disease

In order to upgrade the reliability of xenodiagnosis, attention has been directed towards population dynamics of the parasite, with particular interest for the following factors: 1. Parasite density which by itself is not a research objective, but by giving an accurate portrayal of parasite development and multiplication, has been incorporated in screening of bugs for xenodiagnosis. 2. On the assumption that food availability might increase parasite density, bugs from xenodiagnosis have been refed at biweekly intervals on chicken blood. 3. Infectivity rates and positives harbouring large parasite yields were based on gut infections, in which the parasite population comprised of all developmental forms was more abundant and easier to detect than in fecal infections, thus minimizing the probability of recording false negatives. 4. Since parasite density, low in the first 15 days of infection, increases rapidly in the following 30 days, the interval of 45 days has been adopted for routine examination of bugs from xenodiagnosis. By following the enumerated measures, all aiming to reduce false negative cases, we are getting closer to a reliable xenodiagnostic procedure. Upgrading the efficacy of xenodiagnosis is also dependent on the xenodiagnostic agent. Of 9 investigated vector species, Panstrongylus megistus deserves top priority as a xenodiagnostic agent. Its extraordinary capability to support fast development and vigorous multiplication of the few parasites, ingested from the host with chronic Chagas' disease, has been revealed by the strikingly close infectivity rates of 91.2% vs. 96.4% among bugs engorged from the same host in the chronic and acute phase of the disease respectively (Table V), the latter comporting an estimated number of 12.3 x 10[raised to the power of 3] parasites in the circulation at the time of xenodiagnosis, as reported previously by the authors (1982).

A Model-to-model analysis of the repeated Prisoners' Dilemma: genetic algorithms vs. evolutionary dynamics

We study the properties of the well known Replicator Dynamics when applied to a finitely repeated version of the Prisoners' Dilemma game. We characterize the behavior of such dynamics under strongly simplifying assumptions (i.e. only 3 strategies are available) and show that the basin of attraction of defection shrinks as the number of repetitions increases. After discussing the difficulties involved in trying to relax the 'strongly simplifying assumptions' above, we approach the same model by means of simulations based on genetic algorithms. The resulting simulations describe a behavior of the system very close to the one predicted by the replicator dynamics without imposing any of the assumptions of the analytical model. Our main conclusion is that analytical and computational models are good complements for research in social sciences. Indeed, while on the one hand computational models are extremely useful to extend the scope of the analysis to complex scenar

Multi-scale support vector algorithms for hot spot detection and modelling

The algorithmic approach to data modelling has developed rapidly these last years, in particular methods based on data mining and machine learning have been used in a growing number of applications. These methods follow a data-driven methodology, aiming at providing the best possible generalization and predictive abilities instead of concentrating on the properties of the data model. One of the most successful groups of such methods is known as Support Vector algorithms. Following the fruitful developments in applying Support Vector algorithms to spatial data, this paper introduces a new extension of the traditional support vector regression (SVR) algorithm. This extension allows for the simultaneous modelling of environmental data at several spatial scales. The joint influence of environmental processes presenting different patterns at different scales is here learned automatically from data, providing the optimum mixture of short and large-scale models. The method is adaptive to the spatial scale of the data. With this advantage, it can provide efficient means to model local anomalies that may typically arise in situations at an early phase of an environmental emergency. However, the proposed approach still requires some prior knowledge on the possible existence of such short-scale patterns. This is a possible limitation of the method for its implementation in early warning systems. The purpose of this paper is to present the multi-scale SVR model and to illustrate its use with an application to the mapping of Cs137 activity given the measurements taken in the region of Briansk following the Chernobyl accident.

Schistosomiasis mansoni: immunodiagnosis aspects and search for an immunological marker related to therapeutic efficacy

The recent findings on immunodiagnosis of schistosomiasis mansoni have shown that purified Schistosoma mansoni antigens do not provide maximum positivity. Therefore, the authors suggest the use of semi-purified antigens for diagnostic purposes. So far, no serological marker for cured patients as shown by negative stool examination was found. However, a tendency of IgG antibody titre decrease was observed, when egg antigen was used.

Efficient knowledge retrieval to calibrate input variables in forest fire prediction

Forest fires are a serious threat to humans and nature from an ecological, social and economic point of view. Predicting their behaviour by simulation still delivers unreliable results and remains a challenging task. Latest approaches try to calibrate input variables, often tainted with imprecision, using optimisation techniques like Genetic Algorithms. To converge faster towards fitter solutions, the GA is guided with knowledge obtained from historical or synthetical fires. We developed a robust and efficient knowledge storage and retrieval method. Nearest neighbour search is applied to find the fire configuration from knowledge base most similar to the current configuration. Therefore, a distance measure was elaborated and implemented in several ways. Experiments show the performance of the different implementations regarding occupied storage and retrieval time with overly satisfactory results.

Stochastic Search Variable Selection in Vector Error Correction Models with an Application to a Model of the UK Macroeconomy

This paper develops methods for Stochastic Search Variable Selection (currently popular with regression and Vector Autoregressive models) for Vector Error Correction models where there are many possible restrictions on the cointegration space. We show how this allows the researcher to begin with a single unrestricted model and either do model selection or model averaging in an automatic and computationally efficient manner. We apply our methods to a large UK macroeconomic model.