An analysis of the risk of cocoa moniliasis occurrence in Brazil as the result of climate change

The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence and the impacts of climate change on this disease in the coming decades, should this pathogen be introduced in Brazil. To this end, climate favorability maps were devised for the occurrence of moniliasis, both for the present and future time. The future scenarios (A2 and B2) focused on the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080. These scenarios were obtained from six global climate models (GCMs) made available by the third assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Currently, there are large areas with favorable climate conditions for moniliasis in Brazil, especially in regions at high risk of introduction of that pathogen. Considering the global warming scenarios provided by the IPCC, the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence in Brazil will be reduced. This decrease is predicted for both future scenarios, but will occur more sharply in scenario A2. However, there will still be areas with favorable climate conditions for the development of the disease, particularly in Brazil's main producing regions. Moreover, pathogen and host alike may undergo alterations due to climate change, which will affect the extent of their impacts on this pathosystem.

Spectral and symbolic analysis of the effect of gender and postural change on cardiac autonomic modulation in healthy elderly subjects

The objective of this study was to use linear and non-linear methods to investigate cardiac autonomic modulation in healthy elderly men and women in response to a postural change from the supine to the standing position. Fourteen men (66.1 ± 3.5 years) and 10 women (65.3 ± 3.3 years) were evaluated. Beat-to-beat heart rate was recorded in the supine and standing positions. Heart rate variability was studied by spectral analysis, including both low (LFnu-cardiac sympathetic modulation (CSM) indicator) and high (HFnu-cardiac vagal modulation (CVM) indicator) frequencies in normalized units as well as the low frequency/high frequency (LF/HF) ratio. Symbolic analysis was performed using the following indexes: 0V% (CSM indicator), 1V% (CSM and CVM indicators), 2LV% (predominantly CVM indicator) and 2ULV% (CVM indicator). Shannon entropy was also calculated. Men presented higher LFnu and LF/HF ratio and lower HFnu and 1V% symbolic index (57.56, 4.14, 40.53, 45.96, respectively) than women (24.60, 0.45, 72.47, 52.69, respectively) in the supine position. Shannon entropy was higher among men (3.53) than among women (3.33) in the standing position, and also increased according to postural change in men (3.25; 3.53). During postural change, the LFnu (24.60; 49.85) and LF/HF ratio (0.45; 1.72) increased, with a concomitant decrease in HFnu (72.47; 47.56) and 2LV% (14.10; 6.95) in women. Women presented increased CSM in response to postural change and had higher CVM and lower CSM than men in the supine position. In conclusion, women in the age range studied presented a more appropriate response to a postural change than men, suggesting that cardiac autonomic modulation may be better preserved in women than in men.

The efficacy of moxifloxacin-based triple therapy in treatment of Helicobacter pylori infection: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials

Recent evidence shows that moxifloxacin could exert an antimicrobial effect against Helicobacter pylori in both in vitroand in vivo models. To systematically evaluate whether moxifloxacin-containing triple therapy could improve eradication rates and reduce side effects in first-line or second-line anti-H. pyloritreatment, eligible articles were identified by searches of electronic databases. We included all randomized trials comparing moxifloxacin-based triple therapy with standard triple or quadruple therapy during H. pylori eradication treatment. Statistical analysis was performed with Review Manager 5.0.10. Subanalysis/sensitivity analysis was also performed. We identified seven randomized trials (n=1263). Pooled H. pylori eradication rates were 79.03% (95%CI: 75.73-82.07) and 68.33% (95%CI: 64.44-72.04) for patients with moxifloxacin-based triple therapy or with standard triple or quadruple therapy, respectively (intention-to-treat analysis). The odds ratio (OR) was 1.82 (95%CI: 1.17-2.81), the occurrence of total side effects was 15.23% (95%CI: 12.58-18.20) and 27.17% (95%CI: 23.64-30.92) for groups with or without moxifloxacin, and the summary OR was 0.45 (95%CI: 0.26-0.77). In subgroup analyses, we noted that the second-line eradication rate in the moxifloxacin group was significantly higher than that in the quadruple therapy group (73.33 vs 60.17%, OR: 1.78, 95%CI: 1.16-2.73, P<0.001). However, there was no difference in first-line eradication treatment. Findings from this meta-analysis suggest that moxifloxacin-based triple therapy is more effective and better tolerated than standard triple or quadruple therapy. Therefore, a moxifloxacin-based triple regimen should be used in the second-line treatment of H. pylori infection.

Analysis of the Change Management Process in a Multinational Company

The purpose of this thesis was to study change management and find out how the theory applies to practise with the help of studying an organizational change process. The goal was to investigate the different ways of the change management and how those could be utilized in practise. The purpose was also to see what kind of tools and information packages for change management the company involved has developed and taken in to use and check if these could have been utilized in the change process studied in this thesis. This thesis was established by studying the theory of change management and interviewing the people involved in the organizational change and the stakeholders. The questions were formed in line with the change management theory. The main theory used was John P. Kotter’s Eight Steps of Change. The study revealed valuable details about change processes in real life and concrete improvement ideas were recognized from the interviews. Overall the people were quite happy with the outcome of the change process. There were also some failures identified in this change process. Most probably those can be avoided in the future if people planning the change are familiar with the company’s new information packages and tools for change management. Change management is a complex area that is still today quite often forgotten by companies. Effective change management can give a huge competitive advantage for a company. Acknowledging that change process is always complex and not easy is already a good step forward in handling change processes. All changes need change management and understanding the way people react on change. A good and efficient change management is the key to make the change process smooth and easier for the people involved.

Performance improvement in mediterranean operations using risk management analysis : Case study of Containerships Group Ltd

Emerging markets of Northern Africa and Turkey provide growth opportunities for logistics service companies in the middle of low growth environment of European Union. The purpose of this research is to explore and analyze the risk factors in container shipping industry and third party logistics (3PL) services. The research empirically examined the risk factors, which are related within the interaction between these two parties in emerging markets of Mediterranean area. The previous studies have provided a valuable insight into the operational risks faced by container shipping industries. However, most of these studies have focused on one or several operational risk factors from a single point of view, and no studies have inclusively examined the possible operational risks faced in the container shipping industry from dual perspective of 3PL provider and its customers. A questionnaire has been deployed to collect related data; and the impacts of the risks were then be assessed and ranked using the method of risk mapping. Respondents were located in Turkey, Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya. Research presents the most important risk factors identified, and compares them between 3PL provider and its customers. The research also provide some risk mitigation strategies for the key risk factors, and tried to figure out a common risk picture, which guides the managers in both sides to have a better decisions and as a result, improve the performance of the container shipping operations. Challenge during project execution time was that customers identified vast amount of more risks than what was the case with logistics service operator.

Analysis of multiple change-points in normally distributed series.

Tesis (Maestría en Ciencias con Orientación en Matemáticas) UANL, 2013.

Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models

In a recent paper, Bai and Perron (1998) considered theoretical issues related to the limiting distribution of estimators and test statistics in the linear model with multiple structural changes. In this companion paper, we consider practical issues for the empirical applications of the procedures. We first address the problem of estimation of the break dates and present an efficient algorithm to obtain global minimizers of the sum of squared residuals. This algorithm is based on the principle of dynamic programming and requires at most least-squares operations of order O(T 2) for any number of breaks. Our method can be applied to both pure and partial structural-change models. Secondly, we consider the problem of forming confidence intervals for the break dates under various hypotheses about the structure of the data and the errors across segments. Third, we address the issue of testing for structural changes under very general conditions on the data and the errors. Fourth, we address the issue of estimating the number of breaks. We present simulation results pertaining to the behavior of the estimators and tests in finite samples. Finally, a few empirical applications are presented to illustrate the usefulness of the procedures. All methods discussed are implemented in a GAUSS program available upon request for non-profit academic use.

Permutation Entropy Based Analysis of Complex Signals for Characterising Change in System Dynamics

Timely detection of sudden change in dynamics that adversely affect the performance of systems and quality of products has great scientific relevance. This work focuses on effective detection of dynamical changes of real time signals from mechanical as well as biological systems using a fast and robust technique of permutation entropy (PE). The results are used in detecting chatter onset in machine turning and identifying vocal disorders from speech signal.Permutation Entropy is a nonlinear complexity measure which can efficiently distinguish regular and complex nature of any signal and extract information about the change in dynamics of the process by indicating sudden change in its value. Here we propose the use of permutation entropy (PE), to detect the dynamical changes in two non linear processes, turning under mechanical system and speech under biological system.Effectiveness of PE in detecting the change in dynamics in turning process from the time series generated with samples of audio and current signals is studied. Experiments are carried out on a lathe machine for sudden increase in depth of cut and continuous increase in depth of cut on mild steel work pieces keeping the speed and feed rate constant. The results are applied to detect chatter onset in machining. These results are verified using frequency spectra of the signals and the non linear measure, normalized coarse-grained information rate (NCIR).PE analysis is carried out to investigate the variation in surface texture caused by chatter on the machined work piece. Statistical parameter from the optical grey level intensity histogram of laser speckle pattern recorded using a charge coupled device (CCD) camera is used to generate the time series required for PE analysis. Standard optical roughness parameter is used to confirm the results.Application of PE in identifying the vocal disorders is studied from speech signal recorded using microphone. Here analysis is carried out using speech signals of subjects with different pathological conditions and normal subjects, and the results are used for identifying vocal disorders. Standard linear technique of FFT is used to substantiate thc results.The results of PE analysis in all three cases clearly indicate that this complexity measure is sensitive to change in regularity of a signal and hence can suitably be used for detection of dynamical changes in real world systems. This work establishes the application of the simple, inexpensive and fast algorithm of PE for the benefit of advanced manufacturing process as well as clinical diagnosis in vocal disorders.

Application of discriminant function analysis and change-point problem in dating volcanic ashes

The application of Discriminant function analysis (DFA) is not a new idea in the study of tephrochrology. In this paper, DFA is applied to compositional datasets of two different types of tephras from Mountain Ruapehu in New Zealand and Mountain Rainier in USA. The canonical variables from the analysis are further investigated with a statistical methodology of change-point problems in order to gain a better understanding of the change in compositional pattern over time. Finally, a special case of segmented regression has been proposed to model both the time of change and the change in pattern. This model can be used to estimate the age for the unknown tephras using Bayesian statistical calibration

Use of nutritional complete supplements in older adults with dementia: systematic review and meta-analysis of clinical outcomes

Background & Aims: Malnutrition is prevalent in people diagnosed with dementia however ensuring adequate oral intake within this group is often problematic. It is important to determine whether providing nutritionally complete oral nutritional supplements (ONS) drinks is an effective way of improving clinical outcomes for older people with dementia. This paper systematically reviewed clinical, wellbeing and nutritional outcomes in people with long-term cognitive impairment. Methods: The CINAHL, Medline and EMBASE databases were searched from their inception until January 2012. Reference lists of the included papers, foreign language papers and review articles obtained were manually searched. Results: Twelve articles were included in the review containing 1076 people in the supplement groups (intervention) and 748 people in the control groups. Meta-analysis shows there was a significant improvement in weight (p=<0.0001), Body Mass Index (BMI) (p=<0.0001) and cognition at 6.5+/-3.9 month follow up (p=0.002) when supplements were given compared to the control group. Conclusions: Providing ONS drinks has a positive effect on weight gain and cognition at follow up in older people with dementia. Additional research is required in both comparing nutritional supplements to vitamin/mineral tablets and high protein/calorie shots and clinical outcomes relevant to hospitalised people with dementia.

Landscape change in central Latvia since the Iron Age: multi-proxy analysis of the vegetation impact of conflict, colonization and economic expansion during the last 2000 years

This study represents the first detailed multi-proxy palaeoenvironmental investigation associated with a Late Iron Age lake-dwelling site in the eastern Baltic. The main objective was to reconstruct the environmental and vegetation dynamics associated with the establishment of the lake-dwelling and land-use during the last 2,000 years. A lacustrine sediment core located adjacent to a Late Iron Age lake-dwelling, medieval castle and Post-medieval manor was sampled in Lake Āraiši. The core was dated using spheroidal fly-ash particles and radiocarbon dating, and analysed in terms of pollen, non-pollen palynomorphs, diatoms, loss-on-ignition, magnetic susceptibility and element geochemistry. Associations between pollen and other proxies were statistically tested. During ad 1–700, the vicinity of Lake Āraiši was covered by forests and human activities were only small-scale with the first appearance of cereal pollen (Triticum and Secale cereale) after ad 400. The most significant changes in vegetation and environment occurred with the establishment of the lake-dwelling around ad 780 when the immediate surroundings of the lake were cleared for agriculture, and within the lake there were increased nutrient levels. The highest accumulation rates of coprophilous fungi coincide with the occupation of the lake-dwelling from ad 780–1050, indicating that parts of the dwelling functioned as byres for livestock. The conquest of tribal lands during the crusades resulted in changes to the ownership, administration and organisation of the land, but our results indicate that the form and type of agriculture and land-use continued much as it had during the preceding Late Iron Age.

Analysis of the regional pattern of sea level change due to ocean dynamics and density changes for 1993-2099 in observations and CMIP5 AOGCMs

Predictions of twenty-first century sea level change show strong regional variation. Regional sea level change observed by satellite altimetry since 1993 is also not spatially homogenous. By comparison with historical and pre-industrial control simulations using the atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) of the CMIP5 project, we conclude that the observed pattern is generally dominated by unforced (internal generated) variability, although some regions, especially in the Southern Ocean, may already show an externally forced response. Simulated unforced variability cannot explain the observed trends in the tropical Pacific, but we suggest that this is due to inadequate simulation of variability by CMIP5 AOGCMs, rather than evidence of anthropogenic change. We apply the method of pattern scaling to projections of sea level change and show that it gives accurate estimates of future local sea level change in response to anthropogenic forcing as simulated by the AOGCMs under RCP scenarios, implying that the pattern will remain stable in future decades. We note, however, that use of a single integration to evaluate the performance of the pattern-scaling method tends to exaggerate its accuracy. We find that ocean volume mean temperature is generally a better predictor than global mean surface temperature of the magnitude of sea level change, and that the pattern is very similar under the different RCPs for a given model. We determine that the forced signal will be detectable above the noise of unforced internal variability within the next decade globally and may already be detectable in the tropical Atlantic.

Marketing Social Change: A Comparative Historical and Methodological Analysis of Anti-Smoking Endeavors

Even though assessing social marketing endeavors proves to be challenging, evaluators can learn from previous campaigns and identify which facets of social marketing events, programs and campaigns need to be improved. Additionally, by analyzing social movements and evaluating how they connect to social marketing, we can gain a clearer view on ways to ameliorate the field of social marketing. As social marketing becomes increasingly sophisticated and similar to commercial marketing, there is hope that social marketing can yield higher rates of success in the future. Friend and Levy (2002) claimed that it was nearly impossible to compare social marketing endeavors using quantitative criteria and advocate the use of qualitative methods. However, if social marketing scholars developed a more systematic paradigm to assess events, programs and campaigns employing a combination of both quantitative and qualitative methods, then it would be easier to establish which social marketing efforts generated more success than others. When there are too many confounding variables, conclusions cannot always be drawn and evaluations may not be viewed as legitimate. As a result, critics become skeptical of social marketing’s value and both the importance and credibility of social marketing decline. With the establishment of proper criteria and evaluation methods, social marketing can progress and initiate more social change.

Modeling and analysis of artificial neural networks applied in operations research

Artificial neural networks are dynamic systems consisting of highly interconnected and parallel nonlinear processing elements. Systems based on artificial neural networks have high computational rates due to the use of a massive number of these computational elements. Neural networks with feedback connections provide a computing model capable of solving a rich class of optimization problems. In this paper, a modified Hopfield network is developed for solving problems related to operations research. The internal parameters of the network are obtained using the valid-subspace technique. Simulated examples are presented as an illustration of the proposed approach. Copyright (C) 2000 IFAC.