Science for Humanitarian Emergencies and Resilience (SHEAR) scoping study: Annex 3 - Early warning system and risk assessment case studies

This report provides case studies of Early Warning Systems (EWSs) and risk assessments encompassing three main hazard types: drought; flood and cyclone. The case studies are taken from ten countries across three continents (focusing on Africa, South Asia and the Caribbean). The case studies have been developed to assist the UK Department for International Development (DFID) to prioritise areas for Early Warning System (EWS) related research under their ‘Science for Humanitarian Emergencies and Resilience’ (SHEAR) programme. The aim of these case studies is to ensure that DFID SHEAR research is informed by the views of Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs) and communities engaged with Early Warning Systems and risk assessments (including community-based Early Warning Systems). The case studies highlight a number of challenges facing Early Warning Systems (EWSs). These challenges relate to financing; integration; responsibilities; community interpretation; politics; dissemination; accuracy; capacity and focus. The case studies summarise a number of priority areas for EWS related research: • Priority 1: Contextualising and localising early warning information • Priority 2: Climate proofing current EWSs • Priority 3: How best to sustain effective EWSs between hazard events? • Priority 4: Optimising the dissemination of risk and warning information • Priority 5: Governance and financing of EWSs • Priority 6: How to support EWSs under challenging circumstances • Priority 7: Improving EWSs through monitoring and evaluating the impact and effectiveness of those systems

Evaluating perceptual separation in a pilot system for affective composition

Research evaluating perceptual responses to music has identified many structural features as correlates that might be incorporated in computer music systems for affectively charged algorithmic composition and/or expressive music performance. In order to investigate the possible integration of isolated musical features to such a system, a discrete feature known to correlate some with emotional responses – rhythmic density – was selected from a literature review and incorporated into a prototype system. This system produces variation in rhythm density via a transformative process. A stimulus set created using this system was then subjected to a perceptual evaluation. Pairwise comparisons were used to scale differences between 48 stimuli. Listener responses were analysed with Multidimensional scaling (MDS). The 2-Dimensional solution was then rotated to place the stimuli with the largest range of variation across the horizontal plane. Stimuli with variation in rhythmic density were placed further from the source material than stimuli that were generated by random permutation. This, combined with the striking similarity between the MDS scaling and that of the 2-dimensional emotional model used by some affective algorithmic composition systems, suggests that isolated musical feature manipulation can now be used to parametrically control affectively charged automated composition in a larger system.

Structure and electrical transport properties of the ordered skutterudites MGe1.5S1.5 (M = Co, Rh, Ir)

High-resolution powder neutron diffraction data collected for the skutterudites MGe1.5S1.5 (M=Co, Rh, Ir) reveal that these materials adopt an ordered skutterudite structure (space group R3¯), in which the anions are ordered in layers perpendicular to the [111] direction. In this ordered structure, the anions form two-crystallographically distinct four-membered rings, with stoichiometry Ge2S2, in which the Ge and S atoms are trans to each other. The transport properties of these materials, which are p-type semiconductors, are discussed in the light of the structural results. The effect of iron substitution in CoGe1.5S1.5 has been investigated. While doping of CoGe1.5S1.5 has a marked effect on both the electrical resistivity and the Seebeck coefficient, these ternary skutterudites exhibit significantly higher electrical resistivities than their binary counterparts.

Analyses of cataract surgery performed by the Unified Health System in Brazil, 2006-2007

Objective. Estimate cataract surgical rates (CSR) for Brazil and each federal unit in 2006 and 2007 based on the number of surgeries performed by the Unified Health System to help plan a comprehensive ophthalmology network in order to eliminate cataract blindness in compliance with the target set by the World Health Organization (WHO) of 3 000 cataract surgeries per million inhabitants per year. Methods. This descriptive study calculates CSR by using the number of cataract surgeries carried out by the Brazilian Unified Health System for each federal unit and estimates the need for cataract surgery in Brazil for 2006-2007, with official population data provided by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. The number of cataract surgeries was compared with the WHO target. Results. To reach the WHO goal for eliminating age-related cataract blindness in Brazil, 560 312 cataract surgeries in 2006 and 568 006 surgeries in 2007 needed to be done. In 2006, 179 121 cataract surgeries were done by the Unified Health System, corresponding to a CSR of 959 per million population; in 2007, 223 317 were performed, with a CSR of 1 179. With the Brazilian Council of Ophthalmology estimation of 165 000 surgeries each year by the non-public services, the CSR for Brazil would be 1 842 for 2006 and 2 051 for 2007. The proportions needed to achieve the proposed target were 38.6% in 2006 and 31.6% in 2007. Conclusions. Human resources, technical expertise, and equipment are crucial to reach the WHO goal. Brazil has enough ophthalmologists but needs improved planning and infrastructure in order to eliminate the problem, aspects that require greater financial investment and stronger political commitment.

Trends in Morbid Obesity and in Bariatric Surgeries Covered by the Brazilian Public Health System

Obesity is an increasingly serious public health problem on a global level. Morbid obesity, defined as a body mass index greater than 40 kg/m(2), is associated with increased mortality and a high burden of obesity-related morbidities. To study the prevalence of morbid obesity in Brazil, three national anthropometric surveys were reanalyzed. Data about bariatric surgeries were obtained from the Ministry of Health Hospital Information System, which is available online. A 255% rise in the prevalence of morbid obesity was observed, starting at 0.18% in 1975-1976 and growing to 0.33% in 1989 and 0.64% in 2002-2003. There was a higher rate in the South in the first two surveys, but the prevalence in the Southeast rose steadily, reaching 0.77% in 2002-2003 and overtaking the South. Since 1999, the Brazilian Unified Health System has covered surgical treatment for morbid obesity. From 2000 to 2006, there was a sixfold increase in the number of surgeries, which topped the 2,500 mark in 2006. The geographic distribution of these surgeries is heavily concentrated in the Southeast, the most developed region of Brazil, where there is also the highest prevalence of morbid obesity. This was followed by the Southern region. The figures for the rise in morbid obesity in Brazil are startling, especially the increase among men. This is a situation that calls for further study, alongside measures to encourage the adoption of healthy lifestyles. Preventive measures aimed at slowing down or reversing the obesity epidemic are urgently required.

Non-nutritive sucking scoring system for preterm newborns

Aim: To validate a non-nutritive sucking (NNS) scoring system for oral feeding in preterm newborns (PTNB). Methods: A cohort study was carried out in two phases. In phase one of the study, 22 mastered speech-language pathologists received the protocol and procedure for a NNS scoring system to evaluate the content and presentation of the form and to define the grading scale. In phase two, six speech-language pathologists evaluated 51 PTNBs weekly, using the defined scoring system. Setting: This study was carried out in the Nursery Annex to the Maternity at the Intensive and Neonatal Pediatrics Service, Instituto da Crianca, Hospital das Clinicas, School of Medicine, University of Sao Paulo (FMUSP) during the period from May 2004 to May 2006. Participants: A total of 28 speech-language pathologist experts and 51 PTNBs. Results: In the first phase of the study, 22 speech-language pathologists selected the criteria, utilized in the NNS evaluation with 80% agreement. In the second phase of the study, the NNS evaluation was carried out on 51 PTNB, and a scoring system of 50 points was proposed, which corresponds to the smallest number of false positive and negative results regarding oral feeding ability. Conclusion: An NNS evaluation system was validated that was able to indicate when oral feeding could safely begin in PTNBs with a high level of agreement among the speech-language pathologists who have participated.

Dynamics of Aeromonas species isolated from wastewater treatment system

Aeromonas are widely distributed in the aquatic environment, and are considered to be emerging organisms that can produce a series of virulence factors. The present study was carried out in a sanitary sewage stabilization pond treatment system, located in Lins, State of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Most probable number was applied for estimation of the genus Aeromonas. Colony isolation was carried out on blood agar ampicillin and confirmed by biochemical characterization. Aeromonas species were isolated in 72.4% of influent samples, and in 55.2 and 48.3% of effluent from anaerobic and facultative lagoons, respectively. Thirteen Aeromonas species were isolated, representing most of the recognized species of these organisms. Even though it was possible to observe a tendency of decrease, total elimination of these organisms from the studied system was not achieved. Understanding of the pathogenic organism`s dynamics in wastewater treatment systems with a reuse potential is especially important because of the risk it represents.

Conceptus-mediated endometrial vascular changes during early pregnancy in mares: an anatomic, histomorphometric, and vascular endothelial growth factor receptor system immunolocalization and gene expression study

This work examined how the conceptus modulates endometrial tissue remodeling and vascular development prior to implantation in mares. A macroscopic uterine examination was completed at day 21 of pregnancy. In situ morphology revealed that the endometrium involved in encroachment is restricted to the dorsal endometrium immediately overlying the yolk sac. The amount of stromal area occupied by blood vessels and the number of endometrial glands were increased during early pregnancy. Endometrial histomorphometry as well as the endometrial mRNA abundance and immunolocalization of VEGF, VEGFR1, VEGFR2, and Ki-67 was completed at days 14 and 21 of pregnancy, at day 10 of the estrous cycle, and during estrus. No obvious differences in VEGF and VEGFR1 protein localization were detected between pregnant and cycling mares but differential staining pattern for VEGFR2 and Ki-67 was observed. VEGFR2 localized to luminal and glandular epithelium of pregnant mares, while luminal epithelium was negative in cycling mares. Ki-67 staining was weak during the luteal phase but exhibited prominent luminal epithelium staining during estrus. In pregnant mares, all endometrial layers were Ki-67 positive. Quantitative RT-PCR revealed a greater abundance of VEGF mRNA during pregnancy. VEGFR2 transcript abundance was greatest in pregnant mares on day 21. This study supports the concept that the conceptus plays an active role in directing vasculogenesis within the uterus and thereby establishing hemotrophic nutrition that supports pregnancy after implantation. Reproduction (2011) 142 593-603

Near-infrared integral field spectroscopy of the Homunculus nebula around eta Carinae using Gemini/CIRPASS

This work presents the first integral field spectroscopy of the Homunculus nebula around eta Carinae in the near-infrared spectral region (J band). We confirmed the presence of a hole on the polar region of each lobe, as indicated by previous near-IR long-slit spectra and mid-IR images. The holes can be described as a cylinder of height (i.e. the thickness of the lobe) and diameter of 6.5 and 6.0 x 10(16) cm, respectively. We also mapped the blue-shifted component of He I lambda 10830 seen towards the NW lobe. Contrary to previous works, we suggested that this blue-shifted component is not related to the Paddle but it is indeed in the equatorial disc. We confirmed the claim of N. Smith and showed that the spatial extent of the Little Homunculus matches remarkably well the radio continuum emission at 3 cm, indicating that the Little Homunculus can be regarded as a small H II region. Therefore, we used the optically thin 1.3 mm radio flux to derive a lower limit for the number of Lyman-continuum photons of the central source in eta Car. In the context of a binary system, and assuming that the ionizing flux comes entirely from the hot companion star, the lower limit for its spectral type and luminosity class ranges from O5.5 III to O7 I. Moreover, we showed that the radio peak at 1.7 arcsec NW from the central star is in the same line-of-sight of the `Sr-filament` but they are obviously spatially separated, while the blue-shifted component of He I lambda 10830 may be related to the radio peak and can be explained by the ultraviolet radiation from the companion star.

A novel regeneration system for a wild passion fruit species (Passiflora cincinnata Mast.) based on somatic embryogenesis from mature zygotic embryos

The objective of the present work was to induce somatic embryogenesis from zygotic embryos of Passiflora cincinnata Masters. Zygotic embryos formed calli on media with different concentrations of 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4-D) and 4.5 mu M benzyladenine (BA) after 30 days of in vitro culture. A concentration of 18.1 mu M 2,4-D resulted in the largest number of somatic embryos. Embryogenic calli were yellowish and friable, forming whitish proembryogenic masses. Morphologically, embryogenic cells were small and had large nuclei and dense cytoplasm, whereas non-embryogenic cells were elongated, with small nuclei and less dense cytoplasm. Calli cultured under white light on basal Murashige and Skoog`s medium with activated charcoal produced embryos in all developmental stages. There were differences among the treatments, with some leading to the production of calli with embryos and some only to callus formation. Some abnormalities were associated with somatic embryos, including fused axes, fused cotyledons and polycotyledonary embryos. Production of secondary somatic embryos occurred in the first cycle of primary embryo development. Secondary embryos differentiated from the surface of the protodermal layer of primary embryos with intense cell proliferation, successive mitotic divisions in the initial phase of embryoid development, and a vascular system formed with no connection to the parental tissue. This secondary embryogenic system of P. cincinnata is characterized by intense proliferation and maintenance of embryogenic competence after successive subcultures. This reproducible protocol opens new prospects for massive propagation and is an alternative to the current organogenesis-based transformation protocol.

Insights into the Specificity of Thioredoxin Reductase-Thioredoxin Interactions. A Structural and Functional Investigation of the Yeast Thioredoxin System

The enzymatic activity of thioredoxin reductase enzymes is endowed by at least two redox centers: a flavin and a dithiol/disulfide CXXC motif. The interaction between thioredoxin reductase and thioredoxin is generally species-specific, but the molecular aspects related to this phenomenon remain elusive. Here, we investigated the yeast cytosolic thioredoxin system, which is composed of NADPH, thioredoxin reductase (ScTrxR1), and thioredoxin 1 (ScTrx1) or thioredoxin 2 (ScTrx2). We showed that ScTrxR1 was able to efficiently reduce yeast thioredoxins (mitochondrial and cytosolic) but failed to reduce the human and Escherichia coli thioredoxin counterparts. To gain insights into this specificity, the crystallographic structure of oxidized ScTrxR1 was solved at 2.4 angstrom resolution. The protein topology of the redox centers indicated the necessity of a large structural rearrangement for FAD and thioredoxin reduction using NADPH. Therefore, we modeled a large structural rotation between the two ScTrxR1 domains (based on the previously described crystal structure, PDB code 1F6M). Employing diverse approaches including enzymatic assays, site-directed mutagenesis, amino acid sequence alignment, and structure comparisons, insights were obtained about the features involved in the species-specificity phenomenon, such as complementary electronic parameters between the surfaces of ScTrxR1 and yeast thioredoxin enzymes and loops and residues (such as Ser(72) in ScTrx2). Finally, structural comparisons and amino acid alignments led us to propose a new classification that includes a larger number of enzymes with thioredoxin reductase activity, neglected in the low/high molecular weight classification.

Building binary-tree-based multiclass classifiers using separability measures

Various popular machine learning techniques, like support vector machines, are originally conceived for the solution of two-class (binary) classification problems. However, a large number of real problems present more than two classes. A common approach to generalize binary learning techniques to solve problems with more than two classes, also known as multiclass classification problems, consists of hierarchically decomposing the multiclass problem into multiple binary sub-problems, whose outputs are combined to define the predicted class. This strategy results in a tree of binary classifiers, where each internal node corresponds to a binary classifier distinguishing two groups of classes and the leaf nodes correspond to the problem classes. This paper investigates how measures of the separability between classes can be employed in the construction of binary-tree-based multiclass classifiers, adapting the decompositions performed to each particular multiclass problem. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Micelles forming biaxial lyotropic nematic phases

The paper by Yu and Saupe on the first biaxial nematic phase created excitement for a number of reasons. Some theories of biaxial phases already existed, but experimental observation was still lacking. The phase was discovered in a lyotropic system with three components, which in theory is difficult. Lyotropic liquid crystals are composed of supramolecular assemblies of amphiphilic molecules, which may change shape and size as a function of concentration and temperature. The experimental phase diagram of the lyotropic biaxial phase was rather complex, with the biaxial region inserted between nematic cylindrical and nematic discotic phases via second-order transitions. In addition, re-entrant behaviour was evident. Saupe investigated further systems experimentally, observing that the biaxial phase might be absent in cases where a direct transition between the cylindrical and discotic phases occurred. He provided a range of theoretical and experimental contributions on the properties of these lyotropics, but was very cautious regarding the detailed amphiphilic assemblies involved. The present paper reviews this area, focusing on proposals for the structure of the micellar assemblies. Emphasis is placed on recent papers which indicate a transformation of the two uniaxial shapes, in mixing conditions, both from the theoretical and the experimental point of view, and to questions still requiring further study.

Structural Characterization of Photopolymerizable Binary Liposomes Containing Diacetylenic and Saturated Phospholipids

The use of liposomes to encapsulate materials has received widespread attention for drug delivery, transfection, diagnostic reagent, and as immunoadjuvants. Phospholipid polymers form a new class of biomaterials with many potential applications in medicine and research. Of interest are polymeric phospholipids containing a diacetylene moiety along their acyl chain since these kinds of lipids can be polymerized by Ultra-Violet (UV) irradiation to form chains of covalently linked lipids in the bilayer. In particular the diacetylenic phosphatidylcholine 1,2-bis(10,12-tricosadiynoyl)- sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine (DC8,9PC) can form intermolecular cross-linking through the diacetylenic group to produce a conjugated polymer within the hydrocarbon region of the bilayer. As knowledge of liposome structures is certainly fundamental for system design improvement for new and better applications, this work focuses on the structural properties of polymerized DC8,9PC:1,2-dimyristoyl-sn-glycero-3-phusphocholine (DMPC) liposomes. Liposomes containing mixtures of DC8,9PC and DMPC, at different molar ratios, and exposed to different polymerization cycles, were studied through the analysis of the electron spin resonance (ESR) spectra of a spin label incorporated into the bilayer, and the calorimetric data obtained from differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) studies. Upon irradiation, if all lipids had been polymerized, no gel-fluid transition would be expected. However, even samples that went through 20 cycles of UV irradiation presented a DSC band, showing that around 80% of the DC8,9PC molecules were not polymerized. Both DSC and ESR indicated that the two different lipids scarcely mix at low temperatures, however few molecules of DMPC are present in DC8,9PC rich domains and vice versa. UV irradiation was found to affect the gel fluid transition of both DMPC and DC8,9PC rich regions, indicating the presence of polymeric units of DC8,9PC in both areas, A model explaining lipids rearrangement is proposed for this partially polymerized system.

Reentrant quantum Hall effect in bilayer system at high filling factors

We report on the measurements of the quantum Hall effect states in double quantum well structures at the filling factors v = 4N + 1 and 4N + 3, where N is the Landau index number, in the presence of the in-plane magnetic field. The quantum Hall states at these filling factors vanish and reappear several times. Repeated reentrance of the transport gap occurs due to the periodic vanishing of the tunneling amplitude in the presence of the in-plane field. When the gap vanishes, the transport becomes anisotropic. The anisotropy persist at half-odd filling factors, when bilayer quantum Hall states are recovered with increase of the tilt angle. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.