Local Influence Under Parameter Constraints

Calculations of local influence curvatures and leverage have been well developed when the parameters are unrestricted. In this article, we discuss the assessment of local influence and leverage under linear equality parameter constraints with extensions to inequality constraints. Using a penalized quadratic function we express the normal curvature of local influence for arbitrary perturbation schemes and the generalized leverage matrix in interpretable forms, which depend on restricted and unrestricted components. The results are quite general and can be applied in various statistical models. In particular, we derive the normal curvature under three useful perturbation schemes for generalized linear models. Four illustrative examples are analyzed by the methodology developed in the article.

On estimation and influence diagnostics for the Grubbs` model under heavy-tailed distributions

The Grubbs` measurement model is frequently used to compare several measuring devices. It is common to assume that the random terms have a normal distribution. However, such assumption makes the inference vulnerable to outlying observations, whereas scale mixtures of normal distributions have been an interesting alternative to produce robust estimates, keeping the elegancy and simplicity of the maximum likelihood theory. The aim of this paper is to develop an EM-type algorithm for the parameter estimation, and to use the local influence method to assess the robustness aspects of these parameter estimates under some usual perturbation schemes, In order to identify outliers and to criticize the model building we use the local influence procedure in a Study to compare the precision of several thermocouples. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influence diagnostics for linear models with first-order autoregressive elliptical errors

We introduce in this paper the class of linear models with first-order autoregressive elliptical errors. The score functions and the Fisher information matrices are derived for the parameters of interest and an iterative process is proposed for the parameter estimation. Some robustness aspects of the maximum likelihood estimates are discussed. The normal curvatures of local influence are also derived for some usual perturbation schemes whereas diagnostic graphics to assess the sensitivity of the maximum likelihood estimates are proposed. The methodology is applied to analyse the daily log excess return on the Microsoft whose empirical distributions appear to have AR(1) and heavy-tailed errors. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An algebraic theory for generalized Jordan chains and partial signatures in the Lagrangian Grassmannian

We discuss an algebraic theory for generalized Jordan chains and partial signatures, that are invariants associated to sequences of symmetric bilinear forms on a vector space. We introduce an intrinsic notion of partial signatures in the Lagrangian Grassmannian of a symplectic space that does not use local coordinates, and we give a formula for the Maslov index of arbitrary real analytic paths in terms of partial signatures.

Axial ligand influence on geometries, charge distributions and electronic structures of iron tetraazamacrocycle [Fe((II))TIM(X)(Y)](2+) complexes assessed by Density Functional Theory

We employed the Density Functional Theory along with small basis sets, B3LYP/LANL2DZ, for the study of FeTIM complexes with different pairs of axial ligands (CO, H(2)O, NH(3), imidazole and CH(3)CN). These calculations did not result in relevant changes of molecular quantities as bond lengths, vibrational frequencies and electronic populations supporting any significant back-donation to the carbonyl or acetonitrile axial ligands. Moreover, a back-donation mechanism to the macrocycle cannot be used to explain the observed changes in molecular properties along these complexes with CO or CH(3)CN. This work also indicates that complexes with CO show smaller binding energies and are less stable than complexes with CH(3)CN. Further, the electronic band with the largest intensity in the visible region (or close to this region) is associated to the transition from an occupied 3d orbital on iron to an empty pi* orbital located at the macrocycle. The energy of this Metal-to-Ligand Charge Transfer (MLCT) transition shows a linear relation to the total charge of the macrocycle in these complexes as given by Mulliken or Natural Population Analysis (NPA) formalisms. Finally, the macrocycle total charge seems to be influenced by the field induced by the axial ligands. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Investigating the Nature of Noble Gas-Copper Bonds by the Quantum Theory of Atoms in Molecules

We investigated noble gas copper bonds in linear complexes represented by the NgCuX general formula in which Ng and X stand for a noble gas (neon, argon, krypton, or xenon) and a halogen (fluorine, chlorine or bromine), respectively, by coupled cluster methods and modified cc-pVQZ basis sets. The quantum theory of atoms in molecules (QTAIM) shows a linear relation between the dissociation energy or noble gas-copper bonds and the amount of electronic charge transferred mainly from the noble gas to copper during complexation. Large changes in the QTAIM quadrupole moments of copper and noble gases resulting from this bonding and a comparison between NgCuX and NgNaCl systems indicate that these noble gas-copper bonds should be better interpreted as predominantly covalent. Finally, QTAIM atomic dipoles of noble gases in NgNaCl systems agree satisfactorily with atomic dipoles given by a simple model for these NgNa van der Waals bonds.

Hglm: A package for fitting hierarchical generalized linear models

We present the hglm package for fitting hierarchical generalized linear models. It can be used for linear mixed models and generalized linear mixed models with random effects for a variety of links and a variety of distributions for both the outcomes and the random effects. Fixed effects can also be fitted in the dispersion part of the model.

Genetic heterogeneity of residual variance : estimation of variance components using double hierarchical generalized linear models

Background: The sensitivity to microenvironmental changes varies among animals and may be under genetic control. It is essential to take this element into account when aiming at breeding robust farm animals. Here, linear mixed models with genetic effects in the residual variance part of the model can be used. Such models have previously been fitted using EM and MCMC algorithms. Results: We propose the use of double hierarchical generalized linear models (DHGLM), where the squared residuals are assumed to be gamma distributed and the residual variance is fitted using a generalized linear model. The algorithm iterates between two sets of mixed model equations, one on the level of observations and one on the level of variances. The method was validated using simulations and also by re-analyzing a data set on pig litter size that was previously analyzed using a Bayesian approach. The pig litter size data contained 10,060 records from 4,149 sows. The DHGLM was implemented using the ASReml software and the algorithm converged within three minutes on a Linux server. The estimates were similar to those previously obtained using Bayesian methodology, especially the variance components in the residual variance part of the model. Conclusions: We have shown that variance components in the residual variance part of a linear mixed model can be estimated using a DHGLM approach. The method enables analyses of animal models with large numbers of observations. An important future development of the DHGLM methodology is to include the genetic correlation between the random effects in the mean and residual variance parts of the model as a parameter of the DHGLM.

Likelihood prediction for generalized linear mixed models under covariate uncertainty

This paper presents the techniques of likelihood prediction for the generalized linear mixed models. Methods of likelihood prediction is explained through a series of examples; from a classical one to more complicated ones. The examples show, in simple cases, that the likelihood prediction (LP) coincides with already known best frequentist practice such as the best linear unbiased predictor. The paper outlines a way to deal with the covariate uncertainty while producing predictive inference. Using a Poisson error-in-variable generalized linear model, it has been shown that in complicated cases LP produces better results than already know methods.

Parameter estimation of Poisson generalized linear mixed models based on three different statistical principles : a simulation study

Generalized linear mixed models are flexible tools for modeling non-normal data and are useful for accommodating overdispersion in Poisson regression models with random effects. Their main difficulty resides in the parameter estimation because there is no analytic solution for the maximization of the marginal likelihood. Many methods have been proposed for this purpose and many of them are implemented in software packages. The purpose of this study is to compare the performance of three different statistical principles - marginal likelihood, extended likelihood, Bayesian analysis-via simulation studies. Real data on contact wrestling are used for illustration.

Pressure Perturbation Calorimetry and Guest-Host Chemistry of NDMG and N-MAP with p-Sulfonatocalix[6]arene

The aim of this project is to provide an explanation for recently obtained binding constants for two similar guest molecules, NDMG and N-MAP, with a p-sulfonatocalix[6]arene host in ammonium acetate buffer. This work was done primarily using pressure perturbation calorimetry, which is a technique that determines the coefficient of thermal expansion, α, which is in turn related to the solute molecule's effect on the order of the surrounding water molecules. A series of experiments were designed to test the effects of suspected confounding variables on the validity of PPC data. PPC was then used to study NDMG and N-MAP in ammonium acetate buffer. NDMG exhibited a minimum in α as function of temperature, while N-MAP did not. This difference was theorized to be due to the formation of an intramolecular hydrogen bond in monocationic NDMG that would lower the heat capacity of the molecule and better distribute the molecule's charge. Computational work and nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy confirmed that monocationic, ring-closed NDMG has less concentrated charge and more constrained motion than monocationic, ring-open NDMG. This evidence supports the theory that monocationic NDMG forms an intramolecular hydrogen bond and that this may be responsible for the minimum in α. This difference may explain the differences in binding constants between NDMG and N-MAP.

Revisiting modern portfolio theory

This paper revisits Modern Portfolio Theory and derives eleven properties of Efficient Allocations and Portfolios in the presence of leverage. With different degrees of leverage, an Efficient Portfolio is a linear combination of two portfolios that lie in different efficient frontiers - which allows for an attractive reinterpretation of the Separation Theorem. In particular a change in the investor risk-return preferences will leave the allocation between the Minimum Risk and Risk Portfolios completely unaltered - but will change the magnitudes of the tactical risk allocations within the Risk Portfolio. The paper also discusses the role of diversification in an Efficient Portfolio, emphasizing its more tactical, rather than strategic character

H-infinity control design for time-delay linear systems: a rational transfer function based approach

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Origem física das curvas sigmoidais respiratórias pressão-volume: recrutamento alveolar e elasticidade não-linear

An important unsolved problem in medical science concerns the physical origin of the sigmoidal shape of pressure volume curves of healthy (and some unhealthy) lungs. Such difficulties are expected because the lung, which is the most important structure in the respiratory system, is extremely complex. Its rheological properties are unknown and seem to depend on phenomena occurring from the alveolar scale up to the thoracic scale. Conventional wisdom holds that linear response, i.e., Hooke s law, together with alveolar overdistention, play a dominant role in respiration, but such assumptions cannot explainthe crucial empirical sigmoidal shape of the curves. In this doctorate thesis, we propose an alternative theory to solve this problem, based on the alveolar recruitment together with the nonlinear elasticity of the alveoli. This theory suggests that recruitment may be the predominant factor shaping these curves in the entire range of pressures normally employed in experiments. The proposed model correctly predicts the observed sigmoidal pressure volume curves, allowing us to discuss adequately the importance of this result, as well as its implications for medical practice

Identificação não linear usando uma rede fuzzy wavelet neural network modificada

In last decades, neural networks have been established as a major tool for the identification of nonlinear systems. Among the various types of networks used in identification, one that can be highlighted is the wavelet neural network (WNN). This network combines the characteristics of wavelet multiresolution theory with learning ability and generalization of neural networks usually, providing more accurate models than those ones obtained by traditional networks. An extension of WNN networks is to combine the neuro-fuzzy ANFIS (Adaptive Network Based Fuzzy Inference System) structure with wavelets, leading to generate the Fuzzy Wavelet Neural Network - FWNN structure. This network is very similar to ANFIS networks, with the difference that traditional polynomials present in consequent of this network are replaced by WNN networks. This paper proposes the identification of nonlinear dynamical systems from a network FWNN modified. In the proposed structure, functions only wavelets are used in the consequent. Thus, it is possible to obtain a simplification of the structure, reducing the number of adjustable parameters of the network. To evaluate the performance of network FWNN with this modification, an analysis of network performance is made, verifying advantages, disadvantages and cost effectiveness when compared to other existing FWNN structures in literature. The evaluations are carried out via the identification of two simulated systems traditionally found in the literature and a real nonlinear system, consisting of a nonlinear multi section tank. Finally, the network is used to infer values of temperature and humidity inside of a neonatal incubator. The execution of such analyzes is based on various criteria, like: mean squared error, number of training epochs, number of adjustable parameters, the variation of the mean square error, among others. The results found show the generalization ability of the modified structure, despite the simplification performed