Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

Understanding Early Childhood Education and Care in Australia: Practices and Perspectives

A foundational text for pre-service teachers explaining the theories, policies and pedagogies that shape the provision of early childhood education and care in Australia. In order to effectively practise as an early childhood educator it is essential to understand the theories, policies and pedagogy that shape the discipline. Understanding Early Childhood Education and Care in Australia provides core foundational knowledge that is critical for best practice. Part One looks at concepts of childhood and the development of mass education before examining influential theories including developmental psychology, sociology, feminisms and critical theory. Specific approaches are also analysed including Reggio Emilia, Montessori, Multiple Intelligences and HighScope. Part Two focuses on the guiding frameworks and policies in Australia and explores in depth issues affecting Indigenous children and provisions for recognising diversity and the practice of inclusion. The final section examines teaching and leadership and considers curriculum, pedagogy and assessment, building relationships between staff and families, the care of babies and infants, the environment in which early childhood education takes place and the responsibilities and professional development of teachers. This essential reference will ensure pre-service teachers develop a sophisticated understanding of how theory underpins effective practice in early childhood education.

Determination of refractive and volatile elements in sediment using laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry

Wet-milling protocol was employed to produce pressed powder tablets with excellent cohesion and homogeneity suitable for laser ablation (LA) analysis of volatile and refractive elements in sediment. The influence of sample preparation on analytical performance was also investigated, including sample homogeneity, accuracy and limit of detection. Milling in volatile solvent for 40 min ensured sample is well mixed and could reasonably recover both volatile (Hg) and refractive (Zr) elements. With the exception of Cr (−52%) and Nb (+26%) major, minor and trace elements in STSD-1 and MESS-3 could be analysed within ±20% of the certified values. Comparison of the method with total digestion method using HF was tested by analysing 10 different sediment samples. The laser method recovers significantly higher amounts of analytes such as Ag, Cd, Sn and Sn than the total digestion method making it a more robust method for elements across the periodic table. LA-ICP-MS also eliminates the interferences from chemical reagents as well as the health and safety risks associated with digestion processes. Therefore, it can be considered as an enhanced method for the analysis of heterogeneous matrices such as river sediments.

Mossbauer-Effect Study Of The Thermal-Decomposition In Hydrogen Of Homogeneously Mixed Ferrous Nickel Oxalates With Different Iron To Nickel Ratios

Mossbauer effect and X-ray measurements are carried out on product samples of the thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) and isothermal decomposition in hydrogen of homogeneously mixed ferrous nickel oxalates with different iron to nickel ratios. The formation of Fe-Ni alloy is obtained at considerably lower temperatures (z 300 "C) in each case. The Fe-Ni alloys obtained shift from iron-rich to nickel-rich composition as the nickel ratio in the mixed metal oxalates is increased. The formation of Pe-Ni Invar from mixed metal oxalate with Fe:Ni = 1:l is indicated in the early stages but not from those with Fe:Ni = 2: 1 or 64:36. An Produktproben von homogen verteilten Eisen-Nickeloxalaten mit unterschiedlichem Eisen- Nickel-Verhaltnis nach thermogravimetrischer Analyse (TGA) und isothermem Zerfall in Wasserst off werden Mollbauereffekt- und Rontgenmessnngen durchgefuhrt. In allen Fiillen wird die Bildung der Fe-Ni-Legierung bei betriichtlich niedrigeren Temperaturen (= 300 "C) erhalten. Die erhaltenen Fe-Ni-Legierungen verschieben sich von der eisenreichen zur nickelreichen Zusrtmmensetzung, wenn das Nickelverhaltnis in dem BIetall-Mischoxalat erhoht wird. Die Bildung der Fe-Ni-lnvar-Legierung aus dem Metall-Mischoxalat mit Fe:Ni = 1 : 1 wird in fruhen Zu Zustanden beobachtet, iedoch nicht aus Oxalaten mit Fe:Ni = 2:1 oder 64:36.

Principles of Pitch Organization in Béla Bartók's 'Duke Bluebeard's Castle'

The topic of my doctoral thesis is to demonstrate the usefulness of incorporating tonal and modal elements into a pitch-web square analysis of Béla Bartók's (1881-1945) opera, 'A kékszakállú herceg vára' ('Duke Bluebeard's Castle'). My specific goal is to demonstrate that different musical materials, which exist as foreground melodies or long-term key progressions, are unified by the unordered pitch set {0,1,4}, which becomes prominent in different sections of Bartók's opera. In Bluebeard's Castle, the set {0,1,4} is also found as a subset of several tetrachords: {0,1,4,7}, {0,1,4,8}, and {0,3,4,7}. My claim is that {0,1,4} serves to link music materials between themes, between sections, and also between scenes. This study develops an analytical method, drawn from various theoretical perspectives, for conceiving superposed diatonic spaces within a hybrid pitch-space comprised of diatonic and chromatic features. The integrity of diatonic melodic lines is retained, which allows for a non-reductive understanding of diatonic superposition, without appealing to pitch centers or specifying complete diatonic collections. Through combining various theoretical insights of the Hungarian scholar Ernő Lendvai, and the American theorists Elliott Antokoletz, Paul Wilson and Allen Forte, as well as the composer himself, this study gives a detailed analysis of the opera's pitch material in a way that combines, complements, and expands upon the studies of those scholars. The analyzed pitch sets are represented on Aarre Joutsenvirta's note-web square, which adds a new aspect to the field of Bartók analysis. Keywords: Bartók, Duke Bluebeard's Castle (Op. 11), Ernő Lendvai, axis system, Elliott Antokoletz, intervallic cycles, intervallic cells, Allen Forte, set theory, interval classes, interval vectors, Aarre Joutsenvirta, pitch-web square, pitch-web analysis.

Inferential, non-parametric statistics to assess quality of probabilistic forecast systems

Many statistical forecast systems are available to interested users. In order to be useful for decision-making, these systems must be based on evidence of underlying mechanisms. Once causal connections between the mechanism and their statistical manifestation have been firmly established, the forecasts must also provide some quantitative evidence of `quality’. However, the quality of statistical climate forecast systems (forecast quality) is an ill-defined and frequently misunderstood property. Often, providers and users of such forecast systems are unclear about what ‘quality’ entails and how to measure it, leading to confusion and misinformation. Here we present a generic framework to quantify aspects of forecast quality using an inferential approach to calculate nominal significance levels (p-values) that can be obtained either by directly applying non-parametric statistical tests such as Kruskal-Wallis (KW) or Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) or by using Monte-Carlo methods (in the case of forecast skill scores). Once converted to p-values, these forecast quality measures provide a means to objectively evaluate and compare temporal and spatial patterns of forecast quality across datasets and forecast systems. Our analysis demonstrates the importance of providing p-values rather than adopting some arbitrarily chosen significance levels such as p < 0.05 or p < 0.01, which is still common practice. This is illustrated by applying non-parametric tests (such as KW and KS) and skill scoring methods (LEPS and RPSS) to the 5-phase Southern Oscillation Index classification system using historical rainfall data from Australia, The Republic of South Africa and India. The selection of quality measures is solely based on their common use and does not constitute endorsement. We found that non-parametric statistical tests can be adequate proxies for skill measures such as LEPS or RPSS. The framework can be implemented anywhere, regardless of dataset, forecast system or quality measure. Eventually such inferential evidence should be complimented by descriptive statistical methods in order to fully assist in operational risk management.

The risk of pollen-mediated gene flow from exotic Corymbia plantations into native Corymbia populations in Australia

Sectors of the forest plantation industry in Australia are set to expand in the near future using species or hybrids of the spotted gums (Corymbia, Section Politaria). Plantations of these taxa have already been introduced across temperate and subtropical Australia, representing locally exotic introductions from native stands in Queensland and New South Wales. A literature review was undertaken to provide insights into the potential for pollen-mediated gene flow from these plantations into native populations. Three factors suggest that such gene flow is likely; (1) interspecific hybridisation within the genus has frequently been recorded, including between distantly related species from different sections, (2) apparent high levels of vertebrate pollinator activity may result in plantation pollen being moved over hundreds of kilometres, (3) much of the plantation estate is being established among closely related taxa and therefore few barriers to gene flow are expected. Across Australia, 20 of the 100 native Corymbia taxa were found to have regional level co-occurrence with plantations. These were located most notably within regions of north-east New South Wales and south-east Queensland, however, co-occurrence was also found in south-west Western Australia and eastern Victoria. The native species found to have co-occurrence were then assessed for the presence of reproductive barriers at each step in the process of gene flow that may reduce the number of species at risk even further. The available data suggest three risk categories exist for Corymbia. The highest risk was for gene flow from plantations of spotted gums to native populations of spotted gums. This was based on the expected limited existence of pre- and post-zygotic barriers, substantial long-distance pollen dispersal and an apparent broad period of flowering in Corymbia citriodora subsp. variegata plantations. The following risk category focussed on gene flow from Corymbia torelliana × C. c. variegata hybrid plantations into native C. c. variegata, as the barriers associated with the production and establishment of F1 hybrids have been circumvented. For the lowest risk category, Corymbia plantations may present a risk to other non-spotted gum species, however, further investigation of the particular cross-combinations is required. A list of research directions is provided to better quantify these risks. Empirical data will need to be combined within a risk assessment framework that will not only estimate the likelihood of exotic gene flow, but also consider the conservation status/value of the native populations. In addition, the potential impacts of pollen flow from plantations will need to be weighed up against their various economic and environmental benefits.

Variation in health care-associated infection surveillance practices in Australia

In the absence of a national health care-associated infection surveillance program in Australia, differences between existing state-based programs were explored using an online survey. Only 51% of respondents who undertake surveillance have been trained, fewer than half perform surgical site infection surveillance prospectively, and only 41% indicated they risk adjust surgical site infection data. Wide- spread variation of surveillance methods highlights future challenges when considering the development and implementation of a national program in Australia.

Development and Accreditation of an Applied Climate Education Unit for Sustainable Land Use in Australia

In recent years, there have been significant developments in climate science relevant to agriculture and natural resource management. Assessing impacts of climate variability and use of seasonal climate forecasts have become increasingly important elements in the management "toolkit" for many Australian farmers. Consideration of climate change further increases the need for improved management strategies. While climate risk extension activities have kept pace with advances in climate science, a national review of the Vocational Education and Training system in Australia in relation to "weather and climate" showed that these topics were "poorly represented" at the management level in the Australian Qualifications Framework, and needed increased emphasis. Consequently, a new Unit of Competency concerning management of climatic risk was developed and accredited to address this deficiency. The objective of the unit was to build knowledge and skills for better management of climate variability via the elements of surveying climatic and enterprise data; analysing climatic risks and opportunities; and developing climatic risk management strategies. This paper describes establishment of a new unit for vocational education that is designed to harness recent developments in applied climate science for better management of Australia's highly variable climate. The main benefits of the new unit of competency, "Developing climatic risk management strategies,"were seen as improving decisions in climate and agriculture, and reducing climate risk exposure to enhance sustainable agriculture. The educational unit is now within the scope of agricultural colleges, universities, and registered training organisations as an accredited unit.

Key ideas, research and challenges in early childhood education and care

The Australian government has recognised the importance of early childhood education and care (ECEC) in recent years. With over one million Australian children accessing early childhood education provision every day (Productivity Commission, 2014), today’s children are a generation who spend a large part of their early years in some form of out-of-home child care. Early chapters in this text have discussed a range of people, theories and approaches that inform the development of ECEC. Early childhood pedagogical practice is an eclectic mix of these ideas. This chapter begins with an overview of the ways young children learn in early childhood education, highlighting play-based learning as a pedagogical response to our understandings about children. Next the chapter outlines areas that have more recently influenced ECEC including international models of early childhood education, neuroscience, studies of young children, economic research and social justice principles. Drawing on the reflections of educators working in various ECEC contexts, the chapter then presents four topics encountered by educators as part of their everyday work with diverse communities. These topics include: • the educational program for children in the early years • relationships and partnerships with diverse families • professional accountabilities, and • changing constructions of childhood.

Introduction

Australian perspectives and practices within early childhood education and care are underpinned by understandings of children, how they learn, their emotional and physical needs and their connectedness to family and their communities. There is strong international research evidence supporting the value of providing high quality and accessible early childhood education and care, and this evidence base continues to grow. Drawing on international and Australian research, this book provides an introduction to this complex and multifaceted field.

All of Us

All of Us is a ground-breaking Australian government approved anti-bullying educational resource comprised of seven online videos that feature gender diverse, sexual diverse and intersex youths. The videos, along with unit guides and student handouts, have been designed to address a gap in high school curriculum as they teach not just about sexual diversity and gender diversity but also the values of empathy and respect, which has been demonstrated to improve students’ wellbeing and educational engagement. The resource captures the real life experiences of lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and intersex young people through a collection of short videos and teaching activities that are aligned to the Year 7/8 Health and Physical Education learning area of the Australian Curriculum. All Of Us has been developed to have a real impact on student attitudes towards lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and intersex people and to encourage whole school change that affirms and supports the right of all students, staff and families to feel safe at school. This free video resource is widely available and allows all schools, regardless of experience, location or funding, the chance to create an environment where every student can learn, every teacher can teach and every family can belong from the beginning of 2016. The resource was launched on Thursday, 26 November 2015 at Treasury Theatre, 1 Macarthur St, Melbourne. The launch was attended by almost 200 people including former Safe Schools Coalition Ambassador Jason Ball, Victorian Commissioner for Gender and Sexuality Ro Allen, Chris Bush, Executive Producer of All Of Us, Micah Scott, CEO of Minus18, All Of Us Margot Fink; Safe Schools Coalition Victoria's Manager Roz Ward and; Sally Richardson, National Program Director of Safe Schools Coalition Australia.

An evaluation of genetic analyses, skull morphology and visual appearance for assessing dingo purity: implications for dingo conservation

The introgression of domestic dog genes into dingo populations threatens the genetic integrity of 'pure' dingoes. However, dingo conservation efforts are hampered by difficulties in distinguishing between dingoes and hybrids in the field. This study evaluates consistency in the status of hybridisation (i.e. dingo, hybrid or dog) assigned by genetic analyses, skull morphology and visual assessments. Of the 56 south-east Queensland animals sampled, 39 (69.6%) were assigned the same status by all three methods, 10 (17.9%) by genetic and skull methods, four (7.1%) by genetic and visual methods; and two (3.6%) by skull and visual methods. Pair-wise comparisons identified a significant relationship between genetic and skull methods, but not between either of these and visual methods. Results from surveying 13 experienced wild dog managers showed that hybrids were more easily identified by visual characters than were dingoes. A more reliable visual assessment can be developed through determining the relationship between (1) genetics and phenotype by sampling wild dog populations and (2) the expression of visual characteristics from different proportions and breeds of domestic dog genes by breeding trials. Culling obvious hybrids based on visual characteristics, such as sable and patchy coat colours, should slow the process of hybridisation.

Encroachment of Echinococcus granulosus into urban areas in eastern Queensland, Australia

Objective: To investigate the prevalence of Echinococcus granulosus in wild dogs (dingos and dingo-domestic dog hybrids) living in and around human habitation on Fraser Island and in townships of the Maroochy Shire, on Queensland's Sunshine Coast, Australia. Design: Wild dogs were humanely killed on Fraser Island and in the Maroochy Shire because they were deemed a potential danger to the public. Their intestines were collected and the contents examined for intestinal parasites. Procedure: Intestines were removed as soon after death as possible, packed in plastic bags and kept frozen until examination. The intestinal contents were washed, sieved and examined microscopically for the presence of helminths, which were identified and counted. Results: Intestines from 108 wild dogs, 7 foxes and 18 Fraser Island dingoes were examined. Echinococcus granulosus was only present in the wild dogs from Maroochy Shire (46.3%) with worm burdens of between 30 and 104,000. Other helminths included Spirometra erinacei, Dipylidium caninum, Taenia spp., Ancylostoma caninum and Toxocara canis. Two specimens of a trematode (Haplorchinae sp.) usually found infecting fish and seabirds were recovered from a Fraser Island dingo. Conclusion: Dingoes on Fraser Island are not infected with E. granulosus and do not pose a hydatid disease public health risk to residents or visitors. However, wild dogs examined from the Maroochy Shire do present a potential hydatid disease public health risk.