Les transformations microbiennes de l’azote dans les grandes rivières

Les rivières reçoivent de l'azote de leurs bassins versants et elles constituent les derniers sites de transformations des nutriments avant leur livraison aux zones côtières. Les transformations de l’azote inorganique dissous en azote gazeux sont très variables et peuvent avoir un impact à la fois sur l’eutrophisation des côtes et les émissions de gaz à effet de serre à l’échelle globale. Avec l’augmentation de la charge en azote d’origine anthropique vers les écosystèmes aquatiques, les modèles d’émissions de gaz à effet de serre prédisent une augmentation des émissions d’oxyde nitreux (N2O) dans les rivières. Les mesures directes de N2O dans le Lac Saint-Pierre (LSP), un élargissement du Fleuve Saint-Laurent (SLR) indiquent que bien qu’étant une source nette de N2O vers l'atmosphère, les flux de N2O dans LSP sont faibles comparés à ceux des autres grandes rivières et fleuves du monde. Les émissions varient saisonnièrement et inter-annuellement à cause des changements hydrologiques. Les ratios d’émissions N2O: N2 sont également influencés par l’hydrologie et de faibles ratios sont observés dans des conditions de débit d'eau plus élevée et de charge en N élevé. Dans une analyse effectuée sur plusieurs grandes rivières, la charge hydraulique des systèmes semble moduler la relation entre les flux de N2O annuels et les concentrations de nitrate dans les rivières. Dans SLR, des tapis de cyanobactéries colonisant les zones à faible concentration de nitrate sont une source nette d’azote grâce à leur capacité de fixer l’azote atmosphérique (N2). Étant donné que la fixation a lieu pendant le jour alors que les concentrations d'oxygène dans la colonne d'eau sont sursaturées, nous supposons que la fixation de l’azote est effectuée dans des micro-zones d’anoxie et/ou possiblement par des diazotrophes hétérotrophes. La fixation de N dans les tapis explique le remplacement de près de 33 % de la perte de N par dénitrification dans tout l'écosystème au cours de la période d'étude. Dans la portion du fleuve Hudson soumis à la marée, la dénitrification et la production de N2 est très variable selon le type de végétation. La dénitrification est associée à la dynamique en oxygène dissous particulière à chaque espèce durant la marée descendante. La production de N2 est extrêmement élevée dans les zones occupées par les plantes envahissantes à feuilles flottantes (Trapa natans) mais elle est négligeable dans la végétation indigène submergée. Une estimation de la production de N2 dans les lits de Trapa durant l’été, suggère que ces lits représentent une zone très active d’élimination de l’azote. En effet, les grands lits de Trapa ne représentent que 2,7% de la superficie totale de la portion de fleuve étudiée, mais ils éliminent entre 70 et 100% de l'azote total retenu dans cette section pendant les mois d'été et contribuent à près de 25% de l’élimination annuelle d’azote.

Le cycle de l'azote de marais filtrants artificiels : potentiel d'émission de gaz à effet de serre (GES) et exportation de formes azotées

Mémoire numérisé par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal

Vers un marché du carbone au Québec : éléments de réflexion à la lumière de l'analyse économique du droit

Dans le cadre de la Western Climate Iniative, le Québec a déployé en 2012, un système de plafonnement et d’échange de droits d’émission de gaz à effet de serre (SPEDE). Il s’agit de l’un des premiers régimes de ce type en Amérique du Nord et celui-ci pourrait à terme, constituer l'un des maillons d’un marché commun du carbone à l’échelle du continent. Toutefois, le SPEDE appartient à une catégorie d’instruments économiques de protection de l’environnement encore peu connue des juristes. Il s’inscrit en effet dans la régulation économique de l’environnement et repose sur des notions tirées de la théorie économique, dont la rareté, la propriété et le marché. La thèse s’insère donc dans le dialogue entre juristes et économistes autour de la conception et de la mise en œuvre de ce type d’instrument. Afin d’explorer son architecture et de révéler les enjeux juridiques qui le traversent, nous avons eu recours à la méthode de l’analyse économique du droit. Celle-ci permet notamment de montrer les dynamiques d'incitation et d’efficacité qui sont à l'œuvre dans les règles qui encadrent le SPEDE. Elle permet également à donner un aperçu du rôle décisif joué par la formulation des règles de droit dans l’opérationnalisation des hypothèses économiques sous-jacentes à cette catégorie d’instrument. L’exploration est menée par l’entremise d’une modélisation progressive de l’échange de droits d’émission qui prend en compte les coûts de transaction. Le modèle proposé dans la thèse met ainsi en lumière, de manière générale, les points de friction qui sont susceptibles de survenir aux différentes étapes de l'échange de droits d'émission et qui peuvent faire obstacle à son efficacité économique. L’application du modèle aux règles du SPEDE a permis de contribuer à l’avancement des connaissances en donnant aux juristes un outil permettant de donner une cohérence et une intelligibilité à l’analyse des règles de l’échange. Elle a ainsi fourni une nomenclature des règles encadrant l’échange de droits d’émission. Cette nomenclature fait ressortir les stratégies de diversification de l’échange, d’institutionnalisation de ses modalités ainsi que les enjeux de la surveillance des marchés, dont celui des instruments dérivés adossés aux droits d’émission, dans un contexte de fragmentation des autorités de tutelle.

L’opinion publique canadienne sur les changements climatiques et les politiques de contrôle des émissions de gaz à effet de serre

Notes d'analyse de la Chaire d’études politiques et économiques américaines

Individual and Collective Responsiveness to Climate Change: A Response to Dwyer

Commentaire / Commentary

Räumliche Modellierung der Dynamik von Landnutzung in Hessen und ihrer Wirkung auf die biologische Kohlenstoffspeicherung - Entwicklung eines GIS-basierten Modellsystems

Die gegenwärtige Entwicklung der internationalen Klimapolitik verlangt von Deutschland eine Reduktion seiner Treibhausgasemissionen. Wichtigstes Treibhausgas ist Kohlendioxid, das durch die Verbrennung fossiler Energieträger in die Atmosphäre freigesetzt wird. Die Reduktionsziele können prinzipiell durch eine Verminderung der Emissionen sowie durch die Schaffung von Kohlenstoffsenken erreicht werden. Senken beschreiben dabei die biologische Speicherung von Kohlenstoff in Böden und Wäldern. Eine wichtige Einflussgröße auf diese Prozesse stellt die räumliche Dynamik der Landnutzung einer Region dar. In dieser Arbeit wird das Modellsystem HILLS entwickelt und zur Simulation dieser komplexen Wirkbeziehungen im Bundesland Hessen genutzt. Ziel ist es, mit HILLS über eine Analyse des aktuellen Zustands hinaus auch Szenarien über Wege der zukünftigen regionalen Entwicklung von Landnutzung und ihrer Wirkung auf den Kohlenstoffhaushalt bis 2020 zu untersuchen. Für die Abbildung der räumlichen und zeitlichen Dynamik von Landnutzung in Hessen wird das Modell LUCHesse entwickelt. Seine Aufgabe ist die Simulation der relevanten Prozesse auf einem 1 km2 Raster, wobei die Raten der Änderung exogen als Flächentrends auf Ebene der hessischen Landkreise vorgegeben werden. LUCHesse besteht aus Teilmodellen für die Prozesse: (A) Ausbreitung von Siedlungs- und Gewerbefläche, (B) Strukturwandel im Agrarsektor sowie (C) Neuanlage von Waldflächen (Aufforstung). Jedes Teilmodell umfasst Methoden zur Bewertung der Standorteignung der Rasterzellen für unterschiedliche Landnutzungsklassen und zur Zuordnung der Trendvorgaben zu solchen Rasterzellen, die jeweils am besten für eine Landnutzungsklasse geeignet sind. Eine Validierung der Teilmodelle erfolgt anhand von statistischen Daten für den Zeitraum von 1990 bis 2000. Als Ergebnis eines Simulationslaufs werden für diskrete Zeitschritte digitale Karten der Landnutzugsverteilung in Hessen erzeugt. Zur Simulation der Kohlenstoffspeicherung wird eine modifizierte Version des Ökosystemmodells Century entwickelt (GIS-Century). Sie erlaubt einen gesteuerten Simulationslauf in Jahresschritten und unterstützt die Integration des Modells als Komponente in das HILLS Modellsystem. Es werden verschiedene Anwendungsschemata für GIS-Century entwickelt, mit denen die Wirkung der Stilllegung von Ackerflächen, der Aufforstung sowie der Bewirtschaftung bereits bestehender Wälder auf die Kohlenstoffspeicherung untersucht werden kann. Eine Validierung des Modells und der Anwendungsschemata erfolgt anhand von Feld- und Literaturdaten. HILLS implementiert eine sequentielle Kopplung von LUCHesse mit GIS-Century. Die räumliche Kopplung geschieht dabei auf dem 1 km2 Raster, die zeitliche Kopplung über die Einführung eines Landnutzungsvektors, der die Beschreibung der Landnutzungsänderung einer Rasterzelle während des Simulationszeitraums enthält. Außerdem integriert HILLS beide Modelle über ein dienste- und datenbankorientiertes Konzept in ein Geografisches Informationssystem (GIS). Auf diesem Wege können die GIS-Funktionen zur räumlichen Datenhaltung und Datenverarbeitung genutzt werden. Als Anwendung des Modellsystems wird ein Referenzszenario für Hessen mit dem Zeithorizont 2020 berechnet. Das Szenario setzt im Agrarsektor eine Umsetzung der AGENDA 2000 Politik voraus, die in großem Maße zu Stilllegung von Ackerflächen führt, während für den Bereich Siedlung und Gewerbe sowie Aufforstung die aktuellen Trends der Flächenausdehnung fortgeschrieben werden. Mit HILLS ist es nun möglich, die Wirkung dieser Landnutzungsänderungen auf die biologische Kohlenstoffspeicherung zu quantifizieren. Während die Ausdehnung von Siedlungsflächen als Kohlenstoffquelle identifiziert werden kann (37 kt C/a), findet sich die wichtigste Senke in der Bewirtschaftung bestehender Waldflächen (794 kt C/a). Weiterhin führen die Stilllegung von Ackerfläche (26 kt C/a) sowie Aufforstung (29 kt C/a) zu einer zusätzlichen Speicherung von Kohlenstoff. Für die Kohlenstoffspeicherung in Böden zeigen die Simulationsexperimente sehr klar, dass diese Senke nur von beschränkter Dauer ist.

Economics of Hybrid Photovoltaic Power Plants

The global power supply stability is faced to several severe and fundamental threats, in particular steadily increasing power demand, diminishing and degrading fossil and nuclear energy resources, very harmful greenhouse gas emissions, significant energy injustice and a structurally misbalanced ecological footprint. Photovoltaic (PV) power systems are analysed in various aspects focusing on economic and technical considerations of supplemental and substitutional power supply to the constraint conventional power system. To infer the most relevant system approach for PV power plants several solar resources available for PV systems are compared. By combining the different solar resources and respective economics, two major PV systems are identified to be very competitive in almost all regions in the world. The experience curve concept is used as a key technique for the development of scenario assumptions on economic projections for the decade of the 2010s. Main drivers for cost reductions in PV systems are learning and production growth rate, thus several relevant aspects are discussed such as research and development investments, technical PV market potential, different PV technologies and the energetic sustainability of PV. Three major market segments for PV systems are identified: off-grid PV solutions, decentralised small scale on-grid PV systems (several kWp) and large scale PV power plants (tens of MWp). Mainly by application of ‘grid-parity’ and ‘fuel-parity’ concepts per country, local market and conventional power plant basis, the global economic market potential for all major PV system segments is derived. PV power plant hybridization potential of all relevant power technologies and the global power plant structure are analyzed regarding technical, economical and geographical feasibility. Key success criteria for hybrid PV power plants are discussed and comprehensively analysed for all adequate power plant technologies, i.e. oil, gas and coal fired power plants, wind power, solar thermal power (STEG) and hydro power plants. For the 2010s, detailed global demand curves are derived for hybrid PV-Fossil power plants on a per power plant, per country and per fuel type basis. The fundamental technical and economic potentials for hybrid PV-STEG, hybrid PV-Wind and hybrid PV-Hydro power plants are considered. The global resource availability for PV and wind power plants is excellent, thus knowing the competitive or complementary characteristic of hybrid PV-Wind power plants on a local basis is identified as being of utmost relevance. The complementarity of hybrid PV-Wind power plants is confirmed. As a result of that almost no reduction of the global economic PV market potential need to be expected and more complex power system designs on basis of hybrid PV-Wind power plants are feasible. The final target of implementing renewable power technologies into the global power system is a nearly 100% renewable power supply. Besides balancing facilities, storage options are needed, in particular for seasonal power storage. Renewable power methane (RPM) offers respective options. A comprehensive global and local analysis is performed for analysing a hybrid PV-Wind-RPM combined cycle gas turbine power system. Such a power system design might be competitive and could offer solutions for nearly all current energy system constraints including the heating and transportation sector and even the chemical industry. Summing up, hybrid PV power plants become very attractive and PV power systems will very likely evolve together with wind power to the major and final source of energy for mankind.

India’s Carbon Governance: The Clean Development Mechanism

Carbon Governance systems – institutional arrangements in place for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions – are different in emerging countries. Indeed, carbon is the same everywhere but Carbon Governance isn’t: in Brazil, the financial community is actively interested in carbon trading, but Chinese banks have hardly any interest in it; and while the Chinese government takes an active interest in providing capacity to project developers, the Brazilian authorities see their role uniquely as guarantors of environmental integrity of emissions reductions projects. In the case of India, carbon governance offers specific features of patterns and interactions mostly because India strongly developed the Clean Development Mechanism and its market. This article proposes a study to the research and understanding of how exactly carbon governance works in the Indian case, knowing that India is the second largest host of CDM projects.

Integrated bioenergy and food production

Rising global energy needs and limited fossil fuel reserves have led to increased use of renewable energies. In Germany, this has entailed massive exploitation of agricultural biomass for biogas generation, associated with unsustainable farming practices. Organic agriculture not only reduces negative environmental impacts, organic farmers were also prime movers in anaerobic digestion (AD) in Germany. This study’s aim was to identify the structure, development, and characteristics of biogas production associated with organic farming systems in order to estimate further development, as well as energetic and associated agronomic potentials. Surveys were conducted among organic farms with AD technology. 144 biogas plants could be included in the analysis. Total installed electrical capacity was 30.8 MWel, accounting for only 0.8% of the total installed electrical capacity in the German biogas sector. Recently, larger plant types (>250 kWel) with increased use of (also purchased) energy crops have emerged. Farmers noticed increases in yields (22% on average) and quality of cash crops in arable farming through integrated biogas production. In conclusion, although the share of AD in organic farming is relatively small it can provide various complementary socio-ecological benefits such as the enhancement of food output through digestate fertilization without additional need for land, while simultaneously reducing greenhouse gas emissions from livestock manures and soils. However, to achieve this eco-functional intensification, AD systems and their management have to be well adapted to farm size and production focus and based primarily on residue biomass.

Portugal and air transport in the early 21st century

The Nature of air transport 1. Air transport is important • It is a big industry • It is vital to many industries and regions 2. It is multi-facited • Airlines • Airports • Air traffic control • Domestic and international 3. It is a network Industry • Portugal is part of Europe (legal fact) • Portugal is part of the world (globalization) 4. It is not wanted for its own sake • It “facilitates” and does not create 5. It has environmental implications • Noise • Greenhouse gas emissions

An observing system simulation experiment for climate monitoring with GNSS radio occulation data: setup and testbed study

The long-term stability, high accuracy, all-weather capability, high vertical resolution, and global coverage of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) suggests it as a promising tool for global monitoring of atmospheric temperature change. With the aim to investigate and quantify how well a GNSS RO observing system is able to detect climate trends, we are currently performing an (climate) observing system simulation experiment over the 25-year period 2001 to 2025, which involves quasi-realistic modeling of the neutral atmosphere and the ionosphere. We carried out two climate simulations with the general circulation model MAECHAM5 (Middle Atmosphere European Centre/Hamburg Model Version 5) of the MPI-M Hamburg, covering the period 2001–2025: One control run with natural variability only and one run also including anthropogenic forcings due to greenhouse gases, sulfate aerosols, and tropospheric ozone. On the basis of this, we perform quasi-realistic simulations of RO observables for a small GNSS receiver constellation (six satellites), state-of-the-art data processing for atmospheric profiles retrieval, and a statistical analysis of temperature trends in both the “observed” climatology and the “true” climatology. Here we describe the setup of the experiment and results from a test bed study conducted to obtain a basic set of realistic estimates of observational errors (instrument- and retrieval processing-related errors) and sampling errors (due to spatial-temporal undersampling). The test bed results, obtained for a typical summer season and compared to the climatic 2001–2025 trends from the MAECHAM5 simulation including anthropogenic forcing, were found encouraging for performing the full 25-year experiment. They indicated that observational and sampling errors (both contributing about 0.2 K) are consistent with recent estimates of these errors from real RO data and that they should be sufficiently small for monitoring expected temperature trends in the global atmosphere over the next 10 to 20 years in most regions of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). Inspection of the MAECHAM5 trends in different RO-accessible atmospheric parameters (microwave refractivity and pressure/geopotential height in addition to temperature) indicates complementary climate change sensitivity in different regions of the UTLS so that optimized climate monitoring shall combine information from all climatic key variables retrievable from GNSS RO data.

Decadal Prediction. Can It Be Skillful?

A new field of study, “decadal prediction,” is emerging in climate science. Decadal prediction lies between seasonal/interannual forecasting and longer-term climate change projections, and focuses on time-evolving regional climate conditions over the next 10–30 yr. Numerous assessments of climate information user needs have identified this time scale as being important to infrastructure planners, water resource managers, and many others. It is central to the information portfolio required to adapt effectively to and through climatic changes. At least three factors influence time-evolving regional climate at the decadal time scale: 1) climate change commitment (further warming as the coupled climate system comes into adjustment with increases of greenhouse gases that have already occurred), 2) external forcing, particularly from future increases of greenhouse gases and recovery of the ozone hole, and 3) internally generated variability. Some decadal prediction skill has been demonstrated to arise from the first two of these factors, and there is evidence that initialized coupled climate models can capture mechanisms of internally generated decadal climate variations, thus increasing predictive skill globally and particularly regionally. Several methods have been proposed for initializing global coupled climate models for decadal predictions, all of which involve global time-evolving three-dimensional ocean data, including temperature and salinity. An experimental framework to address decadal predictability/prediction is described in this paper and has been incorporated into the coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Model, phase 5 (CMIP5) experiments, some of which will be assessed for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). These experiments will likely guide work in this emerging field over the next 5 yr.

Observations of changes in marine boundary layer clouds

Recent research outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) highlights the response of marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds to warming associated with increasing greenhouse gases as a major contributor to uncertainties in model projections of climate change. Understanding how MBL clouds respond to increasing temperatures is hampered by the relative scarcity of marine surface observations and the difficulty of retrieving accurate parameters remotely from satellites. In this study we combine data from surface observations with that from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP), CloudSat and CALIPSO, with a view to investigating the spatial distribution and variations in MBL cloud fraction and cloud liquid water path (LWP). These results are then compared with the treatment of MBL clouds in the UK Met Office HadGEM models. Future work will assess how variations in LWP impact the top of atmosphere radiative energy balance using data from the Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget (GERB), in order to quantify the response of MBL clouds on interannual timescales to a changing climate

Decadal climate prediction (project GCEP)

Decadal prediction uses climate models forced by changing greenhouse gases, as in the International Panel for Climate Change, but unlike longer range predictions they also require initialization with observations of the current climate. In particular, the upper-ocean heat content and circulation have a critical influence. Decadal prediction is still in its infancy and there is an urgent need to understand the important processes that determine predictability on these timescales. We have taken the first Hadley Centre Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys) and implemented it on several NERC institute compute clusters in order to study a wider range of initial condition impacts on decadal forecasting, eventually including the state of the land and cryosphere. The eScience methods are used to manage submission and output from the many ensemble model runs required to assess predictive skill. Early results suggest initial condition skill may extend for several years, even over land areas, but this depends sensitively on the definition used to measure skill, and alternatives are presented. The Grid for Coupled Ensemble Prediction (GCEP) system will allow the UK academic community to contribute to international experiments being planned to explore decadal climate predictability.

Revised IR spectrum, radiative efficiency and global warming potential of nitrogen trifluoride

Nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) is an industrial gas used in the semiconductor industry as a plasma etchant and chamber cleaning gas. NF3 is an alternative to other potent greenhouse gases and its usage has increased markedly over the last decade. In recognition of its increased relevance and to aid planning of future usage we report an updated radiative efficiency and global warming potentials for NF3. Laboratory measurements give an integrated absorption cross section of 7.04 x 10(-17) cm(2) molecule(-1) cm(-1) over the spectral region 200 2000 cm(-1). The radiative efficiency is calculated to be 0.21 Wm(-2) ppbv(-1) and the 100 year GWP, relative to carbon dioxide, is 17200. These values are approximately 60% higher than previously published estimates, primarily reflecting the higher infrared absorption cross-sections reported here.