International Competitiveness of Manufacturing Firms in sub-Saharan Africa

As the success of East Asian countries has shown, labor-intensive industry is recognized to lead economic growth in the early stages of development, utilizing relatively low labor costs. This same growth process has already started in South and South East Asian LDCs since the mid-1990s. However, the manufacturing sector in sub-Saharan Africa has been underdeveloped and manufacturing exports, in particular labour-intensive goods, have stagnated. This paper investigates the international competitiveness of the African manufacturing sector and its determinants through an analytical survey of empirical studies and a comparison with Asian low income countries. Empirical evidences indicate that primary factors of competitiveness, namely productivity, labour cost and exchange rate are unfavorable in sub-Saharan Africa. Representative arguments attribute the weak competitiveness to problems in the business environment, factor endowment, and the exchange rate. However, careful review shows that labour cost is beyond the range explained by endowment and misalignment of exchange rates have been reduced in Africa. Moreover, comparison with Asian low income countries which have competitiveness in labour-intensive goods shows no difference in the quality of business environment, while the labour cost is significantly lower than sub-Saharan African countries. Although results should be considered tentative, high labour cost beyond endowment and conservative investment behavior emerge as important factors for the weak competitiveness in sub-Saharan Africa when controlling income level.

Monetary Systems in Developing Countries: An Unorthodox View

This paper analyzes some recent theoretical and practical evidence in terms of economic results of different exchange rate systems. It begins with a historical review and a summary of fixed versus flexible exchange rate systems. Then it compares the experiences of recent currency unions, mostly unilateral, and their relative economic performance during the past currency crises in Latin America, East Asia and Eastern Europe. A set of issues is discussed in order to weigh the overall costs and benefits for several economies. These issues include exchange rates, GDP performance, inflation rates and foreign reserves. The case of Argentina is also considered separately, comparing mostly seigniorage costs and interest-rate savings. The benefits and costs of the producers (central banks/governments) and the consumers (citizens) of money are discussed separately. Free banking is also considered in a fast-changing world where there will probably be fewer but better currencies. Not just the euro is a reality now, but maybe the "amero" and the "worldo" or the "mondo" very soon.

An Empirical Analysis of the Monetary Policy Reaction Function in India

This paper empirically analyzes India’s monetary policy reaction function by applying the Taylor (1993) rule and its open-economy version which employs dynamic OLS. The analysis uses monthly data from the period of April 1998 to December 2007. When the simple Taylor rule was estimated for India, the output gap coefficient was statistically significant, and its sign condition was found to be consistent with theoretical rationale; however, the same was not true of the inflation coefficient. When the Taylor rule with exchange rate was estimated, the coefficients of output gap and exchange rate had statistical significance with the expected signs, whereas the results of inflation remained the same as before. Therefore, the inflation rate has not played a role in the conduct of India’s monetary policy, and it is inappropriate for India to adopt an inflation-target type policy framework.

Financial Policies and Dynamic Game Simulation in Poland and Hungary

Recently, steady economic growth rates have been kept in Poland and Hungary. Money supplies are growing rather rapidly in these economies. In large, exchange rates have trends of depreciation. Then, exports and prices show the steady growth rates. It can be thought that per capita GDPs are in the same level and development stages are similar in these two countries. It is assumed that these two economies have the same export market and export goods are competing in it. If one country has an expansion of monetary policy, price increase and interest rate decrease. Then, exchange rate decrease. Exports and GDP will increase through this phenomenon. At the same time, this expanded monetary policy affects another country through the trade. This mutual relationship between two countries can be expressed by the Nash-equilibrium in the Game theory. In this paper, macro-econometric models of Polish and Hungarian economies are built and the Nash- equilibrium is introduced into them.

Liability dollarization and fear of floating

This paper explores the idea that fear of floating can be justified as an optimal discretionary monetary policy in a dollarized emerging economy. Specifically, I consider a small open economy in which intermediate goods importers borrow in foreign currency and face a credit constraint. In this economy, exchange rate depreciation not only worsens importers' net-worth but also increases the financing amount in domestic currency, therefore exaggerating their borrowing finance premium. Besides, because of high exchange rate pass-through into import prices, fluctuations in the exchange rate also have strong impacts on domestic prices and production. These effects, together, magnify the macroeconomic consequences of the floating exchange rate policy in response to external shocks. The paper shows that the floating exchange rate regime is dominated by the fixed exchange rate regime in the role of cushioning shocks and in welfare terms.

How does country risk matter for foreign direct investment?

In this paper, we aim to identify the political and financial risk components that matter most for the activities of multinational corporations. Our paper is the first paper to comprehensively examine the impact of various components of not only political risk but also financial risk on inward FDI, from both long-run and short-run perspectives. Using a sample of 93 countries (including 60 developing countries) for the period 1985-2007, we find that among the political risk components, government stability, socioeconomic conditions, investment profile, internal conflict, external conflict, corruption, religious tensions, democratic accountability, and ethnic tensions have a close association with FDI flows. In particular, socioeconomic conditions, investment profile, and external conflict appear to be the most influential components of political risk in attracting foreign investment. Among the financial risk components, only exchange rate stability yields statistically significant positive coefficients when estimated only for developing countries. In contrast, current account as a percentage of exports of goods and services, foreign debt as a percentage of GDP, net international liquidity as the number of months of import cover, and current account as a percentage of GDP yield negative coefficients in some specifications. Thus, multinationals do not seem to consider seriously the financial risk of the host country.

Determinants of inbound tourists in Cambodia : a dynamic panel data approach

Understanding the determinants of tourism demand is crucial for the tourism sector. This paper develops a dynamic panel model to examine the determinants of inbound tourists to Siem Reap airport, Phnom Penh airport, and land and waterway borders in Cambodia. Consistent with the consumer theory of tourism consumption, a 10% increase in the origin country GDP per capita is predicted to increase the number of tourist visits to Siem Reap airport by 5.8%. A 10% increase in the real exchange rate between the origin country and Cambodia is predicted to decrease the number of tourist visits by 0.89%. In contrast, the number of foreign tourists in a previous period has little effect on the number of foreign tourists in the current period. Additionally, the determinants are different by the mode of entry to Cambodia.

Electric current of an electrified jet issuing from a long metallic tube.

This paper presents an analysis of the transport of electric current in a jet of an electrically conducting liquid discharging from a metallic tube into a gas or a vacuum, and subject to an electric field due to a high voltage applied between the tube and a far electrode. The flow, the surface charge and the electric field are computed in the current transfer region of the jet, where conduction current in the liquid becomes surface current due to the convection of electric charge accumulated at its surface. The electric current computed as a function of the flow rate of the liquid injected through the tube increases first as the square root of this flow rate, levels to a nearly constant value when the flow rate is increased and finally sets to a linear increase when the flow rate is further increased. The current increases linearly with the applied voltage at small and moderate values of this variable, and faster than linearly at high voltages. The characteristic length and structure of the current transfer region are determined. Order-of-magnitude estimates for jets which are only weakly stretched by the electric stresses are worked out that qualitatively account for some of the numerical results.

UMA ANÁLISE DA RELAÇÃO ENTRE VARIÁVEIS MACROECONÔMICAS E O COMPORTAMENTO DAS AÇÕES DE MAIOR LIQUIDEZ DO ÍNDICE IBOVESPA

As ações de maior liquidez do índice IBOVESPA, refletem o comportamento das ações de um modo geral, bem como a relação das variáveis macroeconômicas em seu comportamento e estão entre as mais negociadas no mercado de capitais brasileiro. Desta forma, pode-se entender que há reflexos de fatores que impactam as empresas de maior liquidez que definem o comportamento das variáveis macroeconômicas e que o inverso também é uma verdade, oscilações nos fatores macroeconômicos também afetam as ações de maior liquidez, como IPCA, PIB, SELIC e Taxa de Câmbio. O estudo propõe uma análise da relação existente entre variáveis macroeconômicas e o comportamento das ações de maior liquidez do índice IBOVESPA, corroborando com estudos que buscam entender a influência de fatores macroeconômicos sobre o preço de ações e contribuindo empiricamente com a formação de portfólios de investimento. O trabalho abrangeu o período de 2008 a 2014. Os resultados concluíram que a formação de carteiras, visando a proteção do capital investido, deve conter ativos com correlação negativa em relação às variáveis estudadas, o que torna possível a composição de uma carteira com risco reduzido.

An in vitro study of the dynamic features of the major histocompatibility complex class I complex relevant to its role as a versatile peptide-receptive molecule

The major histocompatibility complex class I complex consists of a heavy chain and a light chain (β2-microglobulin, β2m), which assemble with a short endogenously derived peptide in the endoplasmic reticulum. The class I peptide can be directly exchanged, either at the cell surface or, as recently described, in vesicles of the endocytic compartments, thus allowing exogenous peptides to enter the class I presentation pathway. To probe the interactions between the components of the class I molecule, we analyzed the exchange of peptide and β2m by using purified, recombinant H2-Kb/peptide complexes in a cell-free in vitro system. The exchange of competitor peptide was primarily dependent on the off-rate of the original peptide in the class I binding groove. Peptide exchange was not enhanced by the presence of exogenous β2m, as exchange occurred to the same extent in its absence. Thus, the exchange of peptide and β2m are independent events. The exchange rate of β2m also was not affected by the dissociation rates of the original peptides. Furthermore, peptides could substantially exchange into class I molecules over a pH range of 5.5 to 7.5, conditions prevalent in certain endocytic compartments. We conclude that the dynamic properties of the components of class I molecules explain its function as a highly peptide-receptive molecule. The major histocompatibility complex class I can readily receive peptides independent of the presence of exogenous β2m, even at a low pH. Such properties are relevant to class I peptide acquisition, which can occur at the cell surface, as well as in specialized endosomes.

Regulation of Apoplastic NH4+ Concentration in Leaves of Oilseed Rape1

Regulation of apoplastic NH4+ concentration in leaves of oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.) was studied using a vacuum-infiltration technique that allowed controlled manipulations of the apoplastic solution. In leaves infiltrated with NH4+-free solution, the apoplastic NH4+ concentration returned in less than 1.5 min to the preinfiltration level of 0.8 mm. Infiltrated 15NH4+ was rapidly diluted by 14NH4+/14NH3 effluxed from the cell. The exchange rate of 15N/14N over the apoplast due to combined 14N efflux from the symplast and 15N influx from the apoplastic solution was 29.4 μmol g−1 fresh weight h−1 between 0 and 5 min after infiltration. The net uptake of NH4+ into the leaf cells increased linearly with apoplastic NH4+ concentrations between 2 and 10 mm and could be partially inhibited by the channel inhibitors La3+ and tetraethylammonium and by Na+ and K+. When apoplastic pH increased from 5.0 to 8.0, the steady-state apoplastic NH4+ concentration decreased from 1.0 to 0.3 mm. Increasing temperature increased the rate of NH4+ net uptake and reduced the apoplastic steady-state NH4+ concentration. We conclude that the apoplastic solution in leaves of oilseed rape constitutes a highly dynamic NH4+ pool.

Estimating and forecasting generalized fractional Long memory stochastic volatility models

In recent years fractionally differenced processes have received a great deal of attention due to its flexibility in financial applications with long memory. This paper considers a class of models generated by Gegenbauer polynomials, incorporating the long memory in stochastic volatility (SV) components in order to develop the General Long Memory SV (GLMSV) model. We examine the statistical properties of the new model, suggest using the spectral likelihood estimation for long memory processes, and investigate the finite sample properties via Monte Carlo experiments. We apply the model to three exchange rate return series. Overall, the results of the out-of-sample forecasts show the adequacy of the new GLMSV model.

Adsorption and first stages of polymerization of aniline on platinum single crystal electrodes

The present communication studies the adsorption of aniline on platinum single crystal electrodes and the electrochemical properties of the first layers of polyaniline(PANI) grown on those platinum surfaces. The adsorption process was studied in aqueous acidic solution (0.1 M HClO4) and the electrochemical properties of thin films of PANI in both aqueous (1 M HClO4) and non-aqueous media (tetrabutyl ammonium hexafluorophosphate (TBAPF6) with additions of methanesulphonic acid in acetonitrile). First of all, it was found that the adsorption of aniline on platinum single crystal surfaces is a surface sensitive process, and even more important that the adsorption features found at low concentrations (5 × 10−5 M) can be directly correlated to the electrochemical properties of thin films of PANI in the very early stages of polymerization. The Pt(1 1 0) surface was found to be more suitable to obtain polymers with more reversible redox transitions when studied in aqueous media (1 M HClO4). This is in good agreement with the higher polymerization rates found on this surface compared to Pt(1 0 0) and Pt(1 1 1). Finally the differences in ionic exchange rate were greatly enhanced when they were studied in organic media. The AC 250 Hz response in the case of the thin films synthesized on Pt(1 1 0) is about twice greater than that obtained in the other basal planes using polymer layers with the same thickness.

International Capital Flows and Monetary Policy Spillovers

This dissertation examines the drivers and implications of international capital flows. The overarching motivation is the observation that countries not at the centre of global financial markets are subject to considerable spillovers from centre countries, notably from their monetary policy. I present new empirical evidence on the determinants of the observed patterns of international capital flows and monetary policy spillovers, and study their effect on both financial markets and the real economy. In Chapter 2 I provide evidence on the determinants of a puzzling negative correlation observed between productivity growth and net capital inflows to developing and emerging market economies (EMEs) since 1980. By disaggregating net capital inflows into their gross components, I show that this negative correlation is explained by capital outflows related to purchases of very liquid assets from the fastest growing countries. My results suggest a desire for international portfolio diversification in liquid assets by fast growing countries is driving much of the original puzzle. In the reminder of my dissertation I pivot to study the foreign characteristics that drive international capital flows and monetary policy spillovers, with a particular focus on the role of unconventional monetary policy in the United States (U.S.). In Chapter 3 I show that a significant portion of the heterogeneity in EMEs' asset price adjustment following the quantitative easing operations by the Federal Reserve (the Fed) during 2008-2014 can be explained by the degree of bilateral capital market frictions between these countries and the U.S. This is true even after accounting for capital controls, exchange rate regimes, and domestic monetary policies. Chapter 4, co-authored with Michal Ksawery Popiel, studies unconventional monetary policy in a small open economy, looking specifically at the case of Canada since the global financial crisis. We quantify the effect Canadian unconventional monetary policy shocks had on the real economy, while carefully controlling for and quantifying spillovers from U.S. unconventional monetary policy. Our results indicate that the Bank of Canada's unconventional monetary policy increased Canadian output significantly from 2009-2010, but that spillovers from the Fed's policy were even more important for increasing Canadian output after 2008.

Can Europe recover without credit? Bruegel Policy Contribution 2013/03, 15 February 2013

• Data from 135 countries covering five decades suggests that creditless recoveries, in which the stock of real credit does not return to the pre-crisis level for three years after the GDP trough, are not rare and are characterised by remarkable real GDP growth rates: 4.7 percent per year in middle-income countries and 3.2 percent per year in high-income countries. • However, the implications of these historical episodes for the current European situation are limited, for two main reasons: • First, creditless recoveries are much less common in high-income countries, than in low-income countries which are financially undeveloped. European economies heavily depend on bank loans and research suggests that loan supply played a major role in the recent weak credit performance of Europe. There are reasons to believe that, despite various efforts, normal lending has not yet been restored.Limited loan supply could be disruptive for the European economic recovery andthere has been only a minor substitution of bank loans with debt securities. • Second, creditless recoveries were associated with significant real exchange rate depreciation, which has hardly occurred so far in most of Europe. This stylised fact suggests that it might be difficult to re-establish economic growth in the absence of sizeable real exchange rate depreciation, if credit growth does not return.