Modelling the disability severity score in motor insurance claims: an application to the Spanish case

Bodily injury claims have the greatest impact on the claim costs of motor insurance companies. The disability severity of motor claims is assessed in numerous European countries by means of score systems. In this paper a zero inflated generalized Poisson regression model is implemented to estimate the disability severity score of victims in-volved in motor accidents on Spanish roads. We show that the injury severity estimates may be automatically converted into financial terms by insurers at any point of the claim handling process. As such, the methodology described may be used by motor insurers operating in the Spanish market to monitor the size of bodily injury claims. By using insurance data, various applications are presented in which the score estimate of disability severity is of value to insurers, either for computing the claim compensation or for claim reserve purposes.

Optimización y aproximación al problema de la regresión simbólica a través de Straight Line Programs (SLP's) y algoritmos genéticos : Entrenamiento genético de SLP's

El problema de la regresión simbólica consiste en el aprendizaje, a partir de un conjunto muestra de datos obtenidos experimentalmente, de una función desconocida. Los métodos evolutivos han demostrado su eficiencia en la resolución de instancias de dicho problema. En este proyecto se propone una nueva estrategia evolutiva, a través de algoritmos genéticos, basada en una nueva estructura de datos denominada Straight Line Program (SLP) y que representa en este caso expresiones simbólicas. A partir de un SLP universal, que depende de una serie de parámetros cuya especialización proporciona SLP's concretos del espacio de búsqueda, la estrategia trata de encontrar los parámetros óptimos para que el SLP universal represente la función que mejor se aproxime al conjunto de puntos muestra. De manera conceptual, este proyecto consiste en un entrenamiento genético del SLP universal, utilizando los puntos muestra como conjunto de entrenamiento, para resolver el problema de la regresión simbólica.

Characterisation of pigment particles by scanning electron microscope and image analysis programs

Coating and filler pigments have strong influence to the properties of the paper. Filler content can be even over 30 % and pigment content in coating is about 85-95 weight percent. The physical and chemical properties of the pigments are different and the knowledge of these properties is important for optimising of optical and printing properties of the paper. The size and shape of pigment particles can be measured by different analysers which can be based on sedimentation, laser diffraction, changes in electric field etc. In this master's thesis was researched particle properties especially by scanning electron microscope (SEM) and image analysis programs. Research included nine pigments with different particle size and shape. Pigments were analysed by two image analysis programs (INCA Feature and Poikki), Coulter LS230 (laser diffraction) and SediGraph 5100 (sedimentation). The results were compared to perceive the effect of particle shape to the performance of the analysers. Only image analysis programs gave parameters of the particle shape. One part of research was also the sample preparation for SEM. Individual particles should be separated and distinct in ideal sample. Analysing methods gave different results but results from image analysis programs corresponded even to sedimentation or to laser diffraction depending on the particle shape. Detailed analysis of the particle shape required high magnification in SEM, but measured parameters described very well the shape of the particles. Large particles (ecd~1 µm) could be used also in 3D-modelling which enabled the measurement of the thickness of the particles. Scanning electron microscope and image analysis programs were effective and multifunctional tools for particle analyses. Development and experience will devise the usability of analysing method in routine use.

Impact of multimorbidity on disability and quality of life in the spanish older population

BACKGROUND: Population aging is closely related to high prevalence of chronic conditions in developed countries. In this context, health care policies aim to increase life span cost-effectively while maintaining quality of life and functional ability. There is still, however, a need for further understanding of how chronic conditions affect these health aspects. The aim of this paper is to assess the individual and combined impact of chronic physical and mental conditions on quality of life and disability in Spain, and secondly to show gender trends. METHODS: Cross-sectional data were collected from the COURAGE study. A total of 3,625 participants over 50 years old from Spain were included. Crude and adjusted multiple linear regressions were conducted to detect associations between individual chronic conditions and disability, and between chronic conditions and quality of life. Separate models were used to assess the influence of the number of diseases on the same variables. Additional analogous regressions were performed for males and females. RESULTS: All chronic conditions except hypertension were statistically associated with poor results in quality of life and disability. Depression, anxiety and stroke were found to have the greatest impact on outcomes. The number of chronic conditions was associated with substantially lower quality of life [β for 4+ diseases: -18.10 (-20.95,-15.25)] and greater disability [β for 4+ diseases: 27.64 (24.99,30.29]. In general, women suffered from higher rates of multimorbidity and poorer results in quality of life and disability. CONCLUSIONS: Chronic conditions impact greatly on quality of life and disability in the older Spanish population, especially when co-occurring diseases are added. Multimorbidity considerations should be a priority in the development of future health policies focused on quality of life and disability. Further studies would benefit from an expanded selection of diseases. Policies should also deal with gender idiosyncrasy in certain cases.

The burden of disease in Spain: results from the global burden of disease study 2010

BackgroundWe herein evaluate the Spanish population¿s trends in health burden by comparing results of two Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Studies (the GBD studies) performed 20 years apart.MethodsData is part of the GBD study for 1990 and 2010. We present results for mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for the Spanish population. Uncertainty intervals for all measures have been estimated.ResultsNon-communicable diseases accounted for 3,703,400 (95% CI 3,648,270¿3,766,720) (91.3%) of 4,057,400 total deaths, in the Spanish population. Cardiovascular and circulatory diseases were the main cause of mortality among non-communicable diseases (34.7% of total deaths), followed by neoplasms (27.1% of total deaths). Neoplasms, cardiovascular and circulatory diseases, and chronic respiratory diseases were the top three leading causes for YLLs. The most important causes of DALYs in 2010 were neoplasms, cardiovascular and circulatory diseases, musculoskeletal disorders, and mental and behavioral disorders.ConclusionsMortality and disability in Spain have become even more linked to non-communicable diseases over the last years, following the worldwide trends. Cardiovascular and circulatory diseases, neoplasms, mental and behavioral disorders, and neurological disorders are the leading causes of mortality and disability. Specific focus is needed from health care providers and policy makers to develop health promotion and health education programs directed towards non-communicable disorders.

The Pursued Benefits of Customer Loyalty Programs

Customer loyalty programs have increased in recent decades and customers are members in several loyalty programs. Loyalty programs are seen as a tool of exploiting customer relationship management with the aim of long-term, profitable customer relationships. Companies have created such a market where customers are rewarded automatically, even if they are disloyal. In addition, companies are struggling as they try to motivate customers to purchase more and make more frequent visits.

Survival and Quality of Life among Patients with Severe Lower Extremity Peripheral Arterial Disease

Lower extremity peripheral arterial disease (PAD) is associated with decreased functional status, diminished quality of life (QoL), amputation, myocardial infarction, stroke, and death. Nevertheless, public awareness of PAD as a morbid and mortal disease is low. The aim of this study was to assess the incidence of major lower extremity amputation due to PAD, the extent of reamputations, and survival after major lower extremity amputation (LEA) in a population based PAD patient cohort. Furthermore, the aim was to assess the functional capacity in patients with LEA, and the QoL after lower extremity revascularization and major amputation. All 210 amputees due to PAD in 1998–2002 and all 519 revascularized patients in 1998–2003 were explored. 59 amputees alive in 2004 were interviewed using a structured questionnaire of QoL. Two of each amputee age-, gender- and domicile-matched controls filled in and returned postal self-administered QoL questionnaire as well as 231 revascularized PAD patients (the amount of these patients who engaged themselves to the study), and one control person for each patient completed postal self-administered QoL questionnaire. The incidence rate of major LEA was 24.1/100 000 person-years and it was considerably high during the years studied. The one-month mortality rate was 21%, 52% at one-year, and the overall mortality rate was 80%. When comparing the one-year mortality risk of amputees, LEAs were associated with a 7.4-fold annual mortality risk compared with the reference population in Turku. Twenty-two patients (10%) had ipsilateral transversions from BK to AK amputation. Fifty patients (24%) ended up with a contralateral major LEA within two to four amputation operations. Three bilateral amputations were performed at the first major LEA operation. Of the 51 survivors returning home after their first major LEA, 36 (71%) received a prosthesis; (16/36, 44%) and were able to walk both in- and outdoors. Of the 68 patients who were discharged to institutional care, three (4%) had a prosthesis one year after LEA. Both amputees and revascularized patients had poor physical functioning and significantly more depressive symptoms than their controls. Depressive symptoms were more common in the institutionalized amputees than the home-dwelling amputees. The surviving amputees and their controls had similar life satisfaction. The amputees felt themselves satisfied and contented, whether or not they lived in long-term care or at home. PAD patients who had undergone revascularizations had poorer QoL than their controls. The revascularized patients’ responses on their perceived physical functioning gave an impression that these patients are in a declining life cycle and that revascularizations, even when successful, may not be sufficient to improve the overall function. It is possible that addressing rehabilitation issues earlier in the care may produce a more positive functional outcome. Depressive symptoms should be recognized and thoroughly considered at the same time the patients are recovering from their revascularization operation. Also primary care should develop proper follow-up, and community organizations should have exercise groups for those who are able to return home, since they very often live alone. In rehabilitation programs we should consider not only physical disability assessment but also QoL.

Experimental alternatives for evaluation of progenies and clones in eucalyptus breeding programs

The feasibility of using augmented block designs and spatial analysis methods for early stage selection in eucalyptus breeding programs was tested. A total of 113 half-sib progenies of Eucalyptus urophylla and eight clones were evaluated in an 11 x 11 triple lattice experiment at two locations: Posto da Mata (Bahia, Brazil) and São Mateus (Minas Gerais, Brazil). Four checks were randomly allocated within each block. Plots consisted of 15 m long rows containing 6 plants spaced 3 m apart. The girth at breast height (cm/plant) was evaluated at 19 and 26 months of age. Variance analyses were performed according to the following methods: lattice design, randomized complete block design, augmented block design, Papadakis method, moving means method, and check plots. Comparisons among different methods were based on the magnitude of experimental errors and precision of the estimates of genetic and phenotypic parameters. General results indicated that augmented block design is useful to evaluate progenies and clones in early selection in eucalyptus breeding programs using moderate and low selection intensities. However, this design is not suitable for estimating genetic and phenotypic parameters due to its low precision. Check plots, nearest neighbour, Papadakis (1937), and moving means methods were efficient in removing the heterogeneity within blocks. These efficiencies were compared to that in lattice analysis for estimation of genetic and phenotypic parameters.

Professional development among educators pursuing a B.Ed. program in special education in Tanzania : a study of motives and perceived outcomes

Implementation of different policies and plans aiming at providing education for all is a challenge in Tanzania. The need for educators and professionals with relevant knowledge and qualifications in special education is substantial. Teacher education does not equip educators with sufficient knowledge and skills in special education and professional development programs in special education are few in number. Up to 2005 no degree programs in special education at university level were available in Tanzania. The B.Ed. Special Education program offered by the Open University of Tanzania in collaboration with Åbo Akademi University in Finland was one of the efforts aimed at addressing the big national need for teachers and other professionals with degree qualifications in special education. This pilot program offered unique possibilities to study professional development in Tanzania. The research group in this study consisted of the group of students who participated in the degree program 2005-2007. The study is guided by three theoretical perspectives: individual, social and societal. The individual perspective emphasizes psychological factors as motives, motivation, achievement, self-directed behavior and personal growth. Within social perspective, professional development is viewed as situated within the social and cultural context. The third perspective, the societal, focuses on change, reforms, innovations and transformation of school systems and societies. Accordingly, professional development is viewed as an individual, social and societal phenomenon. The overall aim of the study is to explore the participants’ motives for participating in a B.Ed. Special Education program and the perceived outcomes of the program in terms of professional development. In order to achieve the objectives of the study, a case study approach was adopted. Questionnaires and semi-structured interviews were administered in three waves between January 2007 and February 2009 to the 35 educators participating in the B.Ed. Special Education program. The findings of the study reveal that the participants expressed motives which were related to job performance, knowledge, skills, academic degree and career. Also altruistic motives were expressed by the participants in terms of helping and supporting students with special needs and their communities. The perceived outcomes of the program were in line with the expressed motives. However, the results indicate that the participants also learned new skills, as interaction skills and guidance and counseling skills. Increased self-confidence was also mentioned as an outcome. The participants also got deepened understanding of disability issues. In addition, they learned strategies for creating awareness of persons with disability in the communities. Thus the findings of the study indicate positive outcomes of the program in terms of professional development. The conclusion of the study is that individual, social and societal factors interact when it comes to explaining why Tanzanian educators in special education choose to pursue a degree program in special education. The individual motives, as increased knowledge and better prospects of career development interact with the social and societal motives to help and support vulnerable student groups. The study contributes to increased understanding of the complexity of professional development and of the realities educators meet when educational reforms are implemented in a developing country.

Translation and Cross-Cultural Adaptation of the Lymphoedema Functioning, Disability and Health Questionnaire for Lower Limb Lymphoedema into Portuguese Language

Objective The objective of the study is to describe the process of translation and cross-cultural adaptation of the Lymphoedema Functioning, Disability, and Health Questionnaire for Lower Limb Lymphoedema (Lymph-ICF-LL) into (Brazilian) Portuguese. Methods The process was comprised of five steps - translation, back translation, revision by an expert panel, pretest, and final translation. The first translation was performed by two professionals of the healthcare area, and the back translation was performed by two translators. An expert panel assessed the questions for semantics and idiomatic, cultural, and conceptual equivalence. The pretest was conducted on 10 patients with lymphedema. Results Small differences were identified between the translated and back-translated versions, which were revised by the expert panel. The patients included in the pretest found 10 questions difficult to understand; these questions were reassessed by the same expert panel. Conclusion The results of the translation and cross-cultural adaptation of the Lymph- ICF-LL resulted in a Brazilian Portuguese version, which still requires validation with various samples of the local population.

The Changing Role of the CIO: Developing Skills by Means of Postgraduate Educational Programs

The objective of this research was to identify the skills and competences required by Chief Information Officers in their professional life and whether these skills can be developed by means of postgraduate education pro-grams. Although the changing role of the CIO has been studied for years by the academia, the ways of necessary skills development have not been paid significant attention. In order to obtain understanding of the topic and its main issues qualitative method was implemented and questionnaires and interviews were conducted with CIOs and other C-level executives to-gether with analysis of the curricula of postgraduate educational programs in the field of business designed for executives. Business skills and knowledge along with developed communication and leadership skills are among the most discussed and required from CIOs. According to the collected data and its further analysis, although the most important competences of an IT executive are technological, the im-portance of business related skills is emphasized by the majority of re-spondents and supported by the existing theory. Postgraduate educational programs have curricula that can develop the required competences, alt-hough not equally.

Computer programs for analysis of droplets sprayed on water sensitive papers

The use of water-sensitive papers is an important tool for assessing the quality of pesticide application on crops, but manual analysis is laborious and time-consuming. Thus, this study aimed to evaluate and compare the results obtained from four software programs for spray droplet analysis in different scanned images of water-sensitive papers. After spraying, papers with four droplet deposition patterns (varying droplet spectra and densities) were analyzed manually and by means of the following computer programs: CIR, e-Sprinkle, DepositScan and Conta-Gotas. The diameter of the volume and number medians and the number of droplets per target area were studied. There is a strong correlation between the values measured using the different programs and the manual analysis, but there is a great difference between the numerical values measured for the same paper. Thus, it is not advisable to compare results obtained from different programs.

Social disability of Brazilian mood disorder patients

Mood disorders cause many social problems, often involving family relationships. Few studies are available in the literature comparing patients with bipolar, unipolar, dysthymic, and double depressive disorders concerning these aspects. In the present study, demographic and disease data were collected using a specifically prepared questionnaire. Social adjustment was assessed using the Disability Adjustment Scale and family relationships were evaluated using the Global Assessment of Relational Functioning Scale. One hundred patients under treatment for at least 6 months were evaluated at the Psychiatric Outpatient Clinic of the Botucatu School of Medicine, UNESP. Most patients were women (82%) more than 50 (49%) years old with at least two years of follow-up, with little schooling (62% had less than 4 years), and of low socioeconomic level. Logistic regression analysis showed that a diagnosis of unipolar disorder (P = 0.003, OR = 0.075, CI = 0.014-0.403) and dysthymia (P = 0.001, OR = 0.040, CI = 0.006-0.275) as well as family relationships (P = 0.002, OR = 0.953, CI = 0914-0.992) played a significant role in social adjustment. Unipolar and dysthymic patients presented better social adjustment than bipolar and double depressive patients (P < 0.001), results that were not due to social class. These patients, treated at a teaching hospital, may represent the severest mood disorder cases. Evaluations were made knowing the diagnosis of the patients, which might also have influenced some of the results. Social disabilities among mood disorder patients are very frequent and intensive.