A clarion call for action based on refined DALY estimates for South Africa

Initial estimates of the burden of disease in South Africa in 20001 have been revised on the basis of additional data to estimate the disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for single causes for the first time in South Africa. The findings highlight the fact that despite uncertainty in the estimates, they provide important information to guide public health responses to improve the health of the nation...

The contribution of major depression to the global burden of ischemic heart disease : a comparative risk assessment

Background Cardiovascular disease and mental health both hold enormous public health importance, both ranking highly in results of the recent Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010). For the first time, the GBD 2010 has systematically and quantitatively assessed major depression as an independent risk factor for the development of ischemic heart disease (IHD) using comparative risk assessment methodology. Methods A pooled relative risk (RR) was calculated from studies identified through a systematic review with strict inclusion criteria designed to provide evidence of independent risk factor status. Accepted case definitions of depression include diagnosis by a clinician or by non-clinician raters adhering to Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) or International Classification of Diseases (ICD) classifications. We therefore refer to the exposure in this paper as major depression as opposed to the DSM-IV category of major depressive disorder (MDD). The population attributable fraction (PAF) was calculated using the pooled RR estimate. Attributable burden was calculated by multiplying the PAF by the underlying burden of IHD estimated as part of GBD 2010. Results The pooled relative risk of developing IHD in those with major depression was 1.56 (95% CI 1.30 to 1.87). Globally there were almost 4 million estimated IHD disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), which can be attributed to major depression in 2010; 3.5 million years of life lost and 250,000 years of life lived with a disability. These findings highlight a previously underestimated mortality component of the burden of major depression. As a proportion of overall IHD burden, 2.95% (95% CI 1.48 to 4.46%) of IHD DALYs were estimated to be attributable to MDD in 2010. Eastern Europe and North Africa/Middle East demonstrate the highest proportion with Asia Pacific, high income representing the lowest. Conclusions The present work comprises the most robust systematic review of its kind to date. The key finding that major depression may be responsible for approximately 3% of global IHD DALYs warrants assessment for depression in patients at high risk of developing IHD or at risk of a repeat IHD event.

The epidemiological modelling of major depressive disorder : application for the global burden of disease study 2010

Background Although the detrimental impact of major depressive disorder (MDD) at the individual level has been described, its global epidemiology remains unclear given limitations in the data. Here we present the modelled epidemiological profile of MDD dealing with heterogeneity in the data, enforcing internal consistency between epidemiological parameters and making estimates for world regions with no empirical data. These estimates were used to quantify the burden of MDD for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010). Method Analyses drew on data from our existing literature review of the epidemiology of MDD. DisMod-MR, the latest version of the generic disease modelling system redesigned as a Bayesian meta-regression tool, derived prevalence by age, year and sex for 21 regions. Prior epidemiological knowledge, study- and country-level covariates adjusted sub-optimal raw data. Results There were over 298 million cases of MDD globally at any point in time in 2010, with the highest proportion of cases occurring between 25 and 34 years. Global point prevalence was very similar across time (4.4% (95% uncertainty: 4.2–4.7%) in 1990, 4.4% (4.1–4.7%) in 2005 and 2010), but higher in females (5.5% (5.0–6.0%) compared to males (3.2% (3.0–3.6%) in 2010. Regions in conflict had higher prevalence than those with no conflict. The annual incidence of an episode of MDD followed a similar age and regional pattern to prevalence but was about one and a half times higher, consistent with an average duration of 37.7 weeks. Conclusion We were able to integrate available data, including those from high quality surveys and sub-optimal studies, into a model adjusting for known methodological sources of heterogeneity. We were also able to estimate the epidemiology of MDD in regions with no available data. This informed GBD 2010 and the public health field, with a clearer understanding of the global distribution of MDD.

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to smoking in South Africa in 2000

Objectives To quantify the burden of disease attributable to smoking in South Africa for 2000. Design The absolute difference between observed lung cancer death rate and the level in non-smokers, adjusted for occupational and indoor exposure to lung carcinogens, was used to estimate the proportion of lung cancer deaths attributable to smoking and the smoking impact ratio (SIR). The SIR was substituted for smoking prevalence in the attributable fraction formula for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and cancers to allow for the long lag between exposure and outcome. Assuming a shorter lag between exposure and disease, the current prevalence of smoking was used to estimate the population-attributable fractions (PAF) for the other outcomes. Relative risks (RR) from the American Cancer Society cancer prevention study (CPS-II) were used to calculate PAF. Setting South Africa. Outcome measures Deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to lung and other cancers, COPD, cardiovascular conditions, respiratory tuberculosis, and other respiratory and medical conditions. Results Smoking caused between 41 632 and 46 656 deaths in South Africa, accounting for 8.0 - 9.0% of deaths and 3.7 - 4.3% of DALYs in 2000. Smoking ranked third (after unsafe sex/sexually transmitted disease and high blood pressure) in terms of mortality among 17 risk factors evaluated. Three times as many males as females died from smoking. Lung cancer had the largest attributable fraction due to smoking. However, cardiovascular diseases accounted for the largest proportion of deaths attributed to smoking. Conclusion Cigarette smoking accounts for a large burden of preventable disease in South Africa. While the government has taken bold legislative action to discourage tobacco use since 1994, it still remains a major public health priority.

Epidemiology and risk factors of oral cancer in South Africa

Head and neck cancers are some of the leading cancers in the coloured and black South African male population and the perception exists that the incidence rates are rising. Aims: To determine the standardised morbidity rates and some of the risk factors for oral cancer in South Africa. Methods: Using histologically verified data from the National Cancer Registry, the age standardised incidence rates (ASIR) and life-time risks (LR) of oral cancer in South Africa were calculated for 1988-1991.2. In an ongoing case control study (1995 +) among black patients in Johannesburg/Soweto, adjusted odds ratios for developing oral cancers in relation to tobacco and alcohol consumption were calculated. Results: Coloured males vs. females: ASIR 13.13 vs. 3.5 (/100,000/year), LR 1:65 vs. 1:244. Black males vs. females: ASIR 9.06 vs. 1.75, LR 1:86 and 1:455. White males vs. females: ASIR 8.06 vs. 3.18, LR 1:104 vs. 1:278. Asian males vs. females: ASIR 5.24 vs. 6.66, LR 1:161 vs. 1:125. The odds ratio for oral cancer in black males in relation to smoking was 7.0 (95% CI 3.0-14.6) and daily alcohol consumption 1.3 (95% CI 0.6-2.8). In black females the odds ratios in relation to smoking were 3.9 (95% CI 1.7 8.9) and daily alcohol consumption 1.7(95% CI 0.7-4.1). Conclusions: The risk factors for oral cancer in South Africa are multiple and gender discrepancies in ASIR and LR signal differences in exposure to carcinogens. It is unclear whether the incidence of oral cancers will rise in the future.

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to excess body weight in South Africa in 2000

Objective. To estimate the burden of disease attributable to excess body weight using the body mass index (BMI), by age and sex, in South Africa in 2000. Design. World Health Organization comparative risk assessment (CRA) methodology was followed. Re-analysis of the 1998 South Africa Demographic and Health Survey data provided mean BMI estimates by age and sex. Populationattributable fractions were calculated and applied to revised burden of disease estimates. Monte Carlo simulation-modelling techniques were used for the uncertainty analysis. Setting. South Africa. Subjects. Adults 30 years of age. Outcome measures. Deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from ischaemic heart disease, ischaemic stroke, hypertensive disease, osteoarthritis, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and selected cancers. Results. Overall, 87% of type 2 diabetes, 68% of hypertensive disease, 61% of endometrial cancer, 45% of ischaemic stroke, 38% of ischaemic heart disease, 31% of kidney cancer, 24% of osteoarthritis, 17% of colon cancer, and 13% of postmenopausal breast cancer were attributable to a BMI 21 kg/m2. Excess body weight is estimated to have caused 36 504 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 31 018 - 38 637) or 7% (95% uncertainty interval 6.0 - 7.4%) of all deaths in 2000, and 462 338 DALYs (95% uncertainty interval 396 512 - 478 847) or 2.9% of all DALYs (95% uncertainty interval 2.4 - 3.0%). The burden in females was approximately double that in males. Conclusions. This study shows the importance of recognising excess body weight as a major risk to health, particularly among females, highlighting the need to develop, implement and evaluate comprehensive interventions to achieve lasting change in the determinants and impact of excess body weight.

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to physical inactivity in South Africa in 2000

Objectives. To quantify the burden of disease attributable to physical inactivity in persons 15 years or older, by age group and sex, in South Africa for 2000. Design. The global comparative risk assessment (CRA) methodology of the World Health Organization was followed to estimate the disease burden attributable to physical inactivity. Levels of physical activity for South Africa were obtained from the World Health Survey 2003. A theoretical minimum risk exposure of zero, associated outcomes, relative risks, and revised burden of disease estimates were used to calculate population-attributable fractions and the burden attributed to physical inactivity. Monte Carlo simulation-modelling techniques were used for the uncertainty analysis. Setting. South Africa. Subjects. Adults ≥ 15 years. Outcome measures. Deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from ischaemic heart disease, ischaemic stroke, breast cancer, colon cancer, and type 2 diabetes mellitus. Results. Overall in adults ≥ 15 years in 2000, 30% of ischaemic heart disease, 27% of colon cancer, 22% of ischaemic stroke, 20% of type 2 diabetes, and 17% of breast cancer were attributable to physical inactivity. Physical inactivity was estimated to have caused 17 037 (95% uncertainty interval 11 394 - 20 407), or 3.3% (95% uncertainty interval 2.2 - 3.9%) of all deaths in 2000, and 176 252 (95% uncertainty interval 133 733 - 203 628) DALYs, or 1.1% (95% uncertainty interval 0.8 - 1.3%) of all DALYs in 2000. Conclusions. Compared with other regions and the global average, South African adults have a particularly high prevalence of physical inactivity. In terms of attributable deaths, physical inactivity ranked 9th compared with other risk factors, and 12th in terms of DALYs. There is a clear need to assess why South Africans are particularly inactive, and to ensure that physical activity/inactivity is addressed as a national health priority.

Urban Form at the Edge : Proceedings from ISUF 2013 [Volume 1]

Urban morphology as a field of study has developed primarily in Europe and North America, and more recently emerging as a recurrent topic in China and South America. As a counterpoint to this centric view, the ISUF 2013 conference explored aspects of ‘urban form at the edge’. In particular the conference examined ‘off centre areas’ such as India, Africa, Middle East, Central Asia and Australasia which require innovative approaches to the study of traditional, as well as post-colonial and contemporary, morphologies. Broader interpretations of urban form at the edge focus on minor centres and suburbia, with their developing and transilient character; edge cities and regional centres; and new technologies and approaches that are developing alongside established methods, tools and theories of urban morphology...

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to unsafe water and lack of sanitation and hygiene in South Africa in 2000

Objectives To estimate the burden of disease attributable to unsafe water, sanitation and hygiene (WSH) by age group for South Africa in 2000. Design World Health Organization comparative risk assessment methodology was used to estimate the disease burden attributable to an exposure by comparing the observed risk factor distribution with a theoretical lowest possible population distribution. A scenario-based approach was applied for estimating diarrhoeal disease burden from unsafe WSH. Six exposure scenarios were defined based on the type of water and sanitation infrastructure and environmental faecal-oral pathogen load. For ‘intestinal parasites’ and schistosomiasis, the burden was assumed to be 100% attributable to exposure to unsafe WSH. Setting South Africa. Outcome measures Disease burden from diarrhoeal diseases, intestinal parasites and schistosomiasis, measured by deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Results 13 434 deaths were attributable to unsafe WSH accounting for 2.6% (95% uncertainty interval 2.4 - 2.7%) of all deaths in South Africa in 2000. The burden was especially high in children under 5 years, accounting for 9.3% of total deaths in this age group and 7.4% of burden of disease. Overall, the burden due to unsafe WSH was equivalent to 2.6% (95% uncertainty interval 2.5 - 2.7%) of the total disease burden for South Africa, ranking this risk factor seventh for the country. Conclusions Unsafe WSH remains an important risk factor for disease in South Africa, especially in children under 5. High priority needs to be given to the provision of safe and sustainable sanitation and water facilities and to promoting safe hygiene behaviours, particularly among children.

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to four selected environmental risk factors in South Africa

INTRODUCTION: The first South African National Burden of Disease study quantified the underlying causes of premature mortality and morbidity experienced in South Africa in the year 2000. This was followed by a Comparative Risk Assessment to estimate the contributions of 17 selected risk factors to burden of disease in South Africa. This paper describes the health impact of exposure to four selected environmental risk factors: unsafe water, sanitation and hygiene; indoor air pollution from household use of solid fuels; urban outdoor air pollution and lead exposure. METHODS: The study followed World Health Organization comparative risk assessment methodology. Population-attributable fractions were calculated and applied to revised burden of disease estimates (deaths and disability adjusted life years, [DALYs]) from the South African Burden of Disease study to obtain the attributable burden for each selected risk factor. The burden attributable to the joint effect of the four environmental risk factors was also estimated taking into account competing risks and common pathways. Monte Carlo simulation-modeling techniques were used to quantify sampling, uncertainty. RESULTS: Almost 24 000 deaths were attributable to the joint effect of these four environmental risk factors, accounting for 4.6% (95% uncertainty interval 3.8-5.3%) of all deaths in South Africa in 2000. Overall the burden due to these environmental risks was equivalent to 3.7% (95% uncertainty interval 3.4-4.0%) of the total disease burden for South Africa, with unsafe water sanitation and hygiene the main contributor to joint burden. The joint attributable burden was especially high in children under 5 years of age, accounting for 10.8% of total deaths in this age group and 9.7% of burden of disease. CONCLUSION: This study highlights the public health impact of exposure to environmental risks and the significant burden of preventable disease attributable to exposure to these four major environmental risk factors in South Africa. Evidence-based policies and programs must be developed and implemented to address these risk factors at individual, household, and community levels.

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to interpersonal violence in South Africa in 2000

Violence, previously considered a social issue, is now an acknowledged public health problem. It is defined as the intentional use of physical force or power, threatened or actual, against another person, against oneself, or against a group or community, that results in injury, death or deprivation.1 In this study we focus on exposure to the interpersonal type of violence, which includes acts of family violence and community violence. Family violence is further categorised by victim: child, intimate partner, or elder. Community violence occurs among unrelated individuals and includes sexual assault and rape by strangers as well as youth violence...

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to high cholesterol in South Africa in 2000

Objectives To estimate the burden of disease attributable to high cholesterol in adults aged 30 years and older in South Africa in 2000. Design World Health Organization comparative risk assessment (CRA) methodology was followed. Small community studies were used to derive the prevalence by population group. Population-attributable fractions were calculated and applied to revised burden of disease estimates for the relevant disease categories for each population group. The total attributable burden for South Africa in 2000 was obtained by adding the burden attributed to high cholesterol for the four population groups. Monte Carlo simulation-modelling techniques were used for uncertainty analysis. Setting South Africa. Subjects Black African, coloured, white and Indian adults aged 30 years and older. Outcome measures Mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and ischaemic stroke. Results Overall, about 59% of IHD and 29% of ischaemic stroke burden in adult males and females (30+ years) were attributable to high cholesterol (≥ 3.8 mmol/l), with marked variation by population group. High cholesterol was estimated to have caused 24 144 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 22 404 - 25 286) or 4.6% (95% uncertainty interval 4.3 - 4.9%) of all deaths in South Africa in 2000. Since most cholesterol-related cardiovascular disease events occurred in middle or old age, the loss of life years comprised a smaller proportion of the total: 222 923 DALYs (95% uncertainty interval 206 712 - 233 460) or 1.4% of all DALYs (95% uncertainty interval 1.3 - 1.4%) in South Africa in 2000. Conclusions High cholesterol is an important cardiovascular risk factor in all population groups in South Africa.