Scenarios Generation for Multi-Agent simulation of Electricity Markets based on Intelligent Data Analysis

This document presents a tool able to automatically gather data provided by real energy markets and to generate scenarios, capture and improve market players’ profiles and strategies by using knowledge discovery processes in databases supported by artificial intelligence techniques, data mining algorithms and machine learning methods. It provides the means for generating scenarios with different dimensions and characteristics, ensuring the representation of real and adapted markets, and their participating entities. The scenarios generator module enhances the MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets) simulator, endowing a more effective tool for decision support. The achievements from the implementation of the proposed module enables researchers and electricity markets’ participating entities to analyze data, create real scenarios and make experiments with them. On the other hand, applying knowledge discovery techniques to real data also allows the improvement of MASCEM agents’ profiles and strategies resulting in a better representation of real market players’ behavior. This work aims to improve the comprehension of electricity markets and the interactions among the involved entities through adequate multi-agent simulation.

Estudo do potencial e sua aplicação prática na redução de consumos e melhoria de eficiência energética da Escola Básica de Canedo

Serve o presente para documentar a redução energética a levar a cabo na Escola Básica de Canedo e o seu potencial de poupança. Esta escola é uma no meio de dezenas em Portugal a necessitar de uma intervenção para reduzir os teus custos operacionais e usar a energia de um modo mais eficiente. Serão abrangidas as áreas da energia elétrica, da água e do gás, assim como soluções que reduzam por si só o uso das primeiras.

Multi-agent simulation of competitive electricity markets: Autonomous systems cooperation for European market modeling

The electricity market restructuring, and its worldwide evolution into regional and even continental scales, along with the increasing necessity for an adequate integration of renewable energy sources, is resulting in a rising complexity in power systems operation. Several power system simulators have been developed in recent years with the purpose of helping operators, regulators, and involved players to understand and deal with this complex and constantly changing environment. The main contribution of this paper is given by the integration of several electricity market and power system models, respecting to the reality of different countries. This integration is done through the development of an upper ontology which integrates the essential concepts necessary to interpret all the available information. The continuous development of Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets platform provides the means for the exemplification of the usefulness of this ontology. A case study using the proposed multi-agent platform is presented, considering a scenario based on real data that simulates the European Electricity Market environment, and comparing its performance using different market mechanisms. The main goal is to demonstrate the advantages that the integration of various market models and simulation platforms have for the study of the electricity markets’ evolution.

Metodologia de desenvolvimento de competências para os técnicos do setor elétrico

A solFORM é uma empresa de Consultoria e Formação Profissional nas áreas da Energia e Eletricidade, Higiene e Segurança no Trabalho e Comportamental. O seu foco de atuação é a oferta de formação profissional especializada a empresas que trabalham na rede de distribuição de energia elétrica. O diagnóstico realizado permitiu identificar como potencialidade de intervenção os serviços de recursos humanos prestados pela empresa, mais especificamente conceber uma metodologia de avaliação de competências e de identificação de necessidades de desenvolvimento para os técnicos do setor elétrico. A aplicação deste projeto permite adequar as competências dos colaboradores dos clientes da solFORM, empresas do setor elétrico, aos perfis profissionais exigidos pela agência reguladora da formação do setor, a AQTSE - Associação para a Qualificação Técnica do Setor Energético. Assim, o objetivo final será que a solFORM possa propor planos de desenvolvimento adequados às necessidades específicas dos colaboradores das suas empresas clientes. Depois de definido o planeamento estratégico e operacional da nova metodologia foi implementada num grupo piloto. Ao longo da implementação e no final foram avaliados os indicadores que demonstram o cumprimento dos objetivos estabelecidos, assim como a finalidade do projeto.

Ontologies for the interoperability of multiagent electricity markets simulation platforms

Electricity markets worldwide are complex and dynamic environments with very particular characteristics. These are the result of electricity markets’ restructuring and evolution into regional and continental scales, along with the constant changes brought by the increasing necessity for an adequate integration of renewable energy sources. The rising complexity and unpredictability in electricity markets has increased the need for the intervenient entities in foreseeing market behaviour. Market players and regulators are very interested in predicting the market’s behaviour. Market players need to understand the market behaviour and operation in order to maximize their profits, while market regulators need to test new rules and detect market inefficiencies before they are implemented. The growth of usage of simulation tools was driven by the need for understanding those mechanisms and how the involved players' interactions affect the markets' outcomes. Multi-agent based software is particularly well fitted to analyse dynamic and adaptive systems with complex interactions among its constituents, such as electricity markets. Several modelling tools directed to the study of restructured wholesale electricity markets have emerged. Still, they have a common limitation: the lack of interoperability between the various systems to allow the exchange of information and knowledge, to test different market models and to allow market players from different systems to interact in common market environments. This dissertation proposes the development and implementation of ontologies for semantic interoperability between multi-agent simulation platforms in the scope of electricity markets. The added value provided to these platforms is given by enabling them sharing their knowledge and market models with other agent societies, which provides the means for an actual improvement in current electricity markets studies and development. The proposed ontologies are implemented in MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets) and tested through the interaction between MASCEM agents and agents from other multi-agent based simulators. The implementation of the proposed ontologies has also required a complete restructuring of MASCEM’s architecture and multi-agent model, which is also presented in this dissertation. The results achieved in the case studies allow identifying the advantages of the novel architecture of MASCEM, and most importantly, the added value of using the proposed ontologies. They facilitate the integration of independent multi-agent simulators, by providing a way for communications to be understood by heterogeneous agents from the various systems.

Hydrogen permeation in parabolic trough receivers

The continued economic and population development puts additional pressure on the already scarce energetic sources. Thus there is a growing urge to adopt a sustainable plan able to meet the present and future energetic demands. Since the last two decades, solar trough technology has been demonstrating to be a reliable alternative to fossil fuels. Currently, the trough industry seeks, by optimizing energy conversion, to drive the cost of electricity down and therefore to place itself as main player in the next energetic age. One of the issues that lately have gained considerable relevance came from the observation of significant heat losses in a large number of receiver modules. These heat losses were attributed to slow permeation of traces of hydrogen gas through the steel tube wall into the vacuum annulus. The presence of hydrogen gas in the absorber tube results from the decomposition of heat transfer fluid due to the long-term exposure to 400°C. The permeated hydrogen acts as heat conduction mean leading to a decrease in the receivers performance and thus its lifetime. In order to prevent hydrogen accumulation, it has been common practice to incorporate hydrogen getters in the vacuum annulus of the receivers. Nevertheless these materials are not only expensive but their gas absorbing capacity can be insufficient to assure the required level of vacuum for the receivers to function. In this work the building of a permeation measurement device, vulnerabilities detected in the construction process and its overcome are described. Furthermore an experimental procedure was optimized and the obtained permeability results, of different samples were evaluated. The data was compared to measurements performed by an external entity. The reliability of the comparative data was also addressed. In the end conclusions on the permeability results for the different samples characteristics, feasibility of the measurement device are drawn and recommendations on future line of work were made.

Strategic planning of electricity systems: Integrating renewable energies

Tese de Doutoramento - Programa Doutoral em Engenharia Industrial e Sistemas (PDEIS)

Requisitos de gestão e técnicos no Laboratório de Análises das Águas do Porto à luz da norma NP EN ISO-IEC 17025

Dissertação de mestrado em Técnicas de Caracterização e Análise Química

Sôbre u'a modificação do meio de Monteverde

It is well known that the culture media used in the presumptive diagnosis of suspiciuous colonies from plates inoculated with stools for isolation of enteric organisms do not always correctly indicate the major groups of enterobacteria. In an effort to obtain a medium affording more exact indications, several media (1-9) have been tested. Modifications of some of these media have also been tested with the result that a satisfactory modification of Monteverde's medium was finaly selected. This proved to be most satisfactory, affording, as a result of only one inoculation, a complete series of basic indications. The modification involves changes in the formula, in the method of preparation and in the manner of storage. The formulae are: A. Thymol blue indicator: NaOH 0.1/N .............. 34.4 ml; Thymol blue .............. 1.6 g; Water .................... 65.6 ml. B. Andrade's indicator. C. Urea and sugar solution: Urea ..................... 20 g; Lactose ................... 30 g; Sucrose ................... 30 g; Water .................... 100 ml. The mixture (C.) should be warmed slightly in order to dissolve the ingredients rapidly. Sterilise by filtration (Seitz). Keep stock in refrigeratior. The modification of Monteverde's medium is prepared in two parts. Semi-solid part - Peptone (Difco) 2.0 g; NaCl 0.5 g; Agar 0.5 g; Water 100.0 ml. Boil to dissolve the ingredients. Adjust pH with NaOH to 7.3-7.4. Boil again for precipitation. Filter through cotton. Ad indicators "A" 0.3 ml and "B" 1.0 ml. Sterilise in autoclave 115ºC, 15 minutes in amounts not higher than 200 ml. Just before using, add solution "C" asseptically in amounts of 10 ml to 200 ml of the melted semi-solid medium, maintained at 48-50ºC. Solid part - Peptone (Difco) 1.5 g; Trypticase (BBL) 0.5 g; Agar 2.0 g; Water 100,00 ml. Boil to dissolve the ingredients. Adjust pH with NaOH to 7.3-7.4. Boils again. Filter through cotton. Add indicators "A" 0.3 ml and "B" 1.0 ml; ferrous ammonium sulfate 0.02 g; sodiun thiosulfate 0.02 g. Sterilise in autoclave 115ºC, 15 minutes in amounts not higher than 200 ml. Just before using, add solution "C" asseptically in amounts of 10 ml to 200 ml of the melted solid medium, maintained at 48-50ºC. Final medium - The semi-solid part is dispensed first (tubes about 12 x 120 mm) in 2.5 ml amounts and left to harden at room temperature, in vertical position. The solid part is dispensed over the hardened semi-solid one in amounts from 2.0 ml to 2.5 ml and left to harden in slant position, affording a butt of 12 to 15 mm. The tubes of medium should be subjected to a sterility test in the incubator, overnight. Tubes showing spontaneous gas bubbles (air) should then be discarded. The medium should be stored in the incubator (37ºC), for not more than 2 to 4 days. Storage of the tubes in the ice-box produces the absorption of air which is released as bubbles when the tubes are incubated at 37ºC after inoculation. This fact confirmed the observation of ARCHAMBAULT & McCRADY (10) who worked with liquid media and the aplication of their observation was found to be essential to the proper working conditions of this double-layer medium. Inoculation - The inoculation is made by means of a long straight needle, as is usually done on the triple sugar, but the needel should penetrate only to about half of the height of the semi-solid column. Indol detection - After inoculation, a strip of sterelized filter papaer previously moistened with Ehrlich's reagent, is suspended above the surface of the medium, being held between the cotton plug and the tube. Indications given - In addition to providing a mass of organisms on the slant for serological invetigations, the medium gives the following indications: 1. Acid from lactose and/or sucrose (red, of yellowsh with strains which reduce the indicators). 2. Gas from lactose and/or sucrose (bubbles). 3. H[2]S production, observed on the solid part (black). 4. Motility observed on the semi-solid part (tubidity). 5. Urease production, observed on solid and semi-solid parts (blue). 6. Indol production, observed on the strip of filter paper (red or purplish). Indol production is not observed with indol positive strains which rapidly acidify the surface o the slant, and the use of oxalic acid has proved to give less sensitive reaction (11). Reading of results - In most cases overnight incubation is enough; sometimes the reactions appear within only a few hours of incubation, affording a definitive orientation of the diagnosis. With some cultures it is necessary to observe the medium during 48 hours of incubation. A description showing typical differential reaction follows: Salmonella: Color of the medium unchanged, with blackening of the solid part when H[2]S is positive. The slant tends to alkalinity (greenish of bluish). Gas always absent. Indol negative. Motility positive or negative. Shigella: Color of the medium unchanged at the beginning of incubation period, but acquiring a red color when the strain is late lactose/sucrose positive. Slant tending to alkalinity (greenish or purplish). Indol positive or negative. Motility, gas and H[2]S always negative. Proteus: Color of the medium generally changes entirely to blue or sometimes to green (urease positive delayed), with blackening of solid part when H[2]S is positive. Motility positive of negative. Indol positive. Gas positive or negative. The strains which attack rapidly sucrose may give a yellow-greenish color to the medium. Sometimes the intense blue color of the medium renders difficult the reading of the H[2]S production. Escherichiae and Klebsiellae: Color of the medium red or yellow (acid) with great and rapid production of gas. Motility positive or negative. Indol generally impossible to observe. Paracoli: Those lactose of sucrose positive give the same reaction as Esherichia. Those lactose or sucrose negatives give the same reactions as Salmonellae. Sometimes indol positive and H[2]S negative. Pseudomonas: Color of the medium unchanged. The slant tends to alkalinity. It is impossible to observe motility because there is no growth in the bottom. Alkaligenes: Color of the medium unchanged. The slant tends to alkalinity. The medium does not alter the antigenic properties of the strains and with the mass of organisms on the slant we can make the serologic diagnosis. It is admitted that this medium is somewhat more laborious to prepare than others used for similar purposes. Nevertheless it can give informations generally obtained by two or three other media. Its use represents much saving in time, labor and material, and we suggest it for routine laboratory work in which a quick presumptive preliminary grouping of enteric organisms is needed.

The regional electricity generation mix in Scotland: A portfolio selection approach

Standalone levelised cost assessments of electricity supply options miss an important contribution that renewable and non-fossil fuel technologies can make to the electricity portfolio: that of reducing the variability of electricity costs, and their potentially damaging impact upon economic activity. Portfolio theory applications to the electricity generation mix have shown that renewable technologies, their costs being largely uncorrelated with non-renewable technologies, can offer such benefits. We look at the existing Scottish generation mix and examine drivers of changes out to 2020. We assess recent scenarios for the Scottish generation mix in 2020 against mean-variance efficient portfolios of electricity-generating technologies. Each of the scenarios studied implies a portfolio cost of electricity that is between 22% and 38% higher than the portfolio cost of electricity in 2007. These scenarios prove to be “inefficient” in the sense that, for example, lower variance portfolios can be obtained without increasing portfolio costs, typically by expanding the share of renewables. As part of extensive sensitivity analysis, we find that Wave and Tidal technologies can contribute to lower risk electricity portfolios, while not increasing portfolio cost.

Herramientas open source para la creación de portales

En aquest treball es proposa una aproximació al món del codi font obert des del punt de vista de la realització de portals col·laboratius i les seves eines involucrades. Per fer-ho, es passa revista als diferents tipus d'aplicacions, plataformes i utilitats que trobem disponibles, i s'agrupen en diferents categories: infraestructura i sistemes, serveis de comunicació, serveis de comunitat, serveis genèrics de portal, eines d'interacció amb sistemes mòbils, eines per al desenvolupament i prova i llibreries de suport.

Distribution of artifactual gas on post-mortem multidetector computed tomography (MDCT).

PURPOSE: We investigated the incidence and distribution of post-mortem gas detected with multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) to identify factors that could distinguish artifactual gas from cardiac air embolism. MATERIAL AND METHODS: MDCT data of 119 cadavers were retrospectively examined. Gas was semiquantitatively assessed in selected blood vessels, organs, and body spaces (82 total sites). RESULTS: Seventy-four of the 119 cadavers displayed gas (62.2%; CI 95% 52.8-70.9), and 56 (75.7%) displayed gas in the heart. Most gas was detected in the hepatic parenchyma (40%), right heart (38% ventricle, 35% atrium), inferior vena cava (30% infrarenally, 26% suprarenally), hepatic veins (26% left, 29% middle, 22% right), and portal spaces (29%). Male cadavers displayed gas more frequently than female cadavers. Gas was detected 5-84 hours after death; therefore, the post-mortem interval could not reliably predict gas distribution (rho = 0.719, p < 0.0001). We found that a large amount of putrefaction-generated gas in the right heart was associated with aggregated gas bubbles in the hepatic parenchyma (sensitivity = 100%, specificity = 89.7%). In contrast, gas in the left heart (sensitivity = 41.7%, specificity = 100%) or in periumbilical subcutaneous tissues (sensitivity = 50%, specificity = 96.3%) could not predict gas due to putrefaction. CONCLUSION: This study is the first to show that the appearance of post-mortem gas follows a specific distribution pattern. An association between intracardiac gas and hepatic parenchymal gas could distinguish between post-mortem-generated gas and vital air embolism. We propose that this finding provides a key for diagnosing death due to cardiac air embolism.

Ilmanvaihtokoneen ohjauksen taloudellisuusvaikutukset

Tämän insinöörityön tarkoituksena oli luoda Insinööritoimisto Olof Granlund Oy:lle malliprojekti ilmanvaihtokoneen ohjauksen mahdollisesta sähköenergian säästöpotentiaalista. Insinöörityötä voidaan myöhemmin käyttää referenssinä tarjottaessa yrityksen palvelua asiakkaille energiakatselmointityössä kiinteistöihin, joissa on suuria ilmanvaihtokone-yksiköitä. Ensin työssä esitellään käytössä olevat, tutkittavat ilmanvaihtokoneet ja niiden toiminta. Sitten selvitetään ilmanvaihtolaitteiden ja niiden ohjauksen eri osien toiminta, sekä ohjausinformaatio, joka välittyy eri laitteiden välillä. Seuraavaksi työssä tutkitaan rakennusautomaation osuutta, sen hyötyä ja rakennetta kiinteistössä. Tämän jälkeen selvitetään hankkeen viranomaismääräykset. Sitten selvitetään, mistä koostuvat kustannukset ilmanvaihtokoneen ohjauksen uusimisessa. Lopuksi vielä tutkitaan, kuinka pitkä on tehtävän investoinnin takaisinmaksuaika, sekä mitkä ovat saneerauksen hiilidioksidi-päästövaikutukset. insinöörityön Lopputuloksena syntyi yrityksen sisäinen kansio. Kansion esimerkkilaskelmia ja laskentamenetelmiä on tarkoitus käyttää jatkossa referenssinä kiinteistönpito-osastolla sähkö- ja lvi-ryhmissä, niiden henkilöiden käytössä, jotka ovat tekemisissä energiakatselmointien kanssa.

Seismic attenuation in heterogeneous partially saturated rocks

We study wave-induced fluid flow effects in porous rocks partially saturated with gas and water, where the saturation patterns are governed by mesoscopic heterogeneities associated with the dry frame properties. The link between the dry frame properties and the gas saturation is defined by the assumption of capillary pressure equilibrium, which in the presence of heterogeneity implies that neighboring regions can exhibit different levels of saturation. In order to determine the equivalent attenuation and phase velocity of the synthetic rock samples considered in this study, we apply a numerical upscaling procedure, which permits to take into account mesoscopic heterogeneities associated with the dry frame properties as well as spatially continuous variations of the pore fluid properties. We consider numerical experiments to analyze such effects in heterogeneous partially saturated porous media, where the saturation field is determined by realistic variations in porosity. Our results indicate that the spatially continuous nature of gas saturation inherent to this study is a critical parameter controlling the seismic response of these environments, which in turn suggests that the physical mechanisms governing partial saturation should be accounted for when analyzing seismic data in a poro-elastic context.

Distribution of artifactual gas on post-mortem multidetector computed tomography (MDCT)

L'imagerie est de plus en plus utilisée en médecine forensique. Actuellement, les connaissances nécessaires pour interpréter les images post mortem sont faibles et surtout celles concernant les artéfacts post mortem. Le moyen radiologique le plus utilisé en médecine légale est la tomodensitométrie multi-coupes (TDMC). Un de ses avantages est la détection de gaz dans le corps. Cette technique est utile au diagnostic d'embolie gazeuse mais sa très grande sensibilité rend visible du gaz présent même en petite quantité. Les premières expériences montrent que presque tous les corps scannés présentent du gaz surtout dans le système vasculaire. Pour cette raison, le médecin légiste est confronté à un nouveau problème : la distinction entre du gaz d'origine post-mortem et une embolie gazeuse vraie. Pour parvenir à cette distinction, il est essentiel d'étudier la distribution de ces gaz en post mortem. Aucune étude systématique n'a encore été réalisée à ce jour sur ce sujet.¦Nous avons étudié l'incidence et la distribution des gaz présents en post mortem dans les vaisseaux, dans les os, dans les tissus sous-cutanés, dans l'espace sous-dural ainsi que dans les cavités crânienne, thoracique et abdominale (82 sites au total) de manière à identifier les facteurs qui pourraient distinguer le gaz post-mortem artéfactuel d'une embolie gazeuse¦Les données TDMC de 119 cadavres ont été étudiées rétrospectivement. Les critères d'inclusion des sujets sont l'absence de lésion corporelle permettant la contamination avec l'air extérieur, et, la documentation du délai entre le moment du décès et celui du CT-scan (p.ex. rapport de police, protocole de réanimation ou témoin). La présence de gaz a été évaluée semi-quantitativement par deux radiologues et codifiée. La codification est la suivante : grade 0 = pas de gaz, grade 1 = une à quelques bulles d'air, grade 2 = structure partiellement remplie d'air, grade 3 = structure complètement remplie d'air.¦Soixante-quatre des 119 cadavres présentent du gaz (62,2%), et 56 (75,7%) ont montré du gaz dans le coeur. Du gaz a été détecté le plus fréquemment dans le parenchyme hépatique (40%); le coeur droit (ventricule 38%, atrium 35%), la veine cave inférieure (infra-rénale 30%, supra-rénale 26%), les veines sus-hépatiques (gauche 26%, moyenne 29%, droite 22 %), et les espaces du porte (29%). Nous avons constaté qu'une grande quantité de gaz liée à la putréfaction présente dans le coeur droit (grade 3) est associée à des collections de gaz dans le parenchyme hépatique (sensibilité = 100%, spécificité = 89,7%). Pour décrire nos résultats, nous avons construit une séquence d'animation qui illustre le processus de putréfaction et l'apparition des gaz à la TDMC post-mortem.¦Cette étude est la première à montrer que l'apparition post-mortem des gaz suit un modèle de distribution spécifique. L'association entre la présence de gaz intracardiaque et dans le parenchyme hépatique pourrait permettre de distinguer du gaz artéfactuel d'origine post-mortem d'une embolie gazeuse vraie. Cette étude fournit une clé pour le diagnostic de la mort due à une embolie gazeuse cardiaque sur la base d'une TDMC post-mortem.¦Abstract¦Purpose: We investigated the incidence and distribution of post-mortem gas detected with multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) to identify factors that could distinguish artifactual gas from cardiac air embolism.¦Material and Methods: MDCT data of 119 cadavers were retrospectively examined. Gas was semiquantitatively assessed in selected blood vessels, organs and body spaces (82 total sites).¦Results: Seventy-four of the 119 cadavers displayed gas (62.2%; CI 95% 52.8 to 70.9), and 56 (75.7%) displayed gas in the heart. Most gas was detected in the hepatic parenchyma (40%); right heart (38% ventricle, 35% atrium), inferior vena cava (30% infrarenally, 26% suprarenally), hepatic veins (26% left, 29% middle, 22% right), and portal spaces (29%). Male cadavers displayed gas more frequently than female cadavers. Gas was detected 5-84 h after death; therefore, the post-mortem interval could not reliably predict gas distribution (rho=0.719, p<0.0001). We found that a large amount of putrefaction-generated gas in the right heart was associated with aggregated gas bubbles in the hepatic parenchyma (sensitivity = 100%, specificity = 89.7%). In contrast, gas in the left heart (sensitivity = 41.7%, specificity = 100%) or in peri-umbilical subcutaneous tissues (sensitivity = 50%, specificity = 96.3%) could not predict gas due to putrefaction.¦Conclusion: This study is the first to show that the appearance of post-mortem gas follows a specific distribution pattern. An association between intracardiac gas and hepatic parenchymal gas could distinguish between post- mortem-generated gas and vital air embolism. We propose that this finding provides a key for diagnosing death due to cardiac air embolism.