A review of measurement-based assessments of the aerosol direct radiative effect and forcing

Aerosols affect the Earth's energy budget directly by scattering and absorbing radiation and indirectly by acting as cloud condensation nuclei and, thereby, affecting cloud properties. However, large uncertainties exist in current estimates of aerosol forcing because of incomplete knowledge concerning the distribution and the physical and chemical properties of aerosols as well as aerosol-cloud interactions. In recent years, a great deal of effort has gone into improving measurements and datasets. It is thus feasible to shift the estimates of aerosol forcing from largely model-based to increasingly measurement-based. Our goal is to assess current observational capabilities and identify uncertainties in the aerosol direct forcing through comparisons of different methods with independent sources of uncertainties. Here we assess the aerosol optical depth (τ), direct radiative effect (DRE) by natural and anthropogenic aerosols, and direct climate forcing (DCF) by anthropogenic aerosols, focusing on satellite and ground-based measurements supplemented by global chemical transport model (CTM) simulations. The multi-spectral MODIS measures global distributions of aerosol optical depth (τ) on a daily scale, with a high accuracy of ±0.03±0.05τ over ocean. The annual average τ is about 0.14 over global ocean, of which about 21%±7% is contributed by human activities, as estimated by MODIS fine-mode fraction. The multi-angle MISR derives an annual average AOD of 0.23 over global land with an uncertainty of ~20% or ±0.05. These high-accuracy aerosol products and broadband flux measurements from CERES make it feasible to obtain observational constraints for the aerosol direct effect, especially over global the ocean. A number of measurement-based approaches estimate the clear-sky DRE (on solar radiation) at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) to be about -5.5±0.2 Wm-2 (median ± standard error from various methods) over the global ocean. Accounting for thin cirrus contamination of the satellite derived aerosol field will reduce the TOA DRE to -5.0 Wm-2. Because of a lack of measurements of aerosol absorption and difficulty in characterizing land surface reflection, estimates of DRE over land and at the ocean surface are currently realized through a combination of satellite retrievals, surface measurements, and model simulations, and are less constrained. Over the oceans the surface DRE is estimated to be -8.8±0.7 Wm-2. Over land, an integration of satellite retrievals and model simulations derives a DRE of -4.9±0.7 Wm-2 and -11.8±1.9 Wm-2 at the TOA and surface, respectively. CTM simulations derive a wide range of DRE estimates that on average are smaller than the measurement-based DRE by about 30-40%, even after accounting for thin cirrus and cloud contamination. A number of issues remain. Current estimates of the aerosol direct effect over land are poorly constrained. Uncertainties of DRE estimates are also larger on regional scales than on a global scale and large discrepancies exist between different approaches. The characterization of aerosol absorption and vertical distribution remains challenging. The aerosol direct effect in the thermal infrared range and in cloudy conditions remains relatively unexplored and quite uncertain, because of a lack of global systematic aerosol vertical profile measurements. A coordinated research strategy needs to be developed for integration and assimilation of satellite measurements into models to constrain model simulations. Enhanced measurement capabilities in the next few years and high-level scientific cooperation will further advance our knowledge.

Tensor regression based on linked multiway parameter analysis

Classical regression methods take vectors as covariates and estimate the corresponding vectors of regression parameters. When addressing regression problems on covariates of more complex form such as multi-dimensional arrays (i.e. tensors), traditional computational models can be severely compromised by ultrahigh dimensionality as well as complex structure. By exploiting the special structure of tensor covariates, the tensor regression model provides a promising solution to reduce the model’s dimensionality to a manageable level, thus leading to efficient estimation. Most of the existing tensor-based methods independently estimate each individual regression problem based on tensor decomposition which allows the simultaneous projections of an input tensor to more than one direction along each mode. As a matter of fact, multi-dimensional data are collected under the same or very similar conditions, so that data share some common latent components but can also have their own independent parameters for each regression task. Therefore, it is beneficial to analyse regression parameters among all the regressions in a linked way. In this paper, we propose a tensor regression model based on Tucker Decomposition, which identifies not only the common components of parameters across all the regression tasks, but also independent factors contributing to each particular regression task simultaneously. Under this paradigm, the number of independent parameters along each mode is constrained by a sparsity-preserving regulariser. Linked multiway parameter analysis and sparsity modeling further reduce the total number of parameters, with lower memory cost than their tensor-based counterparts. The effectiveness of the new method is demonstrated on real data sets.

A flexible model for survival data with a cure rate: a Bayesian approach

In this paper we deal with a Bayesian analysis for right-censored survival data suitable for populations with a cure rate. We consider a cure rate model based on the negative binomial distribution, encompassing as a special case the promotion time cure model. Bayesian analysis is based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We also present some discussion on model selection and an illustration with a real dataset.

A pointcut-based coverage analysis approach for aspect-oriented programs

Aspect-oriented programming (AOP) is a promising technology that supports separation of crosscutting concerns (i.e., functionality that tends to be tangled with, and scattered through the rest of the system). In AOP, a method-like construct named advice is applied to join points in the system through a special construct named pointcut. This mechanism supports the modularization of crosscutting behavior; however, since the added interactions are not explicit in the source code, it is hard to ensure their correctness. To tackle this problem, this paper presents a rigorous coverage analysis approach to ensure exercising the logic of each advice - statements, branches, and def-use pairs - at each affected join point. To make this analysis possible, a structural model based on Java bytecode - called PointCut-based Del-Use Graph (PCDU) - is proposed, along with three integration testing criteria. Theoretical, empirical, and exploratory studies involving 12 aspect-oriented programs and several fault examples present evidence of the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed approach. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting random effects with an expanded finite population mixed model

Prediction of random effects is an important problem with expanding applications. In the simplest context, the problem corresponds to prediction of the latent value (the mean) of a realized cluster selected via two-stage sampling. Recently, Stanek and Singer [Predicting random effects from finite population clustered samples with response error. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 99, 119-130] developed best linear unbiased predictors (BLUP) under a finite population mixed model that outperform BLUPs from mixed models and superpopulation models. Their setup, however, does not allow for unequally sized clusters. To overcome this drawback, we consider an expanded finite population mixed model based on a larger set of random variables that span a higher dimensional space than those typically applied to such problems. We show that BLUPs for linear combinations of the realized cluster means derived under such a model have considerably smaller mean squared error (MSE) than those obtained from mixed models, superpopulation models, and finite population mixed models. We motivate our general approach by an example developed for two-stage cluster sampling and show that it faithfully captures the stochastic aspects of sampling in the problem. We also consider simulation studies to illustrate the increased accuracy of the BLUP obtained under the expanded finite population mixed model. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A partnership model of corporate ethics

The stock market crash of 1987 had a profound effect on corporate Australia and the Australian community in general. The fall-out revealed that some of our most respected business figures had not been as ethical, or even as lawful, as we would have hoped. This impropriety produced in Australia an awakening to business ethics. Whilst many companies endeavoured to introduce ethical practices into their corporations, they perceived ethics as a way of minimising damage to the corporation and in some cases as a means of competitive advantage. What was lost was the reason that one should embark on business ethics; and that is to make the society and corporate Australia a more ethical place in which to exist.This paper proposes a model based on 2 factors: commitment and partnerships, as a means of enabling corporate Australia to refocus attention on the main purpose of being inherently ethical in all that we do. This ethical model requires a commitment to partnerships with all stakeholders both internal and external in an attempt to enhance the level of ethical business practices that are contemplated and pursued within corporate Australia. Whilst the research agenda and the information collected is Australian-based, it is hoped that the ideas contained within this paper will have a wider appeal to corporations in similar cultural settings.

A morphological model for sexing nestling peregrine falcons (Falco Peregrinus Macropus) verified through genetic analysis

Adult peregrine falcons (Falco peregrinus macropus) have monotypic plumage and display strong reversed sexual dimorphism, with females significantly larger than males. Reversed sexual dimorphism is measurable among nestlings in the latter stages of their development and can therefore be used to differentiate between sexes. In the early stages of development, however, nestlings cannot be sexed with any degree of certainty because morphological differentiation between the sexes is not well developed. During this study we developed a model for sexing younger nestlings based on genetic analysis and morphometric data collected as part of a long-term banding study of this species. A discriminant function model based on morphological characteristics was developed for determining the sex of nestlings (n = 150) in the field and was shown to be 96.0% accurate. This predictive model was further tested against an independent morphometric dataset taken from a second group of nestlings (n = 131). The model correctly allocated sex to 96.2% of this second group of nestlings. Sex can reliably be determined (98.6% accurate) for nestlings that have a wing length of at least 9 cm using this model. Application of this model, therefore, allows the banding of younger nestlings and, as such, significantly increases the period of time over which banding can occur. Another important implication of this model is that by banding nestlings earlier, they are less likely to jump from the nest, therefore reducing the risk of injury to both the brood and the bander.

A model of the Australia-US exchange rate

This paper develops a model of exchange rate determination within an error correction framework. The intention is to identify both long and short term determinants that can be used to forecast the AUD/US exchange rate. The paper identifies a set of significant variables associated with exchange rate movements over a twenty year period from 1984 to 2004. Specifically, the overnight interest rate differential, Australia's foreign trade-weighted exposure to commodity prices as well as exchange rate volatility are variables identified that are able explain movements in the AUDIUS dollar relationship. An error correction model is subsequently constructed that incorporates an equilibrium correction term, a short-term interest rate differential variable, a commodity price variable and a proxy for exchange rate volatility. The model is then used to forecast out of sample and is found to dominate a naIve random walk model based on three different metrics.

Innovative model for clinical education in dietetics

Aim: Professional practice placement programs in dietetics face a number of challenges in respect of quantity, quality and sustainability. The aim of the present study is to report on the development of an innovative placement model based on a variety of training and supervision approaches to address these aforementioned challenges.

Methods: The model was developed following an investigation of existing practice and the literature with approaches that were identified as important to the requirements and constraints of dietetics clinical training incorporated into the model.

Results: Although one-on-one supervision is the predominant approach in Australian dietetic education, the educational literature and the authors' experience showed that a variety of approaches are represented in some form. The model developed involves the pairing of two students with one supervisor with students changing peer partners and supervisors every three weeks during the nine-week placement to diversify exposure to working and learning styles. The model integrates four customised approaches: incremental exposure to tasks; use of a clinical reasoning framework to help structure student understanding of the methods and judgements involved in patient care; structured enquiry in group discussions; and peer observation and feedback.

Conclusions: The model has potential to achieve efficiencies in supervisors' involvement by coordinating the skill development activities of students as a group and promoting peer-assisted learning.

Reactive system model for building fault-tolerant distributed applications

The development of fault-tolerant computing systems is a very difficult task. Two reasons contributed to this difficulty can be described as follows. The First is that, in normal practice, fault-tolerant computing policies and mechanisms are deeply embedded into most application programs, so that these application programs cannot cope with changes in environments, policies and mechanisms. These factors may change frequently in a distributed environment, especially in a heterogeneous environment. Therefore, in order to develop better fault-tolerant systems that can cope with constant changes in environments and user requirements, it is essential to separate the fault tolerant computing policies and mechanisms in application programs. The second is, on the other hand, a number of techniques have been proposed for the construction of reliable and fault-tolerant computing systems. Many computer systems are being developed to tolerant various hardware and software failures. However, most of these systems are to be used in specific application areas, since it is extremely difficult to develop systems that can be used in general-purpose fault-tolerant computing. The motivation of this thesis is based on these two aspects. The focus of the thesis is on developing a model based on the reactive system concepts for building better fault-tolerant computing applications. The reactive system concepts are an attractive paradigm for system design, development and maintenance because it separates policies from mechanisms. The stress of the model is to provide flexible system architecture for the general-purpose fault-tolerant application development, and the model can be applied in many specific applications. With this reactive system model, we can separate fault-tolerant computing polices and mechanisms in the applications, so that the development and maintenance of fault-tolerant computing systems can be made easier.

A decision-making model to choose business intelligence platforms for organizations

In recent time, technology applications in different fields, especially Business Intelligence (BI) have been developed rapidly and considered to be one of the most significant uses of information technology with special position reserved. The application of BI systems provides organizations with a sense of superiority in the competitive environment. Despite many advantages, the companies applying such systems may also encounter problems in decision-making process because of the highly diversified interactions within the systems. Hence, the choice of a suitable BI platform is important to take the great advantage of using information technology in all organizational fields. The current research aims at addressing the problems existed in the organizational decision-making process, proposing and implementing a suitable BI platform using Iranian companies as case study. The paper attempts to present a solitary model based on studying different methods in BI platform choice and applying the chosen BI platform for different decisionmaking processes. The results from evaluating the effectiveness of subsequently implementing the model for Iranian Industrial companies are discussed.

A new vision of management : full potential management model

This paper establishes the Full Potential Management (FPM) Model based upon the social model of disabilities coupled with principles of diversity management and disability-oriented human resource management. Despite the fact that the concept of management was once envisioned as having 'value to society ' by improving the quality of life through efficient practices (Rimler, 1976), management literature has narrowly defined management as a means to gain increased productivity and achieve organizational goals, thus overlooking the social formation and implementation design for a better life (Diener & Seligman, 2004; Small, 2004; Whitley 1989). Based upon the diversity literature, we propose that social-oriented diversity management principles and practices are the key to transforming management concepts from achieving organizational potential to achieving social aims that maximize the potential and quality of life of each person.

The microcosmic model of worm propagation

Each year, large amounts of money and labor are spent on patching the vulnerabilities in operating systems and various popular software to prevent exploitation by worms. Modeling the propagation process can help us to devise effective strategies against those worms' spreading. This paper presents a microcosmic analysis of worm propagation procedures. Our proposed model is different from traditional methods and examines deep inside the propagation procedure among nodes in the network by concentrating on the propagation probability and time delay described by a complex matrix. Moreover, since the analysis gives a microcosmic insight into a worm's propagation, the proposed model can avoid errors that are usually concealed in the traditional macroscopic analytical models. The objectives of this paper are to address three practical aspects of preventing worm propagation: (i) where do we patch? (ii) how many nodes do we need to patch? (iii) when do we patch? We implement a series of experiments to evaluate the effects of each major component in our microcosmic model. Based on the results drawn from the experiments, for high-risk vulnerabilities, it is critical that networks reduce the number of vulnerable nodes to below 80%. We believe our microcosmic model can benefit the security industry by allowing them to save significant money in the deployment of their security patching schemes.

Implementing a new model for teachers' professional learning in Papua New Guinea

This article reports on a study that investigates the possibilities of developing a professional learning model based on action research that could lead to sustained improvements in teaching and learning in schools in remote areas of Papua New Guinea. The issues related to the implementation of this model are discussed using a critical lens that questions the use of ‘western’ constructs about ‘successful’ professional learning and ‘quality’ education in Papua New Guinea. In the article, we discuss the notion of ‘professional learning’ and how action research can be conceived as a model for professional learning. Then, we discuss some of the issues and difficulties that are arising during the implementation of our study. The article concludes with a discussion of implications for future developments of professional learning for teachers in countries such as Papua New Guinea.