Predictability of stock market returns: Evidence from Eurozone's banking sectors

This paper analyzes the in-, and out-of sample, predictability of the stock market returns from Eurozone’s banking sectors, arising from bank-specific ratios and macroeconomic variables, using panel estimation techniques. In order to do that, I set an unbalanced panel of 116 banks returns, from April, 1991, to March, 2013, to constitute equal-weighted country-sorted portfolios representative of the Austrian, Belgian, Finish, French, German, Greek, Irish, Italian, Portuguese and Spanish banking sectors. I find that both earnings per share (EPS) and the ratio of total loans to total assets have in-sample predictive power over the portfolios’ monthly returns whereas, regarding the cross-section of annual returns, only EPS retain significant explanatory power. Nevertheless, the sign associated with the impact of EPS is contrarian to the results of past literature. When looking at inter-yearly horizon returns, I document in-sample predictive power arising from the ratios of provisions to net interest income, and non-interest income to net income. Regarding the out-of-sample performance of the proposed models, I find that these would only beat the portfolios’ historical mean on the month following the disclosure of year-end financial statements. Still, the evidence found is not statistically significant. Finally, in a last attempt to find significant evidence of predictability of monthly and annual returns, I use Fama and French 3-Factor and Carhart models to describe the cross-section of returns. Although in-sample the factors can significantly track Eurozone’s banking sectors’ stock market returns, they do not beat the portfolios’ historical mean when forecasting returns.

A regulação da atividade espacial

The technological evolution of the past fifty years has provided Humanity the contact with the last frontier of knowledge: space. An unknown world, explored by a small group of nations, which has become crucial to understanding who we are and where we come from. Space assets in recent years have opened the way to a digital society, shaped by the rapid exchange of information, whose means are mostly in space. A place of fascination and curiosity, restricted to a few people in these decades, which may soon be changing. This essay addresses some legal issues concerning the private exploration of space. Liability on space tourism is the core of this investigation, focusing on the comprehension of the international legal framework and its connection with the states national law. In particular, the study of the main international treaties, the U.S. legal system of space law and the developments in Europe are the fundamental tools of the current analysis, not forgetting the point of view of a possible international harmonization. Besides the needed theoretical context on the evolution of space law and a brief approach of the technical matters of the current aerospace engineering, the goal is to examine the characteristics of international space law and its relation with the new private actors, responsible for providing suborbital flights, operating in a near future. Within these circumstances, given the economic potential of the growing private space industry, it is essential to discuss the legal aspects of a spatial regulation. Being liability, undoubtedly, the emerging issue in the legal debate on this topic, it is important to safeguard the interests of the operators, States and, above all, future space tourists.

Uncertain Spaces: Virtual Configurations in Contemporary Art and Museums

Contém artigos apresentados na International Conference “Uncertain Spaces: Virtual Configurations in Contemporary Art and Museums”, na Fundação Calouste Gulbenkian (Lisboa), 31 Outubro - 1 de Novembro de 2014) de: Helena Barranha e Susana S. Martins - Introduction: Art, Museums and Uncertainty (pp.1-12); Alexandra Bounia e Eleni Myrivili - Beyond the ‘Virtual’: Intangible Museographies and Collaborative Museum Experiences (pp.15-32); Annet Dekker - Curating in Progress. Moving Between Objects and Processes (pp.33-54); Giselle Beiguelman - Corrupted Memories. The aesthetics of Digital Ruins and the Museum of the Unfinished (pp.55-82); Andrew Vaas Brooks - The Planetary Datalinks (pp.85-110); Sören Meschede - Curators’ Network: Creating a Promotional Database for Contemporary Visual Arts (pp.11-130); Stefanie Kogler - Divergent Histories and Digital Archives of Latin American and Latino Art in the United States – Old Problems in New Digital Formats (pp.131-156); Luise Reitstätter e Florian Bettel - Right to the City! Right to the Museum!(pp.159-182); Roberto Terracciano - On Geo-poetic systems: virtual interventions inside and outside the museum space (pp.183-210); e, Catarina Carneiro de Sousa e Luís Eustáquio - Art Practice in Collaborative Virtual Environments (pp.211-240).

Relatório de estágio curricular realizado na Câmara Municipal de Lisboa

The experience of an internship is always considered an experience that should be enriching, a first contact with the employment world. The intention is to build a bridge between the theory and practice - applying what has been learnt throughout the course. Therefore, it was started a new learning phase that seeks to take advantage and obtain experiences useful for a professional life based in efficiency and efficacy. The curricular internship was carried out within the Masters in Public Law and held by Faculdade de Direito da Universidade Nova de Lisboa (FDUNL)(Law School Of University New Of Lisbon) in the Câmara Municipal de Lisboa (CML) (Lisbon's Town Hall), in the Departamento de Política de Solos e Valorização Patrimonial (DPSVP) (Soil Politics and Patrimonial Valuation Department) of the Direção Municipal de Planeamento, Reabilitação e Gestão Urbanística (Municipal Direction of Planning, Rehabilitation and Urban Management) between September and December 2013. Throughout this internship, several activities within the DPSVP were developed. In an early stage, there was a presentation of the organic structure of Lisbon's Town Hall, and the Department where I was going to do the internship, and its competencies. Therefore I acquired key concepts and researched jurisprudence and legislation needed to the analysis and understanding of the activities done in the internship. In a second stage, it was done the analysis and understanding of the division into lots administrative procedures, as well as the solving of the problems occurred throughout that analysis. Besides that, there was the need to help preparing some procedural acts to be applied regarding the Department competencies, namely within the alienation, procurement, encumbrance and rental of immovable assets owned by the Municipality of Lisbon.

A Cidade do Trabalho: usos do património industrial (S. João da Madeira)

S. João da Madeira é uma localidade que desde cedo construiu os seus discursos em torno da identidade local sob o epíteto de Cidade do Trabalho. Mais recentemente, desde a última década do século XX, a cidade começou a olhar para a sua dimensão industrial do ponto de vista do seu cunho patrimonial, dentro do quadro emergente das políticas culturais e de identidade, no qual as identidades particulares – como à escala local – se querem afirmar no plano global. Partindo de uma primeira análise dos processos contemporâneos de patrimonialização do industrial no contexto de S. João da Madeira, concretizados pela via dos museus e do turismo, num trabalho de projeto que se apresenta como fase de investigação preliminar de um futuro trabalho de doutoramento, questiona-se como a antropologia poderá pensar o conceito de cultura popular fora dos contextos normalmente a estes atribuídos e como, consequentemente, poderá problematizar as fronteiras daquilo que poderá ser considerado ou não Património Cultural Imaterial (PCI), categoria com a qual a disciplina está historicamente comprometida.

Cuidados de saúde primários em Portugal

RESUMO - A evolução dos cuidados de saúde primários em Portugal nos últimos trinta anos conheceu várias fases. A partir de 1971 foram criados os primeiros centros de saúde — os centros de saúde de primeira geração, associados ao que então se entendia por saúde pública —, incluindo actividades como a vacinação, vigilância de saúde da mulher, da grávida e da criança, saúde escolar e ambiental, entre outras. Em 1983 os primeiros centros de saúde foram integrados com os numerosos postos dos ex-Serviços Médico- -Sociais («caixas»). Este processo de fusão conduziu a uma maior racionalidade formal, mas não resultou numa melhoria naquilo que eram as principais virtudes dos componentes integrados — acessibilidade a consultas e a visitas domiciliárias, por um lado, e, por outro, a programação de actividades com objectivos de saúde. Em 1999 foi publicada a legislação sobre os «centros de saúde de terceira geração». Esta aparece na sequência de experiências sobre o terreno — «projectos Alfa» e outras iniciativas semelhantes, baseados numa filosofia de «prática de grupo» — e do início de um regime remuneratório experimental para a clínica geral. As unidades operativas dos novos centros de saúde pressupõem um processo de mudança organizacional que não pode ser implementada pela via normativa clássica tipo top down. Embora necessite de um enquadramento «de cima», a sua realização dependerá essencialmente da capacidade de despoletar uma dinâmica de mudança em cada centro de saúde e de proporcionar acompanhamento e apoio técnico a esses processos de mudança locais.

Earnings overseas and cash holdings

I investigate the impact of foreign pre-tax income on the total amount of cash held by companies and on the amount of cash that is held in companies’ foreign subsidiaries. I also investigate the impact of the existence and amount of cash held on companies’ foreign subsidiaries in the composition of cash holdings in terms of risk and liquidity. Using a sample of 100 largest U.S. non-financial and non-utilities companies I find that companies with higher earnings overseas present higher cash reserves and invest a higher fraction of their cash in risky assets. My evidence suggests that companies have a different optimization strategy for cash overseas, in which precautionary motives are not the main driver for holding cash.

Measuring the impact of short and lending practices using the DGTW benchmarks

Mutual fund managers increasingly lend their holdings and/or use short sales to generate higher returns for their funds. This project presents a first look into the impact these practices on performance using the performance measures: i) Characteristic Selectivity (CS), the ability of the fund's managers to choose stocks that outperform their benchmarks; ii) Characteristic Timing (CT), the ability of the manager to time the market; iii) and Average Style (AS), the returns from funds systematically holding stocks with certain characteristics. These returns are computed through the DGTW benchmarks. The effect of other variables that have also been shown to impact fund’s returns – total net assets under management, investment styles, turnover and expense ratios – will also be analyzed. I find that managers who use short-sales do not exhibit better stock picking abilities than those who do not, while mutual funds that lend do present higher CS returns. In addition, while lending is not significant for the total performance of a fund, the employment of short-sales and of both short-sales and lending has a negative impact on the fund’s performance.

Banco BPI and the reimbursement of contingent convertible subordinated bonds (CoCos)

This case study focuses on the BPI’s recapitalization plan, its causes and the reasons for the early reimbursement of CoCos in June 2014. The need for a capital intervention and the subsequent subscription agreement with the Portuguese Government of €1 500 million Core Tier 1 instruments were the result of a temporary capital buffer for sovereign debt exposures imposed by the European Banking Authority. The capital increase, the positive earnings in 2012 and 2013, the improvements in the sovereign debt crisis, the implementation of Basel III, in addition to the public exchange offer and the conversion of deferred tax assets into tax credits are the main factors for concluding the entire recapitalization operation three years before the deadline.

Impact of corporate social responsibility in the European pharmaceutical market

The objective of this master thesis is to evaluate the impact of CSR measures in the financial performance of the European pharmaceutical industry. By definition, CSR measures is quantified as corporate social disclosure considering the published CSR keywords on the annual reports of the selected companies, over four fiscal years (2010-2013). The financial performance of the companies were measured as return on assets (ROA) and Tobin’s Q. In order to defend the hypothesis developed, a multivariate regression is performed. The results obtained show no significant impact on the financial performance of a company nor in the short-time, nor in the long-time. Moreover, by comparison with other studies, it was possible to conclude that the financial performance is differently affected when considering different industries.

Construction sector: Need for strategic reorientation

The construction sector in Portugal declined sharply over the past 10 years. The current crisis can wiped out the entire industry. Can the industry survive? What lessons can we learn? What can be done to revive the sector? These are questions this study intends to answer. By analyzing the best practices of the industry and of the largest construction companies in Portugal, as well as the difficulties and constrains that they all faced, I found that retrenchment (operational costs and selling assets) are the main measures companies resort to, and that strategic reorientation is essential to turnaround. I found that internationalization is a key driver on strategic reorientation and diversification and concentration are complementary strategies that can enforce and strengthen the main one.

Assessing performance drivers in cross-border M&A

This research is an investigation on the deal-specific factors impacting long-term performance of cross-border M&A and on the nature of such relations. The analysis is conducted on a sample of 187 cross-border deals completed within the pharmaceutical and biotech industries by Western European bidders between 2000 and 2009. Findings suggest that post-deal variation in gross profit improves when bidders diversify in other businesses, when assets are purchased instead of equity, and when stock is used as deal currency. Furthermore, the method of payment is found to moderate the effects geographical distance has on deal outcomes.

Biological colonization on majolica glazed tiles: biodeterioration, bioreceptivity and mitigation strategies

The impact of microbial activity on the deterioration of cultural heritage is a well-recognized global problem. Glazed wall tiles constitute an important part of the worldwide cultural heritage. When exposed outdoors, biological colonization and consequently biodeterioration may occur. Few studies have dealt with this issue, as shown in the literature review on biodiversity, biodeterioration and bioreceptivity of architectural ceramic materials. Due to the lack of knowledge on the biodeteriogens affecting these assets, the characterization of microbial communities growing on Portuguese majolica glazed tiles, from Pena National Palace (Sintra, Portugal) and another from Casa da Pesca (Oeiras, Portugal) was carried out by culture and molecular biology techniques. Microbial communities were composed of microalgae, cyanobacteria, bacteria and fungi, including a new fungal species (Devriesia imbrexigena) described for the first time. Laboratory-based colonization experiments were performed to assess the biodeterioration patterns and bioreceptivity of glazed wall tiles produced in laboratory. Microorganisms previously identified on glazed tiles were inoculated on pristine and artificially aged tile models and incubated under laboratory conditions for 12 months. Phototrophic microorganisms were able to grow into glaze fissures and the tested fungus was able to form oxalates over the glaze. The bioreceptivity of artificially aged tiles was higher for phototrophic microorganisms than pristine tile models. A preliminary approach on mitigation strategies based on in situ application of commercial biocides and titanium dioxide (TiO2) nanoparticles on glazed tiles demonstrated that commercial biocides did not provide long term protection. In contrast, TiO2 treatment caused biofilm detachment. In addition, the use of TiO2 thin films on glazed wall tiles as a protective coating to prevent biological colonization was analysed under laboratorial conditions. Finally, conservation notes on tiles exposed to biological colonization were presented.

The firm delocalization decision

In the current paper, the determinants of firm international relocation decision in twenty-six European countries during the period 2004-2014 are analyzed. We demonstrate, at light of three different but complementary theories that neoclassical, behavioural and institutional „push‟ factors have an impact in a firm decision-making process. Findings support that firm size, access to a global network, foreign capital, and negative internal growth in the workforce induce firm relocation. On the other hand, the degree of sunk assets has a negative effect on the probability of relocation. Delocalization decisions are also sector-dependent with low-tech manufacturing firms paying high salaries relocating abroad with a greater likelihood.

Património Cultural Imaterial: MEMORIAMEDIA e-Museu - métodos, técnicas e práticas / Intagible Cultural Heritage: MEMORIAMEDIA e-Museum - methods, techniques and practices

O projeto MEMORIAMEDIA tem como objetivos o estudo, a inventariação e divulgação de manifestações do património cultural imaterial: expressões orais; práticas performativas; celebrações; o saber-fazer de artes e ofícios e as práticas e conhecimentos relacionados com a natureza e o universo. O MEMORIAMEDIA iniciou em 2006, em pleno debate nacional e internacional das questões do património cultural imaterial. Este livro cruza essas discussões teóricas, metodológicas e técnicas com a caracterização do MEMORIAMEDIA. Os resultados do projeto, organizados num inventário nacional, estão publicados no site www.memoriamedia.net, onde se encontram disponíveis para consulta e partilha. Filomena Sousa é investigadora de pós-doutoramento em antropologia (FCSH/UNL) e doutorada em sociologia (ISCTE-IUL). Membro integrado no Instituto de Estudos de Literatura e Tradição - patrimónios, artes e culturas (IELT) da FCSH/UNL e consultora da Memória Imaterial CRL – organização não-governamental autora e gestora do projeto MEMORIAMEDIA. Desenvolve investigação no âmbito das políticas e instrumentos de identificação, documentação e salvaguarda do património cultural imaterial e realizou vários documentários sobre expressões culturais.