The impact of nonlinear exposure risk relationships on seasonal time series data: modelling danish neonatal birth anthropometric data

Background Birth weight and length have seasonal fluctuations. Previous analyses of birth weight by latitude effects identified seemingly contradictory results, showing both 6 and 12 monthly periodicities in weight. The aims of this paper are twofold: (a) to explore seasonal patterns in a large, Danish Medical Birth Register, and (b) to explore models based on seasonal exposures and a non-linear exposure-risk relationship. Methods Birth weight and birth lengths on over 1.5 million Danish singleton, live births were examined for seasonality. We modelled seasonal patterns based on linear, U- and J-shaped exposure-risk relationships. We then added an extra layer of complexity by modelling weighted population-based exposure patterns. Results The Danish data showed clear seasonal fluctuations for both birth weight and birth length. A bimodal model best fits the data, however the amplitude of the 6 and 12 month peaks changed over time. In the modelling exercises, U- and J-shaped exposure-risk relationships generate time series with both 6 and 12 month periodicities. Changing the weightings of the population exposure risks result in unexpected properties. A J-shaped exposure-risk relationship with a diminishing population exposure over time fitted the observed seasonal pattern in the Danish birth weight data. Conclusion In keeping with many other studies, Danish birth anthropometric data show complex and shifting seasonal patterns. We speculate that annual periodicities with non-linear exposure-risk models may underlie these findings. Understanding the nature of seasonal fluctuations can help generate candidate exposures.

A large change in temperature between neighbouring days increases the risk of mortality

Background: Previous studies have found high temperatures increase the risk of mortality in summer. However, little is known about whether a sharp decrease or increase in temperature between neighbouring days has any effect on mortality. Method: Poisson regression models were used to estimate the association between temperature change and mortality in summer in Brisbane, Australia during 1996–2004 and Los Angeles, United States during 1987–2000. The temperature change was calculated as the current day’s mean temperature minus the previous day’s mean. Results: In Brisbane, a drop of more than 3 °C in temperature between days was associated with relative risks (RRs) of 1.157 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.024, 1.307) for total non external mortality (NEM), 1.186 (95%CI: 1.002, 1.405) for NEM in females, and 1.442 (95%CI: 1.099, 1.892) for people aged 65–74 years. An increase of more than 3 °C was associated with RRs of 1.353 (95%CI: 1.033, 1.772) for cardiovascular mortality and 1.667 (95%CI: 1.146, 2.425) for people aged < 65 years. In Los Angeles, only a drop of more than 3 °C was significantly associated with RRs of 1.133 (95%CI: 1.053, 1.219) for total NEM, 1.252 (95%CI: 1.131, 1.386) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.254 (95%CI: 1.135, 1.385) for people aged ≥75 years. In both cities, there were joint effects of temperature change and mean temperature on NEM. Conclusion : A significant change in temperature of more than 3 °C, whether positive or negative, has an adverse impact on mortality even after controlling for the current temperature.

Early intervention music therapy : reporting on a 3-year project to address needs with at-risk families

Sing & Grow is an early intervention music therapy project presented to families with additional needs, or those at risk of experiencing disadvantage due to social and/or economic circumstances that may impact on their parenting experiences. The aim of the project is to provide short term music therapy programs to families in communities where access to such services may be limited. The program is strengths-based and focuses on building upon a parent’s capacity to relate to and respond to their child’s emotional and developmental needs.

Assessing the concordance of health and child protection data for 'maltreated' and 'unintentionally injured' children

Objectives: To quantify the concordance of hospital child maltreatment data with child protection service (CPS) records and identify factors associated with linkage. Methods: Multivariable logistic regression analysis was conducted following retrospective medical record review and database linkage of 884 child records from 20 hospitals and the CPS in Queensland, Australia. Results: Nearly all children with hospital assigned maltreatment codes (93.1%) had a CPS record. Of these, 85.1% had a recent notification. 29% of the linked maltreatment group (n=113) were not known to CPS prior to the hospital presentation. Almost 1/3 of children with unintentional injury hospital codes were known to CPS. Just over 24% of the linked unintentional injury group (n=34) were not known to CPS prior to the hospital presentation but became known during or after discharge from hospital. These estimates are higher than the 2006/07 annual rate of 2.39% of children being notified to CPS. Rural children were more likely to link to CPS, and children were over 3 times more likely to link if the index injury documentation included additional diagnoses or factors affecting their health. Conclusions: The system for referring maltreatment cases to CPS is generally efficient, although up to 1 in 15 children had codes for maltreatment but could not be linked to CPS data. The high proportion of children with unintentional injury codes who linked to CPS suggests clinicians and hospital-based child protection staff should be supported by further education and training to ensure children at risk are being detected by the child protection system.

Is there an App for that? : social media uses for road safety

The use of social media has increased dramatically in recent years in the areas of public health and injury prevention, with many organisations creating online and social media content. Despite the adoption of such media by modern society, research relating to the design and evaluation of social media for the promotion of health issues is very much in its infancy. A timely review of the available evidence in relation to the use of social media campaigns from both the road safety and broader public health context will be undertaken. In particular, this paper will address the questions of what social media should be developed, how it should be evaluated, as well as what should be the key measures of success and to what extent do these measures relate to practically significant outcomes, such as behaviour change. Much like more traditional media campaigns, social media may be best regarded as another approach within the array of potential approaches that a health advertising researcher or practitioner may utilise. With younger demographics becoming less likely to engage with more traditional advertising mediums relative to their preference for social media, social media‟s most important role in the road safety advertising context may be to offer the means of delivering road safety messages to high risk, younger road users.

Risk of second cancer after lymphohematopoietic neoplasm

People living with lymphohematopoietic neoplasms (LHNs) are known to have increased risks of second cancer; however, the incidence of second cancers after LHNs has not been studied extensively in Australia. The Australian Cancer Database was used to analyze site-specific risk of second primary cancer after LHNs in 127,707 patients diagnosed between 1983 and 2005. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated using population rates. Overall, patients with an LHN had nearly twice the risk of developing a second cancer compared to the Australian population. Among 40,321 patients with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL), there was over a fourfold significant increase in melanoma, Kaposi sarcoma, cancer of the lip, connective tissue and peripheral nerves, eye, thyroid, Hodgkin's disease (HD) and myeloid leukemia. Among 6,396 patients with HD, there was over a fourfold significant increase in melanoma, Kaposi sarcoma, cancer of the lip, oral cavity and pharynx, female breast, uterine cervix, testis, thyroid, NHL and myeloid leukemia. Among the 33,025 patients with lymphoid and myeloid leukemia, significant excess were seen for cancers of the lip, eye, connective tissue and peripheral nerves, NHL and HD. Among the 13,856 patients with plasma cell tumors, there was over fourfold significant increase for melanoma, cancer of the connective tissue and peripheral nerves and myeloid leukemia. Our findings provide evidence of an increased risk of cancer, particularly ultraviolet radiation- and immunosuppression-related cancers, after an LHN in Australia. Copyright © 2010 UICC.

Car ownership, mileage, and risky driving among young intermediate drivers

Introduction: Young drivers are at greatest risk of injury or death from a car crash in the first six months of independent driving. In Queensland, the graduated driver licensing (GDL) program was extensively modified in July 2007 and aims to minimise this risk. Increased mileage and car ownership have been found to play a role in risky driving, offences and crashes; however GDL programs typically do not consider these variables. The paper explores the mileage and car ownership characteristics of young newly-licensed intermediate (Provisional) drivers and their relation to risky driving, crashes and offences. Methods: Drivers (n = 1032) aged 17-19 years recruited from across Queensland for longitudinal research completed Survey 1 exploring pre-licence and Learner experiences and sociodemographic characteristics. Survey 2 explored the same variables with a subset of these drivers (n = 341) after they had completed their first six months of independent driving. Results: At Survey 2, most young drivers owned their vehicle. Novices who drove more kilometres and who spent more hours each week driving were more likely to report risky driving. These drivers were also more likely to report being detected by Police for a driving-related offence. Conclusions: GDL programs should incorporate education for the parent and novice driver regarding the increased risks associated with increased driving exposure, particularly where the novices own their vehicle. Parents should be encouraged to delay exclusive access to a vehicle for the novice driver.

Mileage, car ownership, experience of punishment avoidance and the risky driving of young drivers

Objective: Young drivers are at greatest risk of injury or death from a car crash in the first six months of independent driving. In Queensland, the graduated driver licensing (GDL) program was extensively modified in July 2007 in order to reduce this risk. Increased mileage and car ownership have been found to play a role in risky driving, offences and crashes; however GDL programs typically do not consider these variables. In addition, young novice drivers’ experiences of punishment avoidance have not previously been examined. The paper explores the mileage (duration and distance), car ownership and punishment avoidance behaviour of young newly-licensed intermediate (Provisional) drivers and their relationship with risky driving, crashes and offences. Methods: Drivers (n = 1032) aged 17-19 years recruited from across Queensland for longitudinal research completed Survey 1 exploring pre-licence and Learner experiences and sociodemographic characteristics. Survey 2 explored the same variables with a subset of these drivers (n = 341) after they had completed their first six months of independent driving. Results: Most young drivers in Survey 2 reported owning a vehicle and paying attention to Police presence. Drivers who had their own car reported significantly greater mileage and more risky driving. Novices who drove more kilometres, spent more hours each week driving, or avoided actual and anticipated Police presence were more likely to report risky driving. These drivers were also more likely to report being detected by Police for a driving-related offence. The media, parents, friends and other drivers play a pivotal role in informing novices of on-road Police enforcement operations. Conclusions: GDL programs should incorporate education for the parent and novice driver regarding the increased risks associated with greater driving particularly where the novices own a vehicle. Parents should be encouraged to delay exclusive access to a vehicle for the novice driver. Parents should also consider whether their young novice will deliberately avoid Police if they tell them their location. This may reinforce not only the risky behaviour but also the young novice’s beliefs that their parents condone this behaviour.