Opt-out options in new product co-development partnerships

We study three contractual arrangements—co-development, licensing, and co-development with opt-out options—for the joint development of new products between a small and financially constrained innovator firm and a large technology company, as in the case of a biotech innovator and a major pharma company. We formulate our arguments in the context of a two-stage model, characterized by technical risk and stochastically changing cost and revenue projections. The model captures the main disadvantages of traditional co-development and licensing arrangements: in co-development the small firm runs a risk of running out of capital as future costs rise, while licensing for milestone and royalty (M&R) payments, which eliminates the latter risk, introduces inefficiency, as profitable projects might be abandoned. Counter to intuition we show that the biotech's payoff in a licensing contract is not monotonically increasing in the M&R terms. We also show that an option clause in a co-development contract that gives the small firm the right but not the obligation to opt out of co-development and into a pre-agreed licensing arrangement avoids the problems associated with fully committed co-development or licensing: the probability that the small firm will run out of capital is greatly reduced or completely eliminated and profitable projects are never abandoned.

An Integrated Solution for Software Process Improvement

Since 1990s, the software industry in China has been developed very rapidly and the total revenue in recent three years of 2005, 2006 and 2007 were 390.0, 480.0, and 583.4 billions RMB respectively, increased by 28.3% annually on an average basis [1]. By the end of 2007, there were about 18,000 software enterprises in China, and the population of software professionals was 1.48 millions roughly. In the global software market, China, with annual revenue about 82.2 billions USD (8.74% of the total: 940 billions USD), currently ranks on the fourth after USA, EU and Japan. However, the software industry in China is still comparatively weak. Most software enterprises have only tens of employees and millions RBM of revenue. And the software development productivity in China varies highly across the software industry in terms of organization, development type, business area, region, language, project size and team size [2]. Co-operative efforts from the government, the industry and the academy are needed [3]. Continuous software process improvement is an effective way to change the challenging situation of the software industry in China.

Inner structure of Spin(c)(4) gauge potential on 4-dimensional manifolds

The decomposition of Spin(c)(4) gauge potential in terms of the Dirac 4-spinor is investigated, where an important characterizing equation Delta A(mu) = -lambda A(mu) has been discovered. Here, lambda is the vacuum expectation value of the spinor field, lambda = parallel to Phi parallel to(2), and A(mu) the twisting U(1) potential. It is found that when), takes constant values, the characterizing equation becomes an eigenvalue problem of the Laplacian operator. It provides a revenue to determine the modulus of the spinor field by using the Laplacian spectral theory. The above study could be useful in determining the spinor field and twisting potential in the Seiberg-Witten equations. Moreover, topological characteristic numbers of instantons in the self-dual sub-space are also discussed.

Diel vertical migration of zooplankton following optimal food intake under predation

A model is developed to investigate the trade-offs between benefits and costs involved in zooplanktonic diel vertical migration (DVM) strategies. The 'venturous revenue' (VR) is used as the criterion for optimal trade-offs. It is a function of environmental factors and the age of zooplankter. During vertical migration, animals are assumed to check instantaneously the variations of environmental parameters and thereby select the optimal behavioral strategy to maximize the value of VR, i.e. taking up as much food as possible with a certain risk of mortality. The model is run on a diel time scale (24 h) in four possible scenarios during the animal's life history. The results show that zooplankton can perform normal DVM balancing optimal food intake against predation risk, with the profile of DVM largely modified by the age of zooplankter.

Viewing DVM via general behaviors of zooplankton: A way bridging the success of individual and population

In this paper, we viewed the diel vertical migration (DVM) of copepod in the context of the animal's immediate behaviors of everyday concerns and constructed an instantaneous behavioral criterion effective for DVM and non-DVM behaviors. This criterion employed the function of 'venturous revenue' (VR), which is the product of the food intake and probability of the survival, to evaluate the gains and losses of the behaviors that the copepod could trade-off. The optimal behaviors are to find the optimal habitats to maximize VR. Two types of VRs are formulated and tested by the theoretical analysis and simulations. The sensed VR, monitoring the real-time changes of trade-offs and thereby determining the optimum habitat, is validated to be the effective objective function for the optimization of the behavior; whereas, the realized VR, quantifying the actual profit obtained by an optimal copepod in the sensed-VR-determined habitat, defines the life history of a specific age cohort. The achievement of a robust copepod overwintering stock through integrating the dynamics of the constituent age cohorts subjected to the instantaneous behavioral criterion for DVM clearly exemplified a possible way bridging the immediate pursuit of an individual and the end success of the population. (c) 2005 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

多对一供应链收入共享契约中的采购优化

为研究多对一供应链结构中基于契约协商的采购优化策略问题及其对改善供应链绩效的影响,针对该供应链结构中零售商具有内生保留利润的特点,建立了以制造商为主方、零售商为从方的Stackelberg主从对策模型;给出了在制造商提供契约条款的对称博弈中,零售商采购策略存在唯一最优解、制造商间的博弈存在唯一对称纳什均衡最优解的证明;讨论了收入共享契约下分散供应链决策同集中供应链决策的关系,限定了该结构中供应链协调的条件。最后,通过仿真实验分析验证了契约参数及产品的可替代性对供应链绩效的影响。

多对一供应链零售商驱动型收入共享契约下的生产决策

针对多对一供应链结构中零售商具有较强议价能力的特点,建立了零售商为主方、制造商为从方的Stackelberg主从对策模型;给出在零售商提供契约条款的对称博弈中,制造商生产产品策略存在唯一最优解的证明;分析了零售商契约参数变量的决策问题;讨论了收入共享契约下分散供应链同集中供应链决策的关系.通过仿真实验,分析验证了契约参数及产品的可替代性对供应链绩效的影响。

财政预测模型研究及应用

采用多种科学预测方法与财政经济实际相结合的方式建立了一个综合的财政收支系统动力学模型．这个模型集中了时间序列分析模型，灰色系统预测模型的参数综合性强和系统动力学模型结构分明，用动态反馈方式预测系统发展变化的特点，对东北两大城市预算内财政收支“八五”计划指标进行了全面定量的预测与分析，得到了很好的应用效果。

Changes in innovation styles - comprehensive study of the changes in innovation styles to identify the causes and effects of different influencing factors and capabilities to create a general innovation pattern.

An investigation in innovation management and entrepreneurial management is conducted in this thesis. The aim of the research is to explore changes of innovation styles in the transformation process from a start-up company to a more mature phase of business, to predict in a second step future sustainability and the probability of success. As businesses grow in revenue, corporate size and functional complexity, various triggers, supporters and drivers affect innovation and company's success. In a comprehensive study more than 200 innovative and technology driven companies have been examined and compared to identify patterns in different performance levels. All of them have been founded under the same formal requirements of the Munich Business Plan Competition -a research approach which allowed a unique snapshot that only long-term studies would be able to provide. The general objective was to identify the correlation between different factors, as well as different dimensions, to incremental and radical innovations realised. The 12 hypothesis were formed to prove have been derived from a comprehensive literature review. The relevant academic and practitioner literature on entrepreneurial, innovation, and knowledge management as well as social network theory revealed that the concept of innovation has evolved significantly over the last decade. A review of over 15 innovation models/frameworks contributed to understand what innovation in context means and what the dimensions are. It appears that the complex theories of innovation can be described by the increasing extent of social ingredients in the explanation of innovativeness. Originally based on tangible forms of capital, and on the necessity of pull and technology push, innovation management is today integrated in a larger system. Therefore, two research instruments have been developed to explore the changes in innovations styles. The Innovation Management Audits (IMA Start-up and IMA Mature) provided statements related to product/service development, innovativeness in various typologies, resources for innovations, innovation capabilities in conjunction to knowledge and management, social networks as well as the measurement of outcomes to generate high-quality data for further exploration. In obtaining results the mature companies have been clustered in the performance level low, average and high, while the start-up companies have been kept as one cluster. Firstly, the analysis exposed that knowledge, the process of acquiring knowledge, interorganisational networks and resources for innovations are the most important driving factors for innovation and success. Secondly, the actual change of the innovation style provides new insights about the importance of focusing on sustaining success and innovation ii 16 key areas. Thirdly, a detailed overview of triggers, supporters and drivers for innovation and success for each dimension support decision makers in putting their company in the right direction. Fourthly, a critical review of contemporary strategic management in conjunction to the findings provides recommendation of how to apply well-known management tools. Last but not least, the Munich cluster is analysed providing an estimation of the success probability of the different performance cluster and start-up companies. For the analysis of the probability of success of the newly developed as well as statistically and qualitative validated ICP Model (Innovativeness, Capabilities & Potential) has been developed and applied. While the model was primarily developed to evaluate the probability of success of companies; it has equal application in the situation to measure innovativeness to identify the impact of various strategic initiatives within small or large enterprises. The main findings of the model are that competitor, and customer orientation and acquiring knowledge important for incremental and radical innovation. Formal and interorganisation networks are important to foster innovation but informal networks appear to be detrimental to innovation. The testing of the ICP model h the long term is recommended as one subject of further research. Another is to investigate some of the more intangible aspects of innovation management such as attitude and motivation of mangers. IV

Heritage interpretation challenges and management issues at film-induced tourism heritage attractions: Case studies of Rosslyn Chapel and Alnwick Castle

Although previous research has widely acknowledged the phenomenon of film-induced tourism, there is a paucity of research in relation to management of film-induced tourism at built heritage sites. This research, underpinned by a constructivist paradigm, draws on three distinct fields of study – heritage tourism management, film-induced tourism and heritage interpretation – in order to provide a contribution to the heritage management field and address this particular gap in knowledge. Relying on the method of semi-structured interviews with managers, guides and visitors at Rosslyn Chapel (RC) and Alnwick Castle (AC), this thesis provides a rich understanding of how heritage interpretation can address a range of management challenges at heritage sites where film-induced tourism has occurred. These heritage visitor attractions (HVAs) were specifically selected as case studies as they have played different roles in media products. Rosslyn Chapel (RC) was an actual place named in The Da Vinci Code (TDVC) book and then film, whereas Alnwick Castle (AC) served as a backdrop for the first two Harry Potter (HP) films. Findings of this research include a range of management challenges at both RC and AC such as an increase in visitor numbers; seasonality issues; changes in visitor profile; revenue generation concerns; conservation, access, and visitor experience; and the complex relationship between heritage management and tourism activities. The findings also reveal film-induced tourism’s implications for heritage interpretation such as the various visitors’ expectations for heritage interpretation, changes to heritage interpretation as a result of film-induced tourism, and issues with commodification. These findings also demonstrate that film-induced tourism to some extent influenced visitors’ preferences for heritage interpretation, though visitors’ preferences differed from one to another. This thesis argues that, in the context of film-induced tourism at HVAs, as evident from the two case studies considered, heritage interpretation can be a valuable management tool and can also play a significant role in the quality of the visitors’ experience.

Pricing Algorithms For a Two-sided Internet Advertisement Market

The Google AdSense Program is a successful internet advertisement program where Google places contextual adverts on third-party websites and shares the resulting revenue with each publisher. Advertisers have budgets and bid on ad slots while publishers set reserve prices for the ad slots on their websites. Following previous modelling efforts, we model the program as a two-sided market with advertisers on one side and publishers on the other. We show a reduction from the Generalised Assignment Problem (GAP) to the problem of computing the revenue maximising allocation and pricing of publisher slots under a first-price auction. GAP is APX-hard but a (1-1/e) approximation is known. We compute truthful and revenue-maximizing prices and allocation of ad slots to advertisers under a second-price auction. The auctioneer's revenue is within (1-1/e) second-price optimal.

Evaluation of a Load Profiling Approach to Routing Guaranteed Bandwidth Flows

To support the diverse Quality of Service (QoS) requirements of real-time (e.g. audio/video) applications in integrated services networks, several routing algorithms that allow for the reservation of the needed bandwidth over a Virtual Circuit (VC) established on one of several candidate routes have been proposed. Traditionally, such routing is done using the least-loaded concept, and thus results in balancing the load across the set of candidate routes. In a recent study, we have established the inadequacy of this load balancing practice and proposed the use of load profiling as an alternative. Load profiling techniques allow the distribution of "available" bandwidth across a set of candidate routes to match the characteristics of incoming VC QoS requests. In this paper we thoroughly characterize the performance of VC routing using load profiling and contrast it to routing using load balancing and load packing. We do so both analytically and via extensive simulations of multi-class traffic routing in Virtual Path (VP) based networks. Our findings confirm that for routing guaranteed bandwidth flows in VP networks, load balancing is not desirable as it results in VP bandwidth fragmentation, which adversely affects the likelihood of accepting new VC requests. This fragmentation is more pronounced when the granularity of VC requests is large. Typically, this occurs when a common VC is established to carry the aggregate traffic flow of many high-bandwidth real-time sources. For VP-based networks, our simulation results show that our load-profiling VC routing scheme performs better or as well as the traditional load-balancing VC routing in terms of revenue under both skewed and uniform workloads. Furthermore, load-profiling routing improves routing fairness by proactively increasing the chances of admitting high-bandwidth connections.

Adaptive Weighing Designs for Keyword Value Computation

Attributing a dollar value to a keyword is an essential part of running any profitable search engine advertising campaign. When an advertiser has complete control over the interaction with and monetization of each user arriving on a given keyword, the value of that term can be accurately tracked. However, in many instances, the advertiser may monetize arrivals indirectly through one or more third parties. In such cases, it is typical for the third party to provide only coarse-grained reporting: rather than report each monetization event, users are aggregated into larger channels and the third party reports aggregate information such as total daily revenue for each channel. Examples of third parties that use channels include Amazon and Google AdSense. In such scenarios, the number of channels is generally much smaller than the number of keywords whose value per click (VPC) we wish to learn. However, the advertiser has flexibility as to how to assign keywords to channels over time. We introduce the channelization problem: how do we adaptively assign keywords to channels over the course of multiple days to quickly obtain accurate VPC estimates of all keywords? We relate this problem to classical results in weighing design, devise new adaptive algorithms for this problem, and quantify the performance of these algorithms experimentally. Our results demonstrate that adaptive weighing designs that exploit statistics of term frequency, variability in VPCs across keywords, and flexible channel assignments over time provide the best estimators of keyword VPCs.

Are State legislatures responding to public opinion when allocating funds for tobacco control programs?

This study explored the factors associated with state-level allocations to tobacco-control programs. The primary research question was whether public sentiment regarding tobacco control was a significant factor in the states' 2001 budget decisions. In addition to public opinion, several additional political and economic measures were considered. Significant associations were found between our outcome, state-level tobacco-control funding per capita, and key variables of interest including public opinion, amount of tobacco settlement received, the party affiliation of the governor, the state's smoking rate, excise tax revenue received, and whether the state was a major producer of tobacco. The findings from this study supported our hypothesis that states with citizens who favor more restrictive indoor air policies allocate more to tobacco control. Effective public education to change public opinion and the cultural norms surrounding smoking may affect political decisions and, in turn, increase funding for crucial public health programs.

The distribution of sales revenues from pharmaceutical innovation.

OBJECTIVE: This report updates our earlier work on the returns to pharmaceutical research and development (R&D) in the US (1980 to 1984), which showed that the returns distributions are highly skewed. It evaluates a more recent cohort of new drug introductions in the US (1988 to 1992) and examines how the returns distribution is emerging for drugs with life cycles concentrated in the 1990s versus the 1980s. DESIGN AND SETTING: Methods were described in detail in our earlier reports. The current sample included 110 new drug entities (including 28 orphan drugs), and sales data were obtained for the period 1988 to 1998, which represented between 7 and 11 years of sales for the drugs included. 20 years was chosen as the expected market life for this cohort, and a 2-step procedure was used to project future sales for the drugs--during the period until patent expiry and then beyond patent expiry until the 20-year time-horizon was completed. Thus, the values in the first half of the life cycle are essentially based on realised sales, while those in the second half are projected using information on patent expiry and other inputs. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES AND RESULTS: Peak annual sales for the top decile of drugs introduced between 1988 and 1992 in the US amounted to almost $US1.1 billion compared with peak sales of less than $US175 million (1992 values) for the mean compound. In particular, the top decile accounted for 56% of overall sales revenue. Although the sales distributions were skewed in both our earlier and current analysis, the top decile in the later time-period exhibited more rapid rates of growth after launch, a peak that was more than 50% greater in real terms than for the 1980 to 1984 cohort, and a faster rate of expected decline in sales after patent expiry. One factor contributing to the distribution of sales revenues becoming more skewed over time is the orphan drug phenomenon (i.e. most of the orphan drugs are concentrated at the bottom of the distribution). CONCLUSION: The distribution of sales revenues for new drug compounds is highly skewed in nature. In this regard, the top decile of new drugs accounts for more than half of the total sales generated by the 1988 to 1992 cohort analysed. Furthermore, the distribution of sales revenues for this cohort is more skewed than that of the 1980 to 1984 cohort we analysed in previous research.