财政预测模型研究及应用

采用多种科学预测方法与财政经济实际相结合的方式建立了一个综合的财政收支系统动力学模型．这个模型集中了时间序列分析模型，灰色系统预测模型的参数综合性强和系统动力学模型结构分明，用动态反馈方式预测系统发展变化的特点，对东北两大城市预算内财政收支“八五”计划指标进行了全面定量的预测与分析，得到了很好的应用效果。

A dynamic model of finance revenue and expenditure system has been established based on combining various forecasting methods with finance economic situation. It synthesizes the characteristics of time series analysis model and system dynamics model. Revenue and expenditure targets of a certain city during the eighth five  years plan have been forecasted quantitatively and all  sidedly by means of dynamic feedback form and DYNAMO language. The results are satisfied.