Interpretação e análise do problema da indução sob uma visão fundamentada em teorias de conjuntos e teoria de probabilidades

The following work is to interpret and analyze the problem of induction under a vision founded on set theory and probability theory as a basis for solution of its negative philosophical implications related to the systems of inductive logic in general. Due to the importance of the problem and the relatively recent developments in these fields of knowledge (early 20th century), as well as the visible relations between them and the process of inductive inference, it has been opened a field of relatively unexplored and promising possibilities. The key point of the study consists in modeling the information acquisition process using concepts of set theory, followed by a treatment using probability theory. Throughout the study it was identified as a major obstacle to the probabilistic justification, both: the problem of defining the concept of probability and that of rationality, as well as the subtle connection between the two. This finding called for a greater care in choosing the criterion of rationality to be considered in order to facilitate the treatment of the problem through such specific situations, but without losing their original characteristics so that the conclusions can be extended to classic cases such as the question about the continuity of the sunrise

Impacto do Programa de Saúde da Família sobre indicadores de saúde bucal na população de Natal -RN

The aim of this study was to assess the impact of the Family Health Program (FHP) on a number of oral health indicators in the population of Natal, Brazil. The study is characterized as a quasi-random community intervention trial. The intervention is represented by the implementation of an Oral Health Team (OHT) in the FHP prior to the study. A total of 15 sectors covered by the FHP with OHT were randomly drawn and paired with another 15 sectors, based on socioeconomic criteria, not covered by the teams. A few sectors were lost over the course of the study, resulting in a final number of 22 sectors, 11 covered and 11 not covered. We divided the non-covered areas into two conditions, one in which we considered areas that had some type of assistance program such as the Community Agents Program (CAP), FHP without OHT, BHU (Basic Health Unit) or no assistance, and the other, in which we considered areas that had only BHU or no assistance. Community Health Agents (CHAs) and Dental Office Assistants (DOAs) applied a questionnaire-interview to the most qualified individual of the household and the data obtained per household were transformed into the individual data of 7186 persons. The results show no statistical difference between the oral health outcomes analyzed in the areas covered by OHT in the FHP and in non-covered areas that have some type of assistance program, with a number of indicators showing better conditions in the non-covered areas. When we considered the association between covered and non-covered areas under the second condition, we found a statistical difference in the coverage indicators. Better conditions were found in covered areas for indicators such as I have not been to the dentist in the last year with p < 0.001 and OR of 1.64 and I had no access to dental care with p < 0.001 and OR of 2.22. However, the results show no impact of FHP with OHT on preventive action indicators under both non-covered conditions. This can be clearly seen when we analyze the toothache variable, which showed no significant difference between covered and non-covered areas. This variable is one of the most sensitive when assessing oral health programs, with p of 0.430 under condition 1 and p of 0.038 under condition 2, with CI = 0.70-0.90. In the analysis of health indicators in children where the proportion of deaths in children under age 1, the rate of hospitalization for ARI (Acute Respiratory Infections) in those under age 5 and the proportion of individuals born underweight were considered, a better condition was found in all the outcomes for areas with FHP. Therefore, we can conclude that oral health in the FHP has little effect on oral health indicators, even though the strategy improves the general health conditions of the population, as, for example child health

Desempenho auditivo ao longo do tempo e satisfação dos usuários de implante coclear com perda auditiva pós-lingual

Most cochlear implant (CI) users, who suffer from post lingual hearing loss, are able to perceive sounds and comprehend speech after the implant. The prediction of maximal benefit over time, with the use of CI, can be useful for counseling patients about their expectations in using the new device. The measurement of satisfaction should be of primary interest in medical intervention, as the results may be used for intervention feedback. The purpose of this study is to analyze auditory performance of CI over time, as well as to evaluate users‟ satisfaction. Therefore two types of study designs were employed: a) retrospective cohort study with the analysis of medical records from 59 subjects about auditory performance before and after surgery. Results were submitted to the Kaplan -Meier estimator of cumulative probability and compared to prognostic factors of auditory performance using the logrank test. b) A sectional study design was conducted to evaluate the satisfaction of 51 subjects. The instrument consists of two specific questionnaires: Satisfaction with Amplification in Daily Life SADL and International Outcome Inventory Cochlear Implant IOI- CI. Results show statistical significant differences (p<0,001) in auditory performance before and after CI. The majority obtained satisfactory results of CI use during the first six months. Logrank tests does not indicate significant correlation between the analyzed covariates and the time in which adequate speech perception occurs. SADL e IOI-CI questionnaires indicate that most of the CI users are satisfied with their devices. The SADL detected a 27, 5% insatisfaction amongst CI users in relation to services and costs involved with the CI. The results of the IOI show 4% of insatisfaction with the use of CI and the social environment. In conclusion CI is capable to rehabilitate social auditory function in a short period of time and CI users demonstrate satisfaction with auditory, social and psychological gain offered through CI device

Bolton freeware: aplicativo de avaliação de discrepância de massa dentária desenvolvido pelo programa de pós-graduação em odontologia/UFRN

The calculation of tooth mass discrepancy, essential for good planning and a proper orthodontic finishing, when performed manually, besides being laborious, requires considerable time consumption. The aim of this study was to develop and test Bolton Freeware, a software for analysis of the tooth mass discrepancy of Bolton, aiming to minimize the consumption of time in a less onerous way. The digital analysis of the software was done by means of two-dimensional scanning of plaster study models and compared to manual evaluation (gold standard), using 75 pairs of stone plaster study models divided into two groups according to the magnitude of the Curve of Spee (group I from 0 to 2 mm, group II greater than 2 to 3mm). All the models had permanent dentition and were in perfect condition. The manual evaluation was performed with a digital caliper and a calculator, and the time required to perform the analysis for both methods was recorded and compared. In addition, the software was evaluated by orthodontists regarding its use, by means of questionnaires developed specifically for this purpose. Calibration was performed prior to manual analysis, and excellent levels of inter-rater agreement were achieved, with ICC > 0.75 and r > 0.9 for total and anterior proportion. It was observed in the evaluation of error of the digital method that some teeth showed a significant systematic error, being the highest measured at 0.08 mm. The analysis of total tooth mass discrepancy performed by Bolton Freeware, for those cases in which the curve of Spee is mild and moderate, differ from manual analysis, on average, 0.09 mm and 0.07 mm respectively, for each tooth evaluated, with r> 0, 8 for total and anterior proportion. According to the specificity and sensitivity test, Bolton Freeware has an improved ability to detect true negatives, i.e. the presence of discrepancy. The Bolton analysis digitally performed was faster, with an average difference of time consumed to perform the analysis of Bolton between the two methods of approximately 6 minutes. Most experts interviewed (93%) approved the usability of the software

A teoria da ruína aplicada em um modelo de empresa financeira com risco de crédito

In this work we study a new risk model for a firm which is sensitive to its credit quality, proposed by Yang(2003): Are obtained recursive equations for finite time ruin probability and distribution of ruin time and Volterra type integral equation systems for ultimate ruin probability, severity of ruin and distribution of surplus before and after ruin

Modelo de risco controlado por resseguro e desigualdades para a probabilidade de ruína

In the work reported here we present theoretical and numerical results about a Risk Model with Interest Rate and Proportional Reinsurance based on the article Inequalities for the ruin probability in a controlled discrete-time risk process by Ros ario Romera and Maikol Diasparra (see [5]). Recursive and integral equations as well as upper bounds for the Ruin Probability are given considering three di erent approaches, namely, classical Lundberg inequality, Inductive approach and Martingale approach. Density estimation techniques (non-parametrics) are used to derive upper bounds for the Ruin Probability and the algorithms used in the simulation are presented

Probabilidade no ensino médio

This thesis aims to show teachers and students in teaching and learning in a study of Probability High School, a subject that sharpens the perception and understanding of the phenomea of the random nature that surrounds us. The same aims do with people who are involved in this process understand basic ideas of probability and, when necessary, apply them in the real world. We seek to draw a matched between intuition and rigor and hope therebyto contribute to the work of the teacher in the classroom and the learning process of students, consolidating, deepening and expaning what they have learned in previous contents

Trends in multidrug-resistant tuberculosis

Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is an increasing global problem. The extent and burden of MDR-TB varies significantly from country to country and region to region. Globally, about three per cent of all newly diagnosed patients have MDR-TB and the proportion is higher in patients who had previously received anti-tuberculosis (anti-TB) treatment reflecting the failure of programs designed to ensure complete cure of patients with tuberculosis. The management of MDR-TB is a challenge that should be undertaken by experienced clinicians at centers equipped with reliable laboratory services and implementation of DOTS-Plus strategy.

Prevalência de fatores de risco para doenças crônicas: inquérito populacional mediante entrevistas telefônicas em Botucatu, São Paulo, 2004

OBJETIVO: Descrever resultados da aplicação de um sistema de monitoramento de fatores de risco para doenças crônicas não transmissíveis (DCNT) por meio de entrevistas telefônicas (SIMTEL) no município de Botucatu/SP. MÉTODOS: Entrevistou-se amostra probabilística (n = 1.410) da população de indivíduos com 18 ou mais anos de idade residente em domicílios do município de Botucatu/SP, conectados à rede de telefonia fixa. A amostragem foi realizada em três etapas: sorteio de linhas do cadastro da companhia telefônica; seleção de linhas residenciais ativas; sorteio para entrevista de um morador com 18 ou mais anos de idade por linha elegível. A taxa de sucesso (entrevistas realizadas: linhas elegíveis sorteadas) foi de 86,9%, sendo de 5,8% a proporção de recusas. Foi aplicado um questionário com 74 questões sobre consumo alimentar, atividade física, tabagismo, consumo de bebidas alcoólicas, peso e estatura recordados e auto-referência a diagnósticos médicos de hipertensão arterial e diabetes. Apresentam-se estimativas brutas da prevalência de fatores de risco/proteção para DCNT e estimativas ajustadas que levam em conta a distribuição segundo idade, sexo e escolaridade da população adulta total do município no Censo Demográfico de 2000. RESULTADOS: Foram observadas altas prevalências de excesso de peso (46.7%) e sedentarismo (57.9%). Houve desvantagem para os homens quanto ao consumo excessivo de bebidas alcoólicas e vantagem no que se refere à prática de atividade física em 1 ou mais dias da semana. Nas mulheres, observou-se associação inversa entre escolaridade e os seguintes fatores de risco: obesidade, excesso de peso, sedentarismo, consumo de carnes com gordura e hábito de fumar. Resultado semelhante foi observado para homens, exceto com relação a obesidade e excesso de peso. CONCLUSÕES: A segunda experiência de aplicação do SIMTEL confirmou o desempenho satisfatório e a utilidade do sistema em nosso meio.

Condição ocular dos indivíduos facectomizados na região centro-oeste do estado de São Paulo: estudo populacional

OBJETIVO: Avaliar as causas de baixa visão e cegueira em indivíduos facectomizados, de amostra da população de cidades da região centrooeste do estado de São Paulo. Métodos: Estudo transversal, observacional, feito em cinco cidades da região centro-oeste do estado de São Paulo, em amostra domiciliar e baseada nos dados do último Censo Demográfico (IBGE, 1995), com escolha sistemática dos domicílios. Foi considerada para o presente estudo uma subamostra de indivíduos facectomizados, dos quais foram obtidos dados de identificação e exame oftalmológico completo. Os dados foram avaliados por estatísticas descritivas, análise de freqüência de ocorrência e proporção de concordância, com intervalo de confiança de 95%. RESULTADOS: Dos indivíduos amostrados, 2,37% haviam sido submetidos à facectomia. Dos 201 olhos operados, 26,9% apresentavam acuidade visual compatível com cegueira ou deficiência visual. Com a melhor correção óptica, a acuidade visual permaneceu <0,3 em 19,0%. O exame refracional proporcionou melhora da acuidade visual para 27,9% dos indivíduos facectomizados. As causas de baixa visão foram os erros refrativos não corrigidos, opacidade de cápsula posterior (19,4%), ceratopatia bolhosa (8,3%) coriorretinite cicatricial (8,3%), afacia (8,3%), degeneração macular relacionada a idade (5,5%), leucoma (5,5%), glaucoma (5,5%), atrofia de papila (5,5,%), descolamento de retina (2,8%), atrofia de epitelio pigmentado da retina (2,8%) e alta miopia (2,8%). CONCLUSÃO: Apesar da catarata ser causa de cegueira que pode ser evitável, mesmo após a correção cirúrgica porcentagem expressiva de indivíduos permanece com baixa visão, em geral, em decorrência de fatores relacionados ao seguimento pós-operatório negligenciado.

Inquérito de saúde: comparação dos entrevistados segundo posse de linha telefônica residencial

OBJETIVO: Analisar diferenças quanto a características sociodemográficas e relacionadas à saúde entre indivíduos com e sem linha telefônica residencial. MÉTODOS: Foram analisados os dados do Inquérito de Saúde (ISA-Capital) 2003, um estudo transversal realizado em São Paulo, SP, no mesmo ano. Os moradores que possuíam linha telefônica residencial foram comparados com os que disseram não possuir linha telefônica, segundo as variáveis sociodemográficas, de estilo de vida, estado de saúde e utilização de serviços de saúde. Foram estimados os vícios associados à não-cobertura por parte da população sem telefone, verificando-se sua diminuição após a utilização de ajustes de pós-estratificação. RESULTADOS: Dos 1.878 entrevistados acima de 18 anos, 80,1% possuía linha telefônica residencial. Na comparação entre os grupos, as principais diferenças sociodemográficas entre indivíduos que não possuíam linha residencial foram: menor idade, maior proporção de indivíduos de raça/cor negra e parda, menor proporção de entrevistados casada, maior proporção de desempregados e com menor escolaridade. Os moradores sem linha telefônica residencial realizavam menos exames de saúde, fumavam e bebiam mais. Ainda, esse grupo consumiu menos medicamentos, auto-avaliou-se em piores condições de saúde e usou mais o Sistema Único de Saúde. Ao se excluir da análise a população sem telefone, as estimativas de consultas odontológicas, alcoolismo, consumo de medicamentos e utilização do SUS para realização de Papanicolaou foram as que tiveram maior vício. Após o ajuste de pós-estratificação, houve diminuição do vício das estimativas para as variáveis associadas à posse de linha telefônica residencial. CONCLUSÕES: A exclusão dos moradores sem linha telefônica é uma das principais limitações das pesquisas realizadas por esse meio. No entanto, a utilização de técnicas estatísticas de ajustes de pós-estratificação permite a diminuição dos vícios de não-cobertura.

Efeitos do sexo, do grupo racial e da idade ao abate nas características de carcaça e maciez da carne de caprinos

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Valor nutritivo do feno de braquiária amonizado com uréia ou inoculado com Pleurotus ostreatus

Verificou-se, mediante análises de composição química e ensaio de digestibilidade com ovinos, o efeito dos tratamentos químico (amonização com uréia) e biológico (inoculação com o fungo Pleurotus ostreatus) sobre o valor nutritivo do feno de Brachiaria decumbens. Ambos os tratamentos duraram 42 dias; após esse período, o feno foi seco e moído para fornecimento aos animais. As dietas experimentais foram: feno não tratado (FNT); feno não tratado + uréia (FNT + U); feno inoculado com fungo + uréia (FTB + U); e feno amonizado + feno não tratado (FTQ + FNT). As dietas FNT + U, FTB + U e FTQ + FNT foram isonitrogenadas. Tanto o tratamento químico como o biológico causaram mudanças na composição química do feno. A amonização elevou os teores de proteína bruta (PB) e fibra em detergente ácido (FDA) e reduziu os teores de hemicelulose (HEM) e a proporção de hemicelulose na parede celular (HEM-FDN). Já o tratamento biológico tendeu a aumentar o teor de PB; elevou os teores de FDA, lignina (LIG), a proporção de celulose na parede celular (CEL-FDN) e a proporção de lignina na parede celular (LIG-FDN); e reduziu os teores de fibra em detergente neutro (FDN), HEM e HEM-FDN. Entretanto, diminuiu a digestibilidade da matéria seca (MS), FDN, celulose (CEL) e FDA, mas aumentou o consumo, provavelmente em decorrência do menor teor de FDN e menor tamanho médio de partículas, o que causou maior velocidade de passagem. Os tratamentos biológico e químico são alternativas importantes no incremento do valor nutritivo de materiais lignocelulósicos, todavia, os resultados obtidos neste ensaio não foram satisfatórios.

Aspiration of equine oocytes from immature follicles after treatment with equine pituitary extract (EPE) alone or in combination with hCG

This study examined the effect of treating mares with equine pituitary extract (EPE) alone or in combination with hCG on the recovery rate of immature follicles by transvaginal follicular aspiration (ovum pick-up; OPU). Ten normally cycling crossbred mares aged 3-15 years and weighing 350-400 kg were subjected to each of three treatments in a random sequence with each exposure to a new treatment separated by a rest cycle during which a spontaneous ovulation occurred. The treatments were (1) superovulated with 25 mg EPE and treated with 2500 IU hCG, (2) superovulation with 25 mg EPE, and (3) control (no exogenous treatment). Treatments 7 days after spontaneous ovulation; and all the follicles > 10 mm were aspirated 24 h after the largest follicle achieved a diameter of 27-30 mm for control group, and most follicles reached 22-27 mm for the EPE alone treatment. To the group EPE+hCG, when the follicles reached 22-27 mm, hCG was administered, 24 h before OPU. Superovulation increased the number of follicles available for aspiration. The total number of follicles available for aspiration was 61 in the EPE/hCG group. 63 in the EPE group and 42 in the control. The proportion of follicles aspirated varied from 63.5% to 73.8%. Oocyte recovery rate ranged from 15.0% to 16.7% and the proportion of mares that yielded at least one oocyte was 70% (7/10) in the EPE/hCG, 60% (6/10) in the EPE alone and 50% (5/10) in control group. The EPE/hCG treatment had a higher proportion of follicles with expanded granulose cells (64.4%) than the control (3.3%: p < 0.05) and the EPE treatment (25.0%). The intervals from spontaneous ovulation to aspiration were similar for all treatments (11-12 days). However, superovulatory treatment significantly increased the aspiration to ovulation interval from 15 +/- 4 days for control to 27 +/- 15 days for EPE (p < 0.05) and to 23 +/- 13 days for EPE/hCG treatment with commensurate increases in the time between spontaneous ovulations. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Métodos de superação da dormência e temperatura na germinação de sementes de dioclea violácea

The aim of this experiment was to overcome the dormancy and the effect of different temperatures in Dioclea violacea seeds' germination. Two experiments were developed. In the first, it was studied the use of chemical and mechanical scarification in the overcome dormancy seeds. Therefore, were accomplished seven treatments with four replications of 15 seeds each. The experiment constituted of one testify treatment, five chemical scarification treatments (1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 hours of immersion in concentrated sulfuric acid - H(2)SO(4)) and one mechanical scarification treatment. In the second experiment, was studied the temperature effects on germination seeds; it was constituted on six treatments with four replications with 12 seeds each. The treatments constituted of constant temperatures 15 degrees C, 20 degrees C, 25 degrees C, 30 degrees C and 35 degrees C and the alternate temperature 20-30 degrees C ( 16 and 8 hours, respectively). Germination, died seeds, hard seeds percentages, medium time germination and germination speed index were determined. The data were submitted to the variance analysis, and the averages compared by the Tukey test to 5% of probability and regression analysis. It was observed that the dormancy overcome of Dioclea violacea seeds can be done with chemical scarification, 3 to 5 hours in H(2)SO(4), as much as with mechanical scarification. Also, it was possible to conclude that Dioclea violacea seeds germinate in a wide temperature strip, with constant temperatures of 20 degrees C, 25 degrees C and 35 degrees C benefit the germination process.