Investigating preferences for dynamic electricity tariffs: the effect of environmental and system benefit disclosure

Dynamic electricity pricing can produce efficiency gains in the electricity sector and help achieve energy policy goals such as increasing electric system reliability and supporting renewable energy deployment. Retail electric companies can offer dynamic pricing to residential electricity customers via smart meter-enabled tariffs that proxy the cost to procure electricity on the wholesale market. Current investments in the smart metering necessary to implement dynamic tariffs show policy makers’ resolve for enabling responsive demand and realizing its benefits. However, despite these benefits and the potential bill savings these tariffs can offer, adoption among residential customers remains at low levels. Using a choice experiment approach, this paper seeks to determine whether disclosing the environmental and system benefits of dynamic tariffs to residential customers can increase adoption. Although sampling and design issues preclude wide generalization, we found that our environmentally conscious respondents reduced their required discount to switch to dynamic tariffs around 10% in response to higher awareness of environmental and system benefits. The perception that shifting usage is easy to do also had a significant impact, indicating the potential importance of enabling technology. Perhaps the targeted communication strategy employed by this study is one way to increase adoption and achieve policy goals.

A model analysis of climate and CO2 controls on tree growth in a semi-arid woodland

We used a light-use efficiency model of photosynthesis coupled with a dynamic carbon allocation and tree-growth model to simulate annual growth of the gymnosperm Callitris columellaris in the semi-arid Great Western Woodlands, Western Australia, over the past 100 years. Parameter values were derived from independent observations except for sapwood specific respiration rate, fine-root turnover time, fine-root specific respiration rate and the ratio of fine-root mass to foliage area, which were estimated by Bayesian optimization. The model reproduced the general pattern of interannual variability in radial growth (tree-ring width), including the response to the shift in precipitation regimes that occurred in the 1960s. Simulated and observed responses to climate were consistent. Both showed a significant positive response of tree-ring width to total photosynthetically active radiation received and to the ratio of modeled actual to equilibrium evapotranspiration, and a significant negative response to vapour pressure deficit. However, the simulations showed an enhancement of radial growth in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration (ppm) ([CO2]) during recent decades that is not present in the observations. The discrepancy disappeared when the model was recalibrated on successive 30-year windows. Then the ratio of fine-root mass to foliage area increases by 14% (from 0.127 to 0.144 kg C m-2) as [CO2] increased while the other three estimated parameters remained constant. The absence of a signal of increasing [CO2] has been noted in many tree-ring records, despite the enhancement of photosynthetic rates and water-use efficiency resulting from increasing [CO2]. Our simulations suggest that this behaviour could be explained as a consequence of a shift towards below-ground carbon allocation.

An approximate dynamic programming approach for improving accuracy of lossy data compression by Bloom filters

Bloom filters are a data structure for storing data in a compressed form. They offer excellent space and time efficiency at the cost of some loss of accuracy (so-called lossy compression). This work presents a yes-no Bloom filter, which as a data structure consisting of two parts: the yes-filter which is a standard Bloom filter and the no-filter which is another Bloom filter whose purpose is to represent those objects that were recognised incorrectly by the yes-filter (that is, to recognise the false positives of the yes-filter). By querying the no-filter after an object has been recognised by the yes-filter, we get a chance of rejecting it, which improves the accuracy of data recognition in comparison with the standard Bloom filter of the same total length. A further increase in accuracy is possible if one chooses objects to include in the no-filter so that the no-filter recognises as many as possible false positives but no true positives, thus producing the most accurate yes-no Bloom filter among all yes-no Bloom filters. This paper studies how optimization techniques can be used to maximize the number of false positives recognised by the no-filter, with the constraint being that it should recognise no true positives. To achieve this aim, an Integer Linear Program (ILP) is proposed for the optimal selection of false positives. In practice the problem size is normally large leading to intractable optimal solution. Considering the similarity of the ILP with the Multidimensional Knapsack Problem, an Approximate Dynamic Programming (ADP) model is developed making use of a reduced ILP for the value function approximation. Numerical results show the ADP model works best comparing with a number of heuristics as well as the CPLEX built-in solver (B&B), and this is what can be recommended for use in yes-no Bloom filters. In a wider context of the study of lossy compression algorithms, our researchis an example showing how the arsenal of optimization methods can be applied to improving the accuracy of compressed data.

Response surface analysis of extract yield and flavour intensity of Brazilian cherry (Eugenia uniflora L.) obtained by supercritical carbon dioxide extraction

This work evaluated the effect of pressure and temperature on yield and characteristic flavour intensity of Brazilian cherry (Eugenia uniflora L) extracts obtained by supercritical CO(2) using response surface analysis, which is a simple and efficient method for first inquiries. A complete central composite 2(2) factorial experimental design was applied using temperature (ranging from 40 to 60 degrees C) and pressure (from 150 to 250 bar) as independent variables. A second order model proved to be predictive (p <= 0.05) for the extract yield as affected by pressure and temperature, with better results being achieved at the central point (200 bar and 50 degrees C). For the flavour intensity, a first order model proved to be predictive (p <= 0.05) showing the influence of temperature. Greater characteristic flavour intensity in extracts was obtained for relatively high temperature (> 50 degrees C), Therefore, as far as Brazilian cherry is concerned, optimum conditions for achieving higher extract yield do not necessarily coincide to those for obtaining richer flavour intensity. Industrial relevance: Supercritical fluid extraction (SFE) is an emerging clean technology through which one may obtain extracts free from organic solvents. Extract yields from natural products for applications in food, pharmaceutical and cosmetic industries have been widely disseminated in the literature. Accordingly, two lines of research have industrial relevance, namely, (i) operational optimization studies for high SFE yields and (ii) investigation on important properties extracts are expected to present (so as to define their prospective industrial application). Specifically, this work studied the optimization of SFE process to obtain extracts from a tropical fruit showing high intensity of its characteristic flavour, aiming at promoting its application in natural aroma enrichment of processed foods. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Time-lag in biological responses to landscape changes in a highly dynamic Atlantic forest region

Time-lagged responses of biological variables to landscape modifications are widely recognized, but rarely considered in ecological studies. In order to test for the existence of time-lags in the response of trees, small mammals, birds and frogs to changes in fragment area and connectivity, we studied a fragmented and highly dynamic landscape in the Atlantic forest region. We also investigated the biological correlates associated with differential responses among taxonomic groups. Species richness and abundance for four taxonomic groups were measured in 21 secondary forest fragments during the same period (2000-2002), following a standardized protocol. Data analyses were based on power regressions and model selection procedures. The model inputs included present (2000) and past (1962, 1981) fragment areas and connectivity, as well as observed changes in these parameters. Although past landscape structure was particularly relevant for trees, all taxonomic groups (except small mammals) were affected by landscape dynamics, exhibiting a time-lagged response. Furthermore, fragment area was more important for species groups with lower dispersal capacity, while species with higher dispersal ability had stronger responses to connectivity measures. Although these secondary forest fragments still maintain a large fraction of their original biodiversity, the delay in biological response combined with high rates of deforestation and fast forest regeneration imply in a reduction in the average age of the forest. This also indicates that future species losses are likely, especially those that are more strictly-forest dwellers. Conservation actions should be implemented to reduce species extinction, to maintain old-growth forests and to favour the regeneration process. Our results demonstrate that landscape history can strongly affect the present distribution pattern of species in fragmented landscapes, and should be considered in conservation planning. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Coding behavioural data for cladistic analysis: using dynamic homology without parsimony

Many of the controversies around the concept of homology rest on the subjectivity inherent to primary homology propositions. Dynamic homology partially solves this problem, but there has been up to now scant application of it outside of the molecular domain. This is probably because morphological and behavioural characters are rich in properties, connections and qualities, so that there is less space for conflicting character delimitations. Here we present a new method for the direct optimization of behavioural data, a method that relies on the richness of this database to delimit the characters, and on dynamic procedures to establish character state identity. We use between-species congruence in the data matrix and topological stability to choose the best cladogram. We test the methodology using sequences of predatory behaviour in a group of spiders that evolved the highly modified predatory technique of spitting glue onto prey. The cladogram recovered is fully compatible with previous analyses in the literature, and thus the method seems consistent. Besides the advantage of enhanced objectivity in character proposition, the new procedure allows the use of complex, context-dependent behavioural characters in an evolutionary framework, an important step towards the practical integration of the evolutionary and ecological perspectives on diversity. (C) The Willi Hennig Society 2010.

Exact Search Directions for Optimization of Linear and Nonlinear Models Based on Generalized Orthonormal Functions

A novel technique for selecting the poles of orthonormal basis functions (OBF) in Volterra models of any order is presented. It is well-known that the usual large number of parameters required to describe the Volterra kernels can be significantly reduced by representing each kernel using an appropriate basis of orthonormal functions. Such a representation results in the so-called OBF Volterra model, which has a Wiener structure consisting of a linear dynamic generated by the orthonormal basis followed by a nonlinear static mapping given by the Volterra polynomial series. Aiming at optimizing the poles that fully parameterize the orthonormal bases, the exact gradients of the outputs of the orthonormal filters with respect to their poles are computed analytically by using a back-propagation-through-time technique. The expressions relative to the Kautz basis and to generalized orthonormal bases of functions (GOBF) are addressed; the ones related to the Laguerre basis follow straightforwardly as a particular case. The main innovation here is that the dynamic nature of the OBF filters is fully considered in the gradient computations. These gradients provide exact search directions for optimizing the poles of a given orthonormal basis. Such search directions can, in turn, be used as part of an optimization procedure to locate the minimum of a cost-function that takes into account the error of estimation of the system output. The Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm is adopted here as the optimization procedure. Unlike previous related work, the proposed approach relies solely on input-output data measured from the system to be modeled, i.e., no information about the Volterra kernels is required. Examples are presented to illustrate the application of this approach to the modeling of dynamic systems, including a real magnetic levitation system with nonlinear oscillatory behavior.

Optimization of the physical refining of sunflower oil concerning the final contents of trans-fatty acids

The final contents of total and individual trans-fatty acids of sunflower oil, produced during the deacidification step of physical refining were obtained using a computational simulation program that considered cis-trans isomerization reaction features for oleic, linoleic, and linolenic acids attached to the glycerol part of triacylglycerols. The impact of process variables, such as temperature and liquid flow rate, and of equipment configuration parameters, such as liquid height, diameter, and number of stages, that influence the retention time of the oil in the equipment was analyzed using the response-surface methodology (RSM). The computational simulation and the RSM results were used in two different optimization methods, aiming to minimize final levels of total and individual trans-fatty acids (trans-FA), while keeping neutral oil loss and final oil acidity at low values. The main goal of this work was to indicate that computational simulation, based on a careful modeling of the reaction system, combined with optimization could be an important tool for indicating better processing conditions in industrial physical refining plants of vegetable oils, concerning trans-FA formation.

Dynamic Changes in the Mental Rotation Network Revealed by Pattern Recognition Analysis of fMRI Data

We investigated the temporal dynamics and changes in connectivity in the mental rotation network through the application of spatio-temporal support vector machines (SVMs). The spatio-temporal SVM [Mourao-Miranda, J., Friston, K. J., et al. (2007). Dynamic discrimination analysis: A spatial-temporal SVM. Neuroimage, 36, 88-99] is a pattern recognition approach that is suitable for investigating dynamic changes in the brain network during a complex mental task. It does not require a model describing each component of the task and the precise shape of the BOLD impulse response. By defining a time window including a cognitive event, one can use spatio-temporal fMRI observations from two cognitive states to train the SVM. During the training, the SVM finds the discriminating pattern between the two states and produces a discriminating weight vector encompassing both voxels and time (i.e., spatio-temporal maps). We showed that by applying spatio-temporal SVM to an event-related mental rotation experiment, it is possible to discriminate between different degrees of angular disparity (0 degrees vs. 20 degrees, 0 degrees vs. 60 degrees, and 0 degrees vs. 100 degrees), and the discrimination accuracy is correlated with the difference in angular disparity between the conditions. For the comparison with highest accuracy (08 vs. 1008), we evaluated how the most discriminating areas (visual regions, parietal regions, supplementary, and premotor areas) change their behavior over time. The frontal premotor regions became highly discriminating earlier than the superior parietal cortex. There seems to be a parcellation of the parietal regions with an earlier discrimination of the inferior parietal lobe in the mental rotation in relation to the superior parietal. The SVM also identified a network of regions that had a decrease in BOLD responses during the 100 degrees condition in relation to the 0 degrees condition (posterior cingulate, frontal, and superior temporal gyrus). This network was also highly discriminating between the two conditions. In addition, we investigated changes in functional connectivity between the most discriminating areas identified by the spatio-temporal SVM. We observed an increase in functional connectivity between almost all areas activated during the 100 degrees condition (bilateral inferior and superior parietal lobe, bilateral premotor area, and SMA) but not between the areas that showed a decrease in BOLD response during the 100 degrees condition.

Synthesis Optimization of Hydroxymethylnitrofurazone, an Antichagasic Candidate, Using 3(2) Factorial Design

Hydroxymethylnitrofurazone presents in vitro activity against Trypanosoma cruzi. The optimization of the synthesis of this compound was performed through a 3(2) factorial statistical design. Quadratic model produced the best response surface predicting a maximum yield (82%) close to the center design point with a seven hours reaction and a 1:1.5 (NF:K(2)CO(3)) ratio.

Optimization of a method for determination of phenolic acids in exotic fruits by capillary electrophoresis

In this work, the separation of nine phenolic acids (benzoic, caffeic, chlorogenic, p-coumaric, ferulic, gallic, protocatechuic, syringic, and vanillic acid) was approached by a 32 factorial design in electrolytes consisting of sodium tetraborate buffer(STB) in the concentration range of 10-50 mmol L(-1) and methanol in the volume percentage of 5-20%. Derringer`s desirability functions combined globally were tested as response functions. An optimal electrolyte composed by 50 mmol L(-1) tetraborate buffer at pH 9.2, and 7.5% (v/v) methanol allowed baseline resolution of all phenolic acids under investigation in less than 15 min. In order to promote sample clean up, to preconcentrate the phenolic fraction and to release esterified phenolic acids from the fruit matrix, elaborate liquid-liquid extraction procedures followed by alkaline hydrolysis were performed. The proposed methodology was fully validated (linearity from 10.0 to 100 mu g mL(-1), R(2) > 0.999: LOD and LOQ from 1.32 to 3.80 mu g mL(-1) and from 4.01 to 11.5 mu g mL(-1), respectively; intra-day precision better than 2.8% CV for migration time and 5.4% CV for peak area; inter-day precision better than 4.8% CV for migration time and 4.8-11% CV for peak area: recoveries from 81% to 115%) and applied successfully to the evaluation of phenolic contents of abiu-roxo (Chrysophyllum caimito), wild mulberry growing in Brazil (Morus nigra L.) and tree tomato (Cyphomandra betacea). Values in the range of 1.50-47.3 mu g g(-1) were found, with smaller amounts occurring as free phenolic acids. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multivariant optimization, validation, and application of capillary electrophoresis for simultaneous determination of polyphenols and phenolic acids in Brazilian wines

A method for the simultaneous determination of the stilbene resveratrol, four phenolic acids (syringic, coumaric, caffeic, and gallic acids), and five flavonoids (catechin, rutin, kaempferol, myricetin, and quercetin) in wine by CE was developed and validated. The CE electrolyte composition and instrumental conditions were optimized using 2(7-3) factorial design and response surface analysis, showing sodium tetraborate, MeOH, and their interaction as the most influential variables. The optimal electrophoretic conditions, minimizing the chromatographic resolution statistic values, consisted of 17 mmol/L sodium tetraborate with 20% methanol as electrolyte, constant voltage of 25 kV, hydrodynamic injection at 50 mbar for 3 s, and temperature of 25 degrees C. The R(2) values for linearity varied from 0.994 to 0.999; LOD and LOQ were 0.1 to 0.3 mg/L and 0.4 to 0.8 mg/L, respectively. The RSDs for migration time and peak area obtained from ten consecutive injections were less than 2% and recoveries varied from 97 to 102%. The method was applied to 23 samples of inexpensive Brazilian wines, showing wide compositional variation.

Bioluminescent sensor for naphthalene in air: Cell immobilization and evaluation with a dynamic standard atmosphere generator

A dynamic atmosphere generator with a naphthalene emission source has been constructed and used for the development and evaluation of a bioluminescence sensor based on the bacteria Pseudomonas fluorescens HK44 immobilized in 2% agar gel (101 cell mL(-1)) placed in sampling tubes. A steady naphthalene emission rate (around 7.3 nmol min(-1) at 27 degrees C and 7.4 mLmin(-1) of purified air) was obtained by covering the diffusion unit containing solid naphthalene with a PTFE filter membrane. The time elapsed from gelation of the agar matrix to analyte exposure (""maturation time"") was found relevant for the bioluminescence assays, being most favorable between 1.5 and 3 h. The maximum light emission, observed after 80 min, is dependent on the analyte concentration and the exposure time (evaluated between 5 and 20 min), but not on the flow rate of naphthalene in the sampling tube, over the range of 1.8-7.4 nmol min(-1). A good linear response was obtained between 50 and 260 nmol L-1 with a limit of detection estimated in 20 nmol L-1 far below the recommended threshold limit value for naphthalene in air. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Optimization of the rheological properties of probiotic yoghurts supplemented with milk proteins

This study aimed to optimize the rheological properties of probiotic yoghurts supplemented with skimmed milk powder (SMP) whey protein concentrate (WPC) and sodium caseinate (Na-Cn) by using an experimental design type simplex-centroid for mixture modeling It Included seven batches/trials three were supplemented with each type of the dairy protein used three corresponding to the binary mixtures and one to the ternary one in order to increase protein concentration in 1 g 100 g(-1) of final product A control experiment was prepared without supplementing the milk base Processed milk bases were fermented at 42 C until pH 4 5 by using a starter culture blend that consisted of Streptococcus thermophilus Lactobacillus delbrueckii subsp bulgaricus and Bifidobacterium (Humans subsp lactis The kinetics of acidification was followed during the fermentation period as well the physico-chemical analyses enumeration of viable bacteria and theological characteristics of the yoghurts Models were adjusted to the results (kinetic responses counts of viable bacteria and theological parameters) through three regression models (linear quadratic and cubic special) applied to mixtures The results showed that the addition of milk proteins affected slightly acidification profile and counts of S thermophilus and B animal`s subsp lactis but it was significant for L delbrueckii subsp bulgaricus Partially-replacing SMP (45 g/100 g) with WPC or Na-Cn simultaneously enhanced the theological properties of probiotic yoghurts taking into account the kinetics of acidification and enumeration of viable bacteria (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved

Development of a spectrophotometric Sequential Injection Analysis (SIA) procedure for determination of ammonium: A Response Surface Methodology (RSM) approach

This paper describes the optimization and use of a Sequential Injection Analysis (SIA) procedure for ammonium determination in waters. Response Surface Methodology (RSM) was used as a tool for optimization of a procedure based on the modified Berthelot reaction. The SIA system was designed to (i) prepare the reaction media by injecting an air-segmented zone containing the reagents in a mixing chamber, (ii) to aspirate the mixture back to the holding coil after homogenization, (iii) drive it to a thermostated reaction coil, where the flow is stopped for a previously established time, and (iv) to pump the mixture toward the detector flow cell for the spectrophotometric measurements. Using a 100 mu mol L(-1) ammonium solution, the following factors were considered for optimization: reaction temperature (25 - 45 degrees C), reaction time (30 - 90 s), hypochlorite concentration (20 - 40 mmol L(-1)) nitroprusside concentration (10 - 40 mmol L(-1)) and salicylate concentration (0.1 - 0.3 mol L(-1)). The proposed system fed the statistical program with absorbance data for fast construction of response surface plots. After optimization of the method, figures of merit were evaluated, as well as the ammonium concentration in some water samples. No evidence of statistical difference was observed in the results obtained by the proposed method in comparison to those obtained by a reference method based on the phenol reaction. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.