Risk-sensitivity in sensorimotor control.

Recent advances in theoretical neuroscience suggest that motor control can be considered as a continuous decision-making process in which uncertainty plays a key role. Decision-makers can be risk-sensitive with respect to this uncertainty in that they may not only consider the average payoff of an outcome, but also consider the variability of the payoffs. Although such risk-sensitivity is a well-established phenomenon in psychology and economics, it has been much less studied in motor control. In fact, leading theories of motor control, such as optimal feedback control, assume that motor behaviors can be explained as the optimization of a given expected payoff or cost. Here we review evidence that humans exhibit risk-sensitivity in their motor behaviors, thereby demonstrating sensitivity to the variability of "motor costs." Furthermore, we discuss how risk-sensitivity can be incorporated into optimal feedback control models of motor control. We conclude that risk-sensitivity is an important concept in understanding individual motor behavior under uncertainty.

Risk-based approaches to sustainability in civil engineering

Infrastructure project sustainability assessment typically entails the use of specialised assessment tools to measure and rate project performance against a set of criteria. This paper looks beyond the prevailing approaches to sustainability assessments and explores sustainability principles in terms of project risks and opportunities. Taking a risk management approach to applying sustainability concepts to projects has the potential to reconceptualise decision structures for sustainability from bespoke assessments to becoming a standard part of the project decisionmaking process. By integrating issues of sustainability into project risk management for project planning, design and construction, sustainability is considered within a more traditional business and engineering language. Currently, there is no widely practised approach for objectively considering the environmental and social context of projects alongside the more traditional project risk assessments of time, cost and quality. A risk-based approach would not solve all the issues associated with existing sustainability assessments but it would place sustainability concerns alongside other key risks and opportunities, integrating sustainability with other project decisions.

A laboratory study on risk assessment of microcystin-RR in cropland

The persistence time and risk of microcystin-RR (MC-RR) in cropland via irrigation were investigated under laboratory conditions. In order to evaluate the efficiency of the potential adsorption and biodegradation of MC-RR in cropland and the persistence time of MC-RR for crop irrigation, high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) was used to quantify the amount of MC-RR in solutions. Our study indicated that MC-RR could be adsorbed and biodegraded in cropland soils. MC-RR at 6.5 mg/L could be completely degraded within 6 days with a lag phase of 1 - 2 days. In the presence of humic acid, the same amount of MC-RR could be degraded within 4 days without a lag phase. Accordingly, the persistence time of MC-RR in cropland soils should be about 6 days. This result also suggested the beneficial effects of the organic fertilizer utilization for the biodegradation of MC-RR in cropland soils. Our studies also demonstrated that MC-RR at low concentration (< 10 mu g/L) could accelerate the growth of plants, while high concentration of MC-RR (> 100 mu g/L) significantly inhibited the growth of plants. High sensitivity of the sprouting stage plants to MC-RR treatments as well as the strong inhibitory effects resulting from prolonged irrigation further indicated that this MC-RR growth-inhibition may vary with the duration of irrigation and life stage of the plants. (c) 2007 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Sorption, degradation and mobility of microcystins in Chinese agriculture soils: Risk assessment for groundwater protection

In the present paper, sorption, persistence, and leaching behavior of three microcystin variants in Chinese agriculture soils were examined. Based on this study, the values of capacity factor and slope for three MCs variants in three soils ranged from 0.69 to 6.00, and 1.01 to 1.54, respectively. The adsorption of MCs in the soils decreased in the following order: RR > Dha(7) LR > LR. Furthermore, for each MC variant in the three soils, the adsorption rate in the soils decreased in the following order: soil A > soil C > soil B. The calculated half-time ranged between 7.9 and 17.8 days for MC-RR, 6.0-17.1 days for MC-LR, and 7.1-10.2 days for MC-Dha(7) LR. Results from leaching experiments demonstrated that recoveries of toxins in leachates ranged from 0-16.7% for RR, 73.2-88.9% for LR, and 8.9-73.1% for Dha 7 LR. The GUS value ranged from 1.48 to 2.06 for RR, 1.82-2.88 for LR, and 1.76-2.09 for Dha(7) LR. Results demonstrated the use of cyanobacterial collections as plant fertilizer is likely to be unsafe in soils. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Growth behavior of AlInGaN films

The structural and surface properties of AlInGaN quaternary films grown at different temperatures on GaN templates by metalorganic chemical vapor deposition are investigated. Formation of two quaternary layers is confirmed and the difference between them is pronounced when the growth temperature is increased. The surface is featured with V-shaped pits and cracks, whose characteristics are further found to be strongly dependent on the growth temperature of AlInGaN layers. The two-layer structure is interpreted by taking into account of the strain status in AlInGaN layers. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Growth behavior of AlInGaN films

The structural and surface properties of AlInGaN quaternary films grown at different temperatures on GaN templates by metalorganic chemical vapor deposition are investigated. Formation of two quaternary layers is confirmed and the difference between them is pronounced when the growth temperature is increased. The surface is featured with V-shaped pits and cracks, whose characteristics are further found to be strongly dependent on the growth temperature of AlInGaN layers. The two-layer structure is interpreted by taking into account of the strain status in AlInGaN layers. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Adsorption Behavior of Exogenous Thorium on Soil Contaminated by Rare Earth Industries

The adsorption behavior of exogenous thorium on soil was studied to evaluate the contaminated risk on soil. The adsorption capacity, equilibrium time, distribution coefficient and desorption ability were investigated by the experiments of static adsorption. The strong adsorption ability of exogenous thorium on soil samples was observed by high adsorption ratio (> 92%) and low desorption ratio (< 5%) in equilibrium, and the biggest distribution coefficient was over 10(4). The adsorption capacity and equilibrium time were related to soil properties. According to the results of adsorption, Freundlich equation (r >= 0.916 7) and Elovich equation (R-2 >= 0. 898 0) were primely fit for describing the thermodynamics and kinetics of the adsorption of exogenous thorium on soil samples, respectively, which indicated that the adsorption was belonged to the nonlinear adsorption, and was affected by the diffusion of thorium on soil surface and in mineral interbed. Sequential extraction procedure was employed to evaluate the bound fractions of exogenous thorium adsorbed on soil samples.

Morphology, thermal behavior, and mechanical properties of PA1010/PP and PA1010/PP-g-GMA blends

The modification of polypropylene (PP) was accomplished by melt grafting glycidyl methacrylate (GMA) on its molecular chains. The resulting PP-g-GMA was used to prepare binary blends of polyamide 1010 (PA1010) and PP-g-GMA. Different blend morphologies were observed by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) according to the nature and content of PA1010 used. Comparing the PA1010/PP-g-GMA and PA1010/PP binary blends, the size of the domains of PP-g-GMA were much smaller than that of PP at the same compositions. It was found that mechanical properties of PA1010/PP-g-GMA blends were obviously better than that of PA1010/PP blends, and the mechanical properties were significantly influenced by wetting conditions for uncompatibilized and compatibilized blends. A different dependence of the flexural modulus on water was found for PA1010/PP and PA1010/PP-g-GMA. These behaviors could be attributed to the chemical interactions between the two components and good dispersion in PA1010/PP-g-GMA blends. Thermal and rheological analyses were performed to confirm the possible chemical reactions taking place during the blending process. (C) 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Distribution patterns of infection with multiple types of human papillomaviruses and their association with risk factors

Background: Infection with multiple types of human papillomavirus (HPV) is one of the main risk factors associated with the development of cervical lesions. In this study, cervical samples collected from 1, 810 women with diverse sociocultural backgrounds, who attended to their cervical screening program in different geographical regions of Colombia, were examined for the presence of cervical lesions and HPV by Papanicolau testing and DNA PCR detection, respectively. Principal Findings: The negative binomial distribution model used in this study showed differences between the observed and expected values within some risk factor categories analyzed. Particularly in the case of single infection and coinfection with more than 4 HPV types, observed frequencies were smaller than expected, while the number of women infected with 2 to 4 viral types were higher than expected. Data analysis according to a negative binomial regression showed an increase in the risk of acquiring more HPV types in women who were of indigenous ethnicity (+37.8%), while this risk decreased in women who had given birth more than 4 times (-31.1%), or were of mestizo (-24.6%) or black (-40.9%) ethnicity. Conclusions: According to a theoretical probability distribution, the observed number of women having either a single infection or more than 4 viral types was smaller than expected, while for those infected with 2-4 HPV types it was larger than expected. Taking into account that this study showed a higher HPV coinfection rate in the indigenous ethnicity, the role of underlying factors should be assessed in detail in future studies.

Assessing individual risk attitudes using field data from lottery games

We use information from the television game show with the highest guaranteed average payoff in the United States, Hoosier Millionaire, to analyze risktaking in a high-stakes experiment. We characterize gambling decisions under alternative assumptions about contestant behavior and preferences, and derive testable restrictions on individual risk attitudes based on this characterization. We then use an extensive sample of gambling decisions to estimate distributions of risk-aversion parameters consistent with the theoretical restrictions and revealed preferences. We find that although most contestants display risk-averse preferences, the extent of the risk aversion implied by our estimates varies substantially with the stakes involved in the different decisions.

Gender differences in the risk of HIV infection among persons reporting abstinence, monogamy, and multiple sexual partners in northern Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Monogamy, together with abstinence, partner reduction, and condom use, is widely advocated as a key behavioral strategy to prevent HIV infection in sub-Saharan Africa. We examined the association between the number of sexual partners and the risk of HIV seropositivity among men and women presenting for HIV voluntary counseling and testing (VCT) in northern Tanzania. METHODOLOGY/ PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Clients presenting for HIV VCT at a community-based AIDS service organization in Moshi, Tanzania were surveyed between November 2003 and December 2007. Data on sociodemographic characteristics, reasons for testing, sexual behaviors, and symptoms were collected. Men and women were categorized by number of lifetime sexual partners, and rates of seropositivity were reported by category. Factors associated with HIV seropositivity among monogamous males and females were identified by a multivariate logistic regression model. Of 6,549 clients, 3,607 (55%) were female, and the median age was 30 years (IQR 24-40). 939 (25%) females and 293 (10%) males (p<0.0001) were HIV seropositive. Among 1,244 (34%) monogamous females and 423 (14%) monogamous males, the risk of HIV infection was 19% and 4%, respectively (p<0.0001). The risk increased monotonically with additional partners up to 45% (p<0.001) and 15% (p<0.001) for women and men, respectively with 5 or more partners. In multivariate analysis, HIV seropositivity among monogamous women was most strongly associated with age (p<0.0001), lower education (p<0.004), and reporting a partner with other partners (p = 0.015). Only age was a significant risk factor for monogamous men (p = 0.0004). INTERPRETATION: Among women presenting for VCT, the number of partners is strongly associated with rates of seropositivity; however, even women reporting lifetime monogamy have a high risk for HIV infection. Partner reduction should be coupled with efforts to place tools in the hands of sexually active women to reduce their risk of contracting HIV.

THE DEVELOPMENT AND FEASIBILITY OF A BRIEF RISK REDUCTION INTERVENTION FOR NEWLY HIV-DIAGNOSED MEN WHO HAVE SEX WITH MEN.

Men who have sex with men (MSM) represent more than half of all new HIV infections in the United States. Utilizing a collaborative, community based approach, a brief risk reduction intervention was developed and pilot tested among newly HIV-diagnosed MSM receiving HIV care in a primary care setting. Sixty-five men, within 3 months of diagnosis, were randomly assigned to the experimental condition or control condition and assessed at baseline, 3-month, and 6-month follow-up. Effect sizes were calculated to explore differences between conditions and over time. Results demonstrated the potential effectiveness of the intervention in reducing risk behavior, improving mental health, and increasing use of ancillary services. Process evaluation data demonstrated the acceptability of the intervention to patients, clinic staff, and administration. The results provide evidence that a brief intervention can be successfully integrated into HIV care services for newly diagnosed MSM and should be evaluated for efficacy.

Can information alone change behavior? Response to arsenic contamination of groundwater in Bangladesh

We study how effectively information induces Bangladeshi households to avoid a health risk. The response to information is large and rapid; knowing that the household's well water has an unsafe concentration of arsenic raises the probability that the household changes to another well within one year by 0.37. Households who change wells increase the time spent obtaining water fifteen-fold. We identify a causal effect of information, since incidence of arsenic is uncorrelated with household characteristics. Our door-to-door information campaign provides well-specific arsenic levels without which behavior does not change. Media communicate general information about arsenic less expensively and no less effectively. © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Chimpanzees and bonobos distinguish between risk and ambiguity.

Although recent research has investigated animal decision-making under risk, little is known about how animals choose under conditions of ambiguity when they lack information about the available alternatives. Many models of choice behaviour assume that ambiguity does not impact decision-makers, but studies of humans suggest that people tend to be more averse to choosing ambiguous options than risky options with known probabilities. To illuminate the evolutionary roots of human economic behaviour, we examined whether our closest living relatives, chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) and bonobos (Pan paniscus), share this bias against ambiguity. Apes chose between a certain option that reliably provided an intermediately preferred food type, and a variable option that could vary in the probability that it provided a highly preferred food type. To examine the impact of ambiguity on ape decision-making, we interspersed trials in which chimpanzees and bonobos had no knowledge about the probabilities. Both species avoided the ambiguous option compared with their choices for a risky option, indicating that ambiguity aversion is shared by humans, bonobos and chimpanzees.

Credit scores, cardiovascular disease risk, and human capital.

Credit scores are the most widely used instruments to assess whether or not a person is a financial risk. Credit scoring has been so successful that it has expanded beyond lending and into our everyday lives, even to inform how insurers evaluate our health. The pervasive application of credit scoring has outpaced knowledge about why credit scores are such useful indicators of individual behavior. Here we test if the same factors that lead to poor credit scores also lead to poor health. Following the Dunedin (New Zealand) Longitudinal Study cohort of 1,037 study members, we examined the association between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and the underlying factors that account for this association. We find that credit scores are negatively correlated with cardiovascular disease risk. Variation in household income was not sufficient to account for this association. Rather, individual differences in human capital factors—educational attainment, cognitive ability, and self-control—predicted both credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and accounted for ∼45% of the correlation between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk. Tracing human capital factors back to their childhood antecedents revealed that the characteristic attitudes, behaviors, and competencies children develop in their first decade of life account for a significant portion (∼22%) of the link between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk at midlife. We discuss the implications of these findings for policy debates about data privacy, financial literacy, and early childhood interventions.