Insiders´ views as a predictor of stock performance : can insider trading be used to predict stock performance on the United States stock market?

This thesis studies the possibility of using information on insiders’ transactions to forecast future stock returns after the implementation of Sarbanes Oxley Act in July 2003. Insider transactions between July 2003 and August 2009 are analysed with regression tests to identify the relationships between insiders’ transactions and future stock returns. This analysis is complemented with rudimentary bootstrapping procedures to verify the robustness of the findings. The underlying assumption of the thesis is that insiders constantly receive pieces of information that indicate future performance of the company. They may not be allowed to trade on large and tangible pieces of information but they can trade on accumulation of smaller, intangible pieces of information. Based on the analysis in the thesis insiders’ profits were found not to differ from the returns from broad stock index. However, their individual transactions were found to be linked to future stock returns. The initial model was found to be unstable but some of the predictive power could be sacrificed to achieve greater stability. Even after sacrificing some predictive power the relationship was significant enough to allow external investors to achieve abnormal profits after transaction costs and taxes. The thesis does not go into great detail about timing of transactions. Delay in publishing insiders’ transactions is not taken into account in the calculations and the closed windows are not studied in detail. The potential effects of these phenomena are looked into and they do not cause great changes in the findings. Additionally the remuneration policy of an insider or a company is not taken into account even though it most likely affects the trading patterns of insiders. Even with the limitations the findings offer promising opportunities for investors to improve their investment processes by incorporating additional information from insiders’ transaction into their decisions. The findings also raise questions on how insider trading should be regulated. Insiders achieve greater returns than other investors based on superior information. On the other hand, more efficient information transfer could warrant more lenient regulation. The fact that insiders’ returns are dominated by the large investment stake they maintain all the time in their own companies also speaks for more leniency. As Sarbanes Oxley Act considerably modified the insider trading landscape, this analysis provides information that has not been available before. The thesis also constitutes a thorough analysis of insider trading phenomenon which has previously been somewhat separated into several studies.

Frugivory on Margaritaria nobilis L.f. (Euphorbiaceae): poor investment and mimetism

Dehiscent fruits of Euphorbiaceae usually have two stages of seed dispersal, autochory followed by myrmecochory. Two stages of Margaritaria nobilis seed dispersal were described, the first stage autochoric followed by ornithocoric. Their dehiscent fruits are green and after they detached from the tree crown and fall on the ground, they open and expose blue metallic cocas. We studied the seed dispersal system of Margaritaria nobilis in a semi-deciduous forest in Brazil. In 80 h of focal observations, we recorded only 12 visits of frugivores, however the thrush Turdus leucomelas was the only frugivore that swallowed the fruits on the tree crown. Pitylus fuliginosus (Fringilidae) and Pionus maximiliani (Psittacidae) were mainly pulp eaters, dropping the seeds below the tree. On the forest floor, after fruits dehiscence, jays (Cyanocorax chrysops), guans (Penelope superciliaris), doves (Geotrygon montana) and collared-peccaries (Pecari tajacu) were observed eating the blue diaspores of M. nobilis. Experiments in captivity showed that scaly-headed parrots (Pionus maximiliani), toco toucans (Ramphastos toco), jays (Cyanochorax chrysops), and guans (Penelope superciliaris) consumed the fruits and did not prey on the seeds before consumption. The seeds collected from the feces did not germinate in spite of the high viability. The two stages of seed dispersal in M. nobilis resembles the dispersal strategies of some mimetic species. However M. nobilis seeds are associated with an endocarp, it showed low investment in nutrients, and consistent with this hypothesis, M. nobilis shared important characteristics with mimetic fruits, such as bright color display, long seed dormancy and protection by secondary compounds.

Factors Affecting Consumer Investment Intentions. Empirical Evidence from Finland

The thesis aims to build a theoretical model to explain consumer investment intentions in stocks and investment funds. The model examines the relationships between subjective investment knowledge, expected sacrifice, expected investment value, compatibility, perceived behavioral control and investment intentions. The data was collected via web-based survey and consisted of 45- to 65-year-old Finnish consumers (n=154). Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), structural equation modeling (SEM) and t-tests were applied in analyzing the data. The results suggest that among average household consumers expected investment value consists of three dimensions, namely, economic, functional, and emotional, whereas expected sacrifice consists of effort, financial risk, source risk, and psychological risk. Two structural models were assessed, one for stock investments and one for investment funds. Whereas the models presented somewhat different outcomes, in both models compatibility had an essential role in explaining consumer investment intentions. Compatibility was affected by expected investment value and expected sacrifice. Subjective investment knowledge impacted consumers’ evaluations of the value and sacrifices. The effect of perceived behavioral control on investment intentions was rather small, however significant. Moreover, the results suggest that there are significant differences between consumers with no investment experience and consumers with investment experience in subjective investment knowledge, the dimensions of expected sacrifices and expected investment value, perceived behavioral control, compatibility and investment intentions.

Effect of pyloroplasty and fundectomy on the delay of gastric emptying and gastrointestinal transit of liquid elicited by acute blood volume expansion in awake rats

We evaluated the effects of fundectomy and pyloroplasty on the delay of gastric emptying (GE) and gastrointestinal (GI) transit of liquid due to blood volume (BV) expansion in awake rats. Male Wistar rats (N = 76, 180-250 g) were first submitted to fundectomy (N = 26), Heinecke-Mikulicz pyloroplasty (N = 25) or SHAM laparotomy (N = 25). After 6 days, the left external jugular vein was cannulated and the animals were fasted for 24 h with water ad libitum. The test meal was administered intragastrically (1.5 ml of a phenol red solution, 0.5 mg/ml in 5% glucose) to normovolemic control animals and to animals submitted to BV expansion (Ringer-bicarbonate, iv infusion, 1 ml/min, volume up to 5% body weight). BV expansion decreased GE and GI transit rates in SHAM laparotomized animals by 52 and 35.9% (P<0.05). Fundectomy increased GE and GI transit rates by 61.1 and 67.7% (P<0.05) and prevented the effect of expansion on GE but not on GI transit (13.9% reduction, P<0.05). Pyloroplasty also increased GE and GI transit rates by 33.9 and 44.8% (P<0.05) but did not prevent the effect of expansion on GE or GI transit (50.7 and 21.1% reduction, P<0.05). Subdiaphragmatic vagotomy blocked the effect of expansion on GE and GI transit in both SHAM laparotomized animals and animals submitted to pyloroplasty. In conclusion 1) the proximal stomach is involved in the GE delay due to BV expansion but is not essential for the establishment of a delay in GI transit, which suggests the activation of intestinal resistances, 2) pyloric modulation was not apparent, and 3) vagal pathways are involved

Delay in gallbladder emptying during the perimenopausal period

A pilot study has ascribed an important role in gallbladder motility and emptying to the perimenopausal period. To assess the effect of this period on gallbladder emptying and cholelithogenesis, 25 women in the perimenopausal period without gallbladder disease were submitted to cholangiography and two ultrasound exams. The time for gallbladder emptying and the presence of cholelithiasis were assessed. All patients presented a delay in gallbladder emptying with no relationship to the pre- or postmenopausal period. This finding was not related to lithogenesis. Gallbladder emptying time is longer during the perimenopausal period.

The Brazilian investment in science and technology

An analysis of Brazilian federal expenditures in science and technology is presented is this study. The 1990-1999 data were compiled from records provided by two federal agencies (MCT and CNPq) responsible for managing most of the national budget related to these activities. The results indicate that the federal investments in Brazilian science and technology stagnated during the last decade (US$ 2.32 billion in 1990, US$ 2.39 billion in 1996, and US$ 2.36 billion in 1999). In contrast, a great increase in private investments in research was acknowledged both by industry and by the government during the same period, from US$ 2.12 to US$ 4.64 billion. However, this investment did not result in an increase in invention patents granted to residents (492 in 1990 and only 232 in 1997) or in a reduction of patent costs. Despite this unfavorable scenario, the number of graduate programs in the country has increased two-fold in the last decade and the contribution of Brazilians to the database of the Institute for Scientific Information has increased 4.7-fold from 1990 (2,725 scientific publications) to 2000 (12,686 scientific publications). Unstable federal resources for science, together with the poor returns of private resources in terms of developing new technologies, may jeopardize the future of Brazilian technological development.

Treatment delay and radiological errors in patients with bone metastases

During routine investigations, we are surprised to find that therapy for bone metastases is sometimes delayed for a considerable period of time. To determine the extent of this delay and its causes, we reviewed the medical records of symptomatic patients seen at our hospital who had been recently diagnosed as having bone metastases for the last four years. The treatment delay was defined as the interval between presentation with symptoms and definitive treatment for bone metastases. The diagnostic delay was defined as the interval between presentation with symptoms and diagnosis of bone metastases. The results of diagnostic radiological examinations were also reviewed for errors. The study population included 76 males and 34 females with a median age of 66 years. Most bone metastases were diagnosed radiologically. Over 75% of patients were treated with radiotherapy. The treatment delay ranged from 2 to 307 days, with a mean of 53.3 days. In 490 radiological studies reviewed, we identified 166 (33.9%) errors concerning 62 (56.4%) patients. The diagnostic delay was significantly longer for patients with radiological errors than for patients without radiological errors (P < 0.001), and much of it was due to radiological errors. In conclusion, the treatment delay in patients with symptomatic bone metastases was much longer than expected, and much of it was caused by radiological errors. Considerable efforts should therefore be made to more carefully examine the radiological studies in order to ensure prompt treatment of bone metastases.

Foreign Direct Investment and Shareholder Wealth Gains: Evidence from Finnish FDI in China

In Finnish discourse, “The China Effect” refers to the surge of offshoring activities by Western companies to China during the past couple of decades. Inspired by event studies concerning announcements of foreign direct investment, this thesis investigates the market’s reaction to Finnish companies’ announcement of FDI targeting the People’s Republic of China. Standard event study methodology is applied to 135 announcements related to subsidiaries, joint ventures and acquisitions between 1997 and 2014. The data is checked for contamination by unrelated coinciding events and outliers. A positive average abnormal return is found to take place on the date of the announcement. Additionally, the abnormal returns are found to exist only for projects announced before 2008, and only when the investment project is new, as opposed to investments made to extend previously established projects. Ownership arrangement and the novelty of facilities do not influence the market’s reaction towards the investment announcement.

Foreign Direct Investment, Clean Development Mechanism, and Environmental Management: A case of Sub-Saharan Africa

This doctoral dissertation explores the contribution of environmental management practices, the so-called clean development mechanism (CDM) projects, and foreign direct investment (FDI) in achieving sustainable development in developing countries, particularly in Sub- Saharan Africa. Because the climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions is one of the most serious global environmental challenges, the main focus is on the causal links between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, energy consumption, and economic development in Sub-Saharan Africa. In addition, the dissertation investigates the factors that have affected the distribution of CDM projects in developing countries and the relationships between FDI and other macroeconomic variables of interest. The main contribution of the dissertation is empirical. One of the publications uses crosssectional data and Tobit and Poisson regressions. Three of the studies use time-series data and vector autoregressive and vector error correction models, while two publications use panel data and panel data estimation methods. One of the publications uses thus both timeseries and panel data. The concept of Granger causality is utilized in four of the publications. The results indicate that there are significant differences in the Granger causality relationships between CO2 emissions, energy consumption, economic growth, and FDI in different countries. It appears also that the causality relationships change over time. Furthermore, the results support the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis but only for some of the countries. As to CDM activities, past emission levels, institutional quality, and the size of the host country appear to be among the significant determinants of the distribution of CDM projects. FDI and exports are also found to be significant determinants of economic growth.

Issues in the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership: A critical discourse analysis

Negotiating trade agreements is an important part of government trade policies, economic planning and part of the globally operating trading system of today. European Union and the United States have been active in the formation of trade agreements in global comparison. Now these two economic giants are engaged in negotiations to form their own trade agreement, the so called Transnational Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). The purpose of this thesis is to understand the reasons for making a trade agreement between two economic areas and understanding the issues it may include in the case of the TTIP. The TTIP has received a great deal of attention in the media. The opinions towards the partnership have been extreme, and the debate has been heated. The purpose of this study is to introduce the nature of the public discussion regarding the TTIP from Spring 2013 until 2014. The research problem is to find out what are the main issues in the agreement and what are the values influencing them. The study was conducted applying methods of critical discourse analysis to the chosen data. This includes gathering the issues from the data based on the attention each has received in the discussion. The underlying motives for raising different issues were analysed by investigating the authors’ position in the political, economic and social circuits. The perceived economic impacts of the TTIP are also under analysis with the same criteria. Some of the most respected economic newspapers globally were included in the research material as well as papers or reports published by the EU and global organisations. The analysis indicates a clear dichotomy of the attitudes towards the TTIP. Key problems include lack of transparency in the negotiations, the misunderstood investor-state dispute settlement, the constantly expanding regulatory issues and the risk of protectionism. The theory and data does suggest that the removal of tariffs is an effective tool for reaching economic gains in the TTIP and even more effective would be the reducing of non-tariff barriers, such as protectionism. Critics are worried over the rising influence of corporations over governments. The discourse analysis reveals that the supporters of the TTIP have values related to increasing welfare through economic growth. Critics do not deny the economic benefits but raise the question of inequality as a consequence. Overall they represent softer values such as sustainable development and democracy as a counter-attack to the corporate values of efficiency and the maximising of profits.