Comparative analysis between statistical and artificial intelligence models in business failure prediction

A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.

Survival Analysis Employed in Predicting Corporate Failure: A Forecasting Model Proposal

In face of the current economic and financial environment, predicting corporate bankruptcy is arguably a phenomenon of increasing interest to investors, creditors, borrowing firms, and governments alike. Within the strand of literature focused on bankruptcy forecasting we can find diverse types of research employing a wide variety of techniques, but only a few researchers have used survival analysis for the examination of this issue. We propose a model for the prediction of corporate bankruptcy based on survival analysis, a technique which stands on its own merits. In this research, the hazard rate is the probability of ‘‘bankruptcy’’ as of time t, conditional upon having survived until time t. Many hazard models are applied in a context where the running of time naturally affects the hazard rate. The model employed in this paper uses the time of survival or the hazard risk as dependent variable, considering the unsuccessful companies as censured observations.

Comparative Analysis between Statistical and Artificial Intelligence Models in Business Failure Prediction

A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.

How logrolling can explain the failure of the government coalition in Brazil

This article presents an analysis of the behavior of federal representatives in the Brazilian House of Representatives between 1995 and 1998, when a series of constitutional amendments were presented by the president to be voted on by Congress. The objective is to show that the lack of a stable government coalition resulted in costs to society that were not anticipated by the government. The study argues that a logroll - a trade of votes - was the strategy used by the government in order to guarantee the number of votes necessary to approve the amendments. This strategy created a vicious system in which representatives would only vote with the government if they had benefits in return.

O uso do "Face-Hand Test" como instrumento para rastrear as síndromes psicorgânicas: estudo piloto

Foi aplicada uma versão reduzida do "Face-Hand Test", o FHT-R, em 91 pessoas com 65 anos ou mais em uma amostra ao acaso de idosos vivendo na comunidade (São Paulo, Brasil), com objetivo de testar a habilidade do instrumento em detectar as síndromes psicorgânicas. Os escores do FHT-R foram comparados com as avaliações de um psiquiatra utilizando uma entrevista semi-estruturada, a "Clinical Interview Schedule". Cinco pessoas foram consideradas como sendo portadoras de distúrbios psicorgânicos e 86 como não sendo portadoras de tais distúrbios. No ponto de corte 0/1 os coeficientes de validação obtidos foram: sensibilidade 60%, especificidade 94%, valor prognóstico positivo 38%, valor prognóstico negativo 98%, e taxa de classificação incorreta 8%. A utilização do Teste em pesquisas epidemiológicas é discutida no corpo do trabalho.

Development of a penetration test for timber impregnation products for use in old buildings

This paper studies the application of commercial biocides to old maritime pine timber structures (Pinus pinaster Ait.) that have previously been impregnated with other products. A method was developed in the laboratory to be used in situ to determine the impregnation depth achieved by a new generation biocide product applied to timber from an old building. This timber had once been treated with an unknown product difficult to characterize without extensive analysis. The test was initially developed in laboratory conditions and later tested on elements of the roof structure of an 18th century building. In both cases the results were promising and mutually consistent with penetration depths for some treatments reaching 2.0 cm. The application in situ proved the tests viability and simplicity of execution giving a clear indication on the feasibility of possible re-treatments.

Health related quality of life in patients with refractory chronic heart failure undergoing cardiac resynchronization: type of therapeutic response

The benefits of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) in the health-related quality of life (HRQL) are largely demonstrated in selected patients with severe congestive heart failure (CHF). However, the differences between responders and non-responders, with regard to the effect of CRT in the various dimensions that constitute HRQL are still a matter of discussion. Objective: To evaluate the impact of CRT on the HRQL of patients with CHF refractory to optimal pharmacological therapy, within 6 months after CRT. Methods: 43 patients, submitted to successful implantation of CRT, were evaluated in hospital just before intervention and in the outpatient clinic within 6 months after CRT. HRQL was analyzed based on the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ). Patients were classified as super-responders (ejection fraction of left ventricle - LVEF - ≥45% post-CRT), n=15, responders (sustained improvement in functional class and LVEF increased by 15%), n=19, and non-responders (no clinical or LVEF improvement), n=9. Results: In the group of super-responders, CRT was associated with an improvement in HRQL for the various fields and sums assessed (ρ<0.05); in responders, CRT has been associated with an improvement of HRQL in the various fields and sums, except in the self-efficacy dimension (ρ<0.05); in non-responders, CRT was not associated with improvement of HRQL. Conclusion: In a population with severe CHF undergoing CRT, the patients with clinical and echocardiographic positive response, obtained a favorable impact in all dimensions of HRQL, while the group without response to CRT showed no improvement. These data reinforces the importance of HRQL as a multidimensional tool for assessment of benefits in clinical practice.

Evaluating the quality of life in patients with refractory chronic heart failure undergoing cardiac resynchronization regarding the type of therapeutic response

The benefits of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) in the quality of life have been largely demonstrated in selected patients with severe congestive heart failure (CHF). However, the differences between responders and non-responders, with regard to the effect of CRT in the various dimensions of quality of life is still a matter of discussion. Objective: to evaluate the impact of CRT on the quality of life of patients with CHF refractory to optimal pharmacological therapy, within 6 months after CRT.

Relation of happiness, hope and affection with quality of life in patients with heart failure

Introduction: Meeting the actual role of positive psychology, begins to be recognized the relation of positive variables with health. Objective: To know the relation of happiness, hope and affection with quality of life in individuals with heart failure. Population and Methodology: 128 individuals with heart failure, 98 men and 30 women, 61.9±12,1 years of age, 6,6±3,9 years in school and 74,2% retired because of this disease. 56,3% were in Class III of New York Heart Association, with poor left ventricular ejection fraction (25,3±6,2%). The clinical history was of 9,4±8,5 years for this heart disease and had at least one hospitalization due to heart failure with 51,6% having ischemic heart disease.

Happiness, hope and affection as predictors of quality of life and functionality of individuals with heart failure at 3 month follow up

Introduction: Meeting the actual role of positive psychology, begins to be recognized the contribution of positive variables in health outcomes. Objective: To know the contribution of happiness, hope and affection individually and as a whole in the quality of life and functionality of individuals with heart failure. Population and Methodology: 128 individuals with heart failure, 98 men and 30 women, 61.9±12,1 years of age, 6,6±3,9 years of school and 74,2% retired because of this disease. 56,3% were in Class III of New York Heart Association, with poor left ventricular ejection fraction (25,3±6,2%). The clinical history was of 9,4±8,5 years for this heart disease and had at least one hospitalization due to heart failure with 51,6% having ischemic heart disease.

Conversor estático de potência tolerante a falhas

O trabalho apresentado nesta dissertação refere-se à concepção, projecto e realização experimental de um conversor estático de potência tolerante a falhas. Foram analisados trabalhos de investigação sobre modos de falha de conversores electrónicos de potência, topologias de conversores tolerantes a falhas, métodos de detecção de falhas, entre outros. Com vista à concepção de uma solução, foram nomeados e analisados os principais modos de falhas para três soluções propostas de conversores com topologias tolerantes a falhas onde existem elementos redundantes em modo de espera. Foram analisados os vários aspectos de natureza técnica dos circuitos de potência e guiamento de sinais onde se salientam a necessidade de tempos mortos entre os sinais de disparo de IGBT do mesmo ramo, o isolamento galvânico entre os vários andares de disparo, a necessidade de minimizar as auto-induções entre o condensador DC e os braços do conversor de potência. Com vista a melhorar a fiabilidade e segurança de funcionamento do conversor estático de potência tolerante a falhas, foi concebido um circuito electrónico permitindo a aceleração da actuação normal de contactores e outro circuito responsável pelo encaminhamento e inibição dos sinais de disparo. Para a aplicação do conversor estático de potência tolerante a falhas desenvolvido num accionamento com um motor de corrente contínua, foi implementado um algoritmo de controlo numa placa de processamento digital de sinais (DSP), sendo a supervisão e actuação do sistema realizados em tempo-real, para a detecção de falhas e actuação de contactores e controlo de corrente e velocidade do motor utilizando uma estratégia de comando PWM. Foram realizados ensaios que, mediante uma detecção adequada de falhas, realiza a comutação entre blocos de conversores de potência. São apresentados e discutidos resultados experimentais, obtidos usando o protótipo laboratorial.

Quality of life in dilated cardiomyopathy with refractory chronic heart failure undergoing devices implantation

Heart failure is the final stage of most of cardiac diseases. It is a complex syndrome in which the patients should have the following features: symptoms of heart failure, typically shortness of breath at rest or during exertion, and/or fatigue; signs of fluid retention such as pulmonary congestion or ankle swelling; and objective evidence of an abnormality of the structure or function of the heart at rest. This progressive syndrome as a high incidence and prevalence and poor prognosis: four-year mortality is around 50% with 40% of the patients admitted to hospital dying or readmitted within a year. With ageing, many patients will develop chronic heart failure, which, because of its symptoms, patient’s awareness of their risk of dying, and the effects of therapy, together with frequent hospitalizations, has considerable impact on patient’s health-related quality of life.

Paleomagnetic study of the Great Foum Zguid dyke (southern Morocco): A positive contact test related to metasomatic processes

When a paleomagnetic pole is sought for in an igneous body, the host rocks should be subjected to a contact test to assure that the determined paleopole has the age of the intrusion. If the contact test is positive, it precludes the possibility that the measured magnetization is a later effect. Therefore, we investigated the variations of the remanent magnetization along cross-sections of rocks hosting the Foum Zguid dyke (southern Morocco) and the dyke itself. A positive contact test was obtained, but it is mainly related with Chemical/Crystalline Remanent Magnetization due to metasomatic processes in the host-rocks during magma intrusion and cooling, and not only with Thermo-Remanent Magnetization as ordinarily assumed in standard studies. Paleomagnetic data obtained within the dyke then reflect the Earth magnetic field during emplacement of this well-dated (196.9 +/- 1.8 Ma) intrusion.

Development of an in situ penetration test for the uptake of preservatives in applied wood

This paper concerns the study of biocides application in old timber structures of maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ail.), previously impregnated with other products. A method was developed in laboratory to determine in situ the penetration depth of a product applied superficially. As initial treatment, three traditional products for sawn timber for buildings were used and, for new treatments, two newer, more environmentally benign products were used. Their ability to penetrate the pre-treated surfaces was evaluated after 1, 2 and 3 applications at 24 hours intervals and the results obtained are presented. Finally, the applicability of the developed test to the in-situ evaluation of timber structures is also discussed.