Offshore wind power forecasting error and electricity market implications

Wind energy has been identified as key to the European Union’s 2050 low carbon economy. However, as wind is a variable resource and stochastic by nature, it is difficult to plan and schedule the power system under varying wind power generation. This paper investigates the impacts of offshore wind power forecast error on the operation and management of a pool-based electricity market in 2050. The impact of the magnitude and variance of the offshore wind power forecast error on system generation costs, emission costs, dispatch-down of wind, number of start-ups and system marginal price is analysed. The main findings of this research are that the magnitude of the offshore wind power forecast error has the largest impact on system generation costs and dispatch-down of wind, but the variance of the offshore wind power forecast error has the biggest impact on emissions costs and system marginal price. Overall offshore wind power forecast error variance results in a system marginal price increase of 9.6% in 2050.

A Tight Upper Bound on Bit Error Rate of Joint OFDM and Multi-Carrier Index Keying

This letter investigates performance enhancement by the concept of multi-carrier index keying in orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) systems. For the performance evaluation, a tight closed-form approximation of the bit error rate (BER) is derived introducing the expression for the number of bit errors occurring in both the index domain and the complex domain, in the presence of both imperfect and perfect detection of active multi-carrier indices. The accuracy of the derived BER results for various cases are validated using simulations, which can provide accuracy within 1 dB at favorable channels.

Impact of offshore wind power forecast error in a carbon constraint electricity market

This paper investigates the impacts of offshore wind power forecast error on the operation and management of a pool-based electricity market in 2050. The impact from offshore wind power forecast errors of up to 2000 MW on system generation costs, emission costs, dispatch-down of wind, number of start-ups and system marginal price are analysed. The main findings of this research are an increase in system marginal prices of approximately 1% for every percentage point rise in the offshore wind power forecast error regardless of the average forecast error sign. If offshore wind power generates less than forecasted (−13%) generation costs and system marginal prices increases by 10%. However, if offshore wind power generates more than forecasted (4%) the generation costs decrease yet the system marginal prices increase by 3%. The dispatch down of large quantities of wind power highlights the need for flexible interconnector capacity. From a system operator's perspective it is more beneficial when scheduling wind ahead of the trading period to forecast less wind than will be generated.

Two-Way Relaying under the Presence of Relay Transceiver Hardware Impairments

Hardware impairments in physical transceivers are known to have a deleterious effect on communication systems; however, very few contributions have investigated their impact on relaying. This paper quantifies the impact of transceiver impairments in a two-way amplify-and-forward configuration. More specifically, the effective signal-to-noise-and-distortion ratios at both transmitter nodes are obtained. These are used to deduce exact and asymptotic closed-form expressions for the outage probabilities (OPs), as well as tractable formulations for the symbol error rates (SERs). It is explicitly shown that non-zero lower bounds on the OP and SER exist in the high-power regime---this stands in contrast to the special case of ideal hardware, where the OP and SER go asymptotically to zero.

Performance analysis of switch-and-stay combining in two-way relay systems with analog network coding and time-division broadcast protocols

In this paper, weconsider switch-and-stay combining (SSC) in two-way relay systems with two amplify-and-forward relays, one of which is activated to assist the information exchange between the two sources. The system operates in either analog network coding (ANC) protocol where the communication is only achieved with the help of the active relay or timedivision broadcast (TDBC) protocol where the direct link between two sources can be utilized to exploit more diversity gain. In both cases, we study the outage probability and bit error rate (BER) for Rayleigh fading channels. In particular, we derive closed-form lower bounds for the outage probability and the average BER, which remain tight for different fading conditions. We also present asymptotic analysis for both the outage probability and the average BER at high signalto-noise ratio. It is shown that SSC can achieve the full diversity order in two-way relay systems for both ANC and TDBC protocols with proper switching thresholds. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

System level DSP synthesis using voltage overscaling, unequal error protection & adaptive quality tuning

In this paper, we propose a system level design approach considering voltage over-scaling (VOS) that achieves error resiliency using unequal error protection of different computation elements, while incurring minor quality degradation. Depending on user specifications and severity of process variations/channel noise, the degree of VOS in each block of the system is adaptively tuned to ensure minimum system power while providing "just-the-right" amount of quality and robustness. This is achieved, by taking into consideration system level interactions and ensuring that under any change of operating conditions only the "lesscrucial" computations, that contribute less to block/system output quality, are affected. The design methodology applied to a DCT/IDCT system shows large power benefits (up to 69%) at reasonable image quality while tolerating errors induced by varying operating conditions (VOS, process variations, channel noise). Interestingly, the proposed IDCT scheme conceals channel noise at scaled voltages. ©2009 IEEE.

Design methodology to trade off power, output quality and error resiliency: Application to color interpolation filtering

Power dissipation and tolerance to process variations pose conflicting design requirements. Scaling of voltage is associated with larger variations, while Vdd upscaling or transistor up-sizing for process tolerance can be detrimental for power dissipation. However, for certain signal processing systems such as those used in color image processing, we noted that effective trade-offs can be achieved between Vdd scaling, process tolerance and "output quality". In this paper we demonstrate how these tradeoffs can be effectively utilized in the development of novel low-power variation tolerant architectures for color interpolation. The proposed architecture supports a graceful degradation in the PSNR (Peak Signal to Noise Ratio) under aggressive voltage scaling as well as extreme process variations in. sub-70nm technologies. This is achieved by exploiting the fact that some computations are more important and contribute more to the PSNR improvement compared to the others. The computations are mapped to the hardware in such a way that only the less important computations are affected by Vdd-scaling and process variations. Simulation results show that even at a scaled voltage of 60% of nominal Vdd value, our design provides reasonable image PSNR with 69% power savings.

On the Exploitation of the Inherent Error Resilience of Wireless Systems under Unreliable Silicon

In this paper, we investigate the impact of circuit misbehavior due to parametric variations and voltage scaling on the performance of wireless communication systems. Our study reveals the inherent error resilience of such systems and argues that sufficiently reliable operation can be maintained even in the presence of unreliable circuits and manufacturing defects. We further show how selective application of more robust circuit design techniques is sufficient to deal with high defect rates at low overhead and improve energy efficiency with negligible system performance degradation.

Logic and Memory Design Based on Unequal Error Protection for Voltage-scalable, Robust and Adaptive DSP Systems

In this paper, we propose a system level design approach considering voltage over-scaling (VOS) that achieves error resiliency using unequal error protection of different computation elements, while incurring minor quality degradation. Depending on user specifications and severity of process variations/channel noise, the degree of VOS in each block of the system is adaptively tuned to ensure minimum system power while providing "just-the-right" amount of quality and robustness. This is achieved, by taking into consideration block level interactions and ensuring that under any change of operating conditions, only the "less-crucial" computations, that contribute less to block/system output quality, are affected. The proposed approach applies unequal error protection to various blocks of a system-logic and memory-and spans multiple layers of design hierarchy-algorithm, architecture and circuit. The design methodology when applied to a multimedia subsystem shows large power benefits ( up to 69% improvement in power consumption) at reasonable image quality while tolerating errors introduced due to VOS, process variations, and channel noise.

Reducing Child Protection Error in Social Work: Towards an Holistic-Rational Perspective

Social work in the United Kingdom remains embroiled in concerns about child protection error. The serious injury or death of vulnerable children continues to evince much consternation in the public and private spheres. Governmental responses to these concerns invariably draw on technocratic solutions involving more procedures, case management systems, information technology and bureaucratic regulation. Such solutions flow from an implicit use of instrumental rationality based on a ‘means-end’ logic. While bringing an important perspective to the problem of child protection error, instrumental rationality has been overused limiting discretion and other modes of rational inquiry. This paper argues that the social work profession should apply an enlarged form of rationality comprising not only the instrumental-rational mode but also the critical-rational, affective-rational and communicative-rational forms. It is suggested that this combined, conceptual arsenal of rational inquiry leads to a gestalt which has been termed the holistic-rational perspective. It is also argued that embracing a more rounded perspective such as this might offer greater opportunities for reducing child protection error.

Prevalence of refractive error in Europe: the European Eye Epidemiology (E3) Consortium

To estimate the prevalence of refractive error in adults across Europe. Refractive data (mean spherical equivalent) collected between 1990 and 2013 from fifteen population-based cohort and cross-sectional studies of the European Eye Epidemiology (E³) Consortium were combined in a random effects meta-analysis stratified by 5-year age intervals and gender. Participants were excluded if they were identified as having had cataract surgery, retinal detachment, refractive surgery or other factors that might influence refraction. Estimates of refractive error prevalence were obtained including the following classifications: myopia ≤−0.75 diopters (D), high myopia ≤−6D, hyperopia ≥1D and astigmatism ≥1D. Meta-analysis of refractive error was performed for 61,946 individuals from fifteen studies with median age ranging from 44 to 81 and minimal ethnic variation (98 % European ancestry). The age-standardised prevalences (using the 2010 European Standard Population, limited to those ≥25 and <90 years old) were: myopia 30.6 % [95 % confidence interval (CI) 30.4–30.9], high myopia 2.7 % (95 % CI 2.69–2.73), hyperopia 25.2 % (95 % CI 25.0–25.4) and astigmatism 23.9 % (95 % CI 23.7–24.1). Age-specific estimates revealed a high prevalence of myopia in younger participants [47.2 % (CI 41.8–52.5) in 25–29 years-olds]. Refractive error affects just over a half of European adults. The greatest burden of refractive error is due to myopia, with high prevalence rates in young adults. Using the 2010 European population estimates, we estimate there are 227.2 million people with myopia across Europe.

A methodology to analyse the impact of offshore wind forecasting error on electricity markets

Currently wind power is dominated by onshore wind farms in the British Isles, but both the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland have high renewable energy targets, expected to come mostly from wind power. However, as the demand for wind power grows to ensure security of energy supply, as a potentially cheaper alternative to fossil fuels and to meet greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets offshore wind power will grow rapidly as the availability of suitable onshore sites decrease. However, wind is variable and stochastic by nature and thus difficult to schedule. In order to plan for these uncertainties market operators use wind forecasting tools, reserve plant and ancillary service agreements. Onshore wind power forecasting techniques have improved dramatically and continue to advance, but offshore wind power forecasting is more difficult due to limited datasets and knowledge. So as the amount of offshore wind power increases in the British Isles robust forecasting and planning techniques are even more critical. This paper presents a methodology to investigate the impacts of better offshore wind forecasting on the operation and management of the single wholesale electricity market in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland using PLEXOS for Power Systems. © 2013 IEEE.

A new battery modelling method based on simulation error minimization

A new battery modelling method is presented based on the simulation error minimization criterion rather than the conventional prediction error criterion. A new integrated optimization method to optimize the model parameters is proposed. This new method is validated on a set of Li ion battery test data, and the results confirm the advantages of the proposed method in terms of the model generalization performance and long-term prediction accuracy.