Forecasting the effects of global warming on biodiversity

The demand for accurate forecasting of the effects of global warming on biodiversity is growing, but current methods for forecasting have limitations. in this article, we compare and discuss the different uses of four forecasting methods: (1) models that consider species individually, (2) niche-theory models that group species by habitat (more specifically, by environmental conditions under which a species can persist or does persist), (3) general circulation models and coupled ocean-atmosphere-biosphere models, and (4) specics-area curve models that consider all species or large aggregates of species. After outlining the different uses and limitations of these methods, we make eight primary suggestions for improving forecasts. We find that greater use of the fossil record and of modern genetic studies would improve forecasting methods. We note a Quaternary conundrum: While current empirical and theoretical ecological results suggest that many species could be at risk from global warming, during the recent ice ages surprisingly few species became extinct. The potential resolution of this conundrum gives insights into the requirements for more accurate and reliable forecasting. Our eight suggestions also point to constructive synergies in the solution to the different problems.

Flowering date of taxonomic families predicts phenological sensitivity to temperature: Implications for forecasting the effects of climate change on unstudied taxa.

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Numerous long-term studies in seasonal habitats have tracked interannual variation in first flowering date (FFD) in relation to climate, documenting the effect of warming on the FFD of many species. Despite these efforts, long-term phenological observations are still lacking for many species. If we could forecast responses based on taxonomic affinity, however, then we could leverage existing data to predict the climate-related phenological shifts of many taxa not yet studied. METHODS: We examined phenological time series of 1226 species occurrences (1031 unique species in 119 families) across seven sites in North America and England to determine whether family membership (or family mean FFD) predicts the sensitivity of FFD to standardized interannual changes in temperature and precipitation during seasonal periods before flowering and whether families differ significantly in the direction of their phenological shifts. KEY RESULTS: Patterns observed among species within and across sites are mirrored among family means across sites; early-flowering families advance their FFD in response to warming more than late-flowering families. By contrast, we found no consistent relationships among taxa between mean FFD and sensitivity to precipitation as measured here. CONCLUSIONS: Family membership can be used to identify taxa of high and low sensitivity to temperature within the seasonal, temperate zone plant communities analyzed here. The high sensitivity of early-flowering families (and the absence of early-flowering families not sensitive to temperature) may reflect plasticity in flowering time, which may be adaptive in environments where early-season conditions are highly variable among years.

Systematic study of the static electrical properties of the CO molecule: influence of the basis set size and correlation energy

The influence of the basis set size and the correlation energy in the static electrical properties of the CO molecule is assessed. In particular, we have studied both the nuclear relaxation and the vibrational contributions to the static molecular electrical properties, the vibrational Stark effect (VSE) and the vibrational intensity effect (VIE). From a mathematical point of view, when a static and uniform electric field is applied to a molecule, the energy of this system can be expressed in terms of a double power series with respect to the bond length and to the field strength. From the power series expansion of the potential energy, field-dependent expressions for the equilibrium geometry, for the potential energy and for the force constant are obtained. The nuclear relaxation and vibrational contributions to the molecular electrical properties are analyzed in terms of the derivatives of the electronic molecular properties. In general, the results presented show that accurate inclusion of the correlation energy and large basis sets are needed to calculate the molecular electrical properties and their derivatives with respect to either nuclear displacements or/and field strength. With respect to experimental data, the calculated power series coefficients are overestimated by the SCF, CISD, and QCISD methods. On the contrary, perturbation methods (MP2 and MP4) tend to underestimate them. In average and using the 6-311 + G(3df) basis set and for the CO molecule, the nuclear relaxation and the vibrational contributions to the molecular electrical properties amount to 11.7%, 3.3%, and 69.7% of the purely electronic μ, α, and β values, respectively

Improving electricity market price scenarios by means of forecasting factor models

In liberalized electricity markets, generation Companies must build an hourly bidthat is sent to the market operator. The price at which the energy will be paid is unknown during the bidding process and has to be forecast. In this work we apply forecasting factor models to this framework and study its suitability.

Calculation of radio electrical coverage in Medium-Wave Frequencies

The aim of this project is to accomplish an application software based on Matlab to calculate the radioelectrical coverage by surface wave of broadcast radiostations in the band of Medium Wave (WM) all around the world. Also, given the location of a transmitting and a receiving station, the software should be able to calculate the electric field that the receiver should receive at that specific site. In case of several transmitters, the program should search for the existence of Inter-Symbol Interference, and calculate the field strenght accordingly. The application should ask for the configuration parameters of the transmitter radiostation within a Graphical User Interface (GUI), and bring back the resulting coverage above a map of the area under study. For the development of this project, it has been used several conductivity databases of different countries, and a high-resolution elevation database (GLOBE). Also, to calculate the field strenght due to groundwave propagation, it has been used ITU GRWAVE program, which must be integrated into a Matlab interface to be used by the application developed.

Mortality among 24,865 workers exposed to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in three electrical capacitor manufacturing plants: a ten-year update.

The objective of this analysis was to evaluate mortality among a cohort of 24,865 capacitor-manufacturing workers exposed to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) at plants in Indiana, Massachusetts, and New York and followed for mortality through 2008. Cumulative PCB exposure was estimated using plant-specific job-exposure matrices. External comparisons to US and state-specific populations used standardized mortality ratios, adjusted for gender, race, age and calendar year. Among long-term workers employed 3 months or longer, within-cohort comparisons used standardized rate ratios and multivariable Poisson regression modeling. Through 2008, more than one million person-years at risk and 8749 deaths were accrued. Among long-term employees, all-cause and all-cancer mortality were not elevated; of the a priori outcomes assessed only melanoma mortality was elevated. Mortality was elevated for some outcomes of a priori interest among subgroups of long-term workers: all cancer, intestinal cancer and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (women); melanoma (men); melanoma and brain and nervous system cancer (Indiana plant); and melanoma and multiple myeloma (New York plant). Standardized rates of stomach and uterine cancer and multiple myeloma mortality increased with estimated cumulative PCB exposure. Poisson regression modeling showed significant associations with estimated cumulative PCB exposure for prostate and stomach cancer mortality. For other outcomes of a priori interest--rectal, liver, ovarian, breast, and thyroid cancer, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, Alzheimer disease, and Parkinson disease--neither elevated mortality nor positive associations with PCB exposure were observed. Associations between estimated cumulative PCB exposure and stomach, uterine, and prostate cancer and myeloma mortality confirmed our previous positive findings.

Relationship between electrical conductivity and water content in peat growth medium

Tiivistelmä: Turvekasvualustan sähkönjohtavuuden ja vesipitoisuuden riippuvuus mitattuna TDR-käsimittarilla

BK DNA viral load in plasma: evidence for an association with hemorrhagic cystitis in allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplant recipients.

We performed a case-control study to determine the association of BK plasma viremia with hemorrhagic cystitis (HC) in hematopoietic cell transplant (HCT) recipients. Thirty cases of HC (14 of which occurred after platelet engraftment with documented BK viruria [BK-HC]) were compared with matched controls. Weekly plasma samples were tested for BK virus DNA by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). BK viremia detected before or during the disease was independently associated with HC (adjusted odds ratio = 30, P < .001); BK viremia was even important before clinical symptoms of HC occurred (odds ratio = 11, P < .001). Cases of HC and BK-HC had a significantly higher peak of BK plasma viral load than controls. BK virus was detected by in situ hybridization in bladder biopsies of 2 cases with severe HC and long-lasting BK viremia. BK virus seems to play a role in the development of HC and quantitative detection of BK DNA in plasma appears to be a marker of BK virus disease in HCT recipients.

IL28B polymorphisms, IP-10 and viral load predict virological response to therapy in chronic hepatitis C.

Aliment Pharmacol Ther 2011; 33: 1162-1172 SUMMARY: Background  Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a major cause of chronic liver disease, cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma and the identification of the predictors of response to antiviral therapy is an important clinical issue. Aim  To determine the independent contribution of factors including IL28B polymorphisms, IFN-gamma inducible protein-10 (IP-10) levels and the homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) score in predicting response to therapy in chronic hepatitis C (CHC). Methods  Multivariate analysis of factors predicting rapid (RVR) and sustained (SVR) virological response in 280 consecutive, treatment-naive CHC patients treated with peginterferon alpha and ribavirin in a prospective multicentre study. Results  Independent predictors of RVR were HCV RNA <400 000 IU/mL (OR 11.37; 95% CI 3.03-42.6), rs12980275 AA (OR 7.09; 1.97-25.56) and IP-10 (OR 0.04; 0.003-0.56) in HCV genotype 1 patients and lower baseline γ-glutamyl-transferase levels (OR = 0.02; 0.0009-0.31) in HCV genotype 3 patients. Independent predictors of SVR were rs12980275 AA (OR 9.68; 3.44-27.18), age <40 years (OR = 4.79; 1.50-15.34) and HCV RNA <400 000 IU/mL (OR 2.74; 1.03-7.27) in HCV genotype 1 patients and rs12980275 AA (OR = 6.26; 1.98-19.74) and age <40 years (OR 5.37; 1.54-18.75) in the 88 HCV genotype 1 patients without a RVR. RVR was by itself predictive of SVR in HCV genotype 1 patients (OR 33.0; 4.06-268.32) and the only independent predictor of SVR in HCV genotype 2 (OR 9.0, 1.72-46.99) or genotype 3 patients (OR 7.8, 1.43-42.67). Conclusions  In HCV genotype 1 patients, IL28B polymorphisms, HCV RNA load and IP-10 independently predict RVR. The combination of IL28B polymorphisms, HCV RNA level and age may yield more accurate pre-treatment prediction of SVR. HOMA-IR score is not associated with viral response.

Early stage disc degeneration does not have an appreciable affect on stiffness and load transfer following vertebroplasty and kyphoplasty.

Vertebroplasty and kyphoplasty have been reported to alter the mechanical behavior of the treated and adjacent-level segments, and have been suggested to increase the risk for adjacent-level fractures. The intervertebral disc (IVD) plays an important role in the mechanical behavior of vertebral motion segments. Comparisons between normal and degenerative IVD motion segments following cement augmentation have yet to be reported. A microstructural finite element model of a degenerative IVD motion segment was constructed from micro-CT images. Microdamage within the vertebral body trabecular structure was used to simulate a slightly (I = 83.5% of intact stiffness), moderately (II = 57.8% of intact stiffness), and severely (III = 16.0% of intact stiffness) damaged motion segment. Six variable geometry single-segment cement repair strategies (models A-F) were studied at each damage level (I-III). IVD and bone stresses, and motion segment stiffness, were compared with the intact and baseline damage models (untreated), as well as, previous findings using normal IVD models with the same repair strategies. Overall, small differences were observed in motion segment stiffness and average stresses between the degenerative and normal disc repair models. We did however observe a reduction in endplate bulge and a redistribution in the microstructural tissue level stresses across both endplates and in the treated segment following early stage IVD degeneration. The cement augmentation strategy placing bone cement along the periphery of the vertebra (model E) proved to be the most advantageous in treating the degenerative IVD models by showing larger reductions in the average bone stresses (vertebral and endplate) as compared to the normal IVD models. Furthermore, only this repair strategy, and the complete cement fill strategy (model F), were able to restore the slightly damaged (I) motion segment stiffness above pre-damaged (intact) levels. Early stage IVD degeneration does not have an appreciable effect in motion segment stiffness and average stresses in the treated and adjacent-level segments following vertebroplasty and kyphoplasty. Placing bone cement in the periphery of the damaged vertebra in a degenerative IVD motion segment, minimizes load transfer, and may reduce the likelihood of adjacent-level fractures.

When genetic load does not correlate with phenotypic spectrum: lessons from the GnRH receptor (GNRHR).

CONTEXT: A broad spectrum of GnRH-deficient phenotypes has been identified in individuals with both mono- and biallelic GNRHR mutations. OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to determine the correlation between the severity of the reproductive phenotype(s) and the number and functional severity of rare sequence variants in GNRHR. SUBJECTS: Eight hundred sixty-three probands with different forms of GnRH deficiency, 46 family members and 422 controls were screened for GNRHR mutations. The 70 subjects (32 patients and 38 family members) harboring mutations were divided into four groups (G1-G4) based on the functional severity of the mutations (complete or partial loss of function) and the number of affected alleles (monoallelic or biallelic) with mutations, and these classes were mapped on their clinical phenotypes. RESULTS: The prevalence of heterozygous rare sequence variants in GNRHR was significantly higher in probands vs. controls (P < 0.01). Among the G1-G3 groups (homozygous subjects with successively decreasing severity and number of mutations), the hypogonadotropic phenotype related to their genetic load. In contrast, subjects in G4, with only monoallelic mutations, demonstrated a greater diversity of clinical phenotypes. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with GnRH deficiency and biallelic mutations in GNRHR, genetic burden defined by severity and dose is associated with clinical phenotype. In contrast, for patients with monoallelic GNRHR mutations this correlation does not hold. Taken together, these data indicate that as-yet-unidentified genetic and/or environmental factors may combine with singly mutated GNRHR alleles to produce reproductive phenotypes.

Soil compaction and eucalyptus growth in response to forwarder traffic intensity and load

During timber exploitation in forest stands harvesting machines pass repeatedly along the same track and can cause soil compaction, which leads to soil erosion and restricted tree root growth. The level of soil compaction depends on the number of passes and weight of the wood load. This paper aimed to evaluate soil compaction and eucalyptus growth as affected by the number of passes and wood load of a forwarder. The study was carried out in Santa Maria de Itabira county, Minas Gerais State - Brazil, on a seven-year-old eucalyptus stand planted on an Oxisol. The trees were felled by chainsaw and manually removed. Plots of 144 m² (four rows 12 m long in a 3 x 2 m spacing) were then marked off for the conduction of two trials. The first tested the traffic intensity of a forwarder which weighed 11,900 kg and carried 12 m³ wood (density of 480 kg m-3) and passed 2, 4, and 8 times along the same track. In the second trial, the forwarder carried loads of 4, 8, and 12 m³ of wood, and the machine was driven four times along the same track. In each plot, the passes affected four rows. Eucalyptus was planted in 30 x 30 x 30 cm holes on the compacted tracks. The soil in the area is clayey (470 clay and 440 g kg-1 sand content) and at depths of 0-5 cm and 5-10 cm, respectively, soil organic carbon was 406 and 272 g kg-1 and the moisture content during the trial 248 and 249 g kg-1. These layers were assessed for soil bulk density and water-stable aggregates. The infiltration rate was measured by a cylinder infiltrometer. After 441 days the measurements were repeated, with additional analyses of: soil organic carbon, total nitrogen, N-NH4+, N-NO3-, porosity, and penetration resistance. Tree height, stem diameter, and stem dry matter were measured. Forwarder traffic increased soil compaction, resistance to penetration and microporosity while it reduced the geometric mean diameter, total porosity, macroporosity and infiltration rate. Stem dry matter yield and tree height were not affected by soil compaction. Two passes of the forwarder were enough to cause the disturbances at the highest levels. The compaction effects were still persistent 441 days after forwarder traffic.

Learning-induced plasticity in auditory spatial representations revealed by electrical neuroimaging.

Auditory spatial representations are likely encoded at a population level within human auditory cortices. We investigated learning-induced plasticity of spatial discrimination in healthy subjects using auditory-evoked potentials (AEPs) and electrical neuroimaging analyses. Stimuli were 100 ms white-noise bursts lateralized with varying interaural time differences. In three experiments, plasticity was induced with 40 min of discrimination training. During training, accuracy significantly improved from near-chance levels to approximately 75%. Before and after training, AEPs were recorded to stimuli presented passively with a more medial sound lateralization outnumbering a more lateral one (7:1). In experiment 1, the same lateralizations were used for training and AEP sessions. Significant AEP modulations to the different lateralizations were evident only after training, indicative of a learning-induced mismatch negativity (MMN). More precisely, this MMN at 195-250 ms after stimulus onset followed from differences in the AEP topography to each stimulus position, indicative of changes in the underlying brain network. In experiment 2, mirror-symmetric locations were used for training and AEP sessions; no training-related AEP modulations or MMN were observed. In experiment 3, the discrimination of trained plus equidistant untrained separations was tested psychophysically before and 0, 6, 24, and 48 h after training. Learning-induced plasticity lasted <6 h, did not generalize to untrained lateralizations, and was not the simple result of strengthening the representation of the trained lateralizations. Thus, learning-induced plasticity of auditory spatial discrimination relies on spatial comparisons, rather than a spatial anchor or a general comparator. Furthermore, cortical auditory representations of space are dynamic and subject to rapid reorganization.

Electrical transport quantum effects in the In0.53Ga0.47As/In0.52Al0.48As heterostructure on silicon

Electrical transport in a modulation doped heterostructure of In0.53Ga0.47As/In0.52Al0.48As grown on Si by molecular beam epitaxy has been measured. Quantum Hall effect and Subnikov¿De Haas oscillations were observed indicating the two¿dimensional character of electron transport. A mobility of 20¿000 cm2/V¿s was measured at 6 K for an electron sheet concentration of 1.7×1012 cm¿2. Transmission electron microscopy observations indicated a significant surface roughness and high defect density of the InGaAs/InAlAs layers to be present due to the growth on silicon. In addition, fine¿scale composition modulation present in the In0.53Ga0.47As/In0.52Al0.48As may further limit transport properties.

Nanoscale electrical conductivity of the purple membrane monolayer

Nanoscale electron transport through the purple membrane monolayer, a two-dimensional crystal lattice of the transmembrane protein bacteriorhodopsin, is studied by conductive atomic force microscopy. We demonstrate that the purple membrane exhibits nonresonant tunneling transport, with two characteristic tunneling regimes depending on the applied voltage (direct and Fowler-Nordheim). Our results show that the purple membrane can carry significant current density at the nanometer scale, several orders of magnitude larger than previously estimated by macroscale measurements.