Explaining patterns of avian diversity and endemicity: climate and biomes of southern Africa over the last 140,000 years

Aim Test hypotheses that present biodiversity and endemic species richness are related to climatic stability and/or biome persistence.Location Africa south of 15° S. Methods Seventy eight HadCM3 general circulation model palaeoclimate experiments spanning the last 140,000 years, plus a pre-industrial experiment,were used to calculate measures of climatic variability for 0.5° grid cells. Models were fitted relating distributions of the nine biomes of South Africa,Lesotho and Swaziland to present climate. These models were used to simulate potential past biome distribution and extent for the 78 palaeoclimate experiments, and three measures of biome persistence. Climatic response surfaces were fitted for 690 bird species regularly breeding in the region and used to simulate present species richness for cells of the 0.5° grid. Species richness was evaluated for residents, mobile species (nomadic or partially/altitudinally migrant within the region), and intra-African migrants, and also separately for endemic/near-endemic (hereafter ‘endemic’) species as a whole and those associated with each biome. Our hypotheses were tested by analysing correlations between species richness and climatic variability or biome persistence. Results The magnitude of climatic variability showed clear spatial patterns. Marked changes in biome distributions and extents were projected, although limited areas of persistence were projected for some biomes. Overall species richness was not correlated with climatic variability, although richness of mobile species showed a weak negative correlation. Endemic species richness was significantly negatively correlated with climatic variability. Strongest correlations, however, were positive correlations between biome persistence and richness of endemics associated with individual biomes. Main conclusions Low climatic variability, and especially a degree of stability enabling biome persistence, is strongly correlated with species richness of birds endemic to southern Africa. This probably principally reflects reduced extinction risk for these species where the biome to which they are adapted persisted

Patterns of hominin occupation and cultural diversity across the Gebel Akhdar of Northern Libya over the last ~200 kyr

Excavations at Haua Fteah cave in Cyrenaica, Libya, have revealed a cultural sequence that may span the last glacial–interglacial-glacial cycle. The TRANS-NAP project has been re-excavating Haua Fteah and conducting geoarchaeological survey of an ecologically diverse landscape that includes the fertile Gebel Akhdar and littoral, pre-desert, and desert biomes. A major aim of this project is to characterize cultural and environmental changes across the region and correlate the surface archaeology with that from Haua Fteah. To date, 181 sites have been recorded, ranging from the Middle Stone Age (MSA) to Late Stone Age (LSA). Their geographic distribution suggests temporal variation in patterns of hominin habitat preference, with significantly more LSA than MSA sites at higher elevations. The surface archaeology also points to substantial spatiotemporal technological variation within the MSA. These patterns may be explained by both paleoenvironmental change and paleodemographic shifts in the region, resulting in a variety of hominin adaptive responses.

The career competencies of self-initiated and assigned expatriates: assessing the development of career capital over time

Building on a modern careers approach, we assess the effects of working abroad on individuals’ career capital. Given the dearth of longitudinal studies, we return to a sample of economics graduates in Finland eight years later. We measure changes in three dimensions of career capital; ‘knowing how’, ‘knowing whom’, ‘knowing why’ and find that company assigned expatriates learn more than self-initiated expatriates. All three career capital areas benefit from international experience and all are increasingly valued over time. Based on our findings we conclude that a dynamic notion of career capital acquisition and use is needed. Managerial implications include the need for a wider view of talent management for international businesses.

The role of convective parameterization in the simulation of a cyclone over the South Atlantic

Numerical simulations are carried out to examine the role of the Kuo and Kain-Fritsch (KF) cumulus parameterization schemes and dry dynamics on a cyclone development, in a weak baroclinic atmosphere, over subtropical South Atlantic Ocean. The initial phase of the cyclone development is investigated with a coarse horizontal mesh (75 km) and when the cyclone reaches the mature stage two different horizontal resolutions are used (75 and 25 km). The best performance simulation for the cyclone initial phase occurs when the Kuo convective scheme is applied, and this may be attributed to a greater diabatic warming in the troposphere. On the other hand, the dry simulation is not capable of simulating the correct location and intensity of the cyclone in its initial phase. During the mature phase, a cyclone over deepening occurs in the Kuo scheme experiment associated with larger latent heat release in a deep vertical column. The presence of downdraft currents in the KF scheme, which acts to cool and dry the lower levels, is essential to stabilize the atmosphere and to reproduce the nearest observation cyclone deepening rate. The largest cyclone deepening is found in the Kuo scheme high resolution experiment. This suggests that the KF convective scheme is less sensitive to the horizontal grid resolution. It was also revealed that the diabatic processes are crucial to simulate the observed features of this marine cyclone over subtropical region.

Electrification of precipitating systems over the Amazon: Physical processes of thunderstorm development

This study investigated the physical processes involved in the development of thunderstorms over southwestern Amazon by hypothesizing causalities for the observed cloud-to-ground lightning variability and the local environmental characteristics. Southwestern Amazon experiences every year a large variety of environmental factors, such as the gradual increase in atmospheric moisture, extremely high pollution due to biomass burning, and intense deforestation, which directly affects cloud development by differential surface energy partition. In the end of the dry period it was observed higher percentages of positive cloud-to-ground (+CG) lightning due to a relative increase in +CG dominated thunderstorms (positive thunderstorms). Positive (negative) thunderstorms initiated preferentially over deforested (forest) areas with higher (lower) cloud base heights, shallower (deeper) warm cloud depths, and higher (lower) convective potential available energy. These features characterized the positive (negative) thunderstorms as deeper (relatively shallower) clouds, stronger (relatively weaker) updrafts with enhanced (decreased) mixed and cold vertically integrated liquid. No significant difference between thunderstorms (negative and positive) and nonthunderstorms were observed in terms of atmospheric pollution, once the atmosphere was overwhelmed by pollution leading to an updraft-limited regime. However, in the wet season both negative and positive thunderstorms occurred during periods of relatively higher aerosol concentration and differentiated size distributions, suggesting an aerosol-limited regime where cloud electrification could be dependent on the aerosol concentration to suppress the warm and enhance the ice phase. The suggested causalities are consistent with the invoked hypotheses, but they are not observed facts; they are just hypotheses based on plausible physical mechanisms.

The role of predator overlap in the robustness and extinction of a four species predator-prey network

Predators and preys often form species networks with asymmetric patterns of interaction. We study the dynamics of a four species network consisting of two weakly connected predator-prey pairs. We focus our analysis on the effects of the cross interaction between the predator of the first pair and the prey of the second pair. This is an example where the predator overlap, which is the proportion of predators that a given prey shares with other preys, is not uniform across the network due to asymmetries in patterns of interaction. We explore the behavior of the system under different interaction strengths and study the dynamics of survival and extinction. In particular, we consider situations in which the four species have initial populations lower than their long-term equilibrium, simulating catastrophic situations in which their abundances are reduced due to human action or environmental change. We show that, under these reduced initial conditions, and depending on the strength of the cross interaction, the populations tend to oscillate before re-equilibrating, disturbing the community equilibrium and sometimes reaching values that are only a small fraction of the equilibrium population, potentially leading to their extinction. We predict that, contrary to one`s intuition, the most likely scenario is the extinction of the less predated preys. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The analytic torsion of a cone over an odd dimensional manifold

We study the analytic torsion of a cone over an orientable odd dimensional compact connected Riemannian manifold W. We prove that the logarithm of the analytic torsion of the cone decomposes as the sum of the logarithm of the root of the analytic torsion of the boundary of the cone, plus a topological term, plus a further term that is a rational linear combination of local Riemannian invariants of the boundary. We show that this last term coincides with the anomaly boundary term appearing in the Cheeger Muller theorem [3, 2] for a manifold with boundary, according to Bruning and Ma (2006) [5]. We also prove Poincare duality for the analytic torsion of a cone. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The analytic torsion of a cone over a sphere

We compute the analytic torsion of a cone over a sphere of dimensions 1, 2, and 3, and we conjecture a general formula for the cone over an odd dimensional sphere. (C) 2009 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Cyclic Maximal Ideals of Rings of Differential Operators over Power Series Rings

In [3], Bratti and Takagi conjectured that a first order differential operator S=11 +...+ nn+ with 1,..., n, {x1,..., xn} does not generate a cyclic maximal left (or right) ideal of the ring of differential operators. This is contrary to the case of the Weyl algebra, i.e., the ring of differential operators over the polynomial ring [x1,..., xn]. In this case, we know that such cyclic maximal ideals do exist. In this article, we prove several special cases of the conjecture of Bratti and Takagi.

Atmosphere and hydrological controls of the evapotranspiration over a floodplain forest in the Bananal Island region, Amazonia

This article discusses seasonal and interannual variations of the evapotranspiration (ET) rates in Bananal Island floodplain, Brazil. Measurements included ET and sensible heat flux using the eddy covariance method, atmospheric forcings (net radiation, Rn, vapor pressure deficit, VPD, wind speed and air temperature), soil moisture profiles, groundwater level and flood height, taken from November 2003 to December 2006. For the hydrological years (October-September) of 2003/2004, 2004/2005 and 2005/2006, the accumulated precipitation was 1692, 1471, 1914 mm and the accumulated ET was 1361, 1318 and 1317 mm, respectively. Seasonal analyses indicated that ET decreased in the dry season (average 3.7 mm day(-1)), despite the simultaneous increase in Rn, air temperature and VPD. The increase of ET in the wet season and particularly in the flood period (average 4.1 mm day(-1)) showed that the free water surface evaporation strongly influenced the energy exchange. Soil moisture, which was substantially depleted during the dry season, and adaptative vegetation mechanisms such as leaf senescence contributed to limit the dry season ET. Strong drainage within permeable sandy soils helped to explain the soil moisture depletion. These results suggest that the Bananal flooding area shows a different pattern in relation to the upland Amazon forests, being more similar to the savanna strictu senso areas in central Brazil. For example, seasonal ET variation was not in phase with Rn; the wet season ET was higher than the dry season ET; and the system stored only a tiny memory of the flooding period, being sensitive to extended drought periods.

The stochastic nature of predator-prey cycles

We study by numerical simulations the time correlation function of a stochastic lattice model describing the dynamics of coexistence of two interacting biological species that present time cycles in the number of species individuals. Its asymptotic behavior is shown to decrease in time as a sinusoidal exponential function from which we extract the dominant eigenvalue of the evolution operator related to the stochastic dynamics showing that it is complex with the imaginary part being the frequency of the population cycles. The transition from the oscillatory to the nonoscillatory behavior occurs when the asymptotic behavior of the time correlation function becomes a pure exponential, that is, when the real part of the complex eigenvalue equals a real eigenvalue. We also show that the amplitude of the undamped oscillations increases with the square root of the area of the habitat as ordinary random fluctuations. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On the Stabilization of Gold Nanoparticles over Silica-Based Magnetic Supports Modified with Organosilanes

The immobilization of gold nanoparticles (Au NPs) on silica is made possible by the functionalization of the silica surfaces with organosilanes. Au NPs could only be stabilized and firmly attached to silica-support surfaces that were previously modified with amino groups. Au NPs could not be stabilized on bare silica surfaces and most of the NPs were then found in the solution. The metal-support interactions before and after the Au NP formation, observed by X-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy (XAFS), indicate a stronger interaction of gold-(III) ions with amino-modified silica surfaces than with the silanol groups in bare silica. An amino-modified, silica-based, magnetic support was used to prepare an active Au NP catalyst for the chemoselective oxidation of alcohols, a reaction of great interest for the fine chemical industry.

Bayesian Estimation of the Logistic Positive Exponent IRT Model

A Bayesian inference approach using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is developed for the logistic positive exponent (LPE) model proposed by Samejima and for a new skewed Logistic Item Response Theory (IRT) model, named Reflection LPE model. Both models lead to asymmetric item characteristic curves (ICC) and can be appropriate because a symmetric ICC treats both correct and incorrect answers symmetrically, which results in a logical contradiction in ordering examinees on the ability scale. A data set corresponding to a mathematical test applied in Peruvian public schools is analyzed, where comparisons with other parametric IRT models also are conducted. Several model comparison criteria are discussed and implemented. The main conclusion is that the LPE and RLPE IRT models are easy to implement and seem to provide the best fit to the data set considered.

Bayesian estimation of regression parameters in elliptical measurement error models

The main object of this paper is to discuss the Bayes estimation of the regression coefficients in the elliptically distributed simple regression model with measurement errors. The posterior distribution for the line parameters is obtained in a closed form, considering the following: the ratio of the error variances is known, informative prior distribution for the error variance, and non-informative prior distributions for the regression coefficients and for the incidental parameters. We proved that the posterior distribution of the regression coefficients has at most two real modes. Situations with a single mode are more likely than those with two modes, especially in large samples. The precision of the modal estimators is studied by deriving the Hessian matrix, which although complicated can be computed numerically. The posterior mean is estimated by using the Gibbs sampling algorithm and approximations by normal distributions. The results are applied to a real data set and connections with results in the literature are reported. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A semi-Markov multistate model for estimation of the mean quality-adjusted survival for non-progressive processes

We discuss the estimation of the expected value of the quality-adjusted survival, based on multistate models. We generalize an earlier work, considering the sojourn times in health states are not identically distributed, for a given vector of covariates. Approaches based on semiparametric and parametric (exponential and Weibull distributions) methodologies are considered. A simulation study is conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed estimator and the jackknife resampling method is used to estimate the variance of such estimator. An application to a real data set is also included.