The Causal Links between FDI and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: A Case Study of the Republic of Rwanda

The study examines the short-run and long-run causality running from real economic growth to real foreign direct investment inflows (RFDI). Other variables such as education (involving combination of primary, secondary and tertiary enrolment as a proxy to education), real development finance, unskilled labour, to real RFDI inflows are included in the study. The time series data covering the period of 1983 -2013 are examined. First, I applied Augmented Dicky-Fuller (ADF) technique to test for unit root in variables. Findings shows all variables integrated of order one [I(1)]. Thereafter, Johansen Co-integration Test (JCT) was conducted to establish the relationship among variables. Both trace and maximum Eigen value at 5% level of significance indicate 3 co-integrated equations. Vector error correction method (VECM) was applied to capture short and long-run causality running from education, economic growth, real development finance, and unskilled labour to real foreign direct investment inflows in the Republic of Rwanda. Findings shows no short-run causality running from education, real development finance, real GDP and unskilled labour to real FDI inflows, however there were existence of long-run causality. This can be interpreted that, in the short-run; education, development finance, finance and economic growth does not influence inflows of foreign direct investment in Rwanda; but it does in long-run. From the policy perspective, the Republic of Rwanda should focus more on long term goal of investing in education to improve human capital, undertake policy reforms that promotes economic growth, in addition to promoting good governance to attract development finance – especially from Nordics countries (particularly Norway and Denmark).

Reconceptualising International Intervention: Statebuilding, ‘Organic Processes’ and the Limits of Causal Knowledge

This article examines the transformation in the conceptual understanding of international intervention over the last two decades. It suggests that this conceptual shift can be usefully interrogated through its imbrication within broader epistemological shifts highlighting the limits of causal knowledge claims: heuristically framed in this article in terms of the shift from policy interventions within the problematic of causation to those concerned with the management of effects. In this shift, the means and mechanisms of international intervention have been transformed, no longer focused on the universal application of Western causal knowledge through policy interventions but rather on the effects of specific and unique local and organic processes at work in societies themselves. The focus on effects takes the conceptualisation of intervention out of the traditional terminological lexicon of International Relations theory and instead recasts problems in increasingly organicised ways, suggesting that artificial or hubristic attempts at socio-political intervention should be excluded or minimised.

Correlation between anxiety and academic self-concept in interpreter trainees

This paper focuses on two basic issues: the anxiety-generating nature of the interpreting task and the relevance of interpreter trainees’ academic self-concept. The first has already been acknowledged, although not extensively researched, in several papers, and the second has only been mentioned briefly in interpreting literature. This study seeks to examine the relationship between the anxiety and academic self-concept constructs among interpreter trainees. An adapted version of the Foreign Language Anxiety Scale (Horwitz et al., 1986), the Academic Autoconcept Scale (Schmidt, Messoulam & Molina, 2008) and a background information questionnaire were used to collect data. Students’ t-Test analysis results indicated that female students reported experiencing significantly higher levels of anxiety than male students. No significant gender difference in self-concept levels was found. Correlation analysis results suggested, on the one hand, that younger would-be interpreters suffered from higher anxiety levels and students with higher marks tended to have lower anxiety levels; and, on the other hand, that younger students had lower self-concept levels and higher-ability students held higher self-concept levels. In addition, the results revealed that students with higher anxiety levels tended to have lower self-concept levels. Based on these findings, recommendations for interpreting pedagogy are discussed.

Effective network security monitoring: from attribution to target-centric monitoring

Network security monitoring remains a challenge. As global networks scale up, in terms of traffic, volume and speed, effective attribution of cyber attacks is increasingly difficult. The problem is compounded by a combination of other factors, including the architecture of the Internet, multi-stage attacks and increasing volumes of nonproductive traffic. This paper proposes to shift the focus of security monitoring from the source to the target. Simply put, resources devoted to detection and attribution should be redeployed to efficiently monitor for targeting and prevention of attacks. The effort of detection should aim to determine whether a node is under attack, and if so, effectively prevent the attack. This paper contributes by systematically reviewing the structural, operational and legal reasons underlying this argument, and presents empirical evidence to support a shift away from attribution to favour of a target-centric monitoring approach. A carefully deployed set of experiments are presented and a detailed analysis of the results is achieved.

Automated Equation Formulation for Causal Loop Diagrams

The annotation of Business Dynamics models with parameters and equations, to simulate the system under study and further evaluate its simulation output, typically involves a lot of manual work. In this paper we present an approach for automated equation formulation of a given Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) and a set of associated time series with the help of neural network evolution (NEvo). NEvo enables the automated retrieval of surrogate equations for each quantity in the given CLD, hence it produces a fully annotated CLD that can be used for later simulations to predict future KPI development. In the end of the paper, we provide a detailed evaluation of NEvo on a business use-case to demonstrate its single step prediction capabilities.

Attribution et variation du genre d’emprunts à l’anglais, à l’italien, au japonais et à l’arabe dans le lexique du français

Le genre des emprunts lexicaux référant à des entités non-sexuées en français est parfois considéré comme arbitraire, alors qu’il est parfois vu comme motivé par sa forme physique et/ou ses significations. Puisque les avis diffèrent à ce sujet, nous nous sommes intéressé à analyser de nombreux critères pouvant contribuer à l’attribution du genre d’un emprunt. Nous avons constitué quatre corpus, chacun composé de textes issus d’une communauté linguistique emprunteuse (Québec et Europe) et d’un niveau de formalité (formel ou informel). Nous avons observé que le genre des emprunts varie considérablement dans de nombreux cas. Nous constatons que les emprunts des langues à genre (italien, arabe) conservent généralement leur genre originel. Les critères sémantiques et de forme physique peuvent autant justifier le genre d’un emprunt l’un que l’autre. Le critère sémantique le plus opératoire intègre chaque emprunt dans un paradigme conceptuel regroupant plusieurs unités lexicales sous une même conceptualisation et, généralement, un genre commun au paradigme.

Finite Population Inference for Causal Parameters

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

CAUSAL INFERENCE WITH A CONTINUOUS TREATMENT AND OUTCOME: ALTERNATIVE ESTIMATORS FOR PARAMETRIC DOSE-RESPONSE FUNCTIONS WITH APPLICATIONS.

Causal inference with a continuous treatment is a relatively under-explored problem. In this dissertation, we adopt the potential outcomes framework. Potential outcomes are responses that would be seen for a unit under all possible treatments. In an observational study where the treatment is continuous, the potential outcomes are an uncountably infinite set indexed by treatment dose. We parameterize this unobservable set as a linear combination of a finite number of basis functions whose coefficients vary across units. This leads to new techniques for estimating the population average dose-response function (ADRF). Some techniques require a model for the treatment assignment given covariates, some require a model for predicting the potential outcomes from covariates, and some require both. We develop these techniques using a framework of estimating functions, compare them to existing methods for continuous treatments, and simulate their performance in a population where the ADRF is linear and the models for the treatment and/or outcomes may be misspecified. We also extend the comparisons to a data set of lottery winners in Massachusetts. Next, we describe the methods and functions in the R package causaldrf using data from the National Medical Expenditure Survey (NMES) and Infant Health and Development Program (IHDP) as examples. Additionally, we analyze the National Growth and Health Study (NGHS) data set and deal with the issue of missing data. Lastly, we discuss future research goals and possible extensions.

Caracterización del agente causal de la producción radicular del aguacate y Trichoderma sp., como potencial agente de control biológico en Nicaragua.

En el cultivo de aguacate (Persea americana Mill.) se presentan problemas fitosanitarios importantes dentro de los cuales sobresalen por su relevancia las enfermedades de la raíz. Un fitopatógeno limitante de este cultivo es el oomicete Phytophthora cinnamomi Rands, que puede causar pérdidas hasta del 90%. Por tal razón el principal objetivo del estudio fue generar información acerca de la etiología del agente causal de la pudrición radicular del aguacate utilizando marcadores morfológicos y moleculares, además de proponer alternativas de manejo de carácter biológico que estén enmarcadas dentro de un programa de manejo integrado de la enfermedad. Se realizaron colectas de muestras de suelo en cuatro localidades del departamento de Masaya. La identificación morfológica del patógeno se realizó mediante claves taxonómicas y se confirmó a través de la técnica PCR-RFLP. Se identificó a P. cinnamomi como el principal agente causal de la pudrición radicular del aguacate. Los aislados de P. cinnamomi fueron enfrentados con Trichoderma sp por el método de cultivo dual en cajas Petri con medio PDA. Se determinó el porcentaje de inhibición de crecimiento radial (PICR) a las 72 horas, así como el grado de antagonismo de cada una de las cepas de Trichoderma sp utilizadas en el estudio. Las cepas de Trichoderma al enfrentarlas a aislados del patógeno P. cinnamomi se ubicaron en las Clases 1 y 2 de la escala de evaluación, por lo tanto se consideraron altamente antagonistas. Existe la posibilidad de manejo biológico de las poblaciones de P. cinnamomi con microorganismos antagonistas del género Trichoderma no solamente en agroecosistemas de aguacate, sino también en otros sistemas agrícolas y forestales donde el patógeno esté presente.

Causal structure of the entanglement renormalization ansatz

We show that the multiscale entanglement renormalization ansatz (MERA) can be reformulated in terms of a causality constraint on discrete quantum dynamics. This causal structure is that of de Sitter space with a flat space-like boundary, where the volume of a spacetime region corresponds to the number of variational parameters it contains. This result clarifies the nature of the ansatz, and suggests a generalization to quantum field theory. It also constitutes an independent justification of the connection between MERA and hyperbolic geometry which was proposed as a concrete implementation of the AdS-CFT correspondence.

Fatalism, Attributions of Failure and Academic Performance in Mapuche and Non-Mapuche Chilean Students

This study investigated the role of fatalism as a cultural value orientation and causal attributions for past failure in the academic performance of high school students in the Araucania Region of Chile. Three thousand three hundred and fourty eight Mapuche and Non-Mapuche students participated in the study. Consistent with the Culture and Behavior model that guided the research, the test of causal models based on the analysis of structural equations show that academic performance is in part a function of variations in the level of fatalism, directly as well as indirectly through its influence in the attribution processes and failure-related emotions. In general, the model representing the proposed structure of relations among fatalism, attributions, and emotions as determinants of academic performance fit the data for both Mapuche and non-Mapuche students. However, results show that some of the relations in the model are different for students from these two ethnic groups. Finally, according to the results from the analysis of causal models, family SES appear to be the most important determinant of fatalism.

Using Causal Models for the Calculation of Direct and Indirect Effects: An Example From Occupational Health

International audience

Conducta prosocial y autoatribuciones académicas en Educación Secundaria Obligatoria

Este estudio presenta los resultados sobre la relación que existe entre las autoatribuciones académicas en lenguaje y matemáticas en una muestra de 2.022 estudiantes de Educación Secundaria de 12 a 16 años. Los adolescentes fueron seleccionados aleatoriamente de 20 escuelas urbanas y rurales en las provincias de Alicante y Murcia, España. La conducta prosocial fue codificada con el Teenage Inventory of Social Skills y las autoatribuciones académicas fueron medidas mediante la Escala de Atribución Causal de Sydney (Sydney Attribution Scale, SAS; Marsh, 1984). El 17.35% de estudiantes de ESO fueron identificados como prosociales. Los chicos de 2º de ESO y las chicas de 4º de ESO presentaron la menor y mayor prevalencia puntual de conducta prosocial, respectivamente. Respecto a la asignatura de lenguaje, los estudiantes prosociales atribuyen significativamente el éxito a la capacidad, el esfuerzo y, en menor medida, a causas externas. En cuanto a la asignatura de matemáticas, los estudiantes prosociales atribuyeron el éxito significativamente más al esfuerzo y significativamente menos a causas externas, mientras que atribuyeron el fracaso significativamente más a la falta de esfuerzo. Además, los datos han permitido crear un modelo de regresión logística que permite hacer estimaciones correctas respecto a la probabilidad de éxito académico en matemáticas, en lenguaje y en todas las asignaturas aprobadas en estudiantes prosociales de E.S.O. a partir de las puntuaciones en atribuciones académicas.