A critical evaluation of secondary cancer risk models applied to Monte Carlo dose distributions of 2-dimensional, 3-dimensional conformal and hybrid intensity-modulated radiation therapy for breast cancer

The comparison of radiotherapy techniques regarding secondary cancer risk has yielded contradictory results possibly stemming from the many different approaches used to estimate risk. The purpose of this study was to make a comprehensive evaluation of different available risk models applied to detailed whole-body dose distributions computed by Monte Carlo for various breast radiotherapy techniques including conventional open tangents, 3D conformal wedged tangents and hybrid intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT). First, organ-specific linear risk models developed by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) and the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) VII committee were applied to mean doses for remote organs only and all solid organs. Then, different general non-linear risk models were applied to the whole body dose distribution. Finally, organ-specific non-linear risk models for the lung and breast were used to assess the secondary cancer risk for these two specific organs. A total of 32 different calculated absolute risks resulted in a broad range of values (between 0.1% and 48.5%) underlying the large uncertainties in absolute risk calculation. The ratio of risk between two techniques has often been proposed as a more robust assessment of risk than the absolute risk. We found that the ratio of risk between two techniques could also vary substantially considering the different approaches to risk estimation. Sometimes the ratio of risk between two techniques would range between values smaller and larger than one, which then translates into inconsistent results on the potential higher risk of one technique compared to another. We found however that the hybrid IMRT technique resulted in a systematic reduction of risk compared to the other techniques investigated even though the magnitude of this reduction varied substantially with the different approaches investigated. Based on the epidemiological data available, a reasonable approach to risk estimation would be to use organ-specific non-linear risk models applied to the dose distributions of organs within or near the treatment fields (lungs and contralateral breast in the case of breast radiotherapy) as the majority of radiation-induced secondary cancers are found in the beam-bordering regions.

Functional correction in mouse models of muscular dystrophy using exon-skipping tricyclo-DNA oligomers

Antisense oligonucleotides (AONs) hold promise for therapeutic correction of many genetic diseases via exon skipping, and the first AON-based drugs have entered clinical trials for neuromuscular disorders1, 2. However, despite advances in AON chemistry and design, systemic use of AONs is limited because of poor tissue uptake, and recent clinical reports confirm that sufficient therapeutic efficacy has not yet been achieved. Here we present a new class of AONs made of tricyclo-DNA (tcDNA), which displays unique pharmacological properties and unprecedented uptake by many tissues after systemic administration. We demonstrate these properties in two mouse models of Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD), a neurogenetic disease typically caused by frame-shifting deletions or nonsense mutations in the gene encoding dystrophin3, 4 and characterized by progressive muscle weakness, cardiomyopathy, respiratory failure5 and neurocognitive impairment6. Although current naked AONs do not enter the heart or cross the blood-brain barrier to any substantial extent, we show that systemic delivery of tcDNA-AONs promotes a high degree of rescue of dystrophin expression in skeletal muscles, the heart and, to a lesser extent, the brain. Our results demonstrate for the first time a physiological improvement of cardio-respiratory functions and a correction of behavioral features in DMD model mice. This makes tcDNA-AON chemistry particularly attractive as a potential future therapy for patients with DMD and other neuromuscular disorders or with other diseases that are eligible for exon-skipping approaches requiring whole-body treatment.

Childhood Trauma and Complex Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Symptoms in Older Adults: A Study of Direct Effects and Social-Interpersonal Factors as Potential Mediators

Childhood traumatic events may lead to long-lasting psychological effects and contribute to the development of complex posttraumatic sequelae. These might be captured by the diagnostic concept of complex posttraumatic stress disorder (CPTSD) as an alternative to classic posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). CPTSD comprises a further set of symptoms in addition to those of PTSD, namely, changes in affect, self, and interpersonal relationships. Previous empirical research on CPTSD has focused on middle-aged adults but not on older adults. Moreover, predictor models of CPTSD are still rare. The current study investigated the association between traumatic events in childhood and complex posttraumatic stress symptoms in older adults. The mediation of this association by 2 social-interpersonal factors (social acknowledgment as a survivor and dysfunctional disclosure) was investigated. These 2 factors focus on the perception of acknowledgment by others and either the inability to disclose traumatic experiences or the ability to do so only with negative emotional reactions. A total of 116 older individuals (age range = 59–98 years) who had experienced childhood traumatic events completed standardized self-report questionnaires indexing childhood trauma, complex trauma sequelae, social acknowledgment, and dysfunctional disclosure of trauma. The results showed that traumatic events during childhood were associated with later posttraumatic stress symptoms but with classic rather than complex symptoms. Social acknowledgment and dysfunctional disclosure partially mediated this relationship. These findings suggest that childhood traumatic stress impacts individuals across the life span and may be associated with particular adverse psychopathological consequences.

A potential application of sludge-based catalysts for the anaerobic bio-decolorization of tartrazine dye.

Two highly efficient (K2CO3/sludge carbon and ZnCl2/sludge carbon) solids were prepared by chemical addition following carbonization at 800 °C and were tested for anaerobic reduction of tartrazine dye in a continuous upflow packed-bed biological reactor, and their performance was compared to that of commercial activated carbon (CAC). The chemical and structural information of the solids was subjected to various characterizations in order to understand the mechanism for anaerobic decolorization, and efficiency for SBCZN800 and SBCPC800 materials was 87% and 74%, respectively, at a short space time (τ) of 2.0 min. A first-order kinetic model fitted the experimental points and kinetic constants of 0.40, 0.92 and 1.46 min(-1) were obtained for SBCZN800, SBCPC800 and CAC, respectively. The experimental results revealed that performance of solids in the anaerobic reduction of tartrazine dye can depend on several factors including chemical agents, carbonization, microbial population, chemical groups and surface chemistry. The Langmuir and Freundlich models are successfully described in the batch adsorption data. Based on these observations, a cost-effective sludge-based catalyst can be produced from harmful sewage sludge for the treatment of industrial effluents.

Achieving a more realistic assessment of rockfall hazards by coupling three-dimensional process models and field-based tree-ring data

Sound knowledge of the spatial and temporal patterns of rockfalls is fundamental for the management of this very common hazard in mountain environments. Process-based, three-dimensional simulation models are nowadays capable of reproducing the spatial distribution of rockfall occurrences with reasonable accuracy through the simulation of numerous individual trajectories on highly-resolved digital terrain models. At the same time, however, simulation models typically fail to quantify the ‘real’ frequency of rockfalls (in terms of return intervals). The analysis of impact scars on trees, in contrast, yields real rockfall frequencies, but trees may not be present at the location of interest and rare trajectories may not necessarily be captured due to the limited age of forest stands. In this article, we demonstrate that the coupling of modeling with tree-ring techniques may overcome the limitations inherent to both approaches. Based on the analysis of 64 cells (40 m × 40 m) of a rockfall slope located above a 1631-m long road section in the Swiss Alps, we illustrate results from 488 rockfalls detected in 1260 trees. We illustrate that tree impact data cannot only be used (i) to reconstruct the real frequency of rockfalls for individual cells, but that they also serve (ii) the calibration of the rockfall model Rockyfor3D, as well as (iii) the transformation of simulated trajectories into real frequencies. Calibrated simulation results are in good agreement with real rockfall frequencies and exhibit significant differences in rockfall activity between the cells (zones) along the road section. Real frequencies, expressed as rock passages per meter road section, also enable quantification and direct comparison of the hazard potential between the zones. The contribution provides an approach for hazard zoning procedures that complements traditional methods with a quantification of rockfall frequencies in terms of return intervals through a systematic inclusion of impact records in trees.

Simultaneous analysis of nuclear and mitochondrial DNA, mRNA and miRNA from backspatter from inside parts of firearms generated by shots at "triple contrast" doped ballistic models

When a firearm projectile hits a biological target a spray of biological material (e.g., blood and tissue fragments) can be propelled from the entrance wound back towards the firearm. This phenomenon has become known as "backspatter" and if caused by contact shots or shots from short distances traces of backspatter may reach, consolidate on, and be recovered from, the inside surfaces of the firearm. Thus, a comprehensive investigation of firearm-related crimes must not only comprise of wound ballistic assessment but also backspatter analysis, and may even take into account potential correlations between these emergences. The aim of the present study was to evaluate and expand the applicability of the "triple contrast" method by probing its compatibility with forensic analysis of nuclear and mitochondrial DNA and the simultaneous investigation of co-extracted mRNA and miRNA from backspatter collected from internal components of different types of firearms after experimental shootings. We demonstrate that "triple contrast" stained biological samples collected from the inside surfaces of firearms are amenable to forensic co-analysis of DNA and RNA and permit sequence analysis of the entire mtDNA displacement-loop, even for "low template" DNA amounts that preclude standard short tandem repeat DNA analysis. Our findings underscore the "triple contrast" method's usefulness as a research tool in experimental forensic ballistics.

Pre-clinical in vivo models for the screening of bone biomaterials for oral/craniofacial indications: focus on small-animal models.

Preclinical in vivo experimental studies are performed for evaluating proof-of-principle concepts, safety and possible unwanted reactions of candidate bone biomaterials before proceeding to clinical testing. Specifically, models involving small animals have been developed for screening bone biomaterials for their potential to enhance bone formation. No single model can completely recreate the anatomic, physiologic, biomechanic and functional environment of the human mouth and jaws. Relevant aspects regarding physiology, anatomy, dimensions and handling are discussed in this paper to elucidate the advantages and disadvantages of small-animal models. Model selection should be based not on the 'expertise' or capacities of the team, but rather on a scientifically solid rationale, and the animal model selected should reflect the question for which an answer is sought. The rationale for using heterotopic or orthotopic testing sites, and intraosseous, periosseous or extraskeletal defect models, is discussed. The paper also discusses the relevance of critical size defect modeling, with focus on calvarial defects in rodents. In addition, the rabbit sinus model and the capsule model in the rat mandible are presented and discussed in detail. All animal experiments should be designed with care and include sample-size and study-power calculations, thus allowing generation of meaningful data. Moreover, animal experiments are subject to ethical approval by the relevant authority. All procedures and the postoperative handling and care, including postoperative analgesics, should follow best practice.

Comparison of co-located independent ground-based middle atmospheric wind and temperature measurements with numerical weather prediction models

High-resolution, ground-based and independent observations including co-located wind radiometer, lidar stations, and infrasound instruments are used to evaluate the accuracy of general circulation models and data-constrained assimilation systems in the middle atmosphere at northern hemisphere midlatitudes. Systematic comparisons between observations, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analyses including the recent Integrated Forecast System cycles 38r1 and 38r2, the NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalyses, and the free-running climate Max Planck Institute–Earth System Model–Low Resolution (MPI-ESM-LR) are carried out in both temporal and spectral dom ains. We find that ECMWF and MERRA are broadly consistent with lidar and wind radiometer measurements up to ~40 km. For both temperature and horizontal wind components, deviations increase with altitude as the assimilated observations become sparser. Between 40 and 60 km altitude, the standard deviation of the mean difference exceeds 5 K for the temperature and 20 m/s for the zonal wind. The largest deviations are observed in winter when the variability from large-scale planetary waves dominates. Between lidar data and MPI-ESM-LR, there is an overall agreement in spectral amplitude down to 15–20 days. At shorter time scales, the variability is lacking in the model by ~10 dB. Infrasound observations indicate a general good agreement with ECWMF wind and temperature products. As such, this study demonstrates the potential of the infrastructure of the Atmospheric Dynamics Research Infrastructure in Europe project that integrates various measurements and provides a quantitative understanding of stratosphere-troposphere dynamical coupling for numerical weather prediction applications.

EARLINET: potential operationality of a research network

In the framework of ACTRIS (Aerosols, Clouds, and Trace Gases Research Infrastructure Network) summer 2012 measurement campaign (8 June–17 July 2012), EARLINET organized and performed a controlled exercise of feasibility to demonstrate its potential to perform operational, coordinated measurements and deliver products in near-real time. Eleven lidar stations participated in the exercise which started on 9 July 2012 at 06:00 UT and ended 72 h later on 12 July at 06:00 UT. For the first time, the single calculus chain (SCC) – the common calculus chain developed within EARLINET for the automatic evaluation of lidar data from raw signals up to the final products – was used. All stations sent in real-time measurements of a 1 h duration to the SCC server in a predefined netcdf file format. The pre-processing of the data was performed in real time by the SCC, while the optical processing was performed in near-real time after the exercise ended. 98 and 79 % of the files sent to SCC were successfully pre-processed and processed, respectively. Those percentages are quite large taking into account that no cloud screening was performed on the lidar data. The paper draws present and future SCC users' attention to the most critical parameters of the SCC product configuration and their possible optimal value but also to the limitations inherent to the raw data. The continuous use of SCC direct and derived products in heterogeneous conditions is used to demonstrate two potential applications of EARLINET infrastructure: the monitoring of a Saharan dust intrusion event and the evaluation of two dust transport models. The efforts made to define the measurements protocol and to configure properly the SCC pave the way for applying this protocol for specific applications such as the monitoring of special events, atmospheric modeling, climate research and calibration/validation activities of spaceborne observations.

Bacillus anthracis Diversity and Geographic Potential across Nigeria, Cameroon and Chad: Further Support of a Novel West African Lineage.

Zoonoses, diseases affecting both humans and animals, can exert tremendous pressures on human and veterinary health systems, particularly in resource limited countries. Anthrax is one such zoonosis of concern and is a disease requiring greater public health attention in Nigeria. Here we describe the genetic diversity of Bacillus anthracis in Nigeria and compare it to Chad, Cameroon and a broader global dataset based on the multiple locus variable number tandem repeat (MLVA-25) genetic typing system. Nigerian B. anthracis isolates had identical MLVA genotypes and could only be resolved by measuring highly mutable single nucleotide repeats (SNRs). The Nigerian MLVA genotype was identical or highly genetically similar to those in the neighboring countries, confirming the strains belong to this unique West African lineage. Interestingly, sequence data from a Nigerian isolate shares the anthrose deficient genotypes previously described for strains in this region, which may be associated with vaccine evasion. Strains in this study were isolated over six decades, indicating a high level of temporal strain stability regionally. Ecological niche models were used to predict the geographic distribution of the pathogen for all three countries. We describe a west-east habitat corridor through northern Nigeria extending into Chad and Cameroon. Ecological niche models and genetic results show B. anthracis to be ecologically established in Nigeria. These findings expand our understanding of the global B. anthracis population structure and can guide regional anthrax surveillance and control planning.

Kinase signalling pathways in endometriosis: potential targets for non-hormonal therapeutics.

BACKGROUND Endometriosis, the growth of endometrial tissue outside the uterine cavity, is associated with chronic pelvic pain, subfertility and an increased risk of ovarian cancer. Current treatments include the surgical removal of the lesions or the induction of a hypoestrogenic state. However, a reappearance of the lesion after surgery is common and a hypoestrogenic state is less than optimal for women of reproductive age. Additional approaches are required. Endometriosis lesions exist in a unique microenvironment characterized by increased concentrations of hormones, inflammation, oxidative stress and iron. This environment influences cell survival through the binding of membrane receptors and a subsequent cascading activation of intracellular kinases that stimulate a cellular response. Many of these kinase signalling pathways are constitutively activated in endometriosis. These pathways are being investigated as therapeutic targets in other diseases and thus may also represent a target for endometriosis treatment. METHODS To identify relevant English language studies published up to 2015 on kinase signalling pathways in endometriosis, we searched the Pubmed database using the following search terms in various combinations; 'endometriosis', 'inflammation', 'oxidative stress', 'iron', 'kinase', 'NF kappa', 'mTOR', 'MAPK' 'p38', 'JNK', 'ERK' 'estrogen' and progesterone'. Further citing references were identified using the Scopus database and finally current clinical trials were searched on the clinicaltrials.gov trial registry. RESULTS The current literature on intracellular kinases activated by the endometriotic environment can be summarized into three main pathways that could be targeted for treatments: the canonical IKKβ/NFκB pathway, the MAPK pathways (ERK1/2, p38 and JNK) and the PI3K/AKT/mTOR pathway. A number of pharmaceutical compounds that target these pathways have been successfully trialled in in vitro and animal models of endometriosis, although they have not yet proceeded to clinical trials. The current generation of kinase inhibitors carry a potential for adverse side effects. CONCLUSIONS Kinase signalling pathways represent viable targets for endometriosis treatment. At present, however, further improvements in clinical efficacy and the profile of adverse effects are required before these compounds can be useful for long-term endometriosis treatment. A better understanding of the molecular activity of these kinases, including the specific extracellular compounds that lead to their activation in endometriotic cells specifically should facilitate their improvement and could potentially lead to new, non-hormonal treatments of endometriosis.

Panels of cytokines and other secretory proteins as potential biomarkers of ovarian endometriosis.

Endometriosis is a gynecologic disease that is characterized by nonspecific symptoms and invasive diagnostics. To date, there is no adequate noninvasive method for the diagnosis of endometriosis. Although more than 100 potential biomarkers have been investigated in blood and/or peritoneal fluid, none of these has proven useful in clinical practice. The aim to find a suitable panel of biomarkers that would allow noninvasive diagnosis thus remains of interest. We evaluated the concentrations of 16 cytokines and other secretory proteins in serum and peritoneal fluid of 58 women with ovarian endometriosis (cases) and 40 healthy women undergoing sterilization or patients with benign ovarian cysts (controls) using multiplexed double fluorescence-based immunometric assay platform and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Significantly higher concentrations of glycodelin-A were shown in serum, and significantly higher levels of glycodelin-A, IL-6, and IL-8, and lower levels of leptin were measured in the peritoneal fluid of cases versus controls. In serum, the best performance was shown by models that included the ratio of leptin/glycodelin-A and the ratio of ficolin 2/glycodelin-A, whereas in the peritoneal fluid the best models included the ratio of biglycan/leptin, regulated on activation normal T-cell expressed and secreted/IL-6 and ficolin-2/glycodelin-A, and IL-8 per milligram of total protein, all in combination with age. The models using serum and peritoneal fluid distinguished between ovarian endometriosis patients and controls regardless of the menstrual cycle phase with relatively high sensitivity (72.5% to 84.2%), specificity (78.4% to 91.2%), and area under the curve (0.85 to 0.90).

Global Optimization with Sparse and Local Gaussian Process Models

We present a novel surrogate model-based global optimization framework allowing a large number of function evaluations. The method, called SpLEGO, is based on a multi-scale expected improvement (EI) framework relying on both sparse and local Gaussian process (GP) models. First, a bi-objective approach relying on a global sparse GP model is used to determine potential next sampling regions. Local GP models are then constructed within each selected region. The method subsequently employs the standard expected improvement criterion to deal with the exploration-exploitation trade-off within selected local models, leading to a decision on where to perform the next function evaluation(s). The potential of our approach is demonstrated using the so-called Sparse Pseudo-input GP as a global model. The algorithm is tested on four benchmark problems, whose number of starting points ranges from 102 to 104. Our results show that SpLEGO is effective and capable of solving problems with large number of starting points, and it even provides significant advantages when compared with state-of-the-art EI algorithms.

The Devil’s Calculus: Mathematical Models of Civil War

In spite of the movement to turn political science into a real science, various mathematical methods that are now the staples of physics, biology, and even economics are thoroughly uncommon in political science, especially the study of civil war. This study seeks to apply such methods - specifically, ordinary differential equations (ODEs) - to model civil war based on what one might dub the capabilities school of thought, which roughly states that civil wars end only when one side’s ability to make war falls far enough to make peace truly attractive. I construct several different ODE-based models and then test them all to see which best predicts the instantaneous capabilities of both sides of the Sri Lankan civil war in the period from 1990 to 1994 given parameters and initial conditions. The model that the tests declare most accurate gives very accurate predictions of state military capabilities and reasonable short term predictions of cumulative deaths. Analysis of the model reveals the scale of the importance of rebel finances to the sustainability of insurgency, most notably that the number of troops required to put down the Tamil Tigers is reduced by nearly a full order of magnitude when Tiger foreign funding is stopped. The study thus demonstrates that accurate foresight may come of relatively simple dynamical models, and implies the great potential of advanced and currently unconventional non-statistical mathematical methods in political science.

Tumor heterogeneity dictates sensitivity to gefitinib (Iressa(TM)/ZD1839) in solid tumor models

The epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) and its ligands are overexpressed in many human tumors, including bladder and pancreas, correlating with a more aggressive tumor phenotype and poor patient prognosis. We initiated the present study to characterize the heterogeneity of gefitinib responsiveness in a panel of human bladder and pancreatic cancer cell lines in order to identify the biological characteristics of EGFR-dependent proliferation that could be used to prospectively identify drug-sensitive tumors. A second objective was to elucidate how to best exploit these results by utilizing gefitinib in combination therapy. To these ends, we examined the effects of the EGFR antagonist gefitinib on proliferation and apoptosis in a panel of 18 human bladder cancer cell lines and 9 human pancreatic cancer cell lines. Our data confirmed the existence of marked heterogeneity in Iressa responsiveness with less than half of the cell lines displaying significant growth inhibition by clinically relevant concentrations of the drug. Gefitinib responsiveness was found to be p27 kip1 dependent as DNA synthesis was restored following exposure to p27siRNA. Unfortunately, Iressa responsiveness was not closely linked to surface EGFR or TGF-α expression in the bladder cancer cells, however, cellular TGF-α expression correlated directly with Iressa sensitivity in the pancreatic cancer cell lines. These findings provide the potential for prospectively identifying patients with drug-sensitive tumors. ^ Further studies aimed at exploiting gefitinib-mediated cell cycle effects led us to investigate if gefitinib-mediated TRAIL sensitization correlated with increased p27kip1 accumulation. We observed that increased TRAIL sensitivity following gefitinib exposure was not dependent on p27 kip1 expression. Additional studies initiated to examine the role(s) of Akt and Erk signaling demonstrated that exposure to PI3K or MEK inhibitors significantly enhanced TRAIL-induced apoptosis at concentrations that block target phosphorylation. Furthermore, combinations of TRAIL and the PI3K or MEK inhibitors increased procaspase-8 processing above levels observed with TRAIL alone, indicating that the effects were exerted at the level of caspase-8 activation, considered the earliest step in the TRAIL pathway. ^