Efficient knowledge retrieval to calibrate input variables in forest fire prediction

Forest fires are a serious threat to humans and nature from an ecological, social and economic point of view. Predicting their behaviour by simulation still delivers unreliable results and remains a challenging task. Latest approaches try to calibrate input variables, often tainted with imprecision, using optimisation techniques like Genetic Algorithms. To converge faster towards fitter solutions, the GA is guided with knowledge obtained from historical or synthetical fires. We developed a robust and efficient knowledge storage and retrieval method. Nearest neighbour search is applied to find the fire configuration from knowledge base most similar to the current configuration. Therefore, a distance measure was elaborated and implemented in several ways. Experiments show the performance of the different implementations regarding occupied storage and retrieval time with overly satisfactory results.

Face à la fragmentation des savoirs et des pratiques : l'apport de l'anthropologie clinique

Dans notre société caractérisée par l'« individualisme démocratique », on assiste à un développement effréné de savoirs et de pratiques, qui menace le lien social. Le monde de la science n'y échappe pas : construction de disciplines hyperspécialisées, revendiquant un territoire et une reconnaissance toujours plus difficiles à obtenir.L'anthropologie clinique, en particulier d'inspiration phénoménologique, se veut - au plus près de son étymologie - une pensée sur la pratique des soins auprès de l'homme en souffrance. Sa visée : d'une part, réinscrire une clinique des fonctions de l'organisme dans une clinique du sujet humain incarné dans son monde quotidien et, d'autre part, proposer une méthode (la réduction phénoménologique) dans le but de dégager la vision de l'homme toujours très partielle que véhicule tout modèle scientifique.L'anthropologie clinique peut-elle ainsi contribuer à l'échange entre praticiens habitant des mondes séparés ?

Scan statistics analysis of forest fire clusters

Spatio-temporal clusters in 1997?2003 fire sequences of Tuscany region (central Italy) have been identified and analysed by using the scan statistic, a method which was devised to evidence clusters in epidemiology. Results showed that the method is reliable to find clusters of events and to evaluate their significance via Monte Carlo replication. The evaluation of the presence of spatial and temporal patterns in fire occurrence and their significance could have a great impact in forthcoming studies on fire occurrences prediction.

Sostenibilitat de la fusta al PNAP: certificació FSC a la forest 141

Estudiant el sistema de certificacions, concretament el PEFC (Programme for the Endorsement of Forest Certification) i el FSC (Forest Stewardship Council), s’ha analitzat la forest CUP 141 (catalogada d'utilitat pública) Sarredo-Manyero per a identificar-ne les mancances documentals en el Projecte d’Ordenació del PNAP (Parc Natural de l’Alt Pirineu). Dels resultats se’n desprèn un major grau de sostenibilitat del sistema FSC enfront del PEFC, fet que ha estat decisiu en l’elecció del primer com a certificació a estudiar al parc. Per altra banda, s’han constatat les discrepàncies existents quant a política forestal entre propietaris de les forests i l’administració del parc. Aquest fet té una incidència negativa si es vol revitalitzar el sector de la fusta a la zona. Finalment, i un cop avaluada la documentació de la CUP 141 amb els estàndards del sistema FSC, s’ha detectat que caldria completar aproximadament el 40% de la documentació necessària per a obtenir la certificació. Per tant, s’ha dissenyat un Protocol que serveixi de guia per a un nou Projecte d’Ordenació i que permeti obtenir la certificació de les forests del parc.

Rigorous derivation of a nonlinear diffusion equation as fast-reaction limit of a continuous coagulation-fragmentation model with diffusion

Weak solutions of the spatially inhomogeneous (diffusive) Aizenmann-Bak model of coagulation-breakup within a bounded domain with homogeneous Neumann boundary conditions are shown to converge, in the fast reaction limit, towards local equilibria determined by their mass. Moreover, this mass is the solution of a nonlinear diffusion equation whose nonlinearity depends on the (size-dependent) diffusion coefficient. Initial data are assumed to have integrable zero order moment and square integrable first order moment in size, and finite entropy. In contrast to our previous result [CDF2], we are able to show the convergence without assuming uniform bounds from above and below on the number density of clusters.

Regularity and mass conservation for discrete coagulation-fragmentation equations with diffusion

We present a new a-priori estimate for discrete coagulation fragmentation systems with size-dependent diffusion within a bounded, regular domain confined by homogeneous Neumann boundary conditions. Following from a duality argument, this a-priori estimate provides a global L2 bound on the mass density and was previously used, for instance, in the context of reaction-diffusion equations. In this paper we demonstrate two lines of applications for such an estimate: On the one hand, it enables to simplify parts of the known existence theory and allows to show existence of solutions for generalised models involving collision-induced, quadratic fragmentation terms for which the previous existence theory seems difficult to apply. On the other hand and most prominently, it proves mass conservation (and thus the absence of gelation) for almost all the coagulation coefficients for which mass conservation is known to hold true in the space homogeneous case.

Ovipositional substrates used by Calyptrate Diptera in Tijuca forest, Rio de Janeiro

Twenty seven species of calyptrate muscoids were reared from a forested area of Rio de Janeiro (Tijuca Forest). Substrates for obtaining flies were beef liver, fish, mouse, frog, shrimp, snail carcasses, human faeces, banana and papaya fruits. The most frequent species found were: Fannia sp. (subgroup pusio) (49.9% on shrimp). Hemilucilia flavifacies (95.0% on liver). Phaenicia eximia (49.4% on mouse), Synthesiomyia nudiseta ( 100.0% on fish), Ophyra aenescens (100.0% on shrimp), Oxyvinia excisa (100.0% on faeces), Euboettecheria collusor (52.4% on faeces) and Pattonella intermutans (61.0% on frog).

Understanding the low-temperature limitations to forest growth through calibration of a forest dynamics model with tree-ring data

The sensitivity of altitudinal and latitudinal tree-line ecotones to climate change, particularly that of temperature, has received much attention. To improve our understanding of the factors affecting tree-line position, we used the spatially explicit dynamic forest model TreeMig. Although well-suited because of its landscape dynamics functions, TreeMig features a parabolic temperature growth response curve, which has recently been questioned. and the species parameters are not specifically calibrated for cold temperatures. Our main goals were to improve the theoretical basis of the temperature growth response curve in the model and develop a method for deriving that curve's parameters from tree-ring data. We replaced the parabola with an asymptotic curve, calibrated for the main species at the subalpine (Swiss Alps: Pinus cembra, Larix decidua, Picea abies) and boreal (Fennoscandia: Pinus sylvestris, Betula pubescens, P. abies) tree-lines. After fitting new parameters, the growth curve matched observed tree-ring widths better. For the subalpine species, the minimum degree-day sum allowing, growth (kDDMin) was lowered by around 100 degree-days; in the case of Larix, the maximum potential ring-width was increased to 5.19 mm. At the boreal tree-line, the kDDMin for P. sylvestris was lowered by 210 degree-days and its maximum ring-width increased to 2.943 mm; for Betula (new in the model) kDDMin was set to 325 degree-days and the maximum ring-width to 2.51 mm; the values from the only boreal sample site for Picea were similar to the subalpine ones, so the same parameters were used. However, adjusting the growth response alone did not improve the model's output concerning species' distributions and their relative importance at tree-line. Minimum winter temperature (MinWiT, mean of the coldest winter month), which controls seedling establishment in TreeMig, proved more important for determining distribution. Picea, P. sylvestris and Betula did not previously have minimum winter temperature limits, so these values were set to the 95th percentile of each species' coldest MinWiT site (respectively -7, -11, -13). In a case study for the Alps, the original and newly calibrated versions of TreeMig were compared with biomass data from the National Forest Inventor), (NFI). Both models gave similar, reasonably realistic results. In conclusion, this method of deriving temperature responses from tree-rings works well. However, regeneration and its underlying factors seem more important for controlling species' distributions than previously thought. More research on regeneration ecology, especially at the upper limit of forests. is needed to improve predictions of tree-line responses to climate change further.

Forest culicinae mosquitoes in the environs of samuel hydroeletric plant, state of Rondônia, Brazil

Data on frequency and seasonal distribution of culicinae were recorded in the forest near a recently constructed hydroelectric plant - Samuel, in the State of Rondônia, Brazilian Amazon. Collections were performed almost daily from August 1990 to July 1991, between 6 and 9 p.m., using human bait. A total of 3,769 mosquitoes was collected, representing 21 species, including seven new records for the State of Rondônia. The most frequently collected species were Aedes fulvus (25%) and Ae. pennai (12.3%). The highest density for the majority of mosquito species coincided with the rainy season.

Simian malaria at two sites in the Brazilian Amazon - II: Vertical distribution and frequency of anopheline species inside and outside the forest

An anopheline survey was carried out in two simian malaria areas in the Brazilian Amazon, Balbina and Samuel, to determine the potential vectors of Plasmodium brasilianum. The most abundant and/or acrodendrophilic anophelines in the forest and the most likely vector were Anopheles mediopunctatus, An. nuneztovari, An. oswaldoi, An. triannulatus and An. shannoni. An. darlingi and An. marajoara were captured essentially in anthropic habitats outside the forest and are unlikely to be involved in the transmission of P. brasilianum among monkeys within the forests and from monkeys to man in their surroundings in the Amazon.

Distribution of Sandflies (Diptera:Psychodidae) on Tree-trunks in a Non-flooded Area of the Ducke Forest Reserve, Manaus, AM, Brazil

Sandflies were collected in the base of tree-trunks in the seasons of high and least rainfall in the Ducke Forest Reserve, near Manaus in the State of Amazonas. Lutzomyia umbratilis was the most abundant sandfly species. Caryocar villosum, Chrysophyllum amazonicum, Dinizia excelsa, Eschweilera atropetiolata and Parkia multijuga were the tree species on which most sandflies were collected and relative abundance were related to trunk characteristics. Seasonal patterns of sandfly distribution in the forest were observed.

A Mitochondrial DNA Phylogeny Indicates Close Relationships between Populations of Lutzomyia whitmani (Diptera: Psychodidae, Phlebotominae) from the Rain-forest Regions of Amazônia and Northeast Brazil

Phylogenetic analysis of all 31 described mitochondrial (cytochrome b) haplotypes of Lutzomyia whitmani demonstrated that new material from the State of Rondônia, in southwest Amazônia, forms a clade within a lineage found only in the rain-forest regions of Brazil. This rain-forest lineage also contains two other clades of haplotypes, one from eastern Amazônia and one from the Atlantic forest zone of northeast Brazil (including the type locality of the species in Ilhéus, State of Bahia). These findings do not favour recognizing two allopatric cryptic species of L. whitmani, one associated with the silvatic transmission of Leishmania shawi in southeast Amazônia and the other with the peridomestic transmission of Le. braziliensis in northeast Brazil. Instead, they suggest that there is (or has been in the recent past) a continuum of inter-breeding populations of L. whitmani in the rain-forest regions of Brazil.

Institutional fragmentation and coordination initiatives in western European welfare states

As a result of recent welfare state transformations, and most notably the reorientation of welfare states towards activation, the internal fragmentation of social security systems has emerged as a key policy problem in many western European countries. The types of response that have been adopted, however, vary substantially across countries, ranging from the encouragement of inter-agency collaboration to the outright merger of agencies. The purpose of this exploratory article is twofold. First, by proposing the concept of coordination initiatives, it tries to develop a better conceptualization of the cross-national diversity in responses to the fragmentation problem. Second, starting from existing theories of welfare state development and policy change, it presents first hypotheses accounting for the variation observed in coordination initiatives.