Prediction of psychological adjustment to multiple sclerosis

This study examined the utility of self-efficacy as a predictor of social activity and mood control in multiple sclerosis (MS). Seventy-one subjects with MS were recruited from people attending an MS centre or from a mailing list and were examined on two occasions that were two months apart. Clinic patients were more disabled than patients who completed assessments by post, but they were of higher socioeconomic status and were less dysphoric; We attempted to predict self-reported performance of mood control and social activity at two months, from self-efficacy or performance on these tasks at pretest. Demographic variables, disorder status, disability, self-esteem and depression were also allowed to compete for entry into multiple regressions. Substantial stability in mood, performance and disability was observed over the two months. In both mood control and social activity, past performance was the strongest predictor of later performance, but self-efficacy also contributed significantly to the prediction. The disability level entered a prediction of social activity; but no other variables predicted either type of performance. A secondary analysis predicting self-esteem at two months also included self-efficacy for social activity, illustrating the contribution of perceived capability to later assessments of self-worth. The study provided support for self-efficacy as a predictor of later behavioural outcomes and self-esteem in multiple sclerosis. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Optimal quantum measurements for phase-shift estimation in optical interferometry

Quantum information theory, applied to optical interferometry, yields a 1/n scaling of phase uncertainty Delta phi independent of the applied phase shift phi, where n is the number of photons in the interferometer. This 1/n scaling is achieved provided that the output state is subjected to an optimal phase measurement. We establish this scaling law for both passive (linear) and active (nonlinear) interferometers and identify the coefficient of proportionality. Whereas a highly nonclassical state is required to achieve optimal scaling for passive interferometry, a classical input state yields a 1/n scaling of phase uncertainty for active interferometry.

Evaluating SVM and MLDA in the extraction of discriminant regions for mental state prediction

Pattern recognition methods have been successfully applied in several functional neuroimaging studies. These methods can be used to infer cognitive states, so-called brain decoding. Using such approaches, it is possible to predict the mental state of a subject or a stimulus class by analyzing the spatial distribution of neural responses. In addition it is possible to identify the regions of the brain containing the information that underlies the classification. The Support Vector Machine (SVM) is one of the most popular methods used to carry out this type of analysis. The aim of the current study is the evaluation of SVM and Maximum uncertainty Linear Discrimination Analysis (MLDA) in extracting the voxels containing discriminative information for the prediction of mental states. The comparison has been carried out using fMRI data from 41 healthy control subjects who participated in two experiments, one involving visual-auditory stimulation and the other based on bimanual fingertapping sequences. The results suggest that MLDA uses significantly more voxels containing discriminative information (related to different experimental conditions) to classify the data. On the other hand, SVM is more parsimonious and uses less voxels to achieve similar classification accuracies. In conclusion, MLDA is mostly focused on extracting all discriminative information available, while SVM extracts the information which is sufficient for classification. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Electrical and chemical diagnostics of transformers insulation .A. Aged transformer samples

This paper describes the application of two relatively new diagnostic techniques for the determination of insulation condition in aged transformers. The techniques are (a) measurements of interfacial polarization spectra by a DC method and (b) measurements of molecular weight and its distribution by gel permeation chromatography. Several other electrical properties of the cellulose polymer were also investigated. Samples were obtained from a retired power transformer and they were analysed by the developed techniques. Six distribution transformers were also tested with the interfacial polarization spectra measurement technique, and the molecular weight of paper/pressboard samples from these transformers were also measured by the gel permeation chromatography. The variation of the results through different locations in a power transformer is discussed in this paper. The possible correlation between different measured properties was investigated and discussed in this paper.

Electrical and chemical diagnostics of transformers insulation .B. Accelerated aged insulation samples

This paper describes the analysis of accelerated aged insulation samples to investigate the degradation processes observed in the insulation from aged transformers. Short term accelerated ageing experiments were performed on paper wrapped insulated conductors and on pressboard samples. The condition of aged insulation samples was investigated by two relatively new diagnostic techniques: (a) measurements of interfacial polarization spectra by a DC method (b) measurements of molecular weight and its distribution by gel permeation chromatography. Several other electrical properties of the paper/pressboard samples were also studied. Possible correlations have been investigated among the different measured properties. The GPC results have been used to predict how molecular weights change with temperature and time.

Chemical characterization of soils of a tropical humid forest zone: A methodology

A methodology, based on a combination of routinely performed analyses and investigation of fundamental charge and anion sorption properties, was used to characterize the soils of the humid forest zone of Cameroon, In general, the soils have about 2 cmol kg(-1) permanent negative charge, with about 1 cmol kg(-1) from variable-charge sources at current soil pH values, Furthermore, they are impoverished with respect to Ca, Mg, and K, while Al frequently dominates the exchange complex. Thus, the ability of these soils to retain base cations is more limited than is suggested by the cation-exchange capacity (CEC), Therefore we propose the concept of a degradation index (DI) defined as: DI = 100(CEC5.5 - sum of basic cations)/CEC5.5, where CEC5.5 is the CEC measured at pH 5.5, This index encompasses degradation a soil may have experienced from natural or man-made causes, Extractable PO4 concentrations are considered very low and the soils have a moderate to high capacity to fix added PO4. Surface soil SO4 concentrations are considered marginal to deficient for plant growth, though adequate reserves of SO4 are held in the subsoil by SO4 sorption, The approach used demonstrated that the five morphologically different soil profile classes identified in the zone have similar chemical characteristics. Thus, the results of experimentation conducted on one of the soil profile classes will be applicable throughout the zone, Furthermore, the approach has provided a means of identifying comparable soil types in other parts of the world and will guide technology transfer, The analytical methods used in this study are relatively simple and require no specialized equipment, and are therefore within the capabilities of many laboratories in the developing world.

New body fat prediction equations for severely obese patients

Background & aims: Severe obesity imposes physical limitations to body composition assessment. Our aim was to compare body fat (BF) estimations of severely obese patients obtained by bioelectrical impedance (BIA) and air displacement plethysmography (ADP) for development of new equations for BF prediction. Methods: Severely obese subjects (83 female/36 mate, mean age = 41.6 +/- 11.6 years) had BF estimated by BIA and ADP. The agreement of the data was evaluated using Bland-Altman`s graphic and concordance correlation coefficient (CCC). A multivariate regression analysis was performed to develop and validate new predictive equations. Results: BF estimations from BIA (64.8 +/- 15 kg) and ADP (65.6 +/- 16.4 kg) did not differ (p > 0.05, with good accuracy, precision, and CCC), but the Bland- Altman graphic showed a wide Limit of agreement (- 10.4; 8.8). The standard BIA equation overestimated BF in women (-1.3 kg) and underestimated BF in men (5.6 kg; p < 0.05). Two BF new predictive equations were generated after BIA measurement, which predicted BF with higher accuracy, precision, CCC, and limits of agreement than the standard BIA equation. Conclusions: Standard BIA equations were inadequate for estimating BF in severely obese patients. Equations developed especially for this population provide more accurate BF assessment. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

Very early prediction of response to HCV treatment with PEG-IFN-alfa-2a and ribavirin in HIV/HCV-coinfected patients

The objective of this study was to find very early viral kinetic markers to predict nonresponse to hepatitis C virus (HCV) therapy in a group of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/HCV-coinfected patients. Twenty-six patients (15 HCV genotype-1 and 11 genotype-3) were treated with a 48-week regimen of peginterferon-alfa-2a (PEG-IFN) (180 mu g/week) and weight-based ribavirin (11 mg/kg/day). Samples were collected at baseline; 4, 8, 12, 18, 24, 30, 36 and 42 h; days 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 15, 22, 29, 43 and 57 then weekly and monthly. Five patients discontinued treatment. Seven patients (27%) achieved a sustained virological response (SVR). Nadir HCV RNA levels were observed 1.6 +/- 0.3 days after initiation of therapy, followed by a 0.3- to 12.9-fold viral rebound until the administration of the second dose of PEG-IFN, which were not associated with SVR or HCV genotype. A viral decline < 1.19 log for genotype-1 and < 0.97 log for genotype-3, 2 days after starting therapy, had a negative predictive value (NPV) of 100% for SVR. The day 2 virological response had a similar positive predictive value for SVR as a rapid virological response at week 4. In addition, a second-phase viral decline slope (i.e., measured from day 2 to 29) < 0.3 log/week had a NPV = 100% for SVR. We conclude that first-phase viral decline at day 2 and second-phase viral decline slope (< 0.3 log/week) are excellent predictors of nonresponse. Further studies are needed to validate these viral kinetic parameters as early on-treatment prognosticators of nonresponse in patients with HCV and HIV.

Early identification of leptospirosis-associated pulmonary hemorrhage syndrome by use of a validated prediction model

Objective: To identify prediction factors for the development of leptospirosis-associated pulmonary hemorrhage syndrome (LPHS). Methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study. The study comprised of 203 patients, aged >= 14 years, admitted with complications of the severe form of leptospirosis at the Emilio Ribas Institute of Infectology (Sao Paulo, Brazil) between 1998 and 2004. Laboratory and demographic data were obtained and the severity of illness score and involvement of the lungs and others organs were determined. Logistic regression was performed to identify independent predictors of LPHS. A prospective validation cohort of 97 subjects with severe form of leptospirosis admitted at the same hospital between 2004 and 2006 was used to independently evaluate the predictive value of the model. Results: The overall mortality rate was 7.9%. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that five factors were independently associated with the development of LPHS: serum potassium (mmol/L) (OR = 2.6; 95% CI = 1.1-5.9); serum creatinine (mmol/L) (OR = 1.2; 95% CI = 1.1-1.4); respiratory rate (breaths/min) (OR = 1.1; 95% CI = 1.1-1.2); presenting shock (OR = 69.9; 95% CI = 20.1-236.4), and Glasgow Coma Scale Score (GCS) < 15 (OR = 7.7; 95% CI = 1.3-23.0). We used these findings to calculate the risk of LPHS by the use of a spreadsheet. In the validation cohort, the equation classified correctly 92% of patients (Kappa statistic = 0.80). Conclusions: We developed and validated a multivariate model for predicting LPHS. This tool should prove useful in identifying LPHS patients, allowing earlier management and thereby reducing mortality. (C) 2009 The British Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Individual risk prediction of nodal and distant metastasis for patients with typical bronchial carcinoid tumors

Objective: Bronchial typical carcinoid tumors are tow-grade malignancies. However, metastases are diagnosed in some patients. Predicting the individual risk of these metastases to determine patients eligible for a radical lymphadenectomy and patients to be followed-up because of distant metastasis risk is relevant. Our objective was to screen for predictive criteria of bronchial typical carcinoid tumor aggressiveness based on a logistic regression model using clinical, pathological and biomolecular data. Methods: A multicenter retrospective cohort study, including 330 consecutive patients operated on for bronchial typical carcinoid tumors and followed-up during a period more than 10 years in two university hospitals was performed. Selected data to predict the individual risk for both nodal and distant metastasis were: age, gender, TNM staging, tumor diameter and location (central/peripheral), tumor immunostaining index of p53 and Ki67, Bcl2 and the extracellular density of neoformed microvessels and of collagen/elastic extracellular fibers. Results: Nodal and distant metastasis incidence was 11% and 5%, respectively. Univariate analysis identified all the studied biomarkers as related to nodal metastasis. Multivariate analysis identified a predictive variable for nodal metastasis: neo angiogenesis, quantified by the neoformed pathological microvessels density. Distant metastasis was related to mate gender. Discussion: Predictive models based on clinical and biomolecular data could be used to predict individual risk for metastasis. Patients under a high individual risk for lymph node metastasis should be considered as candidates to mediastinal lymphadenectomy. Those under a high risk of distant metastasis should be followed-up as having an aggressive disease. Conclusion: Individual risk prediction of bronchial typical carcinoid tumor metastasis for patients operated on can be calculated in function of biomolecular data. Prediction models can detect high-risk patients and help surgeons to identify patients requiring radical lymphadenectomy and help oncologists to identify those as having an aggressive disease requiring prolonged follow-up. (C) 2008 European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Integrating toxicity testing in the wastewater management of chemical storage terminals - A proposal based on a ten-year study

Wastewater control at storage terminals of liquid chemical products in bulk is very difficult because of the variety of products handled in the facilities generating effluents of variable composition. The main objective of this work was to verify if the Vibrio fischeri acute toxicity test could be routinely included in the wastewater management of those facilities along with physical and chemical analysis in order to evaluate and improve the quality of the generated effluents. The study was performed in two phases before and after the implementation of better operational practices/treatment technologies. Chemical oxygen demand (COD) and toxicity of treated effluents did not correlate showing that effluents with low COD contain toxic substances and non-biodegradable organic matter, which may be not degraded when discharged into the aquatic environment. Segregation of influents or pre-treatment based on toxicity results and biodegradability index were implemented in the facilities generating significant improvements in the quality of final effluents with reduction of Biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) and toxicity. The integration of physical and chemical analysis with the V.fischeri toxicity test turned out to be an excellent tool for wastewater management in chemical terminals allowing rapid decision making for pollution control and prevention measures. Reuse of rain water was also proposed and when implemented by the facilities resulted in economical and environmental benefits. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparison of HRT-3 glaucoma probability score and subjective stereophotograph assessment for prediction of progression in glaucoma

PURPOSE. To assess whether baseline Glaucoma Probability Score (GPS; HRT-3; Heidelberg Engineering, Dossenheim, Germany) results are predictive of progression in patients with suspected glaucoma. The GPS is a new feature of the confocal scanning laser ophthalmoscope that generates an operator-independent, three-dimensional model of the optic nerve head and gives a score for the probability that this model is consistent with glaucomatous damage. METHODS. The study included 223 patients with suspected glaucoma during an average follow-up of 63.3 months. Included subjects had a suspect optic disc appearance and/or elevated intraocular pressure, but normal visual fields. Conversion was defined as development of either repeatable abnormal visual fields or glaucomatous deterioration in the appearance of the optic disc during the study period. The association between baseline GPS and conversion was investigated by Cox regression models. RESULTS. Fifty-four (24.2%) eyes converted. In multivariate models, both higher values of GPS global and subjective stereophotograph assessment ( larger cup-disc ratio and glaucomatous grading) were predictive of conversion: adjusted hazard ratios (95% CI): 1.31 (1.15 - 1.50) per 0.1 higher global GPS, 1.34 (1.12 - 1.62) per 0.1 higher CDR, and 2.34 (1.22 - 4.47) for abnormal grading, respectively. No significant differences ( P > 0.05 for all comparisons) were found between the c-index values ( equivalent to area under ROC curve) for the multivariate models (0.732, 0.705, and 0.699, respectively). CONCLUSIONS. GPS values were predictive of conversion in our population of patients with suspected glaucoma. Further, they performed as well as subjective assessment of the optic disc. These results suggest that GPS could potentially replace stereophotograph as a tool for estimating the likelihood of conversion to glaucoma.