Markovian Processes, Two-Sided Autoregressions and Finite-Sample Inference for Stationary and Nonstationary Autoregressive Processes.

In this paper, we develop finite-sample inference procedures for stationary and nonstationary autoregressive (AR) models. The method is based on special properties of Markov processes and a split-sample technique. The results on Markovian processes (intercalary independence and truncation) only require the existence of conditional densities. They are proved for possibly nonstationary and/or non-Gaussian multivariate Markov processes. In the context of a linear regression model with AR(1) errors, we show how these results can be used to simplify the distributional properties of the model by conditioning a subset of the data on the remaining observations. This transformation leads to a new model which has the form of a two-sided autoregression to which standard classical linear regression inference techniques can be applied. We show how to derive tests and confidence sets for the mean and/or autoregressive parameters of the model. We also develop a test on the order of an autoregression. We show that a combination of subsample-based inferences can improve the performance of the procedure. An application to U.S. domestic investment data illustrates the method.

Some Applications of Markov Additive Processes as Models in Insurance and Financial Mathematics

Cette thèse est principalement constituée de trois articles traitant des processus markoviens additifs, des processus de Lévy et d'applications en finance et en assurance. Le premier chapitre est une introduction aux processus markoviens additifs (PMA), et une présentation du problème de ruine et de notions fondamentales des mathématiques financières. Le deuxième chapitre est essentiellement l'article "Lévy Systems and the Time Value of Ruin for Markov Additive Processes" écrit en collaboration avec Manuel Morales et publié dans la revue European Actuarial Journal. Cet article étudie le problème de ruine pour un processus de risque markovien additif. Une identification de systèmes de Lévy est obtenue et utilisée pour donner une expression de l'espérance de la fonction de pénalité actualisée lorsque le PMA est un processus de Lévy avec changement de régimes. Celle-ci est une généralisation des résultats existant dans la littérature pour les processus de risque de Lévy et les processus de risque markoviens additifs avec sauts "phase-type". Le troisième chapitre contient l'article "On a Generalization of the Expected Discounted Penalty Function to Include Deficits at and Beyond Ruin" qui est soumis pour publication. Cet article présente une extension de l'espérance de la fonction de pénalité actualisée pour un processus subordinateur de risque perturbé par un mouvement brownien. Cette extension contient une série de fonctions escomptée éspérée des minima successives dus aux sauts du processus de risque après la ruine. Celle-ci a des applications importantes en gestion de risque et est utilisée pour déterminer la valeur espérée du capital d'injection actualisé. Finallement, le quatrième chapitre contient l'article "The Minimal entropy martingale measure (MEMM) for a Markov-modulated exponential Lévy model" écrit en collaboration avec Romuald Hervé Momeya et publié dans la revue Asia-Pacific Financial Market. Cet article présente de nouveaux résultats en lien avec le problème de l'incomplétude dans un marché financier où le processus de prix de l'actif risqué est décrit par un modèle exponentiel markovien additif. Ces résultats consistent à charactériser la mesure martingale satisfaisant le critère de l'entropie. Cette mesure est utilisée pour calculer le prix d'une option, ainsi que des portefeuilles de couverture dans un modèle exponentiel de Lévy avec changement de régimes.

Applying 3D modelling technology to traditional craftwork : rapid prototyping in artisanal jewellery making and its impact on the perceived value of jewellery

Depuis la révolution industrielle, l’évolution de la technologie bouleverse le monde de la fabrication. Aujourd'hui, de nouvelles technologies telles que le prototypage rapide font une percée dans des domaines comme celui de la fabrication de bijoux, appartenant jadis à l'artisanat et en bouscule les traditions par l'introduction de méthodes plus rapides et plus faciles. Cette recherche vise à répondre aux deux questions suivantes : - ‘En quoi le prototypage rapide influence-t-il la pratique de fabrication de bijoux?’ - ‘En quoi influence-t-il de potentiels acheteurs dans leur appréciation du bijou?’ L' approche consiste en une collecte de données faite au cours de trois entretiens avec différents bijoutiers et une rencontre de deux groupes de discussion composés de consommateurs potentiels. Les résultats ont révélé l’utilité du prototypage rapide pour surmonter un certain nombre d'obstacles inhérents au fait-main, tel que dans sa géométrie, sa commercialisation, et sa finesse de détails. Cependant, il se crée une distance entre la main du bijoutier et l'objet, changeant ainsi la nature de la pratique. Cette technologie est perçue comme un moyen moins authentique car la machine rappelle la production de masse et la possibilité de reproduction en série détruit la notion d’unicité du bijou, en réduisant ainsi sa charge émotionnelle. Cette recherche propose une meilleure compréhension de l'utilisation du prototypage rapide et de ses conséquences dans la fabrication de bijoux. Peut-être ouvrira-t-elle la voie à une recherche visant un meilleur mariage entre cette technique et les méthodes traditionnelles.

Analysis and Optimization of Machining Process Using Evolutionary Algorithms

To ensure quality of machined products at minimum machining costs and maximum machining effectiveness, it is very important to select optimum parameters when metal cutting machine tools are employed. Traditionally, the experience of the operator plays a major role in the selection of optimum metal cutting conditions. However, attaining optimum values each time by even a skilled operator is difficult. The non-linear nature of the machining process has compelled engineers to search for more effective methods to attain optimization. The design objective preceding most engineering design activities is simply to minimize the cost of production or to maximize the production efficiency. The main aim of research work reported here is to build robust optimization algorithms by exploiting ideas that nature has to offer from its backyard and using it to solve real world optimization problems in manufacturing processes.In this thesis, after conducting an exhaustive literature review, several optimization techniques used in various manufacturing processes have been identified. The selection of optimal cutting parameters, like depth of cut, feed and speed is a very important issue for every machining process. Experiments have been designed using Taguchi technique and dry turning of SS420 has been performed on Kirlosker turn master 35 lathe. Analysis using S/N and ANOVA were performed to find the optimum level and percentage of contribution of each parameter. By using S/N analysis the optimum machining parameters from the experimentation is obtained.Optimization algorithms begin with one or more design solutions supplied by the user and then iteratively check new design solutions, relative search spaces in order to achieve the true optimum solution. A mathematical model has been developed using response surface analysis for surface roughness and the model was validated using published results from literature.Methodologies in optimization such as Simulated annealing (SA), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Conventional Genetic Algorithm (CGA) and Improved Genetic Algorithm (IGA) are applied to optimize machining parameters while dry turning of SS420 material. All the above algorithms were tested for their efficiency, robustness and accuracy and observe how they often outperform conventional optimization method applied to difficult real world problems. The SA, PSO, CGA and IGA codes were developed using MATLAB. For each evolutionary algorithmic method, optimum cutting conditions are provided to achieve better surface finish.The computational results using SA clearly demonstrated that the proposed solution procedure is quite capable in solving such complicated problems effectively and efficiently. Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is a relatively recent heuristic search method whose mechanics are inspired by the swarming or collaborative behavior of biological populations. From the results it has been observed that PSO provides better results and also more computationally efficient.Based on the results obtained using CGA and IGA for the optimization of machining process, the proposed IGA provides better results than the conventional GA. The improved genetic algorithm incorporating a stochastic crossover technique and an artificial initial population scheme is developed to provide a faster search mechanism. Finally, a comparison among these algorithms were made for the specific example of dry turning of SS 420 material and arriving at optimum machining parameters of feed, cutting speed, depth of cut and tool nose radius for minimum surface roughness as the criterion. To summarize, the research work fills in conspicuous gaps between research prototypes and industry requirements, by simulating evolutionary procedures seen in nature that optimize its own systems.

Studies on Advanced Oxidation Processes for the Removal of Acetamiprid from Wastewater

Pollution of water with pesticides has become a threat to the man, material and environment. The pesticides released to the environment reach the water bodies through run off. Industrial wastewater from pesticide manufacturing industries contains pesticides at higher concentration and hence a major source of water pollution. Pesticides create a lot of health and environmental hazards which include diseases like cancer, liver and kidney disorders, reproductive disorders, fatal death, birth defects etc. Conventional wastewater treatment plants based on biological treatment are not efficient to remove these compounds to the desired level. Most of the pesticides are phyto-toxic i.e., they kill the microorganism responsible for the degradation and are recalcitrant in nature. Advanced oxidation process (AOP) is a class of oxidation techniques where hydroxyl radicals are employed for oxidation of pollutants. AOPs have the ability to totally mineralise the organic pollutants to CO2 and water. Different methods are employed for the generation of hydroxyl radicals in AOP systems. Acetamiprid is a neonicotinoid insecticide widely used to control sucking type insects on crops such as leafy vegetables, citrus fruits, pome fruits, grapes, cotton, ornamental flowers. It is now recommended as a substitute for organophosphorous pesticides. Since its use is increasing, its presence is increasingly found in the environment. It has high water solubility and is not easily biodegradable. It has the potential to pollute surface and ground waters. Here, the use of AOPs for the removal of acetamiprid from wastewater has been investigated. Five methods were selected for the study based on literature survey and preliminary experiments conducted. Fenton process, UV treatment, UV/ H2O2 process, photo-Fenton and photocatalysis using TiO2 were selected for study. Undoped TiO2 and TiO2 doped with Cu and Fe were prepared by sol-gel method. Characterisation of the prepared catalysts was done by X-ray diffraction, scanning electron microscope, differential thermal analysis and thermogravimetric analysis. Influence of major operating parameters on the removal of acetamiprid has been investigated. All the experiments were designed using central compoiste design (CCD) of response surface methodology (RSM). Model equations were developed for Fenton, UV/ H2O2, photo-Fenton and photocatalysis for predicting acetamiprid removal and total organic carbon (TOC) removal for different operating conditions. Quality of the models were analysed by statistical methods. Experimental validations were also done to confirm the quality of the models. Optimum conditions obtained by experiment were verified with that obtained using response optimiser. Fenton Process is the simplest and oldest AOP where hydrogen peroxide and iron are employed for the generation of hydroxyl radicals. Influence of H2O2 and Fe2+ on the acetamiprid removal and TOC removal by Fenton process were investigated and it was found that removal increases with increase in H2O2 and Fe2+ concentration. At an initial concentration of 50 mg/L acetamiprid, 200 mg/L H2O2 and 20 mg/L Fe2+ at pH 3 was found to be optimum for acetamiprid removal. For UV treatment effect of pH was studied and it was found that pH has not much effect on the removal rate. Addition of H2O2 to UV process increased the removal rate because of the hydroxyl radical formation due to photolyis of H2O2. An H2O2 concentration of 110 mg/L at pH 6 was found to be optimum for acetamiprid removal. With photo-Fenton drastic reduction in the treatment time was observed with 10 times reduction in the amount of reagents required. H2O2 concentration of 20 mg/L and Fe2+ concentration of 2 mg/L was found to be optimum at pH 3. With TiO2 photocatalysis improvement in the removal rate was noticed compared to UV treatment. Effect of Cu and Fe doping on the photocatalytic activity under UV light was studied and it was observed that Cu doping enhanced the removal rate slightly while Fe doping has decreased the removal rate. Maximum acetamiprid removal was observed for an optimum catalyst loading of 1000 mg/L and Cu concentration of 1 wt%. It was noticed that mineralisation efficiency of the processes is low compared to acetamiprid removal efficiency. This may be due to the presence of stable intermediate compounds formed during degradation Kinetic studies were conducted for all the treatment processes and it was found that all processes follow pseudo-first order kinetics. Kinetic constants were found out from the experimental data for all the processes and half lives were calculated. The rate of reaction was in the order, photo- Fenton>UV/ H2O2>Fenton> TiO2 photocatalysis>UV. Operating cost was calculated for the processes and it was found that photo-Fenton removes the acetamiprid at lowest operating cost in lesser time. A kinetic model was developed for photo-Fenton process using the elementary reaction data and mass balance equations for the species involved in the process. Variation of acetamiprid concentration with time for different H2O2 and Fe2+ concentration at pH 3 can be found out using this model. The model was validated by comparing the simulated concentration profiles with that obtained from experiments. This study established the viability of the selected AOPs for the removal of acetamiprid from wastewater. Of the studied AOPs photo- Fenton gives the highest removal efficiency with lowest operating cost within shortest time.

Assembly Design and Evaluation in an Augmented Reality Environment

The technologies and methodologies of assembly design and evaluation in the early design stage are highly significant to product development. This paper looks at a promising technology to mix real components (e.g. physical prototypes, assembly tools, machines, etc.) with virtual components to create an Augmented Reality (AR) interface for assembly process evaluation. The goal of this paper is to clarify the methodologies and enabling technologies of how to establish an AR assembly simulation and evaluation environment. The architecture of an AR assembly system is proposed and the important functional modules including AR environment set-up, design for assembly (DFA) analysis and AR assembly sequence planning in an AR environment are discussed in detail.

Coordinating Inventory Control and Pricing Strategies with Random Demand and Fixed Ordering Cost: the Infinite Horizon Case

We analyze an infinite horizon, single product, periodic review model in which pricing and production/inventory decisions are made simultaneously. Demands in different periods are identically distributed random variables that are independent of each other and their distributions depend on the product price. Pricing and ordering decisions are made at the beginning of each period and all shortages are backlogged. Ordering cost includes both a fixed cost and a variable cost proportional to the amount ordered. The objective is to maximize expected discounted, or expected average profit over the infinite planning horizon. We show that a stationary (s,S,p) policy is optimal for both the discounted and average profit models with general demand functions. In such a policy, the period inventory is managed based on the classical (s,S) policy and price is determined based on the inventory position at the beginning of each period.

Modeling and Analysis of Two-Part Type Manufacturing Systems

This paper presents a model and analysis of a synchronous tandem flow line that produces different part types on unreliable machines. The machines operate according to a static priority rule, operating on the highest priority part whenever possible, and operating on lower priority parts only when unable to produce those with higher priorities. We develop a new decomposition method to analyze the behavior of the manufacturing system by decomposing the long production line into small analytically tractable components. As a first step in modeling a production line with more than one part type, we restrict ourselves to the case where there are two part types. Detailed modeling and derivations are presented with a small two-part-type production line that consists of two processing machines and two demand machines. Then, a generalized longer flow line is analyzed. Furthermore, estimates for performance measures, such as average buffer levels and production rates, are presented and compared to extensive discrete event simulation. The quantitative behavior of the two-part type processing line under different demand scenarios is also provided.

Implementation of global make to inventory strategy at BASF SE

La optimización y armonización son factores clave para tener un buen desempeño en la industria química. BASF ha desarrollado un proyecto llamada acelerador. El objetivo de este proyecto ha sido la armonización y la integración de los procesos de la cadena de suministro a nivel mundial. El proceso básico de manejo de inventarios se quedó fuera del proyecto y debía ser analizado. El departamento de manejo de inventarios en BASF SE ha estado desarrollando su propia estrategia para la definición de procesos globales de manufactura. En este trabajo se presentará un informe de las fases de la formulación de la estrategia y establecer algunas pautas para la fase de implementación que está teniendo lugar en 2012 y 2013.

Big Data: Wrongs and Rights by Andrew Cormack (WAIS Seminar)

Abstract: Big Data has been characterised as a great economic opportunity and a massive threat to privacy. Both may be correct: the same technology can indeed be used in ways that are highly beneficial and those that are ethically intolerable, maybe even simultaneously. Using examples of how Big Data might be used in education - normally referred to as "learning analytics" - the seminar will discuss possible ethical and legal frameworks for Big Data, and how these might guide the development of technologies, processes and policies that can deliver the benefits of Big Data without the nightmares. Speaker Biography: Andrew Cormack is Chief Regulatory Adviser, Jisc Technologies. He joined the company in 1999 as head of the JANET-CERT and EuroCERT incident response teams. In his current role he concentrates on the security, policy and regulatory issues around the network and services that Janet provides to its customer universities and colleges. Previously he worked for Cardiff University running web and email services, and for NERC's Shipboard Computer Group. He has degrees in Mathematics, Humanities and Law.

Tecnología RFID en Colombia, un negocio con muchas oportunidades

Este trabajo busca identificar y definir porque la tecnología RFID puede ser un buen negocio de oportunidad en el mercado Colombiano, cada vez esté, está más enfocado en generar procesos de mejora continua que produzcan eficiencia al interior de las organizaciones, actualmente el uso de la tecnología es una herramienta clave para que las organizaciones se mantengan a la vanguardia. Con base en el estudio vemos que la tecnología RFID, genera eficiencia en el flujo de la información, mejora el control de inventarios y genera seguridad en estos, además de la disminución en los procesos y operaciones, e incrementa la velocidad en la toma de decisiones, por otro lado existe un mercado a explotar que es el de los hoteles, en la medida en que estos pueden controlar sus inventarios de objetos como sabanas, cobijas, etc. Evitando perder estos productos por robos. Un problema de esta tecnología son los altos costos, que impiden que empresas medianas y pequeñas puedan invertir en estos procesos.

Contribuyendo al reto de la sostenibilidad: el sistema producto- servicio en la industria de la moda rápida

El presente proyecto de grado se inscribe bajo el proyecto de Responsabilidad Social Empresarial de la línea de investigación de Realidad Empresarial de la Facultad de Administración de la Universidad del Rosario. El problema de investigación surge de dos problemas actuales, que convergen en la insostenibilidad a largo y mediano plazo de la manera en que se hacen la mayoría de los negocios hoy en día. El primer problema, es el de suficiencia, se evidencia desde el punto de vista del consumidor, el cual pareciera estar diseñado para comprar y acumular objetos y cosas que luego de un tiempo irán a parar a la basura. El segundo problema es el modelo de negocio que extrae recursos, los transforma, los comercializa de manera repetitiva y obliga al cliente a seguir comprando, olvidando que la mayoría de cosas que produce, terminan en el basurero. La deficiencia actual del consumismo insostenible y del diseño que no piensa en las generaciones futuras son dos caras de la misma moneda. Por eso es que se estudia el problema desde la perspectiva tanto del consumidor, como del productor. Las tendencias internacionales relacionadas con la sostenibilidad están llevando a los negocios por una nueva senda, la cual les dará ventajas competitivas a los adoptadores tempranos. A raíz de los problemas planteados y con el objetivo de encontrar la sostenibilidad empresarial, se estudia una posible solución para cada actor del problema. Por el lado del consumidor, se analiza la teoría que gira alrededor del consumo responsable y de cómo los consumidores tienen el poder de causar un efecto positivo con lo que mejor saben hacer: comprando (y eligiendo que comprar). Por el lado del productor se estudia un nuevo modelo de negocios llamado el sistema producto-servicio, el cual se enfoca a satisfacer necesidades de los clientes por medio de una combinación de prestación de servicios y facilitación de productos, en vez de la comercialización de estos. Es decir que en vez de vender cosas que los consumidores quieran acumular (problema de suficiencia), se les vende soluciones que satisfagan sus necesidades, reteniendo la compañía la propiedad sobre los productos que integran al servicio. Se estudia también de que maneras este modelo particular de sistemas producto-servicio puede ser recibido por los consumidores de hoy en día, tan acostumbrados al modelo actual. Se quiere explorar el sistema de productos y servicio como una alternativa empresarial perdurable que solucione los retos ambientales del siglo XXI. Para poder probar la viabilidad de este hipotético modelo que cambia los patrones de interacción de las empresas con los usuarios, se plantea una idea de negocio que integre productos y servicios para satisfacer las necesidades del cliente. Se escogió un área viii caracterizada por ser de las más consumistas y acumuladoras en cuanto al volumen de compras anual de los clientes: el negocio de la ropa. Y no solo cualquier tipo de ropa, sino el de la moda rápida, un modelo que obliga a los consumidores a comprar ropa con una frecuencia aún mayor. Se hizo esto con el objetivo de probar que el modelo propuesto puede funcionar inclusive bajo los supuestos más “consumistas” que existen hoy en día.

SPARTIAN: Propuesta de mejoramiento de la gestión comercial de la empresa Wholesale and Retail Place LLC

El propósito básico de este proyecto es optimizar el proceso de ventas de la empresa internacional Wholesale and Retail Place LLC a través de una solución tecnológica. Para esto, se busca diagnosticar los procesos de gestión comercial de la empresa a través de indicadores que permitan medir su situación actual, con el propósito de implementar una aplicación móvil que se articule con la fuerza comercial que apoya el proceso de ventas, y se genere un impacto positivo en los indicadores formulados después de la aplicación de la herramienta móvil.

Mapping the spatial distribution of geomorphological processes in the Okstindan area of northern Norway, using Geomorphic Process Units as derived from remote sensing and ground survey

The delineation of Geomorphic Process Units (GPUs) aims to quantify past, current and future geomorphological processes and the sediment flux associated with them. Five GPUs have been identified for the Okstindan area of northern Norway and these were derived from the combination of Landsat satellite imagery (TM and ETM+) with stereo aerial photographs (used to construct a Digital Elevation Model) and ground survey. The Okstindan study area is sub-arctic and mountainous and is dominated by glacial and periglacial processes. The GPUs exclude the glacial system (some 37% of the study area) and hence they are focussed upon periglacial and colluvial processes. The identified GPUs are: 1. solifluction and rill erosion; 2. talus creep, slope wash and rill erosion; 3. accumulation of debris by rock and boulder fall; 4. rockwalls; and 5. stable ground with dissolved transport. The GPUs have been applied to a ‘test site’ within the study area in order to illustrate their potential for mapping the spatial distribution of geomorphological processes. The test site within the study area is a catchment which is representative of the range of geomorphological processes identified.

Student-teachers' perspectives on positive and negative social processes in schools

In recent years, the Standards for Qualified Teacher Status in England have placed new emphasis on student-teachers' ability to become integrated into the 'corporate life of the school' and to work with other professionals. Little research, however, has been carried out into how student-teachers perceive the social processes and interactions that are central to such integration during their initial teacher education school placements. This study aims to shed light on these perceptions. The data, gathered from 23 student-teachers through interviews and reflective writing, illustrate the extent to which the participants perceived such social processes as supporting or obstructing their development as teachers. Signals of inclusion, the degree of match or mismatch in students' and school colleagues' role expectations, and the social awareness of both school and student-teacher emerged as crucial factors in this respect. The student-teachers' accounts show their social interactions with school staff to be meaningful in developing their 'teacher self' and to be profoundly emotionally charged. The implications for mentor and student-teacher role preparation are discussed in this article.