Analysis and Forecast of Housing Needs in Iowa Technical Report, January 22, 2013

The research and analysis summarized in this report prepared by Gruen Gruen + Associates (“GG+A”) provides an information base about population, household, housing, and employment conditions and trends affecting the current and future housing needs of Iowans. It also provides a synthesis of how the housing needs of Iowans have changed over the past decade and how needs are likely to continue to change over the present decade (2010-2020), given forecast employment and population growth in Iowa.

Forecasting the Earth"s radiation belts and modeling solar energetic particle events: Recent results from SPACECAST

High-energy charged particles in the van Allen radiation belts and in solar energetic particle events can damage satellites on orbit leading to malfunctions and loss of satellite service. Here we describe some recent results from the SPACECAST project on modelling and forecasting the radiation belts, and modelling solar energetic particle events. We describe the SPACECAST forecasting system that uses physical models that include wave-particle interactions to forecast the electron radiation belts up to 3 h ahead. We show that the forecasts were able to reproduce the >2 MeV electron flux at GOES 13 during the moderate storm of 7-8 October 2012, and the period following a fast solar wind stream on 25-26 October 2012 to within a factor of 5 or so. At lower energies of 10- a few 100 keV we show that the electron flux at geostationary orbit depends sensitively on the high-energy tail of the source distribution near 10 RE on the nightside of the Earth, and that the source is best represented by a kappa distribution. We present a new model of whistler mode chorus determined from multiple satellite measurements which shows that the effects of wave-particle interactions beyond geostationary orbit are likely to be very significant. We also present radial diffusion coefficients calculated from satellite data at geostationary orbit which vary with Kp by over four orders of magnitude. We describe a new automated method to determine the position at the shock that is magnetically connected to the Earth for modelling solar energetic particle events and which takes into account entropy, and predict the form of the mean free path in the foreshock, and particle injection efficiency at the shock from analytical theory which can be tested in simulations.

Iowa Prison Population Forecast FY 2015-2025

CJJP takes a look at the forecast of inmates population in the state of Iowa in a ten year period. Information was produced by Division of Criminal and Juvenile Justice Planning. This report was made possible partially through funding from the U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics and its program for State Statistical Analysis Centers. Points of view or opinions expressed in this report are those of the Division of Criminal and Juvenile Justice Planning (CJJP), and do not necessarily reflect official positions of the U.S. Department of Justice.

Iowa Prison Population Forecast FY 2014-2024

CJJP takes a look at the forecast of inmates population in the state of Iowa in a ten year period. Information was produced by Division of Criminal and Juvenile Justice Planning. This report was made possible partially through funding from the U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics and its program for State Statistical Analysis Centers. Points of view or opinions expressed in this report are those of the Division of Criminal and Juvenile Justice Planning (CJJP), and do not necessarily reflect official positions of the U.S. Department of Justice.

Modelling variation of needle density of Scots pine at high latitudes

[Abstract]

Forecasting the Earth"s radiation belts and modeling solar energetic particle events: Recent results from SPACECAST

High-energy charged particles in the van Allen radiation belts and in solar energetic particle events can damage satellites on orbit leading to malfunctions and loss of satellite service. Here we describe some recent results from the SPACECAST project on modelling and forecasting the radiation belts, and modelling solar energetic particle events. We describe the SPACECAST forecasting system that uses physical models that include wave-particle interactions to forecast the electron radiation belts up to 3 h ahead. We show that the forecasts were able to reproduce the >2 MeV electron flux at GOES 13 during the moderate storm of 7-8 October 2012, and the period following a fast solar wind stream on 25-26 October 2012 to within a factor of 5 or so. At lower energies of 10- a few 100 keV we show that the electron flux at geostationary orbit depends sensitively on the high-energy tail of the source distribution near 10 RE on the nightside of the Earth, and that the source is best represented by a kappa distribution. We present a new model of whistler mode chorus determined from multiple satellite measurements which shows that the effects of wave-particle interactions beyond geostationary orbit are likely to be very significant. We also present radial diffusion coefficients calculated from satellite data at geostationary orbit which vary with Kp by over four orders of magnitude. We describe a new automated method to determine the position at the shock that is magnetically connected to the Earth for modelling solar energetic particle events and which takes into account entropy, and predict the form of the mean free path in the foreshock, and particle injection efficiency at the shock from analytical theory which can be tested in simulations.

Modelling the effect of temperature on height increment of Scots pine at high latitudes

Abstract

Modelling of crowded polymers elucidate effects of double-strand breaks in topological domains of bacterial chromosomes.

Using numerical simulations of pairs of long polymeric chains confined in microscopic cylinders, we investigate consequences of double-strand DNA breaks occurring in independent topological domains, such as these constituting bacterial chromosomes. Our simulations show a transition between segregated and mixed state upon linearization of one of the modelled topological domains. Our results explain how chromosomal organization into topological domains can fulfil two opposite conditions: (i) effectively repulse various loops from each other thus promoting chromosome separation and (ii) permit local DNA intermingling when one or more loops are broken and need to be repaired in a process that requires homology search between broken ends and their homologous sequences in closely positioned sister chromatid.

Linear prediction application for modelling the relationships between a large number of stand characteristics of Norway spruce stands

Abstract

Individual-based modelling and simulation: towards a better understanding of growth dynamics from small inocula

Postprint (published version)

Energy-based modelling and simulation of the interconnection of a back-to-back converter and a doubly-fed induction machine

This paper describes the port interconnection of two subsystems: a power electronics subsystem (a back-to-back AC/CA converter (B2B), coupled to a phase of the power grid), and an electromechanical subsystem (a doubly-fed induction machine (DFIM). The B2B is a variable structure system (VSS), due to presence of control-actuated switches: however, from a modelling simulation, as well as a control-design, point of view, it is sensible to consider modulated transformers (MTF in the bond graph language) instead of the pairs of complementary switches. The port-Hamiltonian models of both subsystems are presented and, using a power-preserving interconnection, the Hamiltonian description of the whole system is obtained; detailed bond graphs of all subsystems and the complete system are also provided. Using passivity-based controllers computed in the Hamiltonian formalism for both subsystems, the whole model is simulated; simulations are run to rest the correctness and efficiency of the Hamiltonian network modelling approach used in this work.

Quantitative modelling of transcription factor binding sites

Abstract One of the most important issues in molecular biology is to understand regulatory mechanisms that control gene expression. Gene expression is often regulated by proteins, called transcription factors which bind to short (5 to 20 base pairs),degenerate segments of DNA. Experimental efforts towards understanding the sequence specificity of transcription factors is laborious and expensive, but can be substantially accelerated with the use of computational predictions. This thesis describes the use of algorithms and resources for transcriptionfactor binding site analysis in addressing quantitative modelling, where probabilitic models are built to represent binding properties of a transcription factor and can be used to find new functional binding sites in genomes. Initially, an open-access database(HTPSELEX) was created, holding high quality binding sequences for two eukaryotic families of transcription factors namely CTF/NF1 and LEFT/TCF. The binding sequences were elucidated using a recently described experimental procedure called HTP-SELEX, that allows generation of large number (> 1000) of binding sites using mass sequencing technology. For each HTP-SELEX experiments we also provide accurate primary experimental information about the protein material used, details of the wet lab protocol, an archive of sequencing trace files, and assembled clone sequences of binding sequences. The database also offers reasonably large SELEX libraries obtained with conventional low-throughput protocols.The database is available at http://wwwisrec.isb-sib.ch/htpselex/ and and ftp://ftp.isrec.isb-sib.ch/pub/databases/htpselex. The Expectation-Maximisation(EM) algorithm is one the frequently used methods to estimate probabilistic models to represent the sequence specificity of transcription factors. We present computer simulations in order to estimate the precision of EM estimated models as a function of data set parameters(like length of initial sequences, number of initial sequences, percentage of nonbinding sequences). We observed a remarkable robustness of the EM algorithm with regard to length of training sequences and the degree of contamination. The HTPSELEX database and the benchmarked results of the EM algorithm formed part of the foundation for the subsequent project, where a statistical framework called hidden Markov model has been developed to represent sequence specificity of the transcription factors CTF/NF1 and LEF1/TCF using the HTP-SELEX experiment data. The hidden Markov model framework is capable of both predicting and classifying CTF/NF1 and LEF1/TCF binding sites. A covariance analysis of the binding sites revealed non-independent base preferences at different nucleotide positions, providing insight into the binding mechanism. We next tested the LEF1/TCF model by computing binding scores for a set of LEF1/TCF binding sequences for which relative affinities were determined experimentally using non-linear regression. The predicted and experimentally determined binding affinities were in good correlation.

Spatial predictions of land-use transitions and associated threats to biodiversity: the case of forest regrowth in mountain grasslands

Question Can we predict where forest regrowth caused by abandonment of agricultural activities is likely to occur? Can we assess how it may conflict with grassland diversity hotspots? Location Western Swiss Alps (4003210m a.s.l.). Methods We used statistical models to predict the location of land abandonment by farmers that is followed by forest regrowth in semi-natural grasslands of the Western Swiss Alps. Six modelling methods (GAM, GBM, GLM, RF, MDA, MARS) allowing binomial distribution were tested on two successive transitions occurring between three time periods. Models were calibrated using data on land-use change occurring between 1979 and 1992 as response, and environmental, accessibility and socio-economic variables as predictors, and these were validated for their capacity to predict the changes observed from 1992 to 2004. Projected probabilities of land-use change from an ensemble forecast of the six models were combined with a model of plant species richness based on a field inventory, allowing identification of critical grassland areas for the preservation of biodiversity. Results Models calibrated over the first land-use transition period predicted the second transition with reasonable accuracy. Forest regrowth occurs where cultivation costs are high and yield potential is low, i.e. on steeper slopes and at higher elevations. Overlaying species richness with land-use change predictions, we identified priority areas for the management and conservation of biodiversity at intermediate elevations. Conclusions Combining land-use change and biodiversity projections, we propose applied management measures for targeted/identified locations to limit the loss of biodiversity that could otherwise occur through loss of open habitats. The same approach could be applied to other types of land-use changes occurring in other ecosystems.

Modeling and Simulation ofReal-Time System as a Tool to Improve Capacity Management - Case Fenix

Tämän tutkimustyön kohteena on TietoEnator Oy:n kehittämän Fenix-tietojärjestelmän kapasiteettitarpeen ennustaminen. Työn tavoitteena on tutustua Fenix-järjestelmän eri osa-alueisiin, löytää tapa eritellä ja mallintaa eri osa-alueiden vaikutus järjestelmän kuormitukseen ja selvittää alustavasti mitkä parametrit vaikuttavat kyseisten osa-alueiden luomaan kuormitukseen. Osa tätä työtä on tutkia eri vaihtoehtoja simuloinnille ja selvittää eri vaihtoehtojen soveltuvuus monimutkaisten järjestelmien mallintamiseen. Kerätyn tiedon pohjaltaluodaan järjestelmäntietovaraston kuormitusta kuvaava simulaatiomalli. Hyödyntämällä mallista saatua tietoa ja tuotantojärjestelmästä mitattua tietoa mallia kehitetään vastaamaan yhä lähemmin todellisen järjestelmän toimintaa. Mallista tarkastellaan esimerkiksi simuloitua järjestelmäkuormaa ja jonojen käyttäytymistä. Tuotantojärjestelmästä mitataan eri kuormalähteiden käytösmuutoksia esimerkiksi käyttäjämäärän ja kellonajan suhteessa. Tämän työn tulosten on tarkoitus toimia pohjana myöhemmin tehtävälle jatkotutkimukselle, jossa osa-alueiden parametrisointia tarkennetaan lisää, mallin kykyä kuvata todellista järjestelmää tehostetaanja mallin laajuutta kasvatetaan.