Evaluation Of Reservoir Model Integration With Deterministic And Probabilistic Streamflow Forecasts

Due to the increase in water demand and hydropower energy, it is getting more important to operate hydraulic structures in an efficient manner while sustaining multiple demands. Especially, companies, governmental agencies, consultant offices require effective, practical integrated tools and decision support frameworks to operate reservoirs, cascades of run-of-river plants and related elements such as canals by merging hydrological and reservoir simulation/optimization models with various numerical weather predictions, radar and satellite data. The model performance is highly related with the streamflow forecast, related uncertainty and its consideration in the decision making. While deterministic weather predictions and its corresponding streamflow forecasts directly restrict the manager to single deterministic trajectories, probabilistic forecasts can be a key solution by including uncertainty in flow forecast scenarios for dam operation. The objective of this study is to compare deterministic and probabilistic streamflow forecasts on an earlier developed basin/reservoir model for short term reservoir management. The study is applied to the Yuvacık Reservoir and its upstream basin which is the main water supply of Kocaeli City located in the northwestern part of Turkey. The reservoir represents a typical example by its limited capacity, downstream channel restrictions and high snowmelt potential. Mesoscale Model 5 and Ensemble Prediction System data are used as a main input and the flow forecasts are done for 2012 year using HEC-HMS. Hydrometeorological rule-based reservoir simulation model is accomplished with HEC-ResSim and integrated with forecasts. Since EPS based hydrological model produce a large number of equal probable scenarios, it will indicate how uncertainty spreads in the future. Thus, it will provide risk ranges in terms of spillway discharges and reservoir level for operator when it is compared with deterministic approach. The framework is fully data driven, applicable, useful to the profession and the knowledge can be transferred to other similar reservoir systems.

A obtenção de efetividade em organizações em crise: a racionalidade instrumental / estrutural necessárias. Estudo de caso do DETRAN - Departamento de Trânsito do Estado do Rio de Janeiro no Projeto Licenciamento Anual de Veículos Automotores Terrestres com aferição de gases poluentes para a DRV - Diretoria de Registro de Veículos

Esta dissertação procura abordar a adoção de teorias de gerenciamento organizacional centradas na racionalidade instrumental e estrutural capazes de contribuir para promover mudanças em organizações públicas ou privadas. Como pesquisa e estudo de caso investigaremos as intervenções realizadas na gestão dos subsistemas social, técnico e diretivo da DRV - Diretoria de Registro de Veículos do Departamento Estadual de Trânsito do Estado do Rio de Janeiro - Detran/RJ no período de 1996 a 1998, particularmente, demonstrando até que ponto a adoção, na prática, de alguns preceitos das teorias organizacionais de gerenciamento clássicas, fundamentadas na centralização do poder e na descentralização operacional, puderam contribuir para a transformação de uma organização institucionalmente entrópica, gerando maior efetividade na prestação de serviços através da implementação de inovações em tecnologia de administração e informação, com reflexos em todas as demais ações da instituição e nos resultados altamente significativos para a população e para a segurança pública, com a obtenção de efetividade organizacional no tocante à qualidade dos serviços para os usuários e aumento da receita.

Optimal IV estimation of systems with stochastic regressors and var disturbances with applications to dynamic systems

This paper considers the general problem of Feasible Generalized Least Squares Instrumental Variables (FG LS IV) estimation using optimal instruments. First we summarize the sufficient conditions for the FG LS IV estimator to be asymptotic ally equivalent to an optimal G LS IV estimator. Then we specialize to stationary dynamic systems with stationary VAR errors, and use the sufficient conditions to derive new moment conditions for these models. These moment conditions produce useful IVs from the lagged endogenous variables, despite the correlation between errors and endogenous variables. This use of the information contained in the lagged endogenous variables expands the class of IV estimators under consideration and there by potentially improves both asymptotic and small-sample efficiency of the optimal IV estimator in the class. Some Monte Carlo experiments compare the new methods with those of Hatanaka [1976]. For the DG P used in the Monte Carlo experiments, asymptotic efficiency is strictly improved by the new IVs, and experimental small-sample efficiency is improved as well.

Wald tests for IV regression with weak instruments

This dissertation deals with the problem of making inference when there is weak identification in models of instrumental variables regression. More specifically we are interested in one-sided hypothesis testing for the coefficient of the endogenous variable when the instruments are weak. The focus is on the conditional tests based on likelihood ratio, score and Wald statistics. Theoretical and numerical work shows that the conditional t-test based on the two-stage least square (2SLS) estimator performs well even when instruments are weakly correlated with the endogenous variable. The conditional approach correct uniformly its size and when the population F-statistic is as small as two, its power is near the power envelopes for similar and non-similar tests. This finding is surprising considering the bad performance of the two-sided conditional t-tests found in Andrews, Moreira and Stock (2007). Given this counter intuitive result, we propose novel two-sided t-tests which are approximately unbiased and can perform as well as the conditional likelihood ratio (CLR) test of Moreira (2003).

Asymptotic efficiency in an instrumental variable model

Esta dissertação se propõe ao estudo de inferência usando estimação por método generalizado dos momentos (GMM) baseado no uso de instrumentos. A motivação para o estudo está no fato de que sob identificação fraca dos parâmetros, a inferência tradicional pode levar a resultados enganosos. Dessa forma, é feita uma revisão dos mais usuais testes para superar tal problema e uma apresentação dos arcabouços propostos por Moreira (2002) e Moreira & Moreira (2013), e Kleibergen (2005). Com isso, o trabalho concilia as estatísticas utilizadas por eles para realizar inferência e reescreve o teste score proposto em Kleibergen (2005) utilizando as estatísticas de Moreira & Moreira (2013), e é obtido usando a teoria assintótica em Newey & McFadden (1984) a estatística do teste score ótimo. Além disso, mostra-se a equivalência entre a abordagem por GMM e a que usa sistema de equações e verossimilhança para abordar o problema de identificação fraca.

Optimisation of stir bar sorptive extraction and liquid desorption combined with large volume injection-gas chromatography–quadrupole mass spectrometry for the determination of volatile compounds in wines

Stir bar sorptive extraction and liquid desorption followed by large volume injection coupled to gas chromatography–quadrupole mass spectrometry (SBSE–LD/LVI-GC–qMS) had been applied for the determination of volatiles in wines. The methodology was optimised in terms of extraction time and influence of ethanol in the matrix; LD conditions, and instrumental settings. The optimisation was carried out by using 10 standards representative of the main chemical families of wine, i.e. guaiazulene, E,E-farnesol, β-ionone, geranylacetone, ethyl decanoate, β-citronellol, 2-phenylethanol, linalool, hexyl acetate and hexanol. The methodology shows good linearity over the concentration range tested, with correlation coefficients higher than 0.9821, a good reproducibility was attained (8.9–17.8%), and low detection limits were achieved for nine volatile compounds (0.05–9.09 μg L−1), with the exception of 2-phenylethanol due to low recovery by SBSE. The analytical ability of the SBSE–LD/LVI-GC–qMS methodology was tested in real matrices, such as sparkling and table wines using analytical curves prepared by using the 10 standards where each one was applied to quantify the structurally related compounds. This methodology allowed, in a single run, the quantification of 67 wine volatiles at levels lower than their respective olfactory thresholds. The proposed methodology demonstrated to be easy to work-up, reliable, sensitive and with low sample requirement to monitor the volatile fraction of wine.

Reconceitualização das categorias de skemp de compreensão relacional e compreensão instrumental como critérios globais

The thesis presents a systematic description about the meaning, as Skemp, relational understanding and understanding instrumental, in the context of mathematics learning, being that we had as a guide his understanding of the schema. Especially, we analyze some academic productions, in the area of Mathematics Education, who used the categories of understanding relational and instrumental understanding how evaluative instrument and we see that in most cases the analysis is punctual. Being so, whereas the inherent understanding relational schema has a network of connected ideas and non-insulated, we investigated if the global analysis, where it is the understanding of the diversity of contributory concepts for formation of the concept to be learned, is more appropriate than the punctual, where does the understanding of concepts so isolated. For this, we apply a teaching module, having as main content the Quaternos Pythagoreans using History of Mathematics and the work of Bahier (1916). With the data we obtained the teaching module to use the global analysis and the punctual analysis, using research methodology the Case Study, and consequently we conduct our inferences about the levels of understanding of the subject which has made it possible for us to investigate the ownership of global analysis at the expense of punctual analysis. On the opportunity, we prove the thesis that we espouse in the course of the study and, in addition, we highlight as a contribution of our research evidence of need for a teaching of mathematics that entices the relational understanding and that evaluation should be global, being necessary to consider the notion of schema and therefore know the schematic diagram of the concept that will be evaluated

A interpretação dos sintagmas nominais com adjetivos atributivos por alunos de inglês instrumental

This present work has as objective to analyze the interpretation of the syntactic and semantic meaning performed by third graders in the nominal groups (NGs) with attributive adjectives in the English language in a text of the final exam in the ESP (English for Specific Purposes) discipline. The corpus is made up of 30 exams of two classes from a third grade institution of the biomedical area, corresponding to the basic and advanced levels of the second term in 2006. The text has 24 NGs of different lexical content, a total of 27 NGs in the whole text summing up to 810 analyzed occurrences. The analysis is carried out at the morphologic, syntactic and semantic levels using as theoretical background the traditional and functional grammars (QUIRK et al, 1985; CELSE-MURCIA et al, 1998; TUCKER, 1998), in their semantic aspects, the Semantics (FRAWLEY, 1992) and the Cognitive Linguistics (TAYLOR, 2002). We concluded that the main difficulties were due to the lack of vocabulary and to the use of mother tongue strategies instead of using the top-down strategies for reading a text in English to compensate this gap. We also observed that even when the vocabulary was known, there were difficulties in establishing the semantic and syntactic relations between modifier and noun head. We suggested improvements for the teaching of reading English texts at the third grade grounded in the obtained results such as a more comprehensive study of the several different morphologic and syntactic structures of the NGs with premodifiers and their semantic consequences, an approach of the morphologic, syntactic and semantic aspects of the NGs and the use of both top-down and bottom-up strategies when reading a NG in the English language

Vocal Polyps: Clinical, Morphological, and Immunohistochemical Aspects

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Auditory evaluation in patients with type 1 diabetes

Objectives: We performed a prospective clinical study of the cochleovestibular symptoms and the risk cofactors and characteristics of hearing loss in patients with type 1 diabetes.Methods: Group I consisted of 40 patients with type I diabetes, and group 2 consisted of 20 control subjects without diabetes. All participants answered a questionnaire, and their medical records were reviewed. They also were submitted to otorhinolaryngological examinations and to auditory tests (pure tone audiometry and acoustic immitance and auditory brain stem response [ABR] tests).Results: Dyslipidemia, hypertension, retinopathy, and diabetic neuropathy were not frequent in the patients of group 1, but incipient nephropathy was present in 47.5% of them. The most frequent cochleovestibular symptoms were tinnitus and hearing loss. Sensorineural hearing loss was found in 4 patients of group I and was predominantly bilateral, symmetric, and affecting the high frequencies, coexisting with normal vocal discrimination. These patients had a longer time from diabetes diagnosis and had poor glycemia control. A delay of ABR interpeak latency I-III was observed in 11.25% of the group I ears. All patients of group 2 presented normal audiograms and ABR tests.Conclusions: In group 1, the most frequent cochleovestibular symptoms were tinnitus and hearing loss. The sensorineural hearing loss was mild, symmetric, and predominantly high-frequency. A delay of ABR interpeak latencies was detected in the patients of group I who had normal audiometric thresholds.

Vocal Cysts: Clinical, Endoscopic, and Surgical Aspects

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Mucosal Bridge of the Vocal Fold: Difficulties in the Diagnosis and Treatment

Mucosal bridges are rare laryngeal lesions probably of genetic origin. They may cause dysphonia of varying degrees, especially when associated with other laryngeal lesions such as vocal sulci and cysts. Reports on mucosal bridges are rare, and the better treatment is inconclusive.Aim. To report the authors' experience in 14 cases of mucosal bridge showing details on endoscopic examinations and treatment.Study Design. Retrospective study.Methods. We reviewed the medical records of 14 patients with a diagnosis of mucosal bridge confirmed by video-laryngostroboscopy and direct laryngoscopy who attended the Outpatient Clinic of Voice Disorders of the Discipline of Otorhinolaryngology, Botucatu Medical School, São Paulo State University, São Paulo. Data collected included information on gender, age, symptoms, time of onset, history of intubation, smoking status, alcohol intake, associated laryngeal lesions, treatment, and GRBAS (grade of hoarseness, roughness, breathiness, asthenia, and stress) scale ratings.Results. of 14 patients, 10 were females and four were males. There was a prevalence of adults (n = 12), with only two of the patients being younger than 13 years (10 and 13 years). Mucosal bridges showed no correlations with smoking, alcohol intake, or gastroesophageal and sinonasal symptoms. Voice abuse was reported in 50% of the cases that consisted of patients who had high-voice demand occupations. In seven cases, mucosal bridges were associated with other laryngeal lesions, particularly vocal cysts and sulci. All patients who underwent surgery and phonotherapy showed improved vocal quality.Conclusions. We documented 14 patients with dysphonia caused by mucosal bridge. Promising results were obtained with surgery.

Meat quality of swine supplemented with ractopamine under commercial conditions in Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Laryngeal and voice disorders in patients with gastroesophageal symptoms. Correlation with pH-monitoring

OBJETIVO: Investigar as alterações laríngeas e vocais em pacientes com sintomas de refluxo gastroesofágico e correlacioná-las com o exame de phmetria. MÉTODOS: Estudo prospectivo que incluiu os pacientes atendidos nos ambulatórios de Distúrbios da Voz da Faculdade de Medicina de Botucatu no período de cinco anos com sintomas vocais e gastroesofágicos. Os pacientes foram submetidos à videolaringoscopia, às análises vocais perceptivo-auditivas, a analise vocal acústica computadorizada e ao exame de pHmetria de dois canais com monitorização durante 24 horas. RESULTADOS: Foram incluídos 57 pacientes (entre 21 a 65 anos; 45 mulheres e 12 homens). Desses, 18 apresentavam pHmetria normal (31,6%) e 39 alterada (68,4%). As videolaringoscopias registraram diversas lesões laríngeas tanto nos pacientes com pHmetria normal como alterada, sendo mais relevantes neste último grupo, destacando-se a paquidermia posterior. As avaliações vocais perceptivo-auditivas identificaram alterações vocais de diversas intensidades em ambos os grupos, mais importantes nos pacientes com pHmetria alterada. Todos os parâmetros acústicos, exceto Fo, mostraram-se alterados em ambos os grupos, quando comparados aos controles. CONCLUSÕES: Alterações vocais perceptivas e acústicas, e lesões laríngeas foram registradas tanto nos pacientes com phmetria normal como alterada, sinalizando para a importância da historia clínica e dos achados videolaringoscópicos no diagnóstico das laringites ácidas.

Energy substrate utilization during nightly vocal activity in three species of Scinax (Anura/Hylidae)

Anuran amphibians exhibit different patterns of energy substrate utilization that correlate with the intensity of vocal and locomotor activities. Given the remarkable differences among species in breeding and feeding strategies, and the different ways energy is used in the whole animal, the suggested correlations between calling and locomotor behavior and the level of energy substrates in the muscles responsible for such activities are more complex than previously reported. We explored the relationships between calling and locomotor behavior and energy supply to trunk and hindlimb muscles, respectively, within the ecologically diverse tree-frog genus Scinax. Specifically, we measured the relative amount of carbohydrates and lipids in these two groups of muscles, and in the liver of three species of Scinax that differ in vocal and locomotor performance, and compared our results with those of two other species for which comparable data are available. We also compared the contents of lipids and carbohydrates of conspecific males collected at the beginning and after 4 h of calling activity. The stomach content to potential feeding opportunities across species was also assessed in both groups of males. Scinax hiemalis and S. rizibilis exhibit comparatively low and episodic calling during long periods of activity whereas S. crospedospilus calls at higher rates over shorter periods. Male S. hiemalis had highest levels of trunk muscle glycogen followed by those of S. rizilbilis and S. crospedospilus, respectively. There was no correlation between total lipid content in trunk muscle and calling rate among different species, suggesting that other metabolic aspects may be responsible for the energetic support for vocal activity. The levels of lipids and carbohydrates in trunk and hindlimb muscles and liver of males collected at the beginning and 4 h into the calling period were similar across species, so the extent of energetic reserves does not appear to constrain vocal or locomotor activity. Finally, we found exceptionally high levels of carbohydrates and lipids in the liver of S. rizibilis, a trait perhaps related to a long and demanding breeding period.