A simple randomized algorithm for consistent sequential prediction of ergodic time series

We present a simple randomized procedure for the prediction of a binary sequence. The algorithm uses ideas from recent developments of the theory of the prediction of individual sequences. We show that if thesequence is a realization of a stationary and ergodic random process then the average number of mistakes converges, almost surely, to that of the optimum, given by the Bayes predictor.

A zero-delay sequential scheme for lossy coding of individual sequences

We consider adaptive sequential lossy coding of bounded individual sequences when the performance is measured by the sequentially accumulated mean squared distortion. Theencoder and the decoder are connected via a noiseless channel of capacity $R$ and both are assumed to have zero delay. No probabilistic assumptions are made on how the sequence to be encoded is generated. For any bounded sequence of length $n$, the distortion redundancy is defined as the normalized cumulative distortion of the sequential scheme minus the normalized cumulative distortion of the best scalarquantizer of rate $R$ which is matched to this particular sequence. We demonstrate the existence of a zero-delay sequential scheme which uses common randomization in the encoder and the decoder such that the normalized maximum distortion redundancy converges to zero at a rate $n^{-1/5}\log n$ as the length of the encoded sequence $n$ increases without bound.

Traitements des facteurs de risque cardiovasculaire et dépistage de la maladie coronarienne dans le diabète de type 2 [Treatments for cardiovascular risk factors and screening for coronary artery disease in type 2 diabetes mellitus]

The recent ACCORD and DIAD studies revealed results which could modify treatments and the screening of diabetes vascular complications. Indeed, ACCORD shows no benefit on the prevention of diabetes vascular complications by aggressive treatment of hypertension or the combined treatment of the dyslipidemia. The intensive treatment of the blood glucose, if associated with severe hypoglycemias, increases mortality. DIAD revealed 20% of silent myocardial ischaemia in diabetic patients but no beneficial effect on the cardiovascular mortality. A careful reading of these studies in the light of long term studies such as UKPDS and STENO reveals that these negative results are generated by a too short follow-up and too aggressive objectives. The long term studies reveal that more realistic objectives remain beneficial.

Enseignement de recommandations pour la pratique: la prévention et le dépistage [Teaching practice recommendations: prevention and screening].

The aim of this article is to provide guidance to family doctors on how to tutor students about effective screening and primary prevention. Family doctors know their patients and adapt national and international guidelines to their specific context, risk profile, sex and age as well as to the prevalence of the disorders under consideration. Three cases are presented to illustrate guideline use according to the level of evidence (for a 19-year-old man, a 60-year-old woman, and an 80-year-old man). A particular strength of family medicine is that doctors see their patients over the years. Thus they can progressively go through the various prevention strategies, screening, counselling and immunisation, accompanying their patients with precious advice for their health throughout their lifetime.

Bargaining efficiency and screening: An experimental investigation

This paper investigates whether information about fairness types canbe useful in lowering dispute costs and enhancing bargaining efficiency.An experiment was conducted in which subjects were first screened usinga dictator game, with the allocations chosen used to separate participantsinto two types. Mutually anonymous pairs of subjects then bargained, witha dispute cost structure imposed. Sorting with identification reducesdispute costs; there are also significant differences in bargainingefficiency across pairing types. Information about types is crucial forthese differences and also strongly affects the relative bargainingsuccess of the two types and the hypothetical optimal bargaining strategy.

Isolation of Bacillus thuringiensis from the state of Amazonas, in Brazil, and screening against Aedes aegypti (Diptera, Culicidae)

We investigated the use of Bacillus thuringiensis isolated in the state of Amazonas, in Brazil, for the biological control of the dengue vector Aedes aegypti. From 25 soil samples collected in nine municipalities, 484 bacterial colonies were obtained, 57 (11.78%) of which were identified as B. thuringiensis. Six isolates, IBt-03, IBt-06, IBt-07, IBt-28, IBt-30, and BtAM-27 showed insecticidal activity, and only BtAM-27 presents the five genes investigated cry4Aa, cry4Ba, cry10Aa, cry11Aa, and cry11Ba. The IBt-07 and IBt- 28, with lower LC50 values, showed equal toxicity compared to the standards. The isolates of B. thuringiensisfrom Amazonas constitute potential new means of biological control for A. aegypti, because of their larvicidal activity and the possibility that they may also contain new combinations of toxins.

Improved statistical evaluation of group differences in connectomes by screening-filtering strategy with application to study maturation of brain connections between childhood and adolescence.

Detecting local differences between groups of connectomes is a great challenge in neuroimaging, because the large number of tests that have to be performed and the impact on multiplicity correction. Any available information should be exploited to increase the power of detecting true between-group effects. We present an adaptive strategy that exploits the data structure and the prior information concerning positive dependence between nodes and connections, without relying on strong assumptions. As a first step, we decompose the brain network, i.e., the connectome, into subnetworks and we apply a screening at the subnetwork level. The subnetworks are defined either according to prior knowledge or by applying a data driven algorithm. Given the results of the screening step, a filtering is performed to seek real differences at the node/connection level. The proposed strategy could be used to strongly control either the family-wise error rate or the false discovery rate. We show by means of different simulations the benefit of the proposed strategy, and we present a real application of comparing connectomes of preschool children and adolescents.

Variation in performance across Swiss mammography screening programmes: the influence of reading strategy and experience.

[Abstract] Reading volume and mammography screening performance appear positively correlated. Performance was compared across organised Swiss screening programmes, which target relatively small populations. Except for accreditation of 2nd readers radiologists (restrictive vs non-restrictive strategy), Swiss programmes have similar screening regimen/procedures and duration, which maximises comparability. Variation in performance was explored in order to improve mammography practice and optimise screening performance. Indicators of quality and effectiveness were evaluated for about 200,000 screens performed over 4 screening rounds in the 3 longest-standing Swiss cantonal programmes (of Vaud, Geneva and Valais). Interval cancers were identified by linkage with cancer registries records. Most European standards of performance were met with a favourable cancer stage shift. Several performance indicators showed substantial variation across programmes. In subsequent rounds, compared with programmes (Vaud and Geneva) which accredited few 2nd readers to increase their individual reading volume, proportions of in situ lesions and of small cancers (? 1cm) were one third lower and halved, respectively, and the proportion of advanced lesions (stage II+) nearly 50% higher in the programme without a restrictive selection strategy. Discrepancy in second-year proportional incidence of interval cancers appears to be multicausal. Differences in performance could partly be explained by a selective strategy for 2nd readers and a prior experience in service screening, but not by the levels of opportunistic screening and programme attendance. This study provides clues for enhancing mammography screening performance in low-volume Swiss programmes.

Is atherosclerosis screening by noninvasive imaging effective in cardiovascular prevention? a systematic review

Texte intégral: http://www.springerlink.com/content/3q68180337551r47/fulltext.pdf

Phase 3 randomized trial on larynx preservation comparing sequential vs alternating chemotherapy and radiotherapy.

BACKGROUND: Both induction chemotherapy followed by irradiation and concurrent chemotherapy and radiotherapy have been reported as valuable alternatives to total laryngectomy in patients with advanced larynx or hypopharynx cancer. We report results of the randomized phase 3 trial 24954 from the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer. METHODS: Patients with resectable advanced squamous cell carcinoma of the larynx (tumor stage T3-T4) or hypopharynx (T2-T4), with regional lymph nodes in the neck staged as N0-N2 and with no metastasis, were randomly assigned to treatment in the sequential (or control) or the alternating (or experimental) arm. In the sequential arm, patients with a 50% or more reduction in primary tumor size after two cycles of cisplatin and 5-fluorouracil received another two cycles, followed by radiotherapy (70 Gy total). In the alternating arm, a total of four cycles of cisplatin and 5-fluorouracil (in weeks 1, 4, 7, and 10) were alternated with radiotherapy with 20 Gy during the three 2-week intervals between chemotherapy cycles (60 Gy total). All nonresponders underwent salvage surgery and postoperative radiotherapy. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to obtain time-to-event data. RESULTS: The 450 patients were randomly assigned to treatment (224 to the sequential arm and 226 to the alternating arm). Median follow-up was 6.5 years. Survival with a functional larynx was similar in sequential and alternating arms (hazard ratio of death and/or event = 0.85, 95% confidence interval = 0.68 to 1.06), as were median overall survival (4.4 and 5.1 years, respectively) and median progression-free interval (3.0 and 3.1 years, respectively). Grade 3 or 4 mucositis occurred in 64 (32%) of the 200 patients in the sequential arm who received radiotherapy and in 47 (21%) of the 220 patients in the alternating arm. Late severe edema and/or fibrosis was observed in 32 (16%) patients in the sequential arm and in 25 (11%) in the alternating arm. CONCLUSIONS: Larynx preservation, progression-free interval, and overall survival were similar in both arms, as were acute and late toxic effects.