Convergence analysis of sampling-based decomposition methods for risk-averse multistage stochastic convex programs

We consider a class of sampling-based decomposition methods to solve risk-averse multistage stochastic convex programs. We prove a formula for the computation of the cuts necessary to build the outer linearizations of the recourse functions. This formula can be used to obtain an efficient implementation of Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming applied to convex nonlinear problems. We prove the almost sure convergence of these decomposition methods when the relatively complete recourse assumption holds. We also prove the almost sure convergence of these algorithms when applied to risk-averse multistage stochastic linear programs that do not satisfy the relatively complete recourse assumption. The analysis is first done assuming the underlying stochastic process is interstage independent and discrete, with a finite set of possible realizations at each stage. We then indicate two ways of extending the methods and convergence analysis to the case when the process is interstage dependent.

A Meta-Analysis of Predation Risk Effects on Pollinator Behaviour

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Analysis of the risk factors related to the immune humoral anti-Anaplasma marginale in dairy cattle

Anaplasma marginale is the most prevalent pathogen of cattle transmitted by ticks in the world. This study aimed to evaluate the risk factors for anaplasmosis in dairy cattle. Fifty dairy cattle from the herd of Empresa de Pesquisa Agropecuaria do Estado do Rio de Janeiro were selected by proportional stratified sampling. The risk factors evaluated were: physiological state, race pattern, number of lactations, milk production, infestation by Rhipicephalus microplus and animal density. Antibody activity against A. marginale was determined using the indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The percentual values of seroprevalence for A. marginale were submitted to X2 test, and the level of minimum significance, to keep a factor in the model of logistic regression, was fixated in 5%. It was observed that pregnancy and lactation influenced significantly (p<0.05) in the seropositivity of the animals. Bos indicus animals had 5.21 times more chances of being seropositive than B. taurus animals. Primiparous female had 88% more chances of being seropositive than pluriparous female. Animals with high milk production were 63% more positive than low production animals. When infested by ticks the animals had 39% more chance of being seropositive to A. marginale. Bos indicus animals presented 5.21 times more chance of being seropositive than B. taurus animals. Primiparous females presented 88% more chance of being seropositive than the pluriparous ones. High milk production animals were 63% more positive than the low production ones. When infested by ticks the animals had 39% more chance of being seropositive to A. marginale. High density grazing provided for the animals 3.2 times more chances of being seropositive than low density ones. The herd was classified as erratic to A. marginale, even being placed in a steady enzootic area.

Prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors among Latin American adolescents: a multilevel analysis

High blood pressure (HBP) and obesity is a well-established major risk factor for stroke and coronary heart disease. However, the literatures are scarce about these informations in adolescents from low-and-middle income countries. This school-based survey was carried out among students from Maringá (Brazil) and Buenos Aires (Argentina) selected random sampling. We studied 991 Brazilian adolescents (54.5% girls) in the age range of 14-18 years. In Argentina, we studied 933 adolescents (45.9% female) in the age range of 11-17 years. The outcomes of this study are general obesity, abdominal obesity and HBP. The associated factors analysed were gender, age and health behaviours. The prevalence of obesity was 5.8% in Brazil and 2.8% in Argentina, the prevalence of abdominal obesity was 32.7% in Brazil and 11.1% in Argentina, the prevalence of HBP was 14.9% in Brazil and 13.5% in Argentina. The multilevel analysis showed that older adolescents (>14 years old) have a little likelihood of being overweight, whereas male adolescents are more likely to be obese and have HBP. The abdominal obesity in both indicators were not associated with the independent variables. The prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors is high in Latin American adolescents independent of each country, and was associated with male gender.Journal of Human Hypertension advance online publication, 15 August 2013; doi:10.1038/jhh.2013.74.

Analysis of the risk factors relating to cows' resistance to Rhipicephalus microplus ticks during the peripartum

This study aimed to evaluate season, breed, number of lactations and milk production as risk factors relating to Rhipicephalus microplus infestation in dairy cows during the peripartum. Eighty-four animals were randomly selected through proportional stratified sampling. All engorged and partially engorged female R. microplus specimens measuring 4.5-8.0 mm were counted during the 5 weeks before calving, calving week and 5 weeks after calving. The peripartum had a significant effect [calving (p < 0.05; prevalence ratio (PR)= 3.12) and post calving (p < 0.05; PR = 2.02)] on R. microplus infestation. Although the average tick count was higher during the rainy season than during the dry season, there was no significant difference (p = 0.055; PR = 0.63). The average R. microplus count was significantly higher (p < 0.05; PR = 2.10) in Bos taurus animals, followed by F1 (p < 0.05; PR = 1.64) and Girolando (p < 0.05; PR = 1.39). The average R. microplus count was significantly higher (p < 0.05; PR = 0.97) in first-lactation animals, followed by those at the second, third and, fourth or subsequent lactation. Milk production showed a negative correlation with R. microplus count, such that high-production animals were significantly (p = 0.003; PR = 2.04) more vulnerable to infestation than were low-production animals. First-lactation and high-production B. taurus animals had greatest vulnerability to R. microplus infestation over the peripartum period, and constituted the at-risk group in the dairy herd.u

Application of discriminant analysis-based model for prediction of risk of low back disorders due to workplace design in industrial jobs

The occupational exposure limits of different risk factors for development of low back disorders (LBDs) have not yet been established. One of the main problems in setting such guidelines is the limited understanding of how different risk factors for LBDs interact in causing injury, since the nature and mechanism of these disorders are relatively unknown phenomena. Industrial ergonomists' role becomes further complicated because the potential risk factors that may contribute towards the onset of LBDs interact in a complex manner, which makes it difficult to discriminate in detail among the jobs that place workers at high or low risk of LBDs. The purpose of this paper was to develop a comparative study between predictions based on the neural network-based model proposed by Zurada, Karwowski & Marras (1997) and a linear discriminant analysis model, for making predictions about industrial jobs according to their potential risk of low back disorders due to workplace design. The results obtained through applying the discriminant analysis-based model proved that it is as effective as the neural network-based model. Moreover, the discriminant analysis-based model proved to be more advantageous regarding cost and time savings for future data gathering.

Vitamin or mineral supplement intake and the risk of head and neck cancer: pooled analysis in the INHANCE consortium

To investigate the potential role of vitamin or mineral supplementation on the risk of head and neck cancer (HNC), we analyzed individual-level pooled data from 12 casecontrol studies (7,002 HNC cases and 8,383 controls) participating in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology consortium. There were a total of 2,028 oral cavity cancer, 2,465 pharyngeal cancer, 874 unspecified oral/pharynx cancer, 1,329 laryngeal cancer and 306 overlapping HNC cases. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for self reported ever use of any vitamins, multivitamins, vitamin A, vitamin C, vitamin E, and calcium, beta-carotene, iron, selenium and zinc supplements were assessed. We further examined frequency, duration and cumulative exposure of each vitamin or mineral when possible and stratified by smoking and drinking status. All ORs were adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, study center, education level, pack-years of smoking, frequency of alcohol drinking and fruit/vegetable intake. A decreased risk of HNC was observed with ever use of vitamin C (OR = 0.76, 95% CI = 0.590.96) and with ever use of calcium supplement (OR = 0.64, 95% CI = 0.420.97). The inverse association with HNC risk was also observed for 10 or more years of vitamin C use (OR = 0.72, 95% CI = 0.540.97) and more than 365 tablets of cumulative calcium intake (OR = 0.36, 95% CI = 0.160.83), but linear trends were not observed for the frequency or duration of any supplement intake. We did not observe any strong associations between vitamin or mineral supplement intake and the risk of HNC.

Risk Factor Analysis of Late Survival After Heart Transplantation According to Donor Profile: A Multi-Institutional Retrospective Study of 512 Transplants

Introduction. Patients with terminal heart failure have increased more than the available organs leading to a high mortality rate on the waiting list. Use of Marginal and expanded criteria donors has increased due to the heart shortage. Objective. We analyzed all heart transplantations (HTx) in Sao Paulo state over 8 years for donor profile and recipient risk factors. Method. This multi-institutional review collected HTx data from all institutions in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. From 2002 to 2008 (6 years), only 512 (28.8%) of 1777 available heart donors were accepted for transplantation. All medical records were analyzed retrospectively; none of the used donors was excluded, even those considered to be nonstandard. Results. The hospital mortality rate was 27.9% (n = 143) and the average follow-up time was 29.4 +/- 28.4 months. The survival rate was 55.5% (n = 285) at 6 years after HTx. Univariate analysis showed the following factors to impact survival: age (P = .0004), arterial hypertension (P = .4620), norepinephrine (P = .0450), cardiac arrest (P = .8500), diabetes mellitus (P = .5120), infection (P = .1470), CKMB (creatine kinase MB) (P = .8694), creatinine (P = .7225), and Na+ (P = .3273). On multivariate analysis, only age showed significance; logistic regression showed a significant cut-off at 40 years: organs from donors older than 40 years showed a lower late survival rates (P = .0032). Conclusions. Donor age older than 40 years represents an important risk factor for survival after HTx. Neither donor gender nor norepinephrine use negatively affected early survival.

Work Precariousness and Risk of Accidents in Civil Construction: A study based on the Collective Work Analysis

This paper aims to describe the construction workers' activities, as well as their perceptions about risks and workload. The study, based on the Collective Work Analysis, is part of a broader public policies project for the improvement of SIVAT (Surveillance System of Work Accidents) - in the city of Piracicaba (Southeastern Brazil). Civil construction was prioritized given the epidemiological magnitude of the occurrence of work accidents and the limited efficacy of traditional surveillance initiatives in this sector due to informal employment practices, outsourcing, high staff turnover, etc. The workers have a high level of awareness concerning the risk of accidents, but they believe that the main preventive measures hinder or even make it impossible for them to carry out the tasks. Our findings question the efficacy of traditional training for adherence to safety practices, thus highlighting the need for a transformative pedagogy for preventive practices and the health promotion of workers.

Diet and the risk of head and neck cancer: a pooled analysis in the INHANCE consortium

We investigated the association between diet and head and neck cancer (HNC) risk using data from the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology (INHANCE) consortium. The INHANCE pooled data included 22 case-control studies with 14,520 cases and 22,737 controls. Center-specific quartiles among the controls were used for food groups, and frequencies per week were used for single food items. A dietary pattern score combining high fruit and vegetable intake and low red meat intake was created. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the dietary items on the risk of HNC were estimated with a two-stage random-effects logistic regression model. An inverse association was observed for higher-frequency intake of fruit (4th vs. 1st quartile OR = 0.52, 95% CI = 0.43-0.62, p (trend) < 0.01) and vegetables (OR = 0.66, 95% CI = 0.49-0.90, p (trend) = 0.01). Intake of red meat (OR = 1.40, 95% CI = 1.13-1.74, p (trend) = 0.13) and processed meat (OR = 1.37, 95% CI = 1.14-1.65, p (trend) < 0.01) was positively associated with HNC risk. Higher dietary pattern scores, reflecting high fruit/vegetable and low red meat intake, were associated with reduced HNC risk (per score increment OR = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.84-0.97).

Risk factors for hepatitis C virus infection in Inland Brazil: An analysis of pooled epidemiological sectional studies

In order to assess the contribution of different parenteral routes as risk exposure to the hepatitis C virus (HCV), samples from nine surveys or cross-sectional studies conducted in two Brazilian inland regions were pooled, including a total of 3,910 subjects. Heterogeneity among the study results for different risk factors was tested and the results were shown to be homogeneous. Anti-HCV antibodies were observed in 241 individuals, of which 146 (3.7%, 95% CI?=?3.24.4) had HCV exposure confirmed by immunoblot analysis or PCR test. After adjustment for relevant variables, a correlation between confirmed HCV exposure and injection drug use, tattooing, and advance age was observed. In a second logistic model that included exposures not searched in all nine studies, a smaller sample was analyzed, revealing an independent HCV association with past history of surgery and males who have sex with other males, in addition to repeated injection drug use. Overall, these analyses corroborate the finding that injection drug use is the main risk factor for HCV exposure and spread, in addition to other parenteral routes. J. Med. Virol. 84:756762, 2012. (C) 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Why Are Women With Cervical Cancer Not Being Diagnosed in Preinvasive Phase? An Analysis of Risk Factors Using a Hierarchical Model

Objective: To assess the risk factors for delayed diagnosis of uterine cervical lesions. Materials and Methods: This is a case-control study that recruited 178 women at 2 Brazilian hospitals. The cases (n = 74) were composed of women with a late diagnosis of a lesion in the uterine cervix (invasive carcinoma in any stage). The controls (n = 104) were composed of women with cervical lesions diagnosed early on (low-or high-grade intraepithelial lesions). The analysis was performed by means of logistic regression model using a hierarchical model. The socioeconomic and demographic variables were included at level I (distal). Level II (intermediate) included the personal and family antecedents and knowledge about the Papanicolaou test and human papillomavirus. Level III (proximal) encompassed the variables relating to individuals' care for their own health, gynecologic symptoms, and variables relating to access to the health care system. Results: The risk factors for late diagnosis of uterine cervical lesions were age older than 40 years (odds ratio [OR] = 10.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.3-48.4), not knowing the difference between the Papanicolaou test and gynecological pelvic examinations (OR, = 2.5; 95% CI, 1.3-4.9), not thinking that the Papanicolaou test was important (odds ratio [OR], 4.2; 95% CI, 1.3-13.4), and abnormal vaginal bleeding (OR, 15.0; 95% CI, 6.5-35.0). Previous treatment for sexually transmissible disease was a protective factor (OR, 0.3; 95% CI, 0.1-0.8) for delayed diagnosis. Conclusions: Deficiencies in cervical cancer prevention programs in developing countries are not simply a matter of better provision and coverage of Papanicolaou tests. The misconception about the Papanicolaou test is a serious educational problem, as demonstrated by the present study.

Agrofood chain analysis: production, commercialisation and consumption of healthy food for population at risk of poverty in Italy

Italy registers a fast increase of low income population. Academics and policy makers consider income inequalities as a key determinant for low or inadequate healthy food consumption. Thus the objective is to understand how to overcome the agrofood chain barriers towards healthy food production, commercialisation and consumption for population at risk of poverty (ROP) in Italy. The study adopts a market oriented food chain approach, focusing the research ambit on ROP consumers, processing industries and retailers. The empirical investigation adopts a qualitative methodology with an explorative approach. The actors are investigated through 4 focus groups for consumers and carrying out 27 face to face semi-structured interviews for industries and retailers’ representatives. The results achieved provide the perceptions of each actor integrated into an overall chain approach. The analysis shows that all agrofood actors lack of an adequate level of knowledge towards healthy food definition. Food industries and retailers also show poor awareness about ROP consumers’ segment. In addition they perceive that the high costs for producing healthy food conflict with the low economic performances expected from ROP consumers’ segment. These aspects induce a scarce interest in investing on commercialisation strategies for healthy food for ROP consumers. Further ROP consumers show other notable barriers to adopt healthy diets caused, among others, by a personal strong negative attitude and lack of motivation. The personal barriers are also negatively influenced by several external socio-economic factors. The solutions to overcome the barriers shall rely on the improvement of the agrofood chain internal relations to identify successful strategies for increasing interest on low cost healthy food. In particular the focus should be on improved collaboration on innovation adoption and marketing strategies, considering ROP consumers’ preferences and needs. An external political intervention is instead necessary to fill the knowledge and regulations’ gaps on healthy food issues.

Body mass index, hormone replacement therapy, and endometrial cancer risk: a meta-analysis

Background: Body mass index (BMI) is a risk factor for endometrial cancer. We quantified the risk and investigated whether the association differed by use of hormone replacement therapy (HRT), menopausal status, and histologic type. Methods: We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE (1966 to December 2009) to identify prospective studies of BMI and incident endometrial cancer. We did random-effects meta-analyses, meta-regressions, and generalized least square regressions for trend estimations assuming linear, and piecewise linear, relationships. Results: Twenty-four studies (17,710 cases) were analyzed; 9 studies contributed to analyses by HRT, menopausal status, or histologic type, all published since 2003. In the linear model, the overall risk ratio (RR) per 5 kg/m2 increase in BMI was 1.60 (95% CI, 1.52–1.68), P < 0.0001. In the piecewise model, RRs compared with a normal BMI were 1.22 (1.19–1.24), 2.09 (1.94–2.26), 4.36 (3.75–5.10), and 9.11 (7.26–11.51) for BMIs of 27, 32, 37, and 42 kg/m2, respectively. The association was stronger in never HRT users than in ever users: RRs were 1.90 (1.57–2.31) and 1.18 (95% CI, 1.06–1.31) with P for interaction ¼ 0.003. In the piecewise model, the RR in never users was 20.70 (8.28–51.84) at BMI 42 kg/m2, compared with never users at normal BMI. The association was not affected by menopausal status (P ¼ 0.34) or histologic type (P ¼ 0.26). Conclusions: HRT use modifies the BMI-endometrial cancer risk association. Impact: These findings support the hypothesis that hyperestrogenia is an important mechanism underlying the BMI-endometrial cancer association, whilst the presence of residual risk in HRT users points to the role of additional systems. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 19(12); 3119–30.